Not Sure I Buy the Narratives

[BleedBlueGold]

This is why the narrative exists. This is why we don't get the benefit of the doubt.

Notre Dame in BCS/NY6/CFP games last 25 years ...

'01 Fiesta: L 41-9 to Oregon State.
'06 Fiesta: L 34-20 to Ohio State.
'07 Sugar: L 41-14 to LSU.
'13 BCS title game: L 42-14 to Bama.
'16 Fiesta: L 44-28 to Ohio State.
'18 CFP: L 30-3 to Clemson.

Reps.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Not Sure I Buy the Narratives

I think 2020 ND would easily beat 2012, if that answers your question.

The issue is 2020 Ohio State would easily beat 2012 Ohio State, 2020 Alabama would easily beat 2012 Alabama, 2020 Clem.....

You get the point. We are much better than a decade ago, but the real question is have we closed the gap at all with the football factories?

Part of the problem is our deficiencies are magnified by these teams because we play them in CFP or other bowl games.

Being outgunned, and going up against Dabo, Meyer, and Saban who have a month to prepare just for YOU isnt going to end well for many people.

I am fairly certain we could catch one of these teams in a regular season game, but its game over, DOA in a post season game


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Free Manera]

ND recruits around top 8-10 every year. They are a top 8-10 team every year. It's not a coincidence.

Clemson, Bama, and OSU literally recruit as many 5 stars as ND recruits 4 stars. That's all folks. How many times do we need to see NFL dudes crush good college players before we admit that is the entire issue?

 

[tussin]

That game was incredibly disappointing, and it boils down to two primary issues:
1. Over a three game sample size, it's extremely clear that this offensive line is orders of magnitude worse without Jarrett Patterson. The OL was the #1 reason for offensive success, and it's just not playing at the same level. This not only killed ND's rushing attack for the third straight week, it is unlikely to get fixed until next season.
2. ND doesn't have a big boy passing game like you see at Alabama, Clemson, or Florida. They don't have an "uncoverable" WR or a top draft pick QB, and now they're also giving up more pressure.

This is why I do not understand why ND didn’t even make a good faith effort to see what they could get out of Jordan Johnson this year (or Watts or anyone underclass). I understand that Bennet and Javon have ultimately had good years, but we knew there was going to be a night where we needed to have the ability to put pressure on the back end of a good defense. It was inevitable.

That said, maybe it ultimately doesn’t matter because Book isn’t a QB who could consistently make deep throws regardless of who is at WR.

 

[BabyIrish]

Realistically, it "could have" been 17-17 at halftime because ND started the game with three quality drives. Given the offensive implosion after those three drives, there is a zero percent chance ND was ultimately going to win the game. Best case scenario would've been something like a close loss 30-24 or 27-24.

In reality... and reality is a bitch sometimes... the issue is that ND's offense is so flawed without a consistent running game that they got held to 3 points until garbage time. ND isn't great at stretching the field vertically, so if they can't run the ball then their entire passing game becomes some Northwestern-style pop gun attack which is way too easy for a defense like Clemson's to disrupt.

1. I personally think if we do get 17 that the game goes differently. We play loose like we did the first game. Instead we play tight and it doesn’t go well.

2. My one complaint of the staff this year has not being able to get the athletes on the field at the WR position. So I agree with you.

 

[BabyIrish]

I think this response shows how much of thin line ND operates on.

Every team operates on a thin line when you play a top 5 team. Clemson got blown out by LSU last year. Bama got blown out two years ago to Clemson.

Heck you could make the argument that in 88 we operated on a thin line against Miami. They had 6 turnovers. You take away half of those and they boat race us. In 93 we were close to boat racing FSU.

I don’t think it’s in any differently for other top teams.

 

[IrishTusker]

I think 2020 ND would easily beat 2012, if that answers your question.

My question is are we closer to winning a championship? The answer seems to be no.

