Expectations for 2012?

[Patulski]

You have seen what Kelly could do @ Cincy, so why couldn't he at ND?

I don't know about anybody else, but I've seen Kelly for two years at Notre Dame. I could carer less what he did at Cincy. In my mind, he has not overachieved one bit at Notre Dame. He has had a couple of massive failures ( Navy/Tulsa) and the only game that could be qualified as an upset was USC in 2010, but Barkely was injured. We haven't been as bad as we were in Weis's last two years, but that's not saying much.

So, I want to see him perform at Notre Dame. If there's more of the same (losing to inferior teams, sloppy play and turnovers, no upsets) I will have serious doubts of him lasting beyond 5 years. He needs to show that his program is progressing. That did not happen in year two. This is his 3rd year and he has no excuses. It's his program. He's got to show improvement.

 

[TheTurningPoint]

I don't know about anybody else, but I've seen Kelly for two years at Notre Dame. I could carer less what he did at Cincy. In my mind, he has not overachieved one bit at Notre Dame. He has had a couple of massive failures ( Navy/Tulsa) and the only game that could be qualified as an upset was USC in 2010, but Barkely was injured. We haven't been as bad as we were in Weis's last two years, but that's not saying much.

So, I want to see him perform at Notre Dame. If there's more of the same (losing to inferior teams, sloppy play and turnovers, no upsets) I will have serious doubts of him lasting beyond 5 years. He needs to show that his program is progressing. That did not happen in year two. This is his 3rd year and he has no excuses. It's his program. He's got to show improvement.

if you can't see improvement you are missing what building a program is about.

 

[Bluto]

Michigan State last year was an upset. Kelly had last years team in the position to win or at the very least be competitive in every game. If you look specifically at the South Florida, Michigan, USC and Florida State games bad QB play was the deal breaker in all of them. This years team will win 8 games. If a consistent QB emerges sky is the limit.

 

[Patulski]

Michigan State last year was an upset. Kelly had last years team in the position to win or at the very least be competitive in every game. If you look specifically at the South Florida, Michigan, USC and Florida State games bad QB play was the deal breaker in all of them. This years team will win 8 games. If a consistent QB emerges sky is the limit.

Blaming Rees instead of Kelly is simply wrong. It's Kelly's job to understand his players and consequently design an offense that minimizes turnovers, because turnovers are such an important factor in wins and losses. Kelly did a bad job of that. How else can you explain a turnover prone sophomore QB throwing the ball 411 times?

Do you think Ara or Holtz would put so much on the shoulders on an error prone sophomore? When Ara had Bill Zloch, he adapted his offense to minimize Zloch's weaknesses. In his first year when Holtz had Beurlein- who was not his ideal QB because he was not a good runner- Holtz minimized how much option he ran, but told Beurlein how many interceptions he could throw before he got benched. These great coaches weren't "system" coaches. They were coaches who adapted their system to their personnel, not the other way around.

The buck stops with the Head Coach designing the offense. Kelly's showed a stubborn commitment to his normal offense despite not having a QB that could run it properly. He didn't adapt and lost games he should have won. If he does the same thing this year, with the same kind of terrible execution, it's going to be a long season.

 

[Domer4ever]

I think this is a huge year for Brian Kelly going forward. Last year was pretty much a complete disaster and a step backwards with one catastrophic mistake after another and that stigma unfortunately carried over into the offseason with the Greenberry switch on NSD, the Tee Sheppard situation, and the eventual transfer of arguably the teams most talented defensive player in Aaron Lynch. It's been all bad and it's time for Brian Kelly to step up to the plate and show he is the big time coach he was brought in to be. This team imploded in big games last season and that included Kelly himself with the (agree or not) sideline antics that drew negative national attention to dividing the team with his comment to the media about "my players vs the previous regime's players" after the USC loss. For those making the excuse for him that "the players have to play" and he "he needs a QB" have to remember that Kelly sold himself when he took the job as someone who was going to develop the players on the roster with his forte being offense and coaching up QB's. So far, nothing could be further from reality. While some players have developed, QB continues to be this team's biggest weakness and if none of the QB's on the roster are able to step forward and become a consistent, productive QB that can get this team where it needs to be....then Kelly has nobody to blame but himself.

The schedule for this season is going to be difficult, but it is time for this team to step up and like any good program moving forward, win some of these difficult games that they are not expected to win. I think 8-4 is realistic, anything less and with any resemblance to last season and we could be seeing another change at the top on the horizon. Positive progression and seeing this team move forward is a must.

