zelezo vlk
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People acting like the gang during the oil crisis.
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Hurricane (The Cyclone) Season 2017
- Thread starter BGIF
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People acting like the gang during the oil crisis.
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk
Hello Miami!
Hello Miami!
Here Comes Irma!
The National Hurricane Center 2 am advisory projects Cat 4 Irma to be playing havoc with the Northern Leeward Island by mid-week and to be around Crooked Island in the Outward Bahamas around 8 pm on Friday and smacking the big island of The Bahamas Saturday morning.
Without any deviation from that track the Miami area would be next Sunday BUT that's 6 days away. High and low pressure centers and the jet stream will influence the track significantly.
The spaghetti models show the storm going west into the gulf OR east up the Atlantic coastline. Most of the models, at this time, track the storm range to Alabama in the west and the Carolinas to the east.
Hello Miami!
Here Comes Irma!
The National Hurricane Center 2 am advisory projects Cat 4 Irma to be playing havoc with the Northern Leeward Island by mid-week and to be around Crooked Island in the Outward Bahamas around 8 pm on Friday and smacking the big island of The Bahamas Saturday morning.
Without any deviation from that track the Miami area would be next Sunday BUT that's 6 days away. High and low pressure centers and the jet stream will influence the track significantly.
The spaghetti models show the storm going west into the gulf OR east up the Atlantic coastline. Most of the models, at this time, track the storm range to Alabama in the west and the Carolinas to the east.
NHC 8 am update Irma moving S.W. Threatening Cuba
NHC 8 am update Irma moving S.W. Threatening Cuba
HURRICANE IRMA
NHC 8 am update Irma moving S.W. Threatening Cuba
HURRICANE IRMA
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NDRock
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This could be bad.
Old Man Mike
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As a scientific aside: just so people don't get into an erroneous "fact space" about Global Climate Change with all this recent Hurricane trouble, I've listened for a few decades now to one media statement that has never been correctly described. When scientists saw GCC coming, they did NOT predict MORE hurricanes in the Atlantic (unless excess energy infusion got extremely bad) but rather excess chances for more powerful storms once they DID develop. This is scientifically "lawful." More ocean energy means more energy to input into the vortex. This is a statistics game and doesn't mean that EVERY hurricane will be super strong.
In my decades of attending the AAAS symposia on this, the scientists regularly despaired of the pop-science media getting these sorts of distinctions correct. Note that this doesn't mean that GCC is ho-hum. I assume that no one is anxious for ANY more super storms developing.
In my decades of attending the AAAS symposia on this, the scientists regularly despaired of the pop-science media getting these sorts of distinctions correct. Note that this doesn't mean that GCC is ho-hum. I assume that no one is anxious for ANY more super storms developing.
Hurricane Irma strengthens to Category 4, 'increasing chance' could affect Florida: NHC - ABC News
By TARA FOWLEREMILY SHAPIRO Sep 4, 2017, 4:06 PM ET
By TARA FOWLEREMILY SHAPIRO Sep 4, 2017, 4:06 PM ET
Spaghetti models indicate, AT THIS TIME, that on Sunday Irma will take about a 70 degree right turn to the North and head up the center of the Florida Peninsula. Lots of time, lots of variables.
IF, it takes this track where do you evacuate the people?
In good weather and normal traffic, it's 6 hours (400+ miles) from Miami to the GA state line.
9 hours (600 miles) from Key West.
NOAA: Hurricane Irma Projected Path, Spaghetti Models
IF, it takes this track where do you evacuate the people?
In good weather and normal traffic, it's 6 hours (400+ miles) from Miami to the GA state line.
9 hours (600 miles) from Key West.
NOAA: Hurricane Irma Projected Path, Spaghetti Models
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Florida Gov. Rick Scott declares state of emergency ahead of Category 4 Hurricane Irma | Fox News
Irma
Published September 04, 2017 Fox News
Irma
Published September 04, 2017 Fox News
C
Cackalacky
Guest
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">8 am Special Advisory: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Irma?src=hash">#Irma</a> is now a category 5 <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/hurricane?src=hash">#hurricane</a> with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) More: <a href="https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb">https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb</a> <a href="https://t.co/QU1LWq7QsA">pic.twitter.com/QU1LWq7QsA</a></p>— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) <a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/905041935139786752">September 5, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Irma is a well-defined Cat 5 monster as of now.