 

[NDRock]

ND recruits around top 8-10 every year. They are a top 8-10 team every year. It's not a coincidence.

Clemson, Bama, and OSU literally recruit as many 5 stars as ND recruits 4 stars. That's all folks. How many times do we need to see NFL dudes crush good college players before we admit that is the entire issue?

Unfortunately there is a lot of truth to this. Using 247 team talent composition (it goes back to 2015), teams with more 5* players are 11-3 against their opponents in the playoffs. The only time a team with less 5* players won a semifinal game was last year’s Clemson vs Ohio State. The overall champion has averaged just over ten 5* players on their roster. No team has won a playoff game with less than 4. We’ve had between 0-2 during this timeframe. The other teams that had that few, Oklahoma twice, Michigan State, Washington, and us in 2018. Those teams were out scored 183-75

You ever go to a BC (or similar) message board after we beat them? They inevitably talk about the talent disparity between them and us. College football is more like Formula 1 than the NFL.

 

[irishff1014]

My question is are we closer to winning a championship? The answer seems to be no.

We are a top 6-8 team which is way better than we were. But we are not top 3. We are closer to where we were but we still aren’t in the position to win the big one.

 

[SouthSideChiDomer]

My question is are we closer to winning a championship? The answer seems to be no.

Aside from everything else, we are probably further away if just because the playoff. Beating a Alabama or Clemson or Ohio State in one game is difficult, but it could happen. But now we have to beat two of those teams to win it all? That might just be too much. I guess its still possible if we eventually get to their talent level or we have a crazy magical season like LSU last year, but right now, I can't predict either of those things happening in the near future, so I would say we are further away from a championship.

 

[NDPhilly]

Hypothetically, an offense led by Tyler Buchner, Chris Tyree, Jordan Johnson, Lorenzo Styles, Deon Colzie, and Michael Mayer has more offensive firepower than any ND Offense since Clausen, Tate, Floyd, Rudolph + a better OL. We're still building, as painful as it is. Let's see where we are in a few more years.

 

[NDRock]

Hypothetically, an offense led by Tyler Buchner, Chris Tyree, Jordan Johnson, Lorenzo Styles, Deon Colzie, and Michael Mayer has more offensive firepower than any ND Offense since Clausen, Tate, Floyd, Rudolph + a better OL. We're still building, as painful as it is. Let's see where we are in a few more years.

Agree. Need to keep recruiting those type guys because chances are they won’t all work out. Feel like we’re on the right track.

 

[irishandy]

My biggest takeaway from this game for each team:

ND-- they made 0 adjustments from the 1st half to the 2nd half. Book seemed to look for big passing plays in the first half. With the way the OL was blocking go for a short pass. Do we wants 2nd and long or 2nd and 6?

Since "talent" has been a key word I'd say the biggest talent factor for ND is WR. No disrespect to McKinely or Skowronek, but if Austin and Lenzy were playing, they'd make a difference.

Clemson: Trevor Lawrence played.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Hypothetically, an offense led by Tyler Buchner, Chris Tyree, Jordan Johnson, Lorenzo Styles, Deon Colzie, and Michael Mayer has more offensive firepower than any ND Offense since Clausen, Tate, Floyd, Rudolph + a better OL. We're still building, as painful as it is. Let's see where we are in a few more years.

The way things have been with ND though is that when the offense is legit, the defense struggles and vice versa. I have yet to see ND field a complete team. ND offense is #93 in the damn country in Red Zone offense. It's ridiculous. What could've been...

 

[Huntr]

Stars matter. That's it.

 

[ulukinatme]

Before the season began I mentioned we had a considerable lack of experience and established playmakers in our receiving group. A number of people said we were fine, yet it took a number of games before guys like Davis and Ben emerged. Even then, we still have some deficiencies. I'm glad those guys DID step up, because we probably lose a few games otherwise. Still, we clearly have some deficiencies in our passing game that go beyond Book. You need at least one star that can take the top off a defense, someone that will consistently get open and we don't have that. Alabama has at least one, so does Clemson, as does Ohio State. Hopefully we get the OL figured out without Patterson, but more than that I don't know what we're going to do to fix the passing game before Bama.

