Nov 9 | Pittsburgh

[NDohio]

This game always scares me. It's the one game a year that should be a blowout and never is. For some reason I feel a calm about it this year.

ND 31
Mark Mays 10

 

[rikkitikki08]

Yes you can. That is what statistics are used for. To analyze trends. If ND were to blow out Pitt, it would be a statistical anomaly. ND is giving no more than 5 points on the current lines. I would bet ND wins by 6.

ND 30
Pitt 24

See that ridiculous, im sorry you cant say that and believe 5,6,7 years ago has any bearing on this game what so ever

 

[Cackalacky]

See that ridiculous, im sorry you cant say that and believe 5,6,7 years ago has any bearing on this game what so ever

Math is not ridiculous. It is one of the few things that we can represent some modicum of "reliability" on.

For example:
Pitt since 2007 is averaging roughly 26 points per game offensively and is giving up roughly 21 points per game. The Irish are also averaging roughly 26 points per game offensively since 2007 including 16 ppg in 2007. ND is averaging 22 ppg defensively.

So over the last 7 years Pitt and ND are equal on both sides of the ball in ppg. This is one example. Not to mention that the margin of victory is very low and there have been 2 OT games.

2013 FEI
ND SOS Rank =39
Pitt SOS Rank = 14

ND OFEI Rank = 14
Pitt OFEI Rank = 79

ND DFEI = 31
Pitt DFEI = 38

The 5 year PFEI
ND = 0.174
Pitt =0.130

69.0% PWE :: Notre Dame 30, PITTSBURGH 18 (This does not take into account our current injuries and loss of defensive starters)

Everything points to a tight game (<7 points MOV in my opinion). Particularly what Pitt has done against a stronger schedule from an efficiency stand point.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Math is not ridiculous. It is one of the few things that we can represent some modicum of "reliability" on.

For example:
Pitt since 2007 is averaging roughly 26 points per game offensively and is giving up roughly 21 points per game. The Irish are also averaging roughly 26 points per game offensively since 2007 including 16 ppg in 2007. ND is averaging 22 ppg defensively.

So over the last 7 years Pitt and ND are equal on both sides of the ball in ppg. This is one example. Not to mention that the margin of victory is very low and there have been 2 OT games.

2013 FEI
ND SOS Rank =39
Pitt SOS Rank = 14

ND OFEI Rank = 14
Pitt OFEI Rank = 79

ND DFEI = 31
Pitt DFEI = 38

The 5 year PFEI
ND = 0.174
Pitt =0.130

69.0% PWE :: Notre Dame 30, PITTSBURGH 18 (This does not take into account our current injuries and loss of defensive starters)

Everything points to a tight game (<7 points MOV in my opinion). Particularly what Pitt has done against a stronger schedule from an efficiency stand point.

Wow! Gump, you are a genius!

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/NoptofKbQ04" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Grahambo]

Not sure if this stat was posted somewhere but on twitter someone said Tuitt, Nix, and Day have played together for a grand total of 13 plays which produced 23 yards and 2 sacks.

 

[dublinirish]

Not sure if this stat was posted somewhere but on twitter someone said Tuitt, Nix, and Day have played together for a grand total of 13 plays which produced 23 yards and 2 sacks.

FAAACK thats an amazing stat. Probably 95% of those were in the temple game right?

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Math is not ridiculous. It is one of the few things that we can represent some modicum of "reliability" on.

For example:
Pitt since 2007 is averaging roughly 26 points per game offensively and is giving up roughly 21 points per game. The Irish are also averaging roughly 26 points per game offensively since 2007 including 16 ppg in 2007. ND is averaging 22 ppg defensively.

So over the last 7 years Pitt and ND are equal on both sides of the ball in ppg. This is one example. Not to mention that the margin of victory is very low and there have been 2 OT games.

2013 FEI
ND SOS Rank =39
Pitt SOS Rank = 14

ND OFEI Rank = 14
Pitt OFEI Rank = 79

ND DFEI = 31
Pitt DFEI = 38

The 5 year PFEI
ND = 0.174
Pitt =0.130

69.0% PWE :: Notre Dame 30, PITTSBURGH 18 (This does not take into account our current injuries and loss of defensive starters)

Everything points to a tight game (<7 points MOV in my opinion). Particularly what Pitt has done against a stronger schedule from an efficiency stand point.

