Nov 17 | Syracuse

[WaveDomer]

Two wins away from college playoffs and we're talking scenarios of how to get into NYE6 games. Let's go. Championship or bust.

“Well then I guess there’s only one thing left to do.”

 

[NDty9]

Decent Listen...

Decent Listen...

I checked these two guys out when they did a Podcast before the Northwestern game... They are SEC guys but seem to be very unbiased.

They are NOT trusting Cuse, mainly based on their AWFUL schedule so far. However, their "Computer Model" calls it Nd - 38 - Cuse 33

Worth a listen though if you have some time (or are bored haha).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ndXKZHnOSE

 

[ab2cmiller]

I checked these two guys out when they did a Podcast before the Northwestern game... They are SEC guys but seem to be very unbiased.

They are NOT trusting Cuse, mainly based on their AWFUL schedule so far. However, their "Computer Model" calls it Nd - 38 - Cuse 33

Worth a listen though if you have some time (or are bored haha).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ndXKZHnOSE

Listening/watching it right now. They seem like reasonable guys, but they lose so credibility when they flash the graphic of Syracuse's schedule of opponents and the scores they have are not Syracuse's scores, they are Notre Dame's scores against their opponents.

 

[BobbyMac]

What's funny is they brag about how spot on the model usually is... and was in predicting the ND-NW game (It called for 31-20 I believe) and then they both go against the 38-33 ND-Cuse prediction and call for scores of 41-17 & 40ish - 24. And I'm thinking along those lines only bigger... 48-27.

 

[shortynd01]

Possibly the last Shamrock series game....
There will be no Shamrock Series game for #NotreDame in 2019, and the annual commitment beyond that is now gone. So why are the Irish playing Syracuse in New York this Saturday instead of Notre Dame Stadium?
https://t.co/TQYJOIRo48

 

[IrishFanJMercy]

If Mack plays like he did this past week the rest of the week it just adds another weapon. Not sure why we didn't see any Michael Young this past week or kevin Austin or Cole Klmet?

 

[NDty9]

Listening/watching it right now. They seem like reasonable guys, but they lose so credibility when they flash the graphic of Syracuse's schedule of opponents and the scores they have are not Syracuse's scores, they are Notre Dame's scores against their opponents.

Haha that got me too. Quite the botch, but overall pretty reasonable guys like you said, and seem to be analyzing things properly.

 

[NDty9]

What's funny is they brag about how spot on the model usually is... and was in predicting the ND-NW game (It called for 31-20 I believe) and then they both go against the 38-33 ND-Cuse prediction and call for scores of 41-17 & 40ish - 24. And I'm thinking along those lines only bigger... 48-27.

I hear ya. They do brag about how accurate the module is, quite a bit. I do however like to see that they can see past it sometimes, and give their feel, based on a lot of factors. I hope they are right with their gut, and even more so, I hope you are!

May I ask what makes you so confident Crusader? (im always looking for help building my own confidence in our beloved IRISH.)

 

[calvegas04]

Possibly the last Shamrock series game....
There will be no Shamrock Series game for #NotreDame in 2019, and the annual commitment beyond that is now gone.
https://t.co/TQYJOIRo48

From the article you posted

"The only announced future Shamrock Series games are back-to-back clashes with Wisconsin — in 2020 (Green Bay, Wis.) and 2021 (Chicago)."

 

[Crazy Balki]

Possibly the last Shamrock series game....
There will be no Shamrock Series game for #NotreDame in 2019, and the annual commitment beyond that is now gone. So why are the Irish playing Syracuse in New York this Saturday instead of Notre Dame Stadium?
https://t.co/TQYJOIRo48

I believe there was an agreement between the athletic departments that Syracuse would move their home game in 2016 to Meadowlands and in exchange, ND would move their home game in 2018 to the Bronx.

 

[calvegas04]

If Mack plays like he did this past week the rest of the week it just adds another weapon. Not sure why we didn't see any Michael Young this past week or kevin Austin or Cole Klmet?

If you watched the game, which im not sure if you did or not biased on your rage post in the gameday thread. But Klmet was out there looking for passes by BW that were thrown no where near him

 

[BobbyMac]

I hear ya. They do brag about how accurate the module is, quite a bit. I do however like to see that they can see past it sometimes, and give their feel, based on a lot of factors. I hope they are right with their gut, and even more so, I hope you are!

May I ask what makes you so confident Crusader? (im always looking for help building my own confidence in our beloved IRISH.)

Syracuse doesn't take anything away, they score a lot and then give the ball back. So they have to outscore you. That's worked fine for their bad schedule but ND can run and pass, does it consistently and efficiently against good D's... and scores.

I think Lea's D is the kind of D that will slow them down enough to keep them @ 30ish and ND scores a lot because Book's efficient & they'll get more possessions.

 

[ab2cmiller]

I'm assuming the reason for their computer model overestimating Syracuse's point total, probably has a lot to do with turnover margin in past games. Syracuse is tied for 4th in the country in turnover margin per game. So they end up scoring more points on fewer yards than most teams. Sounds like the computer model tries to estimate the number of yards they think they will get against ND and then try to draw some kind of correlation to past point totals and yards totals from prior games.

