ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

irish4ever

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Current rank of schedule. Easier to understand how (2) 1 loss teams are in the top 4 rankings ....

Rank Team
1 Alabama
2 Tennessee
3 W.Virginia
4 LSU
5 Notre Dame
6 USC
7 California
8 Washington
9 Clemson
10 Ga.Texh
24 Okl. State
51 Baylor
57 Iowa
 

Irish#1

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Lol that dude's own stats say there's a greater chance of ND getting jumped than not getting jumped, which is what I was reacting to.

For example if you look at Baylor it's not even really a matter of "jump" the Playoff Committee has basically deferred from ranking them in the top 4 for the reason that they don't think Baylor has played anyone that the Committee thinks they can evaluate them against. So they stick them at 6 right outside the playoff waiting their turn. If Baylor beats the Oklahoma teams they will jump ND.

There is also a scenario where Utah could jump ND, although unlikely.

ND has to win but others also have to lose. It's called not controlling your own destiny.

I think the committee has deferred in ranking them very high because they are not a complete team. It's not a coincidence that all of the Big 12 schools aren't ranked very high. Schedule certainly plays into that, but going off of last year, it appears to me the committee also wants the most complete teams. Utah has no chance of getting into the top four after the pasting they took unless they win out 75-0 in their remaining games. Our SOS may take a hit for a couple of weeks, but we're already a top four team in the committee's eyes and I don't see us getting punished very hard for that.
 

Blaise

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We won't lose our perch without losing bub.

an undefeated Big 12 team hops us... No question..... Best Bet is to have OSU lose to MSU or Mich... Neither of them will hop ND with ND beating Stanford the last week of the season...

But if top three win out, they are in and they will be hopped by undefeated Baylor or Ok St...
 

NDohio

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I am not sure that a Big12 team jumps us even if they go undefeated. One of the things the committee has talked about being very important to them is that teams are well rounded. They have talked about having quality on offense, defense, special teams, and coaching. Jeff Long spoke about that in depth last year when the Big12 was shut out. The only team that has that balance is OK and they already have a loss. I'm fairly confident at this point that if we win out, we are in. Especially if Stanford wins out up until we beat them and then they win their championship game.
 

rocket66

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Anyone listening to Golic this morning? It'd be cool if he shut his pie hole about the Big 12.


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STLcardz-NDirish

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an undefeated Big 12 team hops us... No question..... Best Bet is to have OSU lose to MSU or Mich... Neither of them will hop ND with ND beating Stanford the last week of the season...

But if top three win out, they are in and they will be hopped by undefeated Baylor or Ok St...

I disagree. If Navy, Temple, USC, Stanford, Pitt, and Clemson all finish extremly well, I think we get in over an undefeated big12 if we handle Stanford convincingly
 
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STLcardz-NDirish

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We have the advantage we play a variety of teams from different conferences. There is a visible measuring stick. The big12 on the other hand is hard to gauge. They only play each other.
 

Booslum31

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an undefeated Big 12 team hops us... No question..... Best Bet is to have OSU lose to MSU or Mich... Neither of them will hop ND with ND beating Stanford the last week of the season...

But if top three win out, they are in and they will be hopped by undefeated Baylor or Ok St...

This is it. We are about to go off the radar for two weeks while we play crappy teams. I think there is a chance that we get bumped down in the next two weeks until we play Stanford.
 

rocket66

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This is it. We are about to go off the radar for two weeks while we play crappy teams. I think there is a chance that we get bumped down in the next two weeks until we play Stanford.


Iowa moved up several spots after beating Indiana. We need USC to keep winning and get into the polls over the next two weeks.


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koonja

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Someone tell me how a 1-loss Oklahoma deserves to be in over us when we'll likely have 4 top 25 wins (Stanford, USC, Temple, Navy), with Stanford being more impressive than OK's best win, and they'll have had 3 top 25 wins (TCU, OK ST, Baylor), and a much uglier loss (to a team we throttled 38-3).
 

gkIrish

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Someone tell me how a 1-loss Oklahoma deserves to be in over us when we'll likely have 4 top 25 wins (Stanford, USC, Temple, Navy), with Stanford being more impressive than OK's best win, and they'll have had 3 top 25 wins (TCU, OK ST, Baylor), and a much uglier loss (to a team we throttled 38-3).

