Marcus Freeman New DC

[Dale]

UC HC spot as mentioned elsewhere would be my main worry for Freeman at this time. B1G is pretty stable with Nebraska keeping Frost unless Tucker, Franklin etc open up vacancies

 

[Free Manera]

Yeah I could see him turning down VA Tech. They need a rebuild and it could sabotage his trajectory. But Cincinnati would be harder to turn down. He is unlikely to flame out there. Rather he will likely win a lot. Then he can wait for ND, OSU, PSU, or whoever to come calling.

 

[Rogue219]

Yeah I could see him turning down VA Tech. They need a rebuild and it could sabotage his trajectory. But Cincinnati would be harder to turn down. He is unlikely to flame out there. Rather he will likely win a lot. Then he can wait for ND, OSU, PSU, or whoever to come calling.

I could see him not even getting a feeler from Virginia Tech. As was stated before, Feldman just throws this stuff together for his articles every time there is an opening. For Freeman to turn down anything, it has to be offered to him. If I'm Virginia Tech I'm looking at Napier or Chadwell long before Freeman. Probably looking at Elko before Freeman too. Nothing against Marcus Freeman but he has coached ten games at the P5 level. Handing him the VT job and $4M a year seems kind of hasty.

Chris Vannini at the Athletic is far more reliable for me as a reader, and he didn't mention Freeman in his piece as a potential candidate. Andy Bitter didn't either. I think this was Feldman just throwing a carrot out there.

 

[Dale]

With Freeman, besides UC, I wonder where the line starts. I’d think any SEC school looking for a DC turn HC would start with Lanning, Golding, Odom or Arnett. I don’t know if I see West Coast Freeman. So maybe a handful of ACC jobs plus most of the B1G spots? Really not overly concerned again besides UC or a B1G job for the most part

 

[Rogue219]

With Freeman, besides UC, I wonder where the line starts. I’d think any SEC school looking for a DC turn HC would start with Lanning, Golding, Odom or Arnett. I don’t know if I see West Coast Freeman. So maybe a handful of ACC jobs plus most of the B1G spots? Really not overly concerned again besides UC or a B1G job for the most part

I think he's back at ND next year as DC. Fun to speculate and have message board banter, but more often than not so much of this is all about timing.

 

[ulukinatme]

Your Freeman hate shtick is annoying. Seems like your dislike for him goes beyond what's happening on the field for whatever reason.

Meanwhile, your boy Rees is struggling to score 30 against weak defense like Navy and UVA.

Football is often won in the trenches. The fact we're scoring at all with a struggling OL is rather surprising actually, and it's probably why Rees is nominated for the Broyles award and Freeman isn't. Freeman doesn't have that excuse, our DL is one of the stronger position groups on this team and we've still struggled defensively this year. Obviously it takes more than the big boys to win football games, but the fact remains we've given up more points this year on average than 2020 and that's still accounting for two games against Clemson, one being double overtime, and Alabama. We haven't faced any offenses like that this year, especially given Virginia playing like ass without their starting QB.

If I dislike Freeman it's for no reason than I think he's been over-hyped thus far. I've seen a lot of excuses like "Just wait till he gets his guys" and a lot of other rubbish that people say but rarely pans out. Coaches that have to wait to improve are often the ones that are out after 2-3 years. Elko and Lea didn't have to wait to get their guys, they taught solid fundamentals and we started improving right away. It's one thing if the guys don't understand the system, it's another if we're not fundamentally sound. It's really hard to tell where this defense is right now given the last few games were against teams that didn't have a pulse offensively. I hope we continue to get better, but I think we're going to honestly struggle in a big bowl this year if we face a team with a good offense.

 

[Armyirish47]

Football is often won in the trenches. The fact we're scoring at all with a struggling OL is rather surprising actually, and it's probably why Rees is nominated for the Broyles award and Freeman isn't. Freeman doesn't have that excuse, our DL is one of the stronger position groups on this team and we've still struggled defensively this year. Obviously it takes more than the big boys to win football games, but the fact remains we've given up more points this year on average than 2020 and that's still accounting for two games against Clemson, one being double overtime, and Alabama. We haven't faced any offenses like that this year, especially given Virginia playing like ass without their starting QB.

