General team info

[Bogtrotter07]

I don't care about making predictions, nor do I care about what others predict.

I am okay with an outsider saying 9 wins.

Here is my problem. Everyone is reporting that Max was charged with MJ possession, and possession of a firearm.

The verbiage varies, but that is what Sports Center and all of them have said. Please tell me that new charges have been filed. Ones probably not on the book. Last I checked the gun charge was a misdemeanor transportation charge.

And did they really eliminate all of the charges against all of the others in the car? Because that is what these distinguished reporters are communicating!

By missing that Kelly fired Redfield, they miss the addition through subtraction factor. Which may be important in the seasons success. Who knows, Studstill may be able to really let loose now that the upper class maelstrom that was Max is out of the way. Who knows until we see?

And the other thing, no reporter has taken any of the ND nuance into account for this whole affair. These are just Kelly's preemptive discipline results. He was careful to say that this had not been adjudicated legally, or academically. Big difference. Far from reality.

And as far as the quarterback situation, I would expect every reporter to say the same thing. But that is because they don't understand the dynamics of the situation, or the persons involved. I have no idea what will happen, but I agree with Kelly, these two kids are two important to bench one.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I'm not convinced we have playoff level coaching at DC. In fact, if we did, I think we would have made the playoffs last year.

That's possible. BvG definitely has to perform this year. But we had the best offense in the country through the first half of last season, and despite losing Fuller, we ought to be even better this year. That, paired with the softest schedule we've had in years, makes an 8-win season very unlikely. Multiple units would have to fail miserably for that to happen.

 

[IrishBroker]

1st, 10 wins or we clean house.

2nd, with this offense we shouldn't need a defense.

Famous last words....High octane offenses are a dime a dozen.

 

[IrishBroker]

We've got playoff level talent and coaching. It's fair to predict that some combination of our inexperience at WR, our lack of depth at DB, and instability at QB will keep us from making the playoff, but an 8-win season would require several disastrous games where we fall far short of our potential. It could happen, but it's not likely with our schedule.

And I don't' mean that we are necessarily a bad team, but I could absolutely see us losing close games to MSU, USC, Stanford, and dropping the opening game to TX simply due to the environment and first game "kinks".

It's HOW we lose that is going to tell me about this team.

I hope I'm wrong and we win 10 or 11...

I think next year is Nat title discussion.

 

[arrowryan]

And I don't' mean that we are necessarily a bad team, but I could absolutely see us losing close games to MSU, USC, Stanford, and dropping the opening game to TX simply due to the environment and first game "kinks".

It's HOW we lose that is going to tell me about this team.

I hope I'm wrong and we win 10 or 11...

I think next year is Nat title discussion.

Won't those teams be experiencing the same things too? And Texas should experience greater first game kinks since they are breaking in a new quarterback.

 

[ScooterIrish]

That's possible. BvG definitely has to perform this year. But we had the best offense in the country through the first half of last season, and despite losing Fuller, we ought to be even better this year. That, paired with the softest schedule we've had in years, makes an 8-win season very unlikely. Multiple units would have to fail miserably for that to happen.

Oh I completely agree. I think Kelly's best offensive coached season was last year. If our defense is above-average, it should be a very strong year.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

And I don't' mean that we are necessarily a bad team, but I could absolutely see us losing close games to MSU, USC, Stanford, and dropping the opening game to TX simply due to the environment and first game "kinks".

Here's our projected win % against those four teams: Texas (.697), MSU (.621), Stanford (.475) and USC (.369). We'll be strongly favored against the rest of our slate.

So we're favored against Texas and MSU, Stanford is a coin-flip, and should be a dog against USC, but you expect us to lose all of those games-- every game against a quality opponent this season? That's not a reasonable prediction right now. Anything less than 10 wins against this schedule will be a serious disappointment, and create some very uncomfortable situations for Kelly's staff.

 

[Luckylucci]

Here's our projected win % against those four teams: Texas (.697), MSU (.621), Stanford (.475) and USC (.369). We'll be strongly favored against the rest of our slate.

So we're favored against Texas and MSU, Stanford is a coin-flip, and should be a dog against USC, but you expect us to lose all of those games-- every game against a quality opponent this season? That's not a reasonable prediction right now. Anything less than 10 wins against this schedule will be a serious disappointment, and create some very uncomfortable situations for Kelly's staff.

Yea, if we don't get to 10 wins, either something more egregious took place or staff members will be looking for new jobs.

 

[irishff1014]

Here's our projected win % against those four teams: Texas (.697), MSU (.621), Stanford (.475) and USC (.369). We'll be strongly favored against the rest of our slate.

So we're favored against Texas and MSU, Stanford is a coin-flip, and should be a dog against USC, but you expect us to lose all of those games-- every game against a quality opponent this season? That's not a reasonable prediction right now. Anything less than 10 wins against this schedule will be a serious disappointment, and create some very uncomfortable situations for Kelly's staff.

