greyhammer90
the drunk piano player
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Carroll's decision to throw the ball on the goal line was not as crazy as people have made it out to be. I'm not saying it was a good decision, but it wasn't "stupid".
Seattle has the ball at the NE 5 yard line with 1:14 left, and one timeout. Down here, where everyone is going to pile in close, if you run the ball it is going to take a lot of time off of the clock. The defense is going to pile on, and take their sweet-@ss time getting up off of the pile. So you are probably going to have to throw the ball at least once, anyway. You got a good gain on 1st down, and the defense left their jumbo goal line package out there. So the best time to throw is on 2nd down. It's not Carroll's fault that his QB couldn't read the defender on what equates to a simple slant route. It's not like Marshawn Lynch is incapable of being stoned at the line of scrimmage, and you were not going to have time to run him 4 times, with only 1 timeout. And heaven help you if someone gets injured and you either lose that timeout or have a runoff of time.
That's why it's a chess game. Carroll obviously thought that NE would anticipate that any pass would include a roll out, and the defenders in the middle would start to drift outside, therefore leaving the middle open. Add a pick(rub) to that, and you have a high probability of success. But, like in chess, the opponent doesn't always react the way you hope. That doesn't stop you from gambling, though.
I understand that I'm working off of results from a universe that doesn't exist, but I still feel as though you're having to work really hard to rationalize that decision. On the first down, Lynch had run for 4 1/2 yards against a similar goal line front. They were a half yard away from taking the lead with fifty seconds left in the super bowl with the best RB in the game. They had a timeout. The quick read required along with the incredibly tight field made a turnover much more likely than running the ball. (Also I'd add that at the throwing speed needed to hit a receiver on that quick slant there is a chance that the ball is bounced up in the air off someone's pads/helmet/hands. That's another pick just waiting to happen.)
You said it yourself, every part of the game has some form of gambling involved. But that was one of the worst gambles I've ever seen given all the options available. It was a classic case of a coach outthinking himself when the pressure ratcheted up.