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Irma is a well-defined Cat 5 monster as of now.
C
Cackalacky
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The eye of a category 5 hurricane. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Irma?src=hash">#Irma</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GOES16?src=hash">#GOES16</a> <a href="https://t.co/eATVZspJZx">pic.twitter.com/eATVZspJZx</a></p>— NASA SPoRT (@NASA_SPoRT) <a href="https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/905040749523333120">September 5, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
C
Cackalacky
Guest
Irma tracking to hit Miami as Cat 4
Jose forming right behind Irma and heading NW.
Katia forming off east coast of Mexico and heading ESE into Gulf.
JFC
Jose forming right behind Irma and heading NW.
Katia forming off east coast of Mexico and heading ESE into Gulf.
JFC
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These are the times that try men's souls
These are the times that try men's souls
Whether a governor, a county manager, a mayor, a Emergency Management Services, or weatherperson 20 million Floridians and the mass media are going to be calling for your heads as Monday morning (a week from now) quarterbacks.
A couple hours of ago Irma was forecast to brush Cuba, nail Key West, then head northeast into the Everglades. Now the LONG RANGE, 5 Day Projection has Irma moving further north of Cuba and turning North about 120 miles before Key West.
Yesterday evacuations were ordered for Key West. The Hurricane party crowd will start grousing about the "damn forecasters" but if they take a look at the photo of Irma Cackalacky posted this is one BIG ASS STORM. It's got hurricane winds extending extending 60 miles or so outside it 30 mile eye. Which would still reach to the 120 miles to Key West on the CURRENT PROJECTION. It isn't going to matter much where it makes landfall in Florida as Irma 120 mile hurricane wind girth is than the 121 mile widest width of Florida. Irama's Tropical Winds extend out 175 miles or so.
Right now Irma is PROJECTED to make landfall somewhere Key Largo (cue Bogie) and head through Homestead (Hello Andrew!) before heading into the National and State Preserves (drowning Alligator Alley, aka I-75) below Lake Okeechobee.
Apparently the BIG Bermuda High's clockwise rotation is exerting more influence on Irma than yesterday, OR the Jet Stream is pushing it further east, or the Hurricane of the Mexican coast is factoring in, OR, OR, OR. Still 4 or 5 days to go at 15 mph.
As for those beleaguered elected, appointed, or hired officials, and prognosticators, they have the safety of 20 million Floridians in their hands. About a million live in the Panhandle which should be safe if you don't look at the Spaghetti Models. So that leaves up to 19 million that could face evacuation orders. Some have already started, Key West and the Miami-Dade high risk people. But where do they all go? There's basically 2 interstates running North/South I-75 on the west coast and I-95 on the East. I-4 runs into i-95.
When the Key West and company folks head north, some of the Homestead, Miami, Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale folks are also going to be jumping on the same highways as wel,l not to mention those folks in the Lake Okeechobee region, and some west coast folks not wanting to end up like Houstonians.
Do they head for Orlando? Daytona? Or the Georgia State line almost 600 miles and 9 hours from Key West under a normal drive. How soon before those interstates look like a I-5 during rush hour and raging brush fires? Or highways to the Jersey shore on summer Friday night?
Get a hotel room where? How much higher is Orlando than West Palm? Jacksonville? Uh, uh. The smart folks there will be closing down their hotels to avoid lawsuits and to get an early jump on those hotel rooms that are going fast in Georgia. To the Carolinas? Check the Spaghetti models most show the storm going north to the Tennessee or the Carolinas. I have a family member in Wilmington NC that went to several stores today to find bottled water most were sold out. IF Irma gets there it's not going to get there until mid to late NEXT week. She's got sheets of plywood, tarps, rope, additional water, on the garage, all her jewelry and the important papers, will, property deed, and mortgage, bank and stock account, 401K and Roth documents in the car ready to go. I asked what would happen IF her car got caught on a flooded road and she and hshe had to be airlifted out like a Houstonian ... and the papers were drown. She added mailing a copy of the documents to her daughter in Colorado tomorrow by overnight delivery, to her 3 page check list of things to do before Irma gets there, including buying a generator. I pointed out that IF she found one, she would also need 4 or 5, filled 20 gallon gas cans to keep it operational until the gas stations started pumping or power was restored. The 3 page list got longer.