If I dislike Freeman it's for no reason than I think he's been over-hyped thus far. I've seen a lot of excuses like "Just wait till he gets his guys" and a lot of other rubbish that people say but rarely pans out. Coaches that have to wait to improve are often the ones that are out after 2-3 years. Elko and Lea didn't have to wait to get their guys, they taught solid fundamentals and we started improving right away. It's one thing if the guys don't understand the system, it's another if we're not fundamentally sound. It's really hard to tell where this defense is right now given the last few games were against teams that didn't have a pulse offensively. I hope we continue to get better, but I think we're going to honestly struggle in a big bowl this year if we face a team with a good offense.

Up to # 13 defense in SP+.
Up to # 10 defense in FEI.

 

[ulukinatme]

Up to # 13 defense in SP+.
Up to # 10 defense in FEI.

Pretty good numbers against a lot of awful offenses. Still managed to give up 550+ yards and 34 to North Carolina (A team we manhandled last year when they were better offensively), 30 points to VT who has only scored more than that on Duke and Syracuse all year, nearly 30 to Toledo, 38 to FSU. I hope we've turned a corner, but we likely won't find out till bowl time because I doubt Stanford or GT gives us much trouble.

 

[Te'o4Heisman]

Coaches that have to wait to improve are often the ones that are out after 2-3 years. Elko and Lea didn't have to wait to get their guys, they taught solid fundamentals and we started improving right away.

So who is on the list of coaches that would have come in and immediately "improved" our defense from what Clark Lea did last year, even if the team stayed completely healthy. Now tell me which one of them was available for us to hire that we didnt? I can with 100% confidence say it was much easier for Mike Elko to look like a savior coming in after 2016 than it was for Freeman following Clark Lea.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Pretty good numbers against a lot of awful offenses. Still managed to give up 550+ yards and 34 to North Carolina (A team we manhandled last year when they were better offensively), 30 points to VT who has only scored more than that on Duke and Syracuse all year, nearly 30 to Toledo, 38 to FSU. I hope we've turned a corner, but we likely won't find out till bowl time because I doubt Stanford or GT gives us much trouble.

SP+ and FEI are opponent adjusted, so they're just "pretty good numbers", full stop. What they're not adjusted for is a rash of injuries the likes of which Elko and Lea never had to deal with, so they're even more impressive.

Then take into consideration that Freeman is already recruiting at a far higher level than Elko or Lea ever managed, and that his scheme is better suited to winning a title than theirs was... I don't think you have a leg to stand on here.

 

[Irish2155]

SP+ and FEI are opponent adjusted, so they're just "pretty good numbers", full stop. What they're not adjusted for is a rash of injuries the likes of which Elko and Lea never had to deal with, so they're even more impressive.

Then take into consideration that Freeman is already recruiting at a far higher level than Elko or Lea ever managed, and that his scheme is better suited to winning a title than theirs was... I don't think you have a leg to stand on here.

Nah, argument might be tall but there is still a leg to stand on…3 man fronts, giving up points to close halves, and dropping your best pass rusher into coverage too often are all pretty fair critiques to me.

He asked a simple question that hasn’t been answered yet. Does the stat include missed assignments and/or bad angles or not? Because that’s important.

 

[Ndaccountant]

SP+ and FEI are opponent adjusted, so they're just "pretty good numbers", full stop. What they're not adjusted for is a rash of injuries the likes of which Elko and Lea never had to deal with, so they're even more impressive.

Then take into consideration that Freeman is already recruiting at a far higher level than Elko or Lea ever managed, and that his scheme is better suited to winning a title than theirs was... I don't think you have a leg to stand on here.

True, but Tommy has overcome the QB adversity that he created. Can't ignore that!!

 

[Ndaccountant]

Nah, argument might be tall but there is still a leg to stand on…3 man fronts, giving up points to close halves, and dropping your best pass rusher into coverage too often are all pretty fair critiques to me.

