Is this an underrated class?

[IrishLax]

Early signing period approaches. Currently #12 in the country, more likely to move down than up. Seems incongruent with "top 10" classes ND signed in 2017 and 2018.

Two five star players (Johnson, Tyree). Seven four star players.

Of the four star players, I think you can easily make the case for some (like Jordan Bothelo) being underrated and some (like Drew Pyne) being overrated so it's a wash.

The 3-star players are what's crazy to me. Xavier Watts would be a 95+ rating guy if he played in California and not Nebraska. Jay Brunelle being an 86 rating is purely absurd. He should, at minimum, be a low 4-star at either DB or WR.

It seems like the main thing driving down the ratings is the size of the class -- 17 total commits. That's only about two-thirds full relative to the 25 cap. Georgia and Texas have higher ranked classes with similar numbers of commits. Everyone else in the top 10 is in the 20+ category.

Overall, what do you think? And are classes like this "good enough" to get Notre Dame over the hump?

 

[NDPhilly]

Average star rating of 90.85 on 247 is currently the 3rd highest of Kelly's tenure. When you take into account the attrition in the 2012 class, this is probably Kelly's second best class as it currently stands.


2013 (92.3): High 4/5 stars Max Redfield, Steve Elmer, and Greg Bryant (RIP) didn't pan out

2012 (91.21): Lost Gunner Kiel, Davonte Neal, Will Mahome, and Justin Ferguson to transfer

 

[Free Manera]

No it isn't good enough to get over the hump unless Buchner is as legit as his film appears. That is the wild card.
See: https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/history-shows-national-titles-require-great-not-just-good-recruiting-over-4-years/

The only teams to win a national championship in the past 15 years without top 8 average recruiting rank were 2010 Auburn (Cam Newton) and 2016 Clemson (Deshaun Watson).

It can be done if the QB trotting should already be in the NFL. So, it all comes down to Buchner.

 

[arrowryan]

Other than Clemson and their six 5 star recruits, I wouldn't trade our class for anyone else's.

I love this class from top to bottom and think it perfectly compliments what the staff brought in during the 2018 and 2019 classes.

And, dare I say it, the 2021 class is looking to shape up as the best this century.

 

[BabyIrish]

I tend to not look at the team rankings but look at the average points ranking as we will most years always be short in the team rankings with not taking classes like the other ones do. We are currently 9th in average points at 90.85. I think that's a bit too low. I think we have a class that should be at least in the 91 point range which would put us a couple of spots higher.

Looking at the actual guys on our team- it seems that all of the offensive skill position guys could, in theory, come in and play right away. JJ, Watts, and Brunelle are the three most athletic receivers I've ever seen come in together in one class. The only position I'm iffy on that we are bringing in for this class is QB. I'm very excited about the DL class and I think Elston once again hit it out of the park. I think the DB's are severely underrated with Bartleson and Lewis both able to grow into good starters for us down the road. They have the athleticism but need the coaching to grow.

 

[zelezo vlk]

Yes, just like every other class.

Then in a year or two the consensus at ISD and here will be "Well, Tyree wasn't a REAL 5 star, and Botelho just isn't good enough to get it done on his own, and there isn't a Quenton Nelson in the class either. You gotta get those guys every year!"

I love ISD, but when I heard Mike Frank said that in a couple podcasts in 2015 and 2016, I had to facepalm. As if there even is a top 10 draft pick to be had at guard every year...

I'm with you on Watts being underrated, and I think people may be sleeping on Rylie Mills. Dude was high on Elston's board from the get-go and could be big time trouble in the interior rotation for years.

 

[irishff1014]

Question 1- When do the Final rankings come out for this class? If so do any of them have an opportunity to move up?

Question 2- Can't this relate to all teams though?

Right now on 24/7 We are the 12th rank right now. We have a better average per player so if you go by that we are the 9th. Not sure if that changes with any players leaving A&M, Bama, Texas or Florida or Auburn gaining players.

I have been reading the boards a 247 and it doesn't look right now we have any serious new players to add.