 

[NDisme]

Hypothetically, an offense led by Tyler Buchner, Chris Tyree, Jordan Johnson, Lorenzo Styles, Deon Colzie, and Michael Mayer has more offensive firepower than any ND Offense since Clausen, Tate, Floyd, Rudolph + a better OL. We're still building, as painful as it is. Let's see where we are in a few more years.

Yup I agree, should also have a better O line than any of the teams Clausen and those guys played behind, only difference is each of these guys have to “acclimated” to ND and stay academically eligible and blah blah stuff that most other teams don’t have to deal with

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

IMO it’s better to be considering in the group of perennial playoff contenders than every other year as a possible dark horse. The recruits will come.

The rare five star with academic chops is in fact that. Rare.

 

[NDisme]

I mean 3 years ago we were thinking, great Lenzy, Austin, Keys those will be the guys at least by now surely. 2 outside guys and a slot guy. Well year 3 and Because of “traits” injuries, suspension. Those guys have done virtually nothing at ND that can’t happen.

 

[IrishRazor82]

My biggest takeaway is I never want to play a dual QB again (unless it's Justin Fields). I'm really thankful Mac Jones can't run in the pocket or worse, run the read option. That difference in TL shredded Lea.

 

[tommyIRISH23]

That game was incredibly disappointing, and it boils down to two primary issues:
1. Over a three game sample size, it's extremely clear that this offensive line is orders of magnitude worse without Jarrett Patterson. The OL was the #1 reason for offensive success, and it's just not playing at the same level. This not only killed ND's rushing attack for the third straight week, it is unlikely to get fixed until next season.
2. ND doesn't have a big boy passing game like you see at Alabama, Clemson, or Florida. They don't have an "uncoverable" WR or a top draft pick QB, and now they're also giving up more pressure.

That's it. That's the list. There is nothing wrong with a 10-1 team besides that they're a bit undertalented at a couple positions and apparently "depth" on the OL was a sick joke. There aren't culture problems, systemic coaching issues, etc.

A lot of the editorializing about how ND isn't close to Bama/Clemson/Ohio State misses the fact that NO ONE is close to these schools besides one-offs from other SEC teams. The PAC12 and Oklahoma and other Big Ten teams get throttled whenever they're given the opportunity to step up. Oklahoma every single year ends up in a playoff game where they get laughed off the field as bad or worse than what we just saw... yet no one goes "oh man Oklahoma and Lincoln Riley have a big problem and need to burn it all down."

At the end of the day, ND beat Clemson the first time around because the offense made a bunch of big plays. This time, the offense made none of those plays. Similarly, a kinda streaky Florida team competed with Bama this evening... because their offense made big plays. Winning in 2020 is as simple as how hard your passing game is to stop.

I think its a bit dramatic to act like the sky is falling or a previously undefeated team is headed the wrong direction because of one game against a generational QB paired with the top rated defense in college football led by the best DC in the country getting his second crack at a first year OC. The bigger question is what can ND do to land players like Lawrence... or Shipley... or many others they aren't even in the conversation for. And frankly, I'm not sure there is an answer short of brazen cheating. But it sort of is-what-it-is and people shouldn't pretend that the team has been steadily heading in the right direction since the debacle of 2016.

Great post and 100% agree. The program is in great shape. Our line issues are unfortunately a part of the game that’s bad luck. Well have a capable line next season on both sides of the ball. Depending who our DC is, we can field a strong defense.