He asked a simple question that hasn’t been answered yet. Does the stat include missed assignments and/or bad angles or not? Because that’s important.

So, you are saying that while the overall product is statistically a top defense, you dismiss it because an element of it can be improved? The defensive rankings include the very issues you speak of.

I think people in general need to get past the "how" and focus on the results. It honestly reminds me of the old RTDB clashes everyone used to have. Styles can vary, but results speak for themselves. I am truly puzzled as to why people don't recognize how incredible the defense is this year given the circumstances.

The style difference is quite clear when you look at the numbers. Clark Lea's defenses were elite at preventing TD's. that is what it was designed to do. Where is struggled at times was TO's and quick 3 and outs. Freeman on the other hand, is certainly trying to prevent scoring but is also trying to get more offensive possessions. It's part of the change we have seen over the last 10-15 years. Your defense still be elite and give up 3 TD's.

The three metrics that support is First Down Rate (how many drives get at least one first down), Busted Drive Rate (how many drives end with 0 or fewer yards) and Turnover rate. How many defenses do you think are top 20 in all three categories?

UGA? Nope. Wisconsin? Very close, but nope. Iowa? Again, really close, but try again. Michigan? hahahaha. Bama? Nope. Ohio State? Not even top 25 in any of the three. Clemson? 2 of three.

Spoiler alert......there is only 1....ND.

Now flip this around to the offense. Where does ND offense rank in First Down Rate? 85th. Busted drive rate? 116th (ouch). Turnover rate? 47th,

Tommy's success is coming, in part, because of all the extra drives Freeman has been able to provide. Imagine what our scoring offense would look like if ND's defense this year played in a shell just to protect points. I think we would feel even worse about our offense than what we already do.

 

[Dale]

A+ stuff. I’ve been wondering about a better breakdown of what the offensive impact is having besides just straight Time of Possession (7th to 77th FYI) would look like and that about spells it out above.

 

[ulukinatme]

Tommy's success is coming, in part, because of all the extra drives Freeman has been able to provide. Imagine what our scoring offense would look like if ND's defense this year played in a shell just to protect points. I think we would feel even worse about our offense than what we already do.

I'm going to call bogus on this stat. I haven't broken down the number of drives from last year to this year as that would take awhile, but through 10 games last year we ran an average of 72.9 plays per game. Through 10 games this year we're averaging 68.4 plays per game. We're only scoring 1 point less a game from last year despite the struggling OL, and the yards per play are a bit less at 5.8 vs. 6.2 last year. I'm not even going to bother with Time of Possession since we ran the ball fairly well in 2020.

The point is we definitely aren't seeing more plays being run this year over last year, and as a result I doubt we're seeing that many extra drives...if any...as a result of anything Freeman has done. I will give you that we're ahead 3 turnovers from where we were last year at this time, but I would have expected more honestly with this aggressive defense. Even after the last two games against struggling Navy and Virginia we're giving up 4 points more per game from last year, and that's with the double overtime Clemson game. If we are seeing any more drives this year over last year I would probably chalk it up to the tempo offense we've been running lately and not eating up as much clock.

 

[Dale]

Even after the last two games against struggling Navy and Virginia we're giving up 4 points more per game from last year, and that's with the double overtime Clemson game

Some of if not more of the offenses we faced last year were abysmal too. The Freeman criticism always strays on we played Clemson last year and skips that Duke, South Florida etc wash that out pretty quickly on season totals.

 

[Ndaccountant]

I'm going to call bogus on this stat. I haven't broken down the number of drives from last year to this year as that would take awhile, but through 10 games last year we ran an average of 72.9 plays per game. Through 10 games this year we're averaging 68.4 plays per game. We're only scoring 1 point less a game from last year despite the struggling OL, and the yards per play are a bit less at 5.8 vs. 6.2 last year. I'm not even going to bother with Time of Possession since we ran the ball fairly well in 2020.