If Book plays and if we don't lose the turnover margin, we win by at least two touchdowns.

 

[NDty9]

Syracuse doesn't take anything away, they score a lot and then give the ball back. So they have to outscore you. That's worked fine for their bad schedule but ND can run and pass, does it consistently and efficiently against good D's... and scores.

I think Lea's D is the kind of D that will slow them down enough to keep them @ 30ish and ND scores a lot because Book's efficient & they'll get more possessions.

I hear ya... like it

Do you agree with what they said about Michigan struggling with a Cuse's offense more than ND will, because of our strong pass Defense? If true, i love that!

 

[NDty9]

I'm assuming the reason for their computer model overestimating Syracuse's point total, probably has a lot to do with turnover margin in past games. Syracuse is tied for 4th in the country in turnover margin per game. So they end up scoring more points on fewer yards than most teams. Sounds like the computer model tries to estimate the number of yards they think they will get against ND and then try to draw some kind of correlation to past point totals and yards totals from prior games.

If Book plays and if we don't lose the turnover margin, we win by at least two touchdowns.

This makes a lot of sense, and based on Cuse's awful schedule, those numbers would be padded QUITE A BIT!.... so i hope you are right!

 

[BobbyMac]

I hear ya... like it

Do you agree with what they said about Michigan struggling with a Cuse's offense more than ND will, because of our strong pass Defense? If true, i love that!

No. I think MI smothers them too. Statistically, MI's pass D is better than ND's. Hill, Long and Watson are just as good, it not a lil better, than ND's Top 3 CB's.

 

[ab2cmiller]

No. I think MI smothers them too. Statistically, MI's pass D is better than ND's. Hill, Long and Watson are just as good, it not a lil better, than ND's Top 3 CB's.

That's only because they have been taught the fine art of holding wide receivers. They basically dare the ref's to call it and if they do call it on one play, they are betting that they won't continue to call it. It's not so blatant that it absolutely has to be called, but it's just enough that it could be called.

 

[irish4ever]

I believe there was an agreement between the athletic departments that Syracuse would move their home game in 2016 to Meadowlands and in exchange, ND would move their home game in 2018 to the Bronx.

So does Syracuse get just a standard allotment of "visitor" tickets (5,000?) for this Sat. at Yankee stadium?

 

[NDty9]

No. I think MI smothers them too. Statistically, MI's pass D is better than ND's. Hill, Long and Watson are just as good, it not a lil better, than ND's Top 3 CB's.

As long as we both smother them, lol,... ill take it!

Thanks for your input

 

[BobbyMac]

So does Syracuse get just a standard allotment of "visitor" tickets (5,000?) for this Sat. at Yankee stadium?

I don't think so. I'm sure Swarbrick gave them more for this game in exchange for more in '16 when it was Cuse's home game at MetLife. I seem to remember both my ND Clubs in Orange County and Phoenix having access to lots of tickets. Stadium was only 3/4 full but ND was only 1-3 at that point and demand was not high.

 

[EvilleIrish]

Book is good to go, per BK presser

 

[BobbyMac]

Possibly the last Shamrock series game....
There will be no Shamrock Series game for #NotreDame in 2019, and the annual commitment beyond that is now gone. So why are the Irish playing Syracuse in New York this Saturday instead of Notre Dame Stadium?
https://t.co/TQYJOIRo48

So according to this ^^^

The agreement to move the Syracuse game to NY was in conjunction with a 2012 contract moving not just the 2016 game @Cuse to MetLife but the 2014 @Cuse game they played their also. This 5 game agreement pre-dates ND's agreement with the ACC. So Cuse got 2 home games at MetLife and ND got 1 home game in Yankee Stadium. Had ND played this game at home, they probably had to pay out a change of condition clause which they didn't feel was worth it since playing in Yankee Stadium is a home a way from home game.

The next ND vs Cuse game is @Cuse in 2022 followed by a couple of highly unusual back to back ND home games in '25 & '26. This sounds like it has to do with finalizing the terms of the 2012, 5 game contract.

 

[IrishLax]

So according to this ^^^

The agreement to move the Syracuse game to NY was in conjunction with a 2012 contract moving not just the 2016 game @Cuse to MetLife but the 2014 @Cuse game they played their also. This 5 game agreement pre-dates ND's agreement with the ACC. So Cuse got 2 home games at MetLife and ND got 1 home game in Yankee Stadium. Had ND played this game at home, they probably had to pay out a change of condition clause which they didn't feel was worth it since playing in Yankee Stadium is a home a way from home game.

The next ND vs Cuse game is @Cuse in 2022 followed by a couple of highly unusual back to back ND home games in '25 & '26. This sounds like it has to do with finalizing the terms of the 2012, 5 game contract.

Seems like way less of a fireable offense for Swarbrick if this is the case. Similar "hands tied" situation to when ND couldn't get out of a trip to Arizona State in 2014.

 

[IrishLion]

I think JS said something recently where they'd like to have 2 years with SS games, then the third year is a break.

Also, Book is for sure back?