This is a very true statement.

 

[IrishBroker]

Here's our projected win % against those four teams: Texas (.697), MSU (.621), Stanford (.475) and USC (.369). We'll be strongly favored against the rest of our slate.

So we're favored against Texas and MSU, Stanford is a coin-flip, and should be a dog against USC, but you expect us to lose all of those games-- every game against a quality opponent this season? That's not a reasonable prediction right now. Anything less than 10 wins against this schedule will be a serious disappointment, and create some very uncomfortable situations for Kelly's staff.

I said I could see us losing close games to them.


What was our % to win against Virginia last year (one of the worst teams in CFB)? Or BC (even worse)? We narrowly escaped those. But I'm sure the % was very much in our favor.

It's just my opinion, but do I think we squeeze out those close ones this year? Is our team better? That's the difference.




IMO:

The defense is going to be a HUGE question mark this year. The WR core has talent...but virtually no production and nobody here can claim they're going to be any good when game time comes.

These things bother me when trying to find wins on a schedule and when trying to call close games.

(I'm just pointing out my own personal rational...not trying to say you're necessarily wrong)

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I said I could see us losing close games to them.


What was our % to win against Virginia last year (one of the worst teams in CFB)? Or BC (even worse)? We narrowly escaped those. But I'm sure the % was very much in our favor.

It's just my opinion, but do I think we squeeze out those close ones this year? Is our team better? That's the difference.

IMO:

The defense is going to be a HUGE question mark this year. The WR core has talent...but virtually no production and nobody here can claim they're going to be any good when game time comes.

These things bother me when trying to find wins on a schedule and when trying to call close games.

(I'm just pointing out my own personal rational...not trying to say you're necessarily wrong)

You are exaggerating our weaknesses and discounting our strengths (as well as the softness of our schedule). Here's another advanced model that rates us as a top tier playoff contender:

TIER 1: CONTENDERS
1. Alabama (projected S&P+ rank: 1)
2. Clemson (3)
3. Florida State (5)
4. LSU (2)
5. Michigan (6)
6. Stanford (16)
7. Oklahoma (4)
8. Notre Dame (11)

In the SEC power rankings, I called this whole thing a trust exercise. All of these teams have flaws and questions they need to answer, but I trust them far more than everybody else.

The biggest risks here, compared to the numbers, are Notre Dame and Stanford.

The Irish have two primary questions: Can they figure out a peaceful, happy quarterback arrangement, and can they avoid too many huge breakdowns on defense? If the answer is yes to both, they are a top-five team.

Stanford has a new quarterback and continued issues with defensive line depth. But the Cardinal have Christian McCaffrey, and McCaffrey’s got some nice complementary pieces.

Our likely outcomes are 9-11 wins. 8 or less is as likely as going undefeated. Not impossible, but based on an objective analysis of our projected quality against the softest schedule we've had in years, 8 wins or less is extremely unlikely.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Famous last words....High octane offenses are a dime a dozen.

Who on our schedule do you see as having a high octane offense (not that Idon't see any)

 

[IrishBroker]

You are exaggerating our weaknesses and discounting our strengths (as well as the softness of our schedule). Here's another advanced model that rates us as a top tier playoff contender:



Our likely outcomes are 9-11 wins. 8 or less is as likely as going undefeated. Not impossible, but based on an objective analysis of our projected quality against the softest schedule we've had in years, 8 wins or less is extremely unlikely.

Fair enough...

I could say some on here are exaggerating our effectiveness on offense and at QB. If we don't pick a guy and stick with it, it's going to create a lot of inconsistency. And like I said, we have a ton of talent at WR, but there is something to be said for experience and having done it before.

I don't think I'm exaggerating, but I like the analysis and I'm open to new information.

I guess I can lighten up a bit about the team.

 

[IrishBroker]

Who on our schedule do you see as having a high octane offense (not that Idon't see any)

I'm saying in CFB in general.

There are PLENTY of teams out there that can put up points that aren't any good.

You made the comment that "we don't need a defense with this offense"

I disagree entirely with that statement.

 

[Wingman Ray]

And I don't' mean that we are necessarily a bad team, but I could absolutely see us losing close games to MSU, USC, Stanford, and dropping the opening game to TX simply due to the environment and first game "kinks".

It's HOW we lose that is going to tell me about this team.

I hope I'm wrong and we win 10 or 11...

I think next year is Nat title discussion.

So when Bama beats USC by 3 touchdowns in Texas week 1 and we are sweating out against teams like MSU and USC who has brand new QBs playing, does that mean ND has a snowball chance in Hades of reaching the playoff nor should?