This is a logistics nightmare. That was tipped off earlier today when it was announced that the at risk, infirm, etc will be transported by the National Guard ... no not the Florida National Guard but North Carolina's Air Guard, a couple states away. The powers that be have already recognized that the FL resources are going to be overloaded and "safe places" may be few and far between. On Tuesday the US Navy ordered all Navy personnel, contractors, and families evacuated from the Key West area.
Irma is still 4 or 5 days away from U.S. landfall.
These are the times that try men's souls
Whether a governor, a county manager, a mayor, a Emergency Management Services, or weatherperson 20 million Floridians and the mass media are going to be calling for your heads as Monday morning (a week from now) quarterbacks.
A couple hours of ago Irma was forecast to brush Cuba, nail Key West, then head northeast into the Everglades. Now the LONG RANGE, 5 Day Projection has Irma moving further north of Cuba and turning North about 120 miles before Key West.
Yesterday evacuations were ordered for Key West. The Hurricane party crowd will start grousing about the "damn forecasters" but if they take a look at the photo of Irma Cackalacky posted this is one BIG ASS STORM. It's got hurricane winds extending extending 60 miles or so outside it 30 mile eye. Which would still reach to the 120 miles to Key West on the CURRENT PROJECTION. It isn't going to matter much where it makes landfall in Florida as Irma 120 mile hurricane wind girth is than the 121 mile widest width of Florida. Irama's Tropical Winds extend out 175 miles or so.
Right now Irma is PROJECTED to make landfall somewhere Key Largo (cue Bogie) and head through Homestead (Hello Andrew!) before heading into the National and State Preserves (drowning Alligator Alley, aka I-75) below Lake Okeechobee.
Apparently the BIG Bermuda High's clockwise rotation is exerting more influence on Irma than yesterday, OR the Jet Stream is pushing it further east, or the Hurricane of the Mexican coast is factoring in, OR, OR, OR. Still 4 or 5 days to go at 15 mph.
As for those beleaguered elected, appointed, or hired officials, and prognosticators, they have the safety of 20 million Floridians in their hands. About a million live in the Panhandle which should be safe if you don't look at the Spaghetti Models. So that leaves up to 19 million that could face evacuation orders. Some have already started, Key West and the Miami-Dade high risk people. But where do they all go? There's basically 2 interstates running North/South I-75 on the west coast and I-95 on the East. I-4 runs into i-95.
When the Key West and company folks head north, some of the Homestead, Miami, Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale folks are also going to be jumping on the same highways as wel,l not to mention those folks in the Lake Okeechobee region, and some west coast folks not wanting to end up like Houstonians.
Do they head for Orlando? Daytona? Or the Georgia State line almost 600 miles and 9 hours from Key West under a normal drive. How soon before those interstates look like a I-5 during rush hour and raging brush fires? Or highways to the Jersey shore on summer Friday night?
Get a hotel room where? How much higher is Orlando than West Palm? Jacksonville? Uh, uh. The smart folks there will be closing down their hotels to avoid lawsuits and to get an early jump on those hotel rooms that are going fast in Georgia. To the Carolinas? Check the Spaghetti models most show the storm going north to the Tennessee or the Carolinas. I have a family member in Wilmington NC that went to several stores today to find bottled water most were sold out. IF Irma gets there it's not going to get there until mid to late NEXT week. She's got sheets of plywood, tarps, rope, additional water, on the garage, all her jewelry and the important papers, will, property deed, and mortgage, bank and stock account, 401K and Roth documents in the car ready to go. I asked what would happen IF her car got caught on a flooded road and she and hshe had to be airlifted out like a Houstonian ... and the papers were drown. She added mailing a copy of the documents to her daughter in Colorado tomorrow by overnight delivery, to her 3 page check list of things to do before Irma gets there, including buying a generator. I pointed out that IF she found one, she would also need 4 or 5, filled 20 gallon gas cans to keep it operational until the gas stations started pumping or power was restored. The 3 page list got longer.
