Oct 26 | Michigan

[EvilleIrish]

FEI has us as a 5.7 point winner

 

[IrishSportsDaily]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/mu-TCE2X4p0" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[IrishSportsDaily]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7cu9uQt-_-o" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[IrishSportsDaily]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lHunpWUyVzQ" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[IrishSportsDaily]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2uc2wPFHDKU" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Irish#1]

Comments from scUM fans on the mgoblog site. lol

maize-blueOctober 22nd, 2019 at 1:32 PM ^
Looking forward to the come back from the 14-0 1st quarter deficit.

Drew Henson's BackupOctober 22nd, 2019 at 7:11 AM ^
OP is at least right that we as fans and probably the team need to find an angle that gets us up for the game. Mid season bowl game is as good as I can figure right now.

Harball sized HAILOctober 22nd, 2019 at 7:00 AM ^
I'm not that I agree with you 100% on your police work there Jevablue.
If M plays Notre Shame in week 1 or 2 this year as is customary we lose that game by …………..78 points?
Stand a chance to keep it within 3 scores this weekend.

BoHarbOctober 21st, 2019 at 11:55 PM ^
Once we drop Notre Dame, it's all over for that program. Without us, Notre Dame is just another team floundering in a sea of mediocrity, clamoring to once again be welcomed through the gates of Michigan Stadium, where select heros are extended an opportunity to stand shoulder to shoulder with the Elite, an errand reserved for fcs teams only from hither onward!

 

[Valpodoc85]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/commen...urce=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Hairball tweeting he isn’t going anywhere. Seems meat chicken has some distractions

 

[ThePiombino]

Not sure who else has listened to the OFD podcast, but I suddenly feel A LOT better about this game after doing so lol

DYK: Shea Patterson has apparently never thrown for 300 yards in a game? Blew my mind.

 

[ndbroski]

Once we drop Notre Dame, it's all over for that program. Without us, Notre Dame is just another team floundering in a sea of mediocrity, clamoring to once again be welcomed through the gates of Michigan Stadium, where select heros are extended an opportunity to stand shoulder to shoulder with the Elite, an errand reserved for fcs teams only from hither onward!

This one is hilarious. If there's one thing Michigan does better than Notre Dame, It's self deprecating humor.

 

[EvilleIrish]

SP+ has us as a four point loser.

 

[Irish#1]

Not sure who else has listened to the OFD podcast, but I suddenly feel A LOT better about this game after doing so lol

DYK: Shea Patterson has apparently never thrown for 300 yards in a game? Blew my mind.

Johnson has made 73 free throws in a row. This one will win the game................

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Not sure who else has listened to the OFD podcast, but I suddenly feel A LOT better about this game after doing so lol

DYK: Shea Patterson has apparently never thrown for 300 yards in a game? Blew my mind.

I like the humor if Josh Vowles' articles, I just think the podcasts aren't very good. I've tried. Maybe I'll give this one a listen because I know he hates scUM almost as much as I do.

But given that last point, his opinion is hardly unbiased.

 

[BGIF]

Vegasinsider Consensus

Vegasinsider Consensus

Pick'em!

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Pick'em!

-4 was ridiculous to begin with. Not surprised to see this movement, and we're only halfway through the week.

Wouldn't be surprised to see ND -1 by kickoff.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Pick'em!

Which way will the sharps break?

 

[Wingman Ray]

SP+ has us as a four point loser.

I dont get it.

How does anyone justify this? Based on what? By losing to a PSU team that plays no one with a pulse other than their annual OSU beatdown? How can they possibly compare GA to PSU?

Can someone please justify anything here?

 

[EvilleIrish]

I dont get it.

How does anyone justify this? Based on what? By losing to a PSU team that plays no one with a pulse other than their annual OSU beatdown? How can they possibly compare GA to PSU?

Can someone please justify anything here?

I could be wrong here, but I think there is still some preseason elements to SP+ right now. The formula also doesn't love ND due to our YPP being down as well as giving up a higher YPP.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I dont get it.

How does anyone justify this? Based on what? By losing to a PSU team that plays no one with a pulse other than their annual OSU beatdown? How can they possibly compare GA to PSU?

Can someone please justify anything here?

18 Stripes is publishing a regular Advanced Stats column that has been addressing this issue each week. Here's the blurb from the post-USC article:

Does SP+ hate Notre Dame?

If you’re reading this, chances are you’re familiar with Bill Connelly’s SP+ system. It’s great, Bill is great, and historically it’s been my favorite source of advanced stats as there’s been more transparency into its inner workings and produced a greater wealth of metrics than any other college football rating system.

This year though, SP+ is relatively down on Notre Dame, ranking the Irish 19th after the bye week. This is behind teams like Michigan, Minnesota, and Missouri, and noticeably lower than other advanced rating systems – FEI has ND 11th overall, as does ESPN’s FPI. The Massey-Peabody composite, which takes a bunch of computer ratings (some you know like Sagarin and many you’ve never heard of) and averages things out, has Brian Kelly’s squad at 12th.