 

[irishff1014]

Other than Clemson and their six 5 star recruits, I wouldn't trade our class for anyone else's.

I love this class from top to bottom and think it perfectly compliments what the staff brought in during the 2018 and 2019 classes.

And, dare I say it, the 2021 class is looking to shape up as the best this century.

I almost agree with you. I am not saying that the CB's cant be good but i wish we would have gotten some more skilled CB's. That's a weakness we needed to be much better at and i don't think we addressed it enough.

And to be fair i believe some positions could be a coaching issue.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Average star rating of 90.85 on 247 is currently the 3rd highest of Kelly's tenure. When you take into account the attrition in the 2012 class, this is probably Kelly's second best class as it currently stands.


2013 (92.3): High 4/5 stars Max Redfield, Steve Elmer, and Greg Bryant (RIP) didn't pan out

2012 (91.21): Lost Gunner Kiel, Davonte Neal, Will Mahome, and Justin Ferguson to transfer

If you leave out Ehrensberger, who is basically impossible to rate, the class is a 91.27. The total class ranking is also dragged down by a specialist (79.97). Although that's pretty common since there are three specialists every four years it has an outsized effect on smaller classes. For the record, if you also exclude Peitsch the class ranking moves to 92.02. But, again, it's a little disingenuous to do this and compare to other classes which did have specialists.

IMO, the big question if you're viewing the class as a whole comes down to whether Offord/Lewis/Bartleson are accurately evaluated or not. If those guys should really be, say, 89.00s then that also makes a big difference in the overall rating.

Apart from just rankings, this class added top end talent to the offensive skill positions which is the single biggest recruiting issue Notre Dame has faced. OTOH, cornerback was a massive area of need and ND missed a bunch of targets there. If at least one of the Offord/Lewis/Bartleson group can step up and be an effective contributor early it would go a long way.

I'm not sure whether classes like this are good enough to get ND over the hump. What would the average quality of the class look like if ND were taking 25? Were they turning people down left and right because the class filled up and CB was just an outlier?

As of now the 2021 class is just stupid. I am relieved by how ND played from the last drive of the Virginia Tech game onward because while some fans may be dismissive of 10-2 seasons they are meaningful progress toward winning a national title.

 

[Wild Bill]

Agree with Philly, the average star rating is probably the best way to analyze the class due to the limited numbers.

Great job getting top end talent on offense. Combine this talent with Buchner next year and we may have something.

Not really sure what to make of the defensive side of the ball, especially on the edges and corner. Mills is probably too thick to stay on the edge. If he puts on weight, I think he could be a force inside with Keanaaina. Botelho appears to be a player but will need to be developed to play on the edge. Looks like we have some three stars that need to be developed at corner too.

I don't think the defensive class is the kind of class that gets them over the hump - they need a stud in the secondary for me to go that far. They do have some talent here that could turn out better than expected, though.

 

[IrishLion]

Overall, what do you think? And are classes like this "good enough" to get Notre Dame over the hump?

Not this class alone... but if Johnson, Tyree and Mayer pan out as 5-star guys, and Watts and Brunelle can be more-complete versions of their athletic counter-parts on the current roster, AND if they keep the momentum with the '21 class, then this is a playoff roster in two years, and a championship roster in three or four years.

They also need the OL to not be a total liability, but I'm not worried about that right now.

The thing that has held ND back is (1) QB and (2) skill talent.

ND's has improved depth enough across the board that an elite QB could cause the team to break through the ceiling and do something great... but Book isn't that guy. Phil has a shot if he figures out how to take the layups underneath between plays where he's throwing 60-yard bombs and running over LB's.

Conversely, you don't need an elite QB if you have enough skill around them. Book is a championship QB if you give him a RB with elite speed and a more-developed version of Lenzy to play a full season opposite a guy like Claypool.

The '20 and '21 classes will get ND over that hump... if they develop the studs in '20 and keep the '21 class together.


OH! And they need to keep Clark Lea. It all falls apart without that guy making halftime adjustments every game

 

[irishff1014]

We also have to consider Pryor as transfer. I still think he bring value to the defense.