Remember the narratives only a few years ago? ND can’t recruit Oline...ND can’t recruit elite DL...the big uglies don’t want to play in South Bend and deal with all the “baggage” of being a student. We proved that wrong. ND can’t recruit speed...proved that wrong. We need WR prospects to work out and, most of all, we need a 4 star QB or higher with a big arm and some mobility. We’ve struck out on a few of those prospects because of injuries and transfers but with that said, were inching closer. Look at where we were 10 years ago...5 years ago.... were inching our way closer. I hope in the future we take advantage of the transfer options that are compatible with ND (not just grad students). Also, my biggest peeve is play the young raw but Uber athletic talent. Ex. There’s no reason an elite prospect like Jordan Johnson doesn’t work into the rotation over the last month to get him some reps to prepare for packages in games like yesterday and the upcoming game against Alabama. Players like that are difference makers. Give him 10 snaps a game and just have him run basic routes he’s been running since high school. Going forward I hope Kelly finds ways to use his athletes early but controlled.

 

[Irishize]

While ND does snag some great 4-stars & an occasional 5-star who wants the ND experience, its not enough to compete with Bama/Clemson/tOSU in the post season.

Bama just lost their stud center but somehow it won’t be an issue for them the way it is for ND. They will plug in another 4 or 5 star w/ a few weeks to prepare.

ND needed everything to go right yesterday and that’s too much to ask for any team. I have to think that the staff adjusted their gameplan these past two weeks but it didn’t show. It’s like BK has a little some success & thinks ND made it....but you have to keep getting better b/c the deck is stacked against ND.

The Irish want their cake & eat it too. Nationally respected education, Midwest values/climate, full stadiums at home games, NBC deal, licensing money & a football program that is a national power. That’s too much to ask in today’s competitive landscape. So if all things are to remain the same, i think this is the ceiling for ND.

 

[Irish2155]

Losing Patterson is killing this team. He literally accounts for 3 defenders on every snap. Who would have thought a center was so important...!?!?

 

[gkIrish]

This is why the narrative exists. This is why we don't get the benefit of the doubt.

Notre Dame in BCS/NY6/CFP games last 25 years ...

'01 Fiesta: L 41-9 to Oregon State.
'06 Fiesta: L 34-20 to Ohio State.
'07 Sugar: L 41-14 to LSU.
'13 BCS title game: L 42-14 to Bama.
'16 Fiesta: L 44-28 to Ohio State.
'18 CFP: L 30-3 to Clemson.

That's all that needs to be said.

 

[Rogue219]

That game was incredibly disappointing, and it boils down to two primary issues:
1. Over a three game sample size, it's extremely clear that this offensive line is orders of magnitude worse without Jarrett Patterson. The OL was the #1 reason for offensive success, and it's just not playing at the same level. This not only killed ND's rushing attack for the third straight week, it is unlikely to get fixed until next season.
2. ND doesn't have a big boy passing game like you see at Alabama, Clemson, or Florida. They don't have an "uncoverable" WR or a top draft pick QB, and now they're also giving up more pressure.

That's it. That's the list. There is nothing wrong with a 10-1 team besides that they're a bit undertalented at a couple positions and apparently "depth" on the OL was a sick joke. There aren't culture problems, systemic coaching issues, etc.

A lot of the editorializing about how ND isn't close to Bama/Clemson/Ohio State misses the fact that NO ONE is close to these schools besides one-offs from other SEC teams. The PAC12 and Oklahoma and other Big Ten teams get throttled whenever they're given the opportunity to step up. Oklahoma every single year ends up in a playoff game where they get laughed off the field as bad or worse than what we just saw... yet no one goes "oh man Oklahoma and Lincoln Riley have a big problem and need to burn it all down."

At the end of the day, ND beat Clemson the first time around because the offense made a bunch of big plays. This time, the offense made none of those plays. Similarly, a kinda streaky Florida team competed with Bama this evening... because their offense made big plays. Winning in 2020 is as simple as how hard your passing game is to stop.