There’s a range of reasons for this, but the simplest explanation is that the Irish have yet to dominate a good team in 2019. Last season the Irish had strong yards per play advantages (at least two YPP advantage) against Wake Forest (4.17), Stanford (2.05), Virginia Tech (2.06), Northwestern (3.07) and Syracuse (3.28). This season, again excluding the thrashings of New Mexico and Bowling Green, the Irish haven’t had a yards per play advantage of more than 1.29 yards against Louisville.

While earlier I highlighted the regression in the passing game, this drop-off is coming from both sides of the ball. The defense is giving up 1.22 yards per play more than this sample a season ago, while the offense is averaging 0.78 yards per play less. There are many reasons for this – you could argue this four-game P5 sample is much more difficult than any four regular-season games Book started last season. But this team is yet to combine all the potential it has shown in a single game – uniting the dominating defense from UVA and the rushing attack against USC with the passing attack that was able to move the ball pretty well against a strong UGA defense in Athens or that wore down opponents with its efficiency last season. Ideally, it all comes together this weekend in Ann Arbor.

 

[Wingman Ray]

18 Stripes is publishing a regular Advanced Stats column that has been addressing this issue each week. Here's the blurb from the post-USC article:

And frickin Michigan has done ANYTHING at all this year????

 

[Whiskeyjack]

And frickin Michigan has done ANYTHING at all this year????

That's the thing with advanced metrics. They aren't perfect, but they're sneaky good at exposing strengths and weaknesses that the Eyeball Test and "Who've You Beaten?" don't. Our YPP margin has been trending steadily downward for a while, mostly because we've been able to put together a complete performance against a P5 opponent. So SP+ thinks we're vulnerable to an upset by Michigan. Hopefully it's wrong and the team is finally ready to fire on all cylinders.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

With advanced statistics being relatively down on ND compare to our AP/coaches ranking, where do you all think we would be if the CFP rankings came out today?

I'll start. I'd say 10-11 range.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

BoHarbOctober 21st, 2019 at 11:55 PM ^
Once we drop Notre Dame, it's all over for that program. Without us, Notre Dame is just another team floundering in a sea of mediocrity, clamoring to once again be welcomed through the gates of Michigan Stadium, where select heros are extended an opportunity to stand shoulder to shoulder with the Elite, an errand reserved for fcs teams only from hither onward!

This one is hilarious. If there's one thing Michigan does better than Notre Dame, It's self deprecating humor.

It's even more hilarious because that moron clearly forgot that scUM had a home and home scheduled in 2018 and '19 with Arkansas and dropped them to add us to the schedule. Clearly, scUM wants us on their schedule.

Plus want pansy says they want to drop ND and schedule only FCS teams. No one should every say they want to play FCS teams.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

That's the thing with advanced metrics. They aren't perfect, but they're sneaky good at exposing strengths and weaknesses that the Eyeball Test and "Who've You Beaten?" don't. Our YPP margin has been trending steadily downward for a while, mostly because we've been able to put together a complete performance against a P5 opponent. So SP+ thinks we're vulnerable to an upset by Michigan. Hopefully it's wrong and the team is finally ready to fire on all cylinders.

I am hopeful that Jafar Armstrong's presence will get a piece of that mojo back.

 

[condoms SUCk]

ugggghhhhh.........it's only Wed.........longest week EVER!!!

 

[fightingirish26]

It's even more hilarious because that moron clearly forgot that scUM had a home and home scheduled in 2018 and '19 with Arkansas and dropped them to add us to the schedule. Clearly, scUM wants us on their schedule.

Plus want pansy says they want to drop ND and schedule only FCS teams. No one should every say they want to play FCS teams.

I don't think he forgot anything, I think he was making a joke.

 

[Luckylucci]

Which is somewhat bizarre because it's a little misleading when we compare it to last year. Our YPP differential last season was +1.3 and this year it's +1.9. We avg. 6 to 4.7 versus this year it's 6.9 to 5.

The team averaged 4.5 yds/carry last year while giving up 3.8. Through 6 games we are avg. 5.5 yds/carry and giving up 4. So, we're +1.5 versus +0.7. Rushing TD differential is up from 0.9 to 1.2.

Passing yards last year were, 257.5 to 207.9 for differential of +49.6. This year it's 262 to 195.2 for a differential of +66.8. Passing TD's differential is also up from 1 to 1.9. Book's YPA are basically the same at 8.3 and 8.4.

Also, total offense comparisons. Last year we avg. 440 yds/game to our opponents 347/game. A differential of +93. This season it's 454 to 348 for a differential of +106. Our turnover differential is up substantially. Over a full turnover/game at -1.6 versus -0.3. Our score differential is up dramatically. in 2018 we avg. 31.4 and gave up 18.2. This year it's 39.2 and 16.8.