 

[BabyIrish]

We also have to consider Pryor as transfer. I still think he bring value to the defense.

That's true even though we don't get him for four years, that's a top 100 pick up.
Also, our 2021 team average is 95.95. Certainly, there's still plenty of time for the sites to devalue our commits and bring that average down but, that's just downright absurd for us. I agree with Lion if we keep this momentum going in 2021 and do it on the defensive side of the ball, then it's more than enough to get us over the hump.

 

[NDdomer2]

I think we have seen over the years that sometimes those underrated/late adds can really boost the class and the program. Maybe not always as everyday contributors but as depth and special team players. 17 players is really small, who are those last 3 could make a bigger difference than we think.

Think someone like Ade Ogundeji - 3 652 nationally (i know he committed in summer before, just saying guys like this are out there still)

 

[NDRock]

I feel like we are a few playmakers away from being able to play with anyone. We've got talent and depth along the lines and most positions. If we can continue with the trend of the '20 and '21 classes (grabbing 2/3 elite ranked guys) , this could be an exciting run the next few years. In Tyler We Trust.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

Early signing period approaches. Currently #12 in the country, more likely to move down than up. Seems incongruent with "top 10" classes ND signed in 2017 and 2018.

Two five star players (Johnson, Tyree). Seven four star players.

Of the four star players, I think you can easily make the case for some (like Jordan Bothelo) being underrated and some (like Drew Pyne) being overrated so it's a wash.

The 3-star players are what's crazy to me. Xavier Watts would be a 95+ rating guy if he played in California and not Nebraska. Jay Brunelle being an 86 rating is purely absurd. He should, at minimum, be a low 4-star at either DB or WR.

It seems like the main thing driving down the ratings is the size of the class -- 17 total commits. That's only about two-thirds full relative to the 25 cap. Georgia and Texas have higher ranked classes with similar numbers of commits. Everyone else in the top 10 is in the 20+ category.

Overall, what do you think? And are classes like this "good enough" to get Notre Dame over the hump?

Why is Pyne overrated? Because he is a 3 star on 247 and a 4 star top 200 on ESPN and Rivals? I mean didn't the kid finish top 7 at the elite 11 (I know that doesn't mean sh*t). I think Pyne could be a Baker Mayfield, but I don't kn ow if he ever sees the field with Tyler B coming in.

We also have to consider Pryor as transfer. I still think he bring value to the defense.

Absolutely. Other teams ge0t credit to their recruiting score for getting JUCO recruits right? And we know Pryor has talent and some experience and has 2 years at ND (Similiar to a JUCO transfer.

I think we have seen over the years that sometimes those underrated/late adds can really boost the class and the program. Maybe not always as everyday contributors but as depth and special team players. 17 players is really small, who are those last 3 could make a bigger difference than we think.

Think someone like Ade Ogundeji - 3 652 nationally (i know he committed in summer before, just saying guys like this are out there still)

Yup. Prime examples are JOK (Wooooooo) and JGH.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

I forgot to mention Landen Bartleson is the most underrated recruit in this class. I don't understand how he is a 3 star. But, I'm glad ND got him and not Meatchicken!

 

[T Town Tommy]

Overall, what do you think? And are classes like this "good enough" to get Notre Dame over the hump?

Not one class. But it seems to be a good building block if the Irish can string together 2-3 classes in a row. I don't buy in to the player rankings as much as I do if they fit the system you have. String together 2-3 classes like that and hit on a few players that develop more than their rankings were and you got something going. Miss on a class or position group and it can go south pretty quickly. Build the depth that creates high level competition on the practice field and in the weight room and then coach them up. Oh... and a good, not great QB, helps especially if you can surround them with some game changers.

https://247sports.com/college/alaba...-looks-for-on-the-recruiting-trail-136154624/

Saw this article about Saban and recruiting and thought it was interesting, especially when he talks about recruiting players to fit his system. That's why I think a school like Wisconsin has success to a certain degree. They have an identity, play a certain system, and go after the players that fit it. I don't think Wisconsin has near the high ceiling as Notre Dame, but their ability to stay true to their system keeps them relevant.