This is a logistics nightmare. That was tipped off earlier today when it was announced that the at risk, infirm, etc will be transported by the National Guard ... no not the Florida National Guard but North Carolina's Air Guard, a couple states away. The powers that be have already recognized that the FL resources are going to be overloaded and "safe places" may be few and far between. On Tuesday the US Navy ordered all Navy personnel, contractors, and families evacuated from the Key West area.
Irma is still 4 or 5 days away from U.S. landfall.
MNIrishman
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Curiosity question: when FEMA or the national guard mobilize to natural disaster-prone states, do those states eventually have to pay back the cost of subsidizing the higher risk associated with living there? Or are these efforts sponsored mostly by the federal government?
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We just helped move our middle son and his family to Fleming Island (Jacksonville area) a few weeks back as he's trying to get a business started. He called me Sunday. He and my 6 year old grandson were headed to Sam's Club to buy water. He called me back and said Sam's Club was almost out of water already as many had started to prepare for Irma.
They haven't bought a house yet and are staying in an apartment, so fortunately they won't have to worry about a house, but he does have a very nice boat that is just a year old and a 24' box van for his business. It still has some of their contents in it. Obviously we're hoping that by the time it gets to his area, it will have lost some of its steam.
They haven't bought a house yet and are staying in an apartment, so fortunately they won't have to worry about a house, but he does have a very nice boat that is just a year old and a 24' box van for his business. It still has some of their contents in it. Obviously we're hoping that by the time it gets to his area, it will have lost some of its steam.
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Good question. I don't know, but would imagine something like this isn't charged back to a state. Cost are probably collected by the Feds for budgeting purposes.
The Weather Channel just commented that Irma is 350 miles wide "cloud to cloud".
First Cat 5 since Matthew.
Tampa is issuing 10 (unfilled) sand bags per homeowner. Proof of address is required. (OMG Jim Crow!). 10 sand bags? They're only about 6-8 inches tall when filled.
St Martin's is in Irma's eye.
Worst winds (185 mph) about 10 miles outside the eye. Hurricane winds extend out another 40 miles for a diameter of 100 miles.
Puerto Rico in the path.
Up to 20 foot surge could hit Bahamas and Virgin Islands.
Dropping to Cat 4 before hitting Florida.
Generac running commericals on Weather Channel Irma coverage "starting at $1,949. Call now to SCHEDULE your appointment." No mention of when they'll get there or when you'll get your's hooked up.
Traffic already "heavier" on US1 leaving The Keys.
Monday morning Irma projected to north and west of Miami with 120 mph winds and extending beyond the width of the state at that point.
First Cat 5 since Matthew.
Tampa is issuing 10 (unfilled) sand bags per homeowner. Proof of address is required. (OMG Jim Crow!). 10 sand bags? They're only about 6-8 inches tall when filled.
St Martin's is in Irma's eye.
Worst winds (185 mph) about 10 miles outside the eye. Hurricane winds extend out another 40 miles for a diameter of 100 miles.
Puerto Rico in the path.
Up to 20 foot surge could hit Bahamas and Virgin Islands.
Dropping to Cat 4 before hitting Florida.
Generac running commericals on Weather Channel Irma coverage "starting at $1,949. Call now to SCHEDULE your appointment." No mention of when they'll get there or when you'll get your's hooked up.
Traffic already "heavier" on US1 leaving The Keys.
Monday morning Irma projected to north and west of Miami with 120 mph winds and extending beyond the width of the state at that point.
woolybug25
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This is horrible news. This country is financial crisis as it is, with more than $70 billion of outstanding debt and an additional $50 billion in pension obligations. With 58% of their country living under the poverty line with no means to leave the island, no means to rebuild, etc. This country is in big, big, trouble.
definitely the latter. if not, Louisiana would now be Greece
I believe I heard on the Weather Channel that your not favorite president has already declared it a disaster area. "Technically speaking, Puerto Rico isn't a separate country, but a territory of the United States, subject to the plenary power of Congress. At the same time, however, Puerto Rico is a commonwealth with its own constitution, bicameral legislature, chief executive, and judiciary." As such they look to Washington for assistance particularly financial. I would not be surprised to see economic relief go beyond disaster relief and soften some of the debt where a deaf ear had been.