The negative, Book's comp pct. is down from 68.2 to 63.2. Therefore our differential in comp pct. is down from 7.2 to 4.5. And that could have something to do with First downs being lower 21.3 versus 23.4 and the differential being down as well 1.5 versus 3.5.

I guess just kind of interesting that we seem to be better for the most part over this 6 games compared to the entirety of last years 13 games yet viewed by S&P+ much worse.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Which is somewhat bizarre because it's a little misleading when we compare it to last year. Our YPP differential last season was +1.3 and this year it's +1.9. We avg. 6 to 4.7 versus this year it's 6.9 to 5.

The team averaged 4.5 yds/carry last year while giving up 3.8. Through 6 games we are avg. 5.5 yds/carry and giving up 4. So, we're +1.5 versus +0.7. Rushing TD differential is up from 0.9 to 1.2.

Passing yards last year were, 257.5 to 207.9 for differential of +49.6. This year it's 262 to 195.2 for a differential of +66.8. Passing TD's differential is also up from 1 to 1.9. Book's YPA are basically the same at 8.3 and 8.4.

Also, total offense comparisons. Last year we avg. 440 yds/game to our opponents 347/game. A differential of +93. This season it's 454 to 348 for a differential of +106. Our turnover differential is up substantially. Over a full turnover/game at -1.6 versus -0.3. Our score differential is up dramatically. in 2018 we avg. 31.4 and gave up 18.2. This year it's 39.2 and 16.8.

The negative, Book's comp pct. is down from 68.2 to 63.2. Therefore our differential in comp pct. is down from 7.2 to 4.5. And that could have something to do with First downs being lower 21.3 versus 23.4 and the differential being down as well 1.5 versus 3.5.

I guess just kind of interesting that we seem to be better for the most part over this 6 games compared to the entirety of last years 13 games yet viewed by S&P+ much worse.

ND's only played six games this season and 2 of them were against the #120 and #127 (out of 130) FBS teams (also #s 5, 23, 35, and 63). I suspect the difference is strength of schedule.

 

[Luckylucci]

I'm sure that has a lot to do with it.

 

[BGIF]

Which is somewhat bizarre because it's a little misleading when we compare it to last year. Our YPP differential last season was +1.3 and this year it's +1.9. We avg. 6 to 4.7 versus this year it's 6.9 to 5.

The team averaged 4.5 yds/carry last year while giving up 3.8. Through 6 games we are avg. 5.5 yds/carry and giving up 4. So, we're +1.5 versus +0.7. Rushing TD differential is up from 0.9 to 1.2.

Passing yards last year were, 257.5 to 207.9 for differential of +49.6. This year it's 262 to 195.2 for a differential of +66.8. Passing TD's differential is also up from 1 to 1.9. Book's YPA are basically the same at 8.3 and 8.4.

Also, total offense comparisons. Last year we avg. 440 yds/game to our opponents 347/game. A differential of +93. This season it's 454 to 348 for a differential of +106. Our turnover differential is up substantially. Over a full turnover/game at -1.6 versus -0.3. Our score differential is up dramatically. in 2018 we avg. 31.4 and gave up 18.2. This year it's 39.2 and 16.8.

The negative, Book's comp pct. is down from 68.2 to 63.2. Therefore our differential in comp pct. is down from 7.2 to 4.5. And that could have something to do with First downs being lower 21.3 versus 23.4 and the differential being down as well 1.5 versus 3.5.

I guess just kind of interesting that we seem to be better for the most part over this 6 games compared to the entirety of last years 13 games yet viewed by S&P+ much worse.

ND's only played six games this season and 2 of them were against the #120 and #127 (out of 130) FBS teams (also #s 5, 23, 35, and 63). I suspect the difference is strength of schedule.

As do the loss of Dexter Williams and Miles Boykin.

Jafar isn't Dexter but he was the #1 preseason RB that only been available for a handful of snaps through 6 games.

Likewise Young isn't Boykin (who had a year of eligibility left) BUT he would have been helpful had he been available to take defenders from locking in on Claypool.

To a lesser degree Mack is gone but Kmet is what we expected Mack to be ... but he's only been available for the last 4 games.

Our '19 replacements are not replicas of the departed but had they been available as they are now ND's offensive numbers would be looking better. Kmet would have given Book 6 TDs against BG. Kmet and Young for all 6 games would have improved the passing game and Book's numbers.

On the other side of the ball we not only lost Love, we then lost a number of DBs early this season to injury which probably impacted those numbers as well.

 

[BobbyMac]

I just got a text that says, "ND now the fav, hahahaha"

Dude does it for a living so I guess ND is now the favs. I took the points at opening. Classic pickem for me, 1 point either way. 3 pts either way I'd bet basically everything liquid and whatever I could move on CL/OfferUp by game time.