First, Navy has to play @Houston. Temple has to play Memphis. Second, if they do happen to win they would have to play each other. So it's unlikely both teams are ranked at the end of the year.

Second, Oklahoma beating Baylor this weekend while Gameday is there and all the spotlight is on the game will probably jump them up to the top 7.

Third, their win @Tennesse looks very good to the committee. I personally don't have much respect for Tennessee, but the committee seems to value these metrics and Tennessee is very highly rated in those metrics.

Fourth, Oklahoma will have beat 2 top 10 teams on the road plus another top 20 team in the last 3 weeks of the season while we beat 1 top 10 on the road and 2 scrubs. The committee indicated last year that "what have you done lately" is very important.

Not saying they deserve to be ahead of us, but I also don't think it would be outrageous. By the way, Oklahoma has murdered every team they beat besides Tennessee.
 

STLcardz-NDirish

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First, Navy has to play @Houston. Temple has to play Memphis. Second, if they do happen to win they would have to play each other. So it's unlikely both teams are ranked at the end of the year.

Second, Oklahoma beating Baylor this weekend while Gameday is there and all the spotlight is on the game will probably jump them up to the top 7.

Third, their win @Tennesse looks very good to the committee. I personally don't have much respect for Tennessee, but the committee seems to value these metrics and Tennessee is very highly rated in those metrics.

Fourth, Oklahoma will have beat 2 top 10 teams on the road plus another top 20 team in the last 3 weeks of the season while we beat 1 top 10 on the road and 2 scrubs. The committee indicated last year that "what have you done lately" is very important.

Not saying they deserve to be ahead of us, but I also don't think it would be outrageous. By the way, Oklahoma has murdered every team they beat besides Tennessee.

Tennessee played bama closer than LSU. Tennessee just needs to learn to finish games, but they are a pretty talented team.
 
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koonja

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First, Navy has to play @Houston. Temple has to play Memphis. Second, if they do happen to win they would have to play each other. So it's unlikely both teams are ranked at the end of the year.

Second, Oklahoma beating Baylor this weekend while Gameday is there and all the spotlight is on the game will probably jump them up to the top 7.

Third, their win @Tennesse looks very good to the committee. I personally don't have much respect for Tennessee, but the committee seems to value these metrics and Tennessee is very highly rated in those metrics.

Fourth, Oklahoma will have beat 2 top 10 teams on the road plus another top 20 team in the last 3 weeks of the season while we beat 1 top 10 on the road and 2 scrubs. The committee indicated last year that "what have you done lately" is very important.

Not saying they deserve to be ahead of us, but I also don't think it would be outrageous. By the way, Oklahoma has murdered every team they beat besides Tennessee.

Which has the opportunity to vault them even further, or crap out, which isn't any different than the Big12 situation either. And if Temple and Navy end up playing each other in the championship, that doesn't hurt us at all. One will jump up, one will still finish ranked.

It will jump them, but judging by OK St jumping only 4 spots I believe, we can expect Oklahoma to jump about the same, so ~8th. That doesn't scare me when we're at 4.

That's news to me. Not saying I'm right, but I don't see anything being mentioned about beating Tennessee. More about 'credit for scheduling', but Tennessee turned out not to be good so it's a wash.

Those teams will no longer be top 10, at least unlikely. Where as we have 2 top 20's right now, but Temple/Navy have great opportunities to move up further, and USC is about to get ranked too.

And IDK how the committee could compare OK and ND without taking into account the Texas game. I feel like that's the tie breaker and it's an obvious one.
 

gkIrish

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Which has the opportunity to vault them even further, or crap out, which isn't any different than the Big12 situation either. And if Temple and Navy end up playing each other in the championship, that doesn't hurt us at all. One will jump up, one will still finish ranked.

The Big 12 situation is different because they can all lose a game but still finish in the top 15-20. If Navy or Temple lose they will barely finish in the top 25 at best. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we finish the season with only 2 top 25 wins and none in the top 10. More on that below.

That's news to me. Not saying I'm right, but I don't see anything being mentioned about beating Tennessee. More about 'credit for scheduling', but Tennessee turned out not to be good so it's a wash.

I'm just making an educated guess on Tennessee. I think that win on the road is viewed similarly to our win against USC.