I believe his point is that 7 years ago has no bearing on this year because the players are all different and the coaching staffs are almost entirely different. What happened in 2007 doesn't inform us about anything that can/will take place on the field this Saturday.

 

[Cackalacky]

I believe his point is that 7 years ago has no bearing on this year because the players are all different and the coaching staffs are almost entirely different. What happened in 2007 doesn't inform us about anything that can/will take place on the field this Saturday.

I understand what he is saying. And I am saying his point is an eye test and that stats mean more than what he thinks.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

It's not an eye test. It's objective, empirically derived data. Your statistics don't acquire a special status by virtue of expression in number form.

In the absence of evidence to the contrary, my intuitive leaning is that data from college football games from 5, 6, 7 years ago will not improve our ability to forecast results of future ganes.

 

[ulukinatme]

People saying ND has no shot of blowing pitt out because of the score of past seasons? You cant pull stats from 7 years ago and assume they some how can correlate to what this game will bring.

ND 28
PITT 14

Maybe this is a different team than 7 years ago, but so is Pitt...yet theres only one outlier in the last 10 meetings or so where one team DIDN'T win by one score or less. That's a pretty damn long track record there to uphold. That lone game where it was more than one score also came due to a dramatic shift in coaching (Offensively minded Weis) and was the first game of the year, while I think the rest of the games occurred later in September or November mostly.

You're right, it's very possible that one team or the other could blow the other one out tomorrow, but theres certainly a trend the last 10 years. In some games between certain opponents you can't look at what one team or the other has done in a given year. Occasionally you can look at a rivalry and say "It's anyone game, any year." Pitt has kind of become one of those games. It's been a close matchup for some time now, for whatever reason. I like our chances, but I expect Pitt will come in with a chip on their shoulder and will play us close again.

 

[WakeUpEchoes]

My prediction, we will play stupid football and Bob Diaco will do everything in his power to make Tom Savage look like the Heisman front runner. ND will squeak out a win on a Brindza field goal.

+1.

 

[irishfan]

I just think they play to our strengths with their pro-style (boring) offense and QB who lacks mobility. My guess is something like 30-13 but this team loves proving me wrong.

 

[Cackalacky]

It's not an eye test. It's objective, empirically derived data. Your statistics don't acquire a special status by virtue of expression in number form.

In the absence of evidence to the contrary, my intuitive leaning is that data from college football games from 5, 6, 7 years ago will not improve our ability to forecast results of future ganes.

This entire post contradicts itself. I am not leaning on just data from 5-7 years either. The FEI stats are for this year, plus the 5 year efficiency ratings. Sure ND could blow out Pitt or Pitt could blow out our injured defense and poor tackling. The trends state otherwise. There is a thing called confidence level or probability of occurrence. Those things carry weight predicting outcomes. That does not imply they will come to pass. Just the trends look that way.

 

[dublinirish]

remember the 1st Quarter of the FSU game Pitt looked like world beaters and the crowd as electric, ND will have to ride the storm but im hoping Half Time Adjustments (C) will get the job done in the end.

 

[ThePiombino]

remember the 1st Quarter of the FSU game Pitt looked like world beaters and the crowd as electric, ND will have to ride the storm but im hoping Half Time Adjustments (C) will get the job done in the end.

Or we can come out and curb stomp them on the first drive and send a message.

 

[Kanye West]

Or we can come out and curb stomp them on the first drive and send a message.

When have we done that this year?

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

This entire post contradicts itself. I am not leaning on just data from 5-7 years either. The FEI stats are for this year, plus the 5 year efficiency ratings. Sure ND could blow out Pitt or Pitt could blow out our injured defense and poor tackling. The trends state otherwise. There is a thing called confidence level or probability of occurrence. Those things carry weight predicting outcomes. That does not imply they will come to pass. Just the trends look that way.

How is it contradictory?

I know you're not just using data from 5-7 years ago. I am strongly skeptical those years should be included in the data set at all. I suppose if that's what FEI uses for their modeling there must be some level of QC there (as in, it's non-arbitrary and involves weighting based on positive correlation). I am aware of confidence intervals. Your posts presume they are appropriately addressed. Do you have any idea how FEI addresses them or the methodology for incorporating or excluding data sets?