The point is we definitely aren't seeing more plays being run this year over last year, and as a result I doubt we're seeing that many extra drives...if any...as a result of anything Freeman has done. I will give you that we're ahead 3 turnovers from where we were last year at this time, but I would have expected more honestly with this aggressive defense. Even after the last two games against struggling Navy and Virginia we're giving up 4 points more per game from last year, and that's with the double overtime Clemson game. If we are seeing any more drives this year over last year I would probably chalk it up to the tempo offense we've been running lately and not eating up as much clock.

2020 Net Offensive Points per Drive - 2.99
2021 To Date Net Offensive Points per Drive - 2.55

That's a 15% drop off.

Another way of looking at it is how many yards ND gains each drive divided by the total number of yards available. Last year, ND ranked 13th in the country at .596 (Alabama was 1st at .738 BTW, which is incredible). This year, ND is .478, which ranks 62nd in the country (OSU if first, .704).

 

[Ndaccountant]

Some of if not more of the offenses we faced last year were abysmal too. The Freeman criticism always strays on we played Clemson last year and skips that Duke, South Florida etc wash that out pretty quickly on season totals.

And some of it is honestly just pure conjure based on "feel". ND defensive points per drive is 1.60 good for 16th in the country vs last year of 1.73.

The point is, the defense is really, really good. It's different than last year, for sure. But it doesn't mean that it isn't really really good. It's not UGA good, but it clearly is top 15 good. I think we would be feeling much different if this defense had the 2020 ND running attack on the opposite side.

(BTW, UGA is an earthshattering 0.38 defensive points per drive, while Wisconsin is #2 at 1.02, just to put into context how great they are. Only one defense in the last 10+ years has finished below 0.9, and that was Alabama of 2011, which was just above 0.5)

 

[ulukinatme]

2020 Net Offensive Points per Drive - 2.99
2021 To Date Net Offensive Points per Drive - 2.55

That's a 15% drop off.

Another way of looking at it is how many yards ND gains each drive divided by the total number of yards available. Last year, ND ranked 13th in the country at .596 (Alabama was 1st at .738 BTW, which is incredible). This year, ND is .478, which ranks 62nd in the country (OSU if first, .704).

Just gonna sidestep that bit about Freeman getting us extra drives, eh?

Honestly I would have expected a bigger drop off offensively with this OL being what it is and trading Book for Coan. We've killed a bunch of drives this year either in holding penalties or sacks that we shouldn't be taking. I can't wait till Quinn gets his recruits in and we can really see what we can do with a good OL, oh wait...

 

[NDRock]

2020 Net Offensive Points per Drive - 2.99
2021 To Date Net Offensive Points per Drive - 2.55

That's a 15% drop off.

Another way of looking at it is how many yards ND gains each drive divided by the total number of yards available. Last year, ND ranked 13th in the country at .596 (Alabama was 1st at .738 BTW, which is incredible). This year, ND is .478, which ranks 62nd in the country (OSU if first, .704).

I’d love to see the points per drive when Buchner is involved.

 

[Irish#1]

Stats are fun for fans to discuss. The bottom line is "points allowed". All other stats (TO's, length of drives, 3rd & 4th down stops all go to points allowed. Not sure how we got to Tommy and the offense. Freeman's recruiting for next season has no bearing on this year or next years D. How many freshmen do you see come in and start on D for a major program? The dividends for his recruiting will be paid in two years.

Ulukinatme's original post was asking about the poor fundamentals we've seen. In the second half of the season, tackling has been much better. This tells me Freeman or Kelly saw the deficiency and has been working to correct it. Have you been satisfied with the tackling and insistence to stay in a three man front when it's not working? I think we're moving in the right direction with Freeman and the missed tackles should be much improved next year as this will be the players second year in the defense. Less thinking and more reacting.

 

[BeauBenken]

And some of it is honestly just pure conjure based on "feel". ND defensive points per drive is 1.60 good for 16th in the country vs last year of 1.73.

The point is, the defense is really, really good. It's different than last year, for sure. But it doesn't mean that it isn't really really good. It's not UGA good, but it clearly is top 15 good. I think we would be feeling much different if this defense had the 2020 ND running attack on the opposite side.