Those teams will no longer be top 10, at least unlikely. Where as we have 2 top 20's right now, but Temple/Navy have great opportunities to move up further, and USC is about to get ranked too.

I will be surprised if USC wins out. I think either Oregon or UCLA will beat them. UCLA has their number the last few years. And USC doesn't exactly beat the teams they should beat. And if they win out, that might knock Temple or Navy out of the top 25. Bottom line, I think we will have at most 3 top 25 wins and at worst 1. After beating Stanford they will drop out of the top 10. Meanwhile, either Baylor, TCU, or Oklahoma St. will still be in the top 10 at the end of the season. It's virtually a guarantee. So Oklahoma would have a top 10 win and we wouldn't. Plus they would have the next 2 best wins between us.
 

Nok

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Long time reader... 1st post. I don't think I've seen this discussed anywhere. Would it be better for us if Texas finishes poorly? That would probably be enough to get us in over a 1 loss OU (lost to Texas). Then again it could hurt us if we are up against a 1 loss Utah or MSU or even a 2 loss UF SEC champ.
 
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koonja

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The Big 12 situation is different because they can all lose a game but still finish in the top 15-20. If Navy or Temple lose they will barely finish in the top 25 at best. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we finish the season with only 2 top 25 wins and none in the top 10. More on that below.



I'm just making an educated guess on Tennessee. I think that win on the road is viewed similarly to our win against USC.



I will be surprised if USC wins out. I think either Oregon or UCLA will beat them. UCLA has their number the last few years. And USC doesn't exactly beat the teams they should beat. And if they win out, that might knock Temple or Navy out of the top 25. Bottom line, I think we will have at most 3 top 25 wins and at worst 1. After beating Stanford they will drop out of the top 10. Meanwhile, either Baylor, TCU, or Oklahoma St. will still be in the top 10 at the end of the season. It's virtually a guarantee. So Oklahoma would have a top 10 win and we wouldn't. Plus they would have the next 2 best wins between us.

USC only has to win 2/3 to finish ranked, they don't have to win out.

And they'd have nothing to do with knocking Temple/Navy. Temple/Navy control their own destiny in regards to finishing ranked, and I am very confident that if they each have 1 additional ~10 point or less loss, they'll still finish ranked.

Tennessee plays 3 jokes of teams from here on out, so they might also finish ranked, which would suck.

You haven't commented on the one common opponent between OK and ND and I think that's the elephant in the room when the season resume is so close.
 

gkIrish

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Long time reader... 1st post. I don't think I've seen this discussed anywhere. Would it be better for us if Texas finishes poorly? That would probably be enough to get us in over a 1 loss OU (lost to Texas). Then again it could hurt us if we are up against a 1 loss Utah or MSU or even a 2 loss UF SEC champ.

Welcome and keep posting.

I think you make a good point. Assuming Oklahoma wins out, I think it's definitely better for us if Texas tanks. It has a marginal effect on our resume while it really hurts Oklahoma.
 

RDU Irish

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Navy will get a lot of respect after they beat Houston. That conference looks great for Navy - they really can't handle the triple option. The opposing offense is neutralized by the TOP heavily favoring the 16 play drives. It is maddening and these teams do not have the mental fortitude to deal with it come the fourth quarter. Total tortoise vs. hare scenario and I think Navy outlasts Houston in a high scoring game.

Temple beating Memphis is tougher. I think Ole Miss and SEC defenses are overrated. Temple has a defense and I like their odds. But I am not sure it matters since Temple as the East division locked up. As long as they don't get blown up I think they stay respected and it always looks good to have your opponents lining up in CCGs.
 

gkIrish

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USC only has to win 2/3 to finish ranked, they don't have to win out.

And they'd have nothing to do with knocking Temple/Navy. Temple/Navy control their own destiny in regards to finishing ranked, and I am very confident that if they each have 1 additional ~10 point or less loss, they'll still finish ranked.

Tennessee plays 3 jokes of teams from here on out, so they might also finish ranked, which would suck.

You haven't commented on the one common opponent between OK and ND and I think that's the elephant in the room when the season resume is so close.