Back to the weather.
The Weather Channel showed a graphic that Irma now has Tropical Storm Force winds of 39-73 mph extending 350 miles wide and Hurricane Force winds of 74+ mph 100 miles across (diameter). She went on to note that the 100 mile hurricane wind zone is the distance between Naples FL and Fort Lauderdale.
As for Puerto Rico the topography is not like Florida's. The volcanic formed island has mountains and valleys and is subject to mudslides from the heavy rains and wind.
C
Cackalacky
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Numerous models have it heading into the Carolinas after Florida. I will begin my prepping tonight.
To echo BGIF's concerns, the logistics of this is frightening. I hope people maintain calm and help each other out to avoid the oncoming devastation.
The 8 am NHC graphics now project Irma's cone, by 2 am Monday, to extend above Gainsville looking like its chasing dshans in Jacksonville. (Dick call me if you need a place to crash if you have nothing closer.)
Jim Cantore on the Weather Channel saying the EURO Spaghetti Models are projecting Irma to shift to the left possibly taking Irma to the Panhandle, Pensacola and Alabama (Dick maybe you want to stay home OR not ...) OR eastward to GA and Savannah.
Cantore says the center of the storm is still impacting the center of Florida
Gov Scott in The Keys, tourists have been told to go. Residents will get the word later this morning. "We've learned from Houston." Florida population 24% bigger than when Hurricane Andrew arrived.
A "trough" in the midwest is bringing rain to the east coast dropping temperatures and pushing the hurricane models eastward while the Bermuda high is countering.
Jim Cantore on the Weather Channel saying the EURO Spaghetti Models are projecting Irma to shift to the left possibly taking Irma to the Panhandle, Pensacola and Alabama (Dick maybe you want to stay home OR not ...) OR eastward to GA and Savannah.
Cantore says the center of the storm is still impacting the center of Florida
Gov Scott in The Keys, tourists have been told to go. Residents will get the word later this morning. "We've learned from Houston." Florida population 24% bigger than when Hurricane Andrew arrived.
A "trough" in the midwest is bringing rain to the east coast dropping temperatures and pushing the hurricane models eastward while the Bermuda high is countering.
NDohio
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Numerous models have it heading into the Carolinas after Florida. I will begin my prepping tonight.
To echo BGIF's concerns, the logistics of this is frightening. I hope people maintain calm and help each other out to avoid the oncoming devastation.
You staying put or heading north? Some of these path projections are frightening.
Numerous models have it heading into the Carolinas after Florida. I will begin my prepping tonight.
To echo BGIF's concerns, the logistics of this is frightening. I hope people maintain calm and help each other out to avoid the oncoming devastation.
Where were you for Hugo? About a week or 10 days later I flew into Hickory, NC where we were doing a turnkey project and when I looked out the plane window I commented to the guy next to me, "I had no idea you got hit so badly with tornadoes." "No", he replied, "that's Hugo damage." I noted that I lived in tornado country and twisted tops in multiple spots were telltales of tornadoes that touched down briefly and then moved on. Hurricans can spawn flurries of tornadoes.
He lives near the beach and needs to get inland (higher ground) but which way to go is the question.
Those models show it running to eastern GA, SC, NC, and VA. Other models, the EURO ensemble show it tracking westerly as far as Mobile AL and heading into central GA and the western part of GA.
I have family in Wilmington NC, Virginia Beach, and northern VA. They're all monitoring the models trying to figure out IF to go and where to go. Those in Wilmington and VA BCH are all just a few feet above sea level on flat ground ala Houston. Nobody will be at the beach house on Cape Hatteras this week or possibly a lot longer.
NDohio
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Yeah, the width of this storm is what is causing me great concern. I am ~ 150 miles inland and if it hits Charleston or MB, I'm gonna get it to. I wasn't here for Hugo but have seen some pretty horrible pictures of what damage was done in our area.