 

[Cackalacky]

People saying ND has no shot of blowing pitt out because of the score of past seasons? You cant pull stats from 7 years ago and assume they some how can correlate to what this game will bring.

ND 28
PITT 14

I disagreed with this and stated so below. For many reasons I value statistics. Others do to as it is the source of a billion dollar industry in gambling.

Yes you can. That is what statistics are used for. To analyze trends. If ND were to blow out Pitt, it would be a statistical anomaly. ND is giving no more than 5 points on the current lines. I would bet ND wins by 6.

ND 30
Pitt 24

For many reasons and according to people who know much more about predicting outcomes, the spread for this game is 4-5 roughly. This is basically the spread of the games for the last 5 years.

See that ridiculous, im sorry you cant say that and believe 5,6,7 years ago has any bearing on this game what so ever

What happened in the games 5,6,7 years ago? Those games don't bear directly on this game, however he is dismissive of historical stats and trends which I provide below.This includes intangibles such as "team identity" tendencies, the culture of the program...

Math is not ridiculous. It is one of the few things that we can represent some modicum of "reliability" on.

For example:
Pitt since 2007 is averaging roughly 26 points per game offensively and is giving up roughly 21 points per game. The Irish are also averaging roughly 26 points per game offensively since 2007 including 16 ppg in 2007. ND is averaging 22 ppg defensively.

So over the last 7 years Pitt and ND are equal on both sides of the ball in ppg. This is one example. Not to mention that the margin of victory is very low and there have been 2 OT games.

2013 FEI
ND SOS Rank =39
Pitt SOS Rank = 14

ND OFEI Rank = 14
Pitt OFEI Rank = 79

ND DFEI = 31
Pitt DFEI = 38

The 5 year PFEI
ND = 0.174
Pitt =0.130

69.0% PWE :: Notre Dame 30, PITTSBURGH 18 (This does not take into account our current injuries and loss of defensive starters)

Everything points to a tight game (<7 points MOV in my opinion). Particularly what Pitt has done against a stronger schedule from an efficiency stand point.

My conclusion of why one can rely on math to support an opinion is bolded above.

I believe his point is that 7 years ago has no bearing on this year because the players are all different and the coaching staffs are almost entirely different. What happened in 2007 doesn't inform us about anything that can/will take place on the field this Saturday.

You echo his sentiment and do not address my point.

I understand what he is saying. And I am saying his point is an eye test and that stats mean more than what he thinks.

He provides no evidence other than saying no one can predict the outcome of the game. I agree. I would be rich if I could. His dismissive attitude of the weight of historical trends and stats plus the current performance of both teams are used to set the money making structure of a billion dollar industry.

It's not an eye test. It's objective, empirically derived data. Your statistics don't acquire a special status by virtue of expression in number form.

In the absence of evidence to the contrary, my intuitive leaning is that data from college football games from 5, 6, 7 years ago will not improve our ability to forecast results of future games.

Maybe I misunderstood this statement? I don't see any objective, empirically derived data except that which I provided. Statistics do have a wonderful virtue of having the ability to be applied in a number of ways to predict behavior. So it is contradictory in that what rikkitikki said did not provide any evidence for his opinion and was dismissive of the historical trends plus the current trends as provided by professionals who make their living off of analyzing data. It is an eyeball test in the absence of evidence.

How is it contradictory?

I know you're not just using data from 5-7 years ago. I am strongly skeptical those years should be included in the data set at all. I suppose if that's what FEI uses for their modeling there must be some level of QC there (as in, it's non-arbitrary and involves weighting based on positive correlation). I am aware of confidence intervals. Your posts presume they are appropriately addressed. Do you have any idea how FEI addresses them or the methodology for incorporating or excluding data sets?