Obviously the Texas thing helps us. But I think at the end of the day it comes down to how you compare that to:

Baylor/Ok St. ~#8
Stanford ~ 13
Ok. St/Baylor ~ 14
TCU ~ 16

What I'm trying to say is Oklahoma, in all likelihood, would have 3 of the best 4 wins between us and them. And they would all be at the end of the season. The Texas loss is also mitigated by the fact that it was a neutral field as opposed to a home game for us.

Again, not arguing they should be ahead of us. But I would completely understand it.
 
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koonja

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Obviously the Texas thing helps us. But I think at the end of the day it comes down to how you compare that to:

Baylor/Ok St. ~#8
Stanford ~ 13
Ok. St/Baylor ~ 14
TCU ~ 16


What I'm trying to say is Oklahoma, in all likelihood, would have 3 of the best 4 wins between us and them. And they would all be at the end of the season. The Texas loss is also mitigated by the fact that it was a neutral field as opposed to a home game for us.

Again, not arguing they should be ahead of us. But I would completely understand it.

If it finishes the way you have it, then I'd also understand. But Baylor/OK St aren't finishing in the top 10 if Oklahoma beats them. Look where TCU just fell to.

And you're also assuming Temple/Navy tank. If that's the case, I'll understand. But there's no reason to assume that they both crap the bed right now.
 

RDU Irish

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No way Oklahoma gets in over us. The common opponent is too much to overcome, especially since we emasculated Texas. They would have as strong of a finish as anyone with wins over TCU, Baylor and OKST to finish but I cannot fathom the committee giving them the nod over us. Big12 is undefeated or bust for a playoff spot over 11-1 Notre Dame. That said, I would give 11-1 Oklahoma the nod over a one loss B1G champ (probably not a one loss Stanford if they beat us).
 

IrishJayhawk

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Welcome and keep posting.

I think you make a good point. Assuming Oklahoma wins out, I think it's definitely better for us if Texas tanks. It has a marginal effect on our resume while it really hurts Oklahoma.

Agreed. Texas isn't propping up our SOS and it's a terrible loss for OK.
 

irishfan

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Someone tell me how a 1-loss Oklahoma deserves to be in over us when we'll likely have 4 top 25 wins (Stanford, USC, Temple, Navy), with Stanford being more impressive than OK's best win, and they'll have had 3 top 25 wins (TCU, OK ST, Baylor), and a much uglier loss (to a team we throttled 38-3).

Tennessee will finish 8-4 and ranked. They are huge favorites in their remaining games, and all of their losses were very close.

I do think regardless that we will be in over OU if we both go 11-1...especially if someone else from the Big-12 finishes 8-1 in conference play so they have another split title.
 
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phork

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Flat out a 1 loss BIG12 team is not going to make it. They did it to them last year and the only way they jump us this year is an undefeated BIG12 team. Right now that being Baylor or OkieSt.
 

gkIrish

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If it finishes the way you have it, then I'd also understand. But Baylor/OK St aren't finishing in the top 10 if Oklahoma beats them. Look where TCU just fell to.

And you're also assuming Temple/Navy tank. If that's the case, I'll understand. But there's no reason to assume that they both crap the bed right now.

Someone has to be in the top 10. A one loss Baylor or Oklahoma St. team would finish in the top 10, no doubt about it. Stanford would not finish in the top 10 with 2 losses in all likelihood. That's why I made those projections. TCU and Baylor both had 1 loss last year and finished 5 and 6 IIRC.
 

Irish Insanity

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I only see 4 possible teams that could push us out if we win out. A 1 loss OU. And undefeated Big 12. MSU if they win out. Or Iowa if they win out.
 
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ACamp1900

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Flat out a 1 loss BIG12 team is not going to make it. They did it to them last year and the only way they jump us this year is an undefeated BIG12 team. Right now that being Baylor or OkieSt.

Oklahoma could if they win out and other teams, including ND, lose in front of them...
 

irishfan

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I only see 4 possible teams that could push us out if we win out. A 1 loss OU. And undefeated Big 12. MSU if they win out. Or Iowa if they win out.

Well, the last two teams would cause OSU to drop below us hopefully....
 
B

Bogtrotter07

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Number FOUR, baby!

Michigan beat OSU and Iowa

Sanford win'em till you play the IRISH!

Big 12, have at it!

FSU beat Florida!

Question, would a one loss Oklahoma get in over ND? Since there is no Big12 Championship, would Texas be Irish insurance?
 
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