I think its a bit dramatic to act like the sky is falling or a previously undefeated team is headed the wrong direction because of one game against a generational QB paired with the top rated defense in college football led by the best DC in the country getting his second crack at a first year OC. The bigger question is what can ND do to land players like Lawrence... or Shipley... or many others they aren't even in the conversation for. And frankly, I'm not sure there is an answer short of brazen cheating. But it sort of is-what-it-is and people shouldn't pretend that the team has been steadily heading in the right direction since the debacle of 2016.

Really is spot on. Those three programs stand alone. There is everyone else after them.

Think about some of the guys on this Alabama team and how they were not even the most coveted players at their positions when they signed with their recruiting classes. That Alabama QB had to come in and replace Tua. Now there is talk he's an NFL first rounder? Go look at his recruiting profile. It's madness to think he was just a throw in guy.

Smith signed in the same class with Jeudy and Ruggs. Seriously?

ND is as solid as the program has been since Lou Holtz. That said, it's 2021 and not the Holtz Era. They just don't have that kind of crazy talent at every position to compete with those three programs. Think about how ND has beaten so many programs in the last few years head to head at full strength pre Covid. What does that say about those programs?

ND chooses to conduct business a certain way, and as long as they do that, they probably won't ever have the talent of Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State in all 85 scholarship spots. They can still have enough to be more competitive in these games when the time comes. THAT is the frustrating part. The small sample size of these games but the exact same result time and again, going back to the two BCS bowls under Weis and the title game vs. Bama to now.

 

[DONALDIII]

It's time to start looking at who can transfer in at the QB position. That's clearly our limiting factor right now and until that position is solved with a game changer like Lawrence/Trask/Jones this is who are.

Could not agree more with this! Those OU teams getting laughed off the field had great QBs at least allowed them a chance in the media. We don't have that. We have Book who is considered tenured, not great.. big difference.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

My conclusion from reading this thread (and general online comments):

Sounds like people are starting to realize "RTDB" isn't going to cut it against the big dogs. You have to have a vertical passing game. And ideally, a vertical passing game with a mobile QB.

Tyler Buchner fits the mold. We shall see.

 

[NDRock]

My conclusion from reading this thread (and general online comments):

Sounds like people are starting to realize "RTDB" isn't going to cut it against the big dogs. You have to have a vertical passing game. And ideally, a vertical passing game with a mobile QB.

Tyler Buchner fits the mold. We shall see.

I don’t really think that’s true. Without a doubt I believe ND needs to be a physical football team and that means dominating upfront and having a strong run game. The problem is you can’t be one dimensional. Still need an elite QB and playmakers if you really want to win it all.

 

[Rogue219]

Tyler Buchner fits the mold. We shall see.

Gotta get the thoroughbreds around him.

Devonta Smith was in the same signing class of 2017 as Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III. He might win the Heisman. That's an embarrassment of riches, if we're being honest with ourselves, and we have not seen that level of talent at Notre Dame since Holtz and Cerrato.

 

[philipm31]

To land the elite players, we need to capitalize on the NIL legislation. This is going to be a sea change in college football, and we need to take advantage of it. Other teams are already planning on how they will deal with it, but we need to do more than simply dealing with it. We need to use it as a way to catch up to the big boys. And, really, NIL should play into some of our advantages. We have a huge fanbase with national reach, a wealthy alumni (and subway alumni) network that is obsessed with football, and a national TV broadcast deal that is so well known and tilted in our favor that people have a derogatory nickname for the network.

Not every recruit will take the NIL legislation into account and eventually if we do it better than the big boys, they will adapt and catch up. But we do not need to sustain that advantage or get every recruit with it. We just need to use it to close the gap, at which point we should be able to sustain it. It can be like what happened with Clemson. They broke through with an elite QB leading a team to the game of its life against a better opponent, but now they are absolutely swimming in 5 star talent. If we play this right, we can get the couple players needed to put us over the top, and after that the rest of the talent should follow.

Is NIL different than the NLI?