 

[BobbyMac]

Our likely outcomes are 9-11 wins. 8 or less is as likely as going undefeated. Not impossible, but based on an objective analysis of our projected quality against the softest schedule we've had in years, 8 wins or less is extremely unlikely.

I make it a habit of not disagreeing with you but I'll have to side with Vegas on this one.

They think ND only has to beat the odds once against SC to be undefeated. They think they'll have to fail to live up to expectations 3 times to get to 8 wins.

I'm not a stats guy but them boys in Vegas have bought a lot of lights with money from people who disagree with them.

 

[Irish Insanity]

I'm saying in CFB in general.

There are PLENTY of teams out there that can put up points that aren't any good.

You made the comment that "we don't need a defense with this offense"

I disagree entirely with that statement.

And my post was directly in response to the quoted one. Which listed our wins 8-9.

 

[gkIrish]

I don't think anything IrishBroker is saying is unreasonable. I think we should win 9-10 games but I could easily see 8 wins without stretching. I am going to be very disappointed with less than 10 wins.

 

[irishfan]

I don't think anything IrishBroker is saying is unreasonable. I think we should win 9-10 games but I could easily see 8 wins without stretching. I am going to be very disappointed with less than 10 wins.

This is my thought too. Really no excuse (barring crazy injuries) for less than 10-2 with this schedule.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I make it a habit of not disagreeing with you but I'll have to side with Vegas on this one.

They think ND only has to beat the odds once against SC to be undefeated. They think they'll have to fail to live up to expectations 3 times to get to 8 wins.

I'm not a stats guy but them boys in Vegas have bought a lot of lights with money from people who disagree with them.

You're right that our odds of going undefeated are actually better than for winning 8 games or less. I was just trying to get Irish Broker to conceive of our win probabilities as a normal distribution, with 12-0 and 8-4 as both relatively unlikely "tails", and 9-3, 10-2, and 11-1 covering most of the bell curve in the middle.

 

[BobbyMac]

I don't think anything IrishBroker is saying is unreasonable. I think we should win 9-10 games but I could easily see 8 wins without stretching. I am going to be very disappointed with less than 10 wins.

Is saying the Irish should win 9-10 games the same thing to you as saying the Irish should lose 2-3 games?

 

[IrishBroker]

You're right that our odds of going undefeated are actually better than for winning 8 games or less. I was just trying to get Irish Broker to conceive of our win probabilities as a normal distribution, with 12-0 and 8-4 as both relatively unlikely "tails", and 9-3, 10-2, and 11-1 covering most of the bell curve in the middle.

And I appreciate your info. Good stuff.

 

[BobbyMac]

You're right that our odds of going undefeated are actually better than for winning 8 games or less. I was just trying to get Irish Broker to conceive of our win probabilities as a normal distribution, with 12-0 and 8-4 as both relatively unlikely "tails", and 9-3, 10-2, and 11-1 covering most of the bell curve in the middle.

OK. Next question for you. Rank the likely regular season outcomes.

I'll go:

10-2
11-1
12-0
9-3
Tom Herman buys house in Granger

 

[IrishBroker]

OK. Next question for you. Rank the likely regular season outcomes.

I'll go:

10-2
11-1
12-0
9-3
Tom Herman buys house in Granger

LOL. I think Herman is the next UT coach if Strong doesn't perform this year. Could be the first mid season firing this season. They will pay him an ungodly amount and ND will keep Kelly

9-3 (WhiskeyJack convinced me to raise my standards)
10-2
8-4
11-1

 

[gkIrish]

Is saying the Irish should win 9-10 games the same thing to you as saying the Irish should lose 2-3 games?

I meant at least 9-10 games

 

[Whiskeyjack]

OK. Next question for you. Rank the likely regular season outcomes.

I'll go:

10-2
11-1
12-0
9-3
Tom Herman buys house in Granger

2% for 12-0 (and in the playoffs)
8% for 11-1 (and in the playoffs)
15% for 11-1 (missing the playoffs)
40% for 10-2
30% for 9-3
5% for 8-4 or worse

 

[BobbyMac]

LOL. I think Herman is the next UT coach if Strong doesn't perform this year. Could be the first mid season firing this season. They will pay him an ungodly amount and ND will keep Kelly

9-3 (WhiskeyJack convinced me to raise my standards)
10-2
8-4
11-1

Yeah, I'm just playin'.

A&M, UT and Baylor are all wishing Herman was their coach right now. Hell, the TCU AD probably wishes Patterson would take an NFL job.

 

[woolybug25]

Overcast with 100% chance of 14-0.

 

[Ndaccountant]

60% of the time ND wins every time.

 

[BobbyMac]

2% for 12-0 (and in the playoffs)
8% for 11-1 (and in the playoffs)
15% for 11-1 (missing the playoffs)
40% for 10-2
30% for 9-3
5% for 8-4 or worse

Is that your gut or is that based 100% on FEI?