"The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.
Game Efficiency (GE) is the composite possession-by-possession efficiency of a team over the course of a game, a measurement of the success of its offensive, defensive, and special teams units’ essential goals: to maximize the team’s own scoring opportunities and to minimize those of its opponent. FEI ratings take the season-long GE data and adjust for opponent, placing special emphasis on quality performance against good teams, win or lose.
Other definitions:
SOS Pvs: Strength of schedule based on the likelihood of an elite team going undefeated against the given team's schedule to date.
SOS Fut: Strength of schedule based on the likelihood of an elite team going undefeated against the given team's remaining schedule.
FBS MW: Mean Wins, the average number of games a team with the given FEI rating would be expected to win against its entire schedule.
FBS RMW: Remaining Mean Wins, the average number of games a team with the given FEI rating would be expected to win against its remaining schedule.
OFEI: Offensive FEI, the opponent-adjusted efficiency of the given team's offense.
DFEI: Defensive FEI, the opponent-adjusted efficiency of the given team's defense."

The stats I provided are adjusted and weighted accordingly and present a well rounded picture of each teams current performance on the field, as well as historically.

This plus a cursory analysis of the historical stats from each team show that the teams are performing similar to the last 5 years for whatever reason. I readily admit anything could happen (ala USF game). I hope that we kick seven shades of shits out of Pitt, I just have confidence that it will be a close game.

 

[ulukinatme]

Whelp, that about says it

 

[ACamp1900]

This team may very well be the worst Pitt team we've seen in years... I am frankly over the squeaking games out against far inferior opponents crap… at some point ND has got to take charge of a game early, on law of averages alone… they are far from the best team in cfb but they are far from a team that should be absolutely incapable of taking a game early. I say they break that streak this weekend, get out in front by two scores in the first Q and never look back.

If Pitt doesn’t want to keep hearing that ND fight song they’ve been playing all week, I suggest they bring ear plugs…

 

[NDohio]

This team may very well be the worst Pitt team we've seen in years... I am frankly over the squeaking games out against far inferior opponents crap… at some point ND is has got to take charge of a game early, on law of averages alone… they are far from the best team in cfb but they are far from a team that should be absolutely incapable of taking a game early. I say they break that streak this weekend, get out in front by two scores in the first Q and never look back.

If Pitt doesn’t want to keep hearing that ND fight song they’ve been playing all week, I suggest they bring ear plugs…

I agree completely. But the fact that you are stating it has me a bit concerned.

 

[ulukinatme]

I agree completely. But the fact that you are stating it has me a bit concerned.

Good point. Oregon was confidant in their chances of beating Stanford last night too. For 3 1/2 quarters they were absolutely destroyed.

 

[ACamp1900]

I agree completely. But the fact that you are stating it has me a bit concerned.

Me too, man, never trust that freakin clown....

 

[Cackalacky]

This team may very well be the worst Pitt team we've seen in years... I am frankly over the squeaking games out against far inferior opponents crap… at some point ND has got to take charge of a game early, on law of averages alone… they are far from the best team in cfb but they are far from a team that should be absolutely incapable of taking a game early. I say they break that streak this weekend, get out in front by two scores in the first Q and never look back.

If Pitt doesn’t want to keep hearing that ND fight song they’ve been playing all week, I suggest they bring ear plugs…

Every game this season, ND has struggled to get going. I hope you are right.

 

[Grahambo]

Every game this season, ND has struggled to get going. I hope you are right.

First game where Folston will be a factor early. Hopefully that changes those slow starts

 

[Bogtrotter07]

First game where Folston will be a factor early. Hopefully that changes those slow starts

Not Temple. Rumor has it in that game they lost the scripted play list. Tommy just went out and winged it.

First game where Folston will be a factor early. Hopefully that changes those slow starts

I think that is the most important point that I have heard. If they get a little offensive confidence, on the ground, that ought to do wonders. And if the ground works, I don't think Pitts defensive backs are going to be able to play the run, and play with our wide outs. Also, I just can't see Pitt's linebackers matching up with Troy and Ben. Talk about a mismatch! There is no reason we shouldn't use play action to freeze their pass rush, and help with the nightmare of 270 lb Tight ends over slower 220 lb linebackers, that are a half a foot shorter, too!

Please tell me where I am wrong.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Take away Pitt's two big playmaker WRs and the Irish win easily.

 

[Rudy89]

Will web age some of our studs on D back we could use them this week.

Edit: *will we get I hate iphone autocorrect.!

 

[ACamp1900]

Please tell me where I am wrong.

Quoting the same post twice in one response is pretty wrong...

 

[Cackalacky]

Take away Pitt's two big playmaker WRs and the Irish win easily.

You do know how ND plays games right? We make superstars of the opposing team each week.