 

[Mihalko35]

Overall, what do you think? And are classes like this "good enough" to get Notre Dame over the hump?

Frankly, no. You need four top-5 classes to have a good probability of winning the nat'l championship. Even then, luck will play a part. That's what Holtz had during his years and he only won one.

 

[stpeteirish]

Any idea who we add besides Henderson?

 

[Armyirish47]

Frankly, no. You need four top-5 classes to have a good probability of winning the nat'l championship. Even then, luck will play a part. That's what Holtz had during his years and he only won one.

Fit matters more than rankings...up to a point.

For example - Clemson!

2009: No. 36 nationally, (13 enrollees)
2010: No. 27 nationally, (20 enrollees)
2011: No. 10 nationally, (28 enrollees)
2012: No. 20 nationally, (15 enrollees)
2013: No. 15 nationally, (22 enrollees)
2014: No. 16 nationally, (19 enrollees)
2015: No. 9 nationally, (24 enrollees)
2016: No. 11 nationally (21 enrollees)
2017: No. 16 nationally (14 enrollees)
2018: No. 7 nationally (17 enrollees)

 

[NDdomer2]

Fit matters more than rankings...up to a point.

For example - Clemson!

2009: No. 36 nationally, (13 enrollees)
2010: No. 27 nationally, (20 enrollees)
2011: No. 10 nationally, (28 enrollees)
2012: No. 20 nationally, (15 enrollees)
2013: No. 15 nationally, (22 enrollees)
2014: No. 16 nationally, (19 enrollees)
2015: No. 9 nationally, (24 enrollees)
2016: No. 11 nationally (21 enrollees)
2017: No. 16 nationally (14 enrollees)
2018: No. 7 nationally (17 enrollees)

two elite QB's, and an all time great Dline.

 

[IrishLax]

two elite QB's, and an all time great Dline.

One of the most underrated things is that a 100 rating QB is worth a LOT more than a 100 rating offensive linemen... but they both count for the same number of points. That's one of the primary reasons recruiting rankings are flawed.

 

[Luckylucci]

Yes, I think classes like this are good enough to get over the hump. But i said classes because it needs to be more than one and they need to fit with previous/future classes.

ND will never consistently recruit top 5 classes because of numbers. There will be a ‘big’ class every 3rd or 4th year and those will have a chance. But until we move towards even more roster turnover (which I hope they don’t) not much sense in looking at team rankings. Like others have stated avg rating and fit are much more important.

In that regard, we landed our #1 TE, WR, RB, and OT. On defense we landed our #1 Shark, 3T, and NT. Now the rankings won’t support that but they never will. It’s about getting the best possible player for the ND program and we did that.

The most common concern, for most, is DB. Because I’m higher on the potential of this group, I think the class is better than most. Bartelson earned his OSU offer at a camp by running a 4.36 40. That seemed like a major stretch until you watch his film. He’s blazing fast. Time to coach em up. Though Lewis doesn’t play strictly CB and may be a S, he’s just a good football player. He does things on tape that seasoned DB’s do. Route recognition and tracking the ball seem like positives while he’d have to be considered to have elite ball skills for a DB. He’s not nearly the ‘project’ some make him out to be.

Lastly, what some seem to forget is ND isn’t sitting in 12th place because they couldn’t get more 4 star players. ND said no to numerous 4 star talents for the sake of roster continuity. If this staff wanted more roster turnover they could have done so and easily put this class in the top 10. Probably somewhere around 6-8.

 

[RDU Irish]

Per 247 - Clemson has 4 of the top 16 overall currently and favored for two more. #1 DT, #4 SDE, #13 QB, #16 RB and favored for #3 SDE and #5 ILB. Insult to injury - they round out their collection of 5 star talent with #24 DT and #26 CB. So 3 DL in the fold with one more in the mix. And elite QB/RB combo. Expect more of the same from Dabo and Co.