(BTW, UGA is an earthshattering 0.38 defensive points per drive, while Wisconsin is #2 at 1.02, just to put into context how great they are. Only one defense in the last 10+ years has finished below 0.9, and that was Alabama of 2011, which was just above 0.5)

 

[Ndaccountant]

Just gonna sidestep that bit about Freeman getting us extra drives, eh?

Honestly I would have expected a bigger drop off offensively with this OL being what it is and trading Book for Coan. We've killed a bunch of drives this year either in holding penalties or sacks that we shouldn't be taking. I can't wait till Quinn gets his recruits in and we can really see what we can do with a good OL, oh wait...

I thought the stats made it self evident, but I will spell it out. If PPG are nearly flat, yet points per drive is down, what do you think would allow that to happen? It's either a) more drives, b) non-offensive scores.

Does that answer it for you?

 

[Ndaccountant]

Stats are fun for fans to discuss. The bottom line is "points allowed". All other stats (TO's, length of drives, 3rd & 4th down stops all go to points allowed. Not sure how we got to Tommy and the offense. Freeman's recruiting for next season has no bearing on this year or next years D. How many freshmen do you see come in and start on D for a major program? The dividends for his recruiting will be paid in two years.

Ulukinatme's original post was asking about the poor fundamentals we've seen. In the second half of the season, tackling has been much better. This tells me Freeman or Kelly saw the deficiency and has been working to correct it. Have you been satisfied with the tackling and insistence to stay in a three man front when it's not working? I think we're moving in the right direction with Freeman and the missed tackles should be much improved next year as this will be the players second year in the defense. Less thinking and more reacting.

Disagree. points allowed isn't the end all be all. For example (made up figures)...Navy giving up 21 PPG on defense is not the same as Mississippi State giving up 21 PPG. Additionally, Cincy giving up 17 ppg (again, made up) is not the same as Northwestern giving up 17 ppg.

You have to take so many different variables into the equation. If one team's defense only has to be on the field for 9 drives a game versus another that is on the field for 14 drives, it can distort performance. That is why points per drive is way more valuable than points per game.

 

[Rogue219]

North Carolina is 11th in the country right now in total offense. The hand wringing about the points and yards allowed in that game is rather curious to me. That QB is going to be on an NFL roster and is the definition of getting your brains beat in.

The defensive rotation right now is a mash unit of capable back ups and young guys due to injuries and has been for the last few weeks. The program is winning games and building toward next year at the same time.

There's a lot to feel good about, but I suppose I understand.

 

[Dale]

Stats are fun for fans to discuss. The bottom line is "points allowed". All other stats (TO's, length of drives, 3rd & 4th down stops all go to points allowed. Not sure how we got to Tommy and the offense. Freeman's recruiting for next season has no bearing on this year or next years D. How many freshmen do you see come in and start on D for a major program? The dividends for his recruiting will be paid in two years.

Ulukinatme's original post was asking about the poor fundamentals we've seen. In the second half of the season, tackling has been much better. This tells me Freeman or Kelly saw the deficiency and has been working to correct it. Have you been satisfied with the tackling and insistence to stay in a three man front when it's not working? I think we're moving in the right direction with Freeman and the missed tackles should be much improved next year as this will be the players second year in the defense. Less thinking and more reacting.

So down the stretch last year we gave up 27 points per game. You’d say the D for 1/3 of last year was worse than our current D if points is the end all?

 

[IrishLion]

The three man fronts are a legit gripe, as was the tackling in the beginning of the year.

However, and Whiskey kind of touched on it, I don't think ulukinatme is accounting for the fact that Elko was almost guaranteed to create immediate improvement over BVG because of how bad the defense was. So of course Elko and Lea got immediate results... Elko because he took over a piss-poor unit and simply gave them good, consistent coaching, and Lea because the transition from Elko was minimal, and supported by ready-made playmakers.