“Yeah, we weren't out on the field practicing. He had his own workouts yesterday, but he felt good. He went through all of the workouts, threw the ball, he was in the weight room. He'll practice today for the first time… We're pretty clear that he's ready to play.”

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Syracuse offense ranked #11 total yards per game against ND defense ranked #21 total yards per game. Conversely, ND offense ranked #24 total yards per game against Syracuse defense ranked #99 per game. Without miscues, ND's offense should not have trouble moving the ball. HOPEFULLY though, the D will be there to work their magic and "control" Syracuse's offense and scoring opportunities!

The Irish are soooo close, yet so far away from fulfilling one helluva regular season slate!

If anyone already got into this, my apologies, I'm catching up from a few days absence. Got Veterans day off, yay Banking.

I prefer to look at S&P+ rather than just the macro view of total off/def, etc. and this is even more in the Irish's favor.

ND is ranked 6th in S&P+, #27 offense (this is reflective of 4 starts by BW, not sure what we are if we only extract the games Book started), #3 Defense, #54 ST.

'Cuse: S&P+ Rank: #39, #39 offense, #68 Defense, #1 ST.

Their ranking is inflated by the top ST unit (which is slightly concerning given our struggles on that unit, but hard to win by ST alone), and their offense is slightly overrated due to the # of poor defenses they've played.

I like our chances on paper FWIW. But the game is played on the field, and I'd feel even better if ol' Swarbrick didn't chase a buck and move it to Yankee Stadium from the shadows of TD Jesus.

I like ND; may be a VT type game; close first half, pull away in the second.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I think the big question is would we rather have Book start if he is say 80% healthy or Wimbush at 100%?

The last thing I want is for us to start Book because we are nervous and then he re-injures himself and we have to change the gameplan mid-game.

I would rather have Book at 80% because he took his injury first half against Northwestern and played lights out in the second half.

Agreed in the bold; I think this is the bigger of the two remaining games, and hypothetically speaking, say Book got hurt and couldn't go against USC....BW has a pretty good past against the Trojans. Arguably his best game of his career.

Not the same team, per se, but I'm sure it would instill further confidence in our 14-3 career "backup" QB should we have to call upon him.

 

[BobbyMac]

If anyone already got into this, my apologies, I'm catching up from a few days absence. Got Veterans day off, yay Banking.

I prefer to look at S&P+ rather than just the macro view of total off/def, etc. and this is even more in the Irish's favor.

ND is ranked 6th in S&P+, #27 offense (this is reflective of 4 starts by BW, not sure what we are if we only extract the games Book started), #3 Defense, #54 ST.

'Cuse: S&P+ Rank: #39, #39 offense, #68 Defense, #1 ST.

Their ranking is inflated by the top ST unit (which is slightly concerning given our struggles on that unit, but hard to win by ST alone), and their offense is slightly overrated due to the # of poor defenses they've played.

I like our chances on paper FWIW. But the game is played on the field, and I'd feel even better if ol' Swarbrick didn't chase a buck and move it to Yankee Stadium from the shadows of TD Jesus.

I like ND; may be a VT type game; close first half, pull away in the second.

#1 in ST... Calling the bookie and demanding a refund.

In regards to 'ol Swarbrick, read the above and you'll see what was done and why. Makes a lot of sense now.

 

[EvilleIrish]

I think JS said something recently where they'd like to have 2 years with SS games, then the third year is a break.

Also, Book is for sure back?

“Yeah, we weren't out on the field practicing. He had his own workouts yesterday, but he felt good. He went through all of the workouts, threw the ball, he was in the weight room. He'll practice today for the first time… We're pretty clear that he's ready to play.”

Don't think that's definitive? I guess he did kind of leave the door open.

 

[Dizzyphil]

Don't think that's definitive? I guess he did kind of leave the door open.

Kind of like, "We are 100% certain, that we are 75% correct that there is an 80% chance Book is at 90% healthy to play."

 

[IrishLax]

If anyone already got into this, my apologies, I'm catching up from a few days absence. Got Veterans day off, yay Banking.

I prefer to look at S&P+ rather than just the macro view of total off/def, etc. and this is even more in the Irish's favor.

ND is ranked 6th in S&P+, #27 offense (this is reflective of 4 starts by BW, not sure what we are if we only extract the games Book started), #3 Defense, #54 ST.

'Cuse: S&P+ Rank: #39, #39 offense, #68 Defense, #1 ST.

Their ranking is inflated by the top ST unit (which is slightly concerning given our struggles on that unit, but hard to win by ST alone), and their offense is slightly overrated due to the # of poor defenses they've played.

I like our chances on paper FWIW. But the game is played on the field, and I'd feel even better if ol' Swarbrick didn't chase a buck and move it to Yankee Stadium from the shadows of TD Jesus.

I like ND; may be a VT type game; close first half, pull away in the second.

The crazy thing to me is that while people love their offense and Dungey their stats are more a product of tempo than efficiency. They're not top 25 in adjusted offense, and Dungey is #52 in QBR. Book, for comparison, is 8th. The reason they put up points is tempo + turnovers + special teams... not a super-skilled, super-potent offense. If this game was at home I'd pick us to win handily.