Freeman took over a unit that has HIGH expectations... and is meeting them based on stats and analytics, despite a system change and an insane run of poor injury luck. It's pretty crazy that we can pick out a legitimate gripe about using a 3-man front too often when discussing a top-15 defense, ignoring the reasons he might be relying on those odd fronts so often (personnel; practice prep; comfort for players in sense that we aren't aware of).

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Stats are fun for fans to discuss. The bottom line is "points allowed". All other stats (TO's, length of drives, 3rd & 4th down stops all go to points allowed. Not sure how we got to Tommy and the offense. Freeman's recruiting for next season has no bearing on this year or next years D. How many freshmen do you see come in and start on D for a major program? The dividends for his recruiting will be paid in two years.

The bottom line is did your offense score more than the other team. To do that you need to limit the opponents offense to below your scoring for the game. How you get there is the trick.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

So, you are saying that while the overall product is statistically a top defense, you dismiss it because an element of it can be improved? The defensive rankings include the very issues you speak of.

I think people in general need to get past the "how" and focus on the results. It honestly reminds me of the old RTDB clashes everyone used to have. Styles can vary, but results speak for themselves. I am truly puzzled as to why people don't recognize how incredible the defense is this year given the circumstances.

The style difference is quite clear when you look at the numbers. Clark Lea's defenses were elite at preventing TD's. that is what it was designed to do. Where is struggled at times was TO's and quick 3 and outs. Freeman on the other hand, is certainly trying to prevent scoring but is also trying to get more offensive possessions. It's part of the change we have seen over the last 10-15 years. Your defense still be elite and give up 3 TD's.

The three metrics that support is First Down Rate (how many drives get at least one first down), Busted Drive Rate (how many drives end with 0 or fewer yards) and Turnover rate. How many defenses do you think are top 20 in all three categories?

UGA? Nope. Wisconsin? Very close, but nope. Iowa? Again, really close, but try again. Michigan? hahahaha. Bama? Nope. Ohio State? Not even top 25 in any of the three. Clemson? 2 of three.

Spoiler alert......there is only 1....ND.

Now flip this around to the offense. Where does ND offense rank in First Down Rate? 85th. Busted drive rate? 116th (ouch). Turnover rate? 47th,

Tommy's success is coming, in part, because of all the extra drives Freeman has been able to provide. Imagine what our scoring offense would look like if ND's defense this year played in a shell just to protect points. I think we would feel even worse about our offense than what we already do.

 

[Rogue219]

The three man fronts are a legit gripe, as was the tackling in the beginning of the year.

However, and Whiskey kind of touched on it, I don't think ulukinatme is accounting for the fact that Elko was almost guaranteed to create immediate improvement over BVG because of how bad the defense was. So of course Elko and Lea got immediate results... Elko because he took over a piss-poor unit and simply gave them good, consistent coaching, and Lea because the transition from Elko was minimal, and supported by ready-made playmakers.

Freeman took over a unit that has HIGH expectations... and is meeting them based on stats and analytics, despite a system change and an insane run of poor injury luck. It's pretty crazy that we can pick out a legitimate gripe about using a 3-man front too often when discussing a top-15 defense, ignoring the reasons he might be relying on those odd fronts so often (personnel; practice prep; comfort for players in sense that we aren't aware of).

Great post.

Last year's team had 9 players drafted into the NFL. Three were from the defense, but consider the three: JOK, Hayes and Ogundeji. That's some high impact talent gone from a team that went to the playoff. So you not only replace those guys but you deal with all that you just mentioned.

Van Gorder's first year at ND, the red flag went up for me when they beat UNC. Too many things did not look right whatsoever. All that happened next was they lost five of their next seven games. The next season was better until the Stanford and Ohio State implosion, then in 2016 the wheels fell off.

To this point, I have not seen a huge red flag on Freeman and the little ones seem to have been corrected or vastly improved. Some ND fans might not be seeing their expectations met, but I think when you look at the overall big picture the defense is still very stable even though it is not perfect or dominant. Freeman is also proving to be the elite recruiter that he had a reputation for being so far.