 

[Bluto]

Patulski the way you explain him sticking with it in most of the games we lost is that the offense was indeed moving the ball against South Florida, Michigan and USC (although to a lesser extent). In all three of those losses the O was moving the chains at crucial times. Unfortunately when they got into scoring position or had moved the ball into the other teams territory the QB (and in a few cases the RB) gave it away. In a couple other instances (USC) the QB gave the other team a very short field at critical times. With all that being said its pretty easy to point to that position as the lynch pin. In my opinion Kelly was stuck between a rock and a hard place when his crystal ball did not foresee Crist failing to show up against South Florida and then committing a turnover that will be shown in USC highlight films until the end of time.

As for Ara and Lou I don't recall either winning a bunch of games with a dude who was for all intents and purposes the third string QB when he enrolled.

 

[NDhoosier]

Blaming Rees instead of Kelly is simply wrong. It's Kelly's job to understand his players and consequently design an offense that minimizes turnovers, because turnovers are such an important factor in wins and losses. Kelly did a bad job of that. How else can you explain a turnover prone sophomore QB throwing the ball 411 times?

Do you think Ara or Holtz would put so much on the shoulders on an error prone sophomore? When Ara had Bill Zloch, he adapted his offense to minimize Zloch's weaknesses. In his first year when Holtz had Beurlein- who was not his ideal QB because he was not a good runner- Holtz minimized how much option he ran, but told Beurlein how many interceptions he could throw before he got benched. These great coaches weren't "system" coaches. They were coaches who adapted their system to their personnel, not the other way around.

The buck stops with the Head Coach designing the offense. Kelly's showed a stubborn commitment to his normal offense despite not having a QB that could run it properly. He didn't adapt and lost games he should have won. If he does the same thing this year, with the same kind of terrible execution, it's going to be a long season.

I dont agree with that, sure its the coaches job to understand their players and get them ready for each and every game. But a lot of Rees' mistakes were bonehead plays that had nothing to do with bad coaching, but poor player decision and just down-right *palm to the face* type of plays.

 

[HereComeTheIrish]

And may I say that your mane looked magnificent as you did ...

A gentleman and a scholar... I like that.

 

[Emcee77]

if you can't see improvement you are missing what building a program is about.

Yep. Reps.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

if you can't see improvement you are missing what building a program is about.

Building off TP's point, let's take a look at some advanced metrics of ND's team performance over the last 3 years...

Rushing Offense:
2009- 37th
2010- 35th
2011- 8th

Rushing Defense:
2009- 41st
2010- 13th
2011- 4th

ND hasn't dominated in the trenches like that since Holtz. I'd think an old-school guy like Patulski would be able to recognize and appreciate the importance of such things.

 

[chubler]

I agree that we're improving in the trenches and as a program, no doubt.

Against this schedule, I think progress is winning 8 games and cleaning up the turnovers and penalties. I think that would create a real, rock-solid solid foundation for us to build on, and would be more indicative of a change in the program than a miraculous 10 or 11 win season like we saw under Weis.

 

[GreatGolson]

I expect that rushing defense improves again

 

[TheTurningPoint]

I'd expect and explosive offense. I'd also expect a few surprises as far as who gets on the field. And I'd also say that a few familiar faces will shine to where it leads to something special.

 

[NDhoosier]

Building off TP's point, let's take a look at some advanced metrics of ND's team performance over the last 3 years...

Rushing Offense:
2009- 37th
2010- 35th
2011- 8th

Rushing Defense:
2009- 41st
2010- 13th
2011- 4th

ND hasn't dominated in the trenches like that since Holtz. I'd think an old-school guy like Patulski would be able to recognize and appreciate the importance of such things.

I knew we were good at stopping the run, but I had no idea they were that good. This front 7 could literally be the best in the nation next year. Aaron Lynch was not a run stopper, so his loss isnt going to hurt us in that regard. This is why the Navy game should be fun to watch, A team that average 300+ rushing yards a game may not make it to 150 next year in Dublin.

I also didnt realize we were ranked that high in our own running game. You just got me even more optimistic about the season Whiskeyjack. The running game should be better with 3 solid RBs and probably a better line than last year.

 

[Chamellion]

Regarding the rushing attack, if only if only Jonas had a fifth year

 

[NDBoiler]

I knew we were good at stopping the run, but I had no idea they were that good. This front 7 could literally be the best in the nation next year. Aaron Lynch was not a run stopper, so his loss isnt going to hurt us in that regard. This is why the Navy game should be fun to watch, A team that average 300+ rushing yards a game may not make it to 150 next year in Dublin.

I also didnt realize we were ranked that high in our own running game. You just got me even more optimistic about the season Whiskeyjack. The running game should be better with 3 solid RBs and probably a better line than last year.

The stats Whiskey listed are obtained from using a formula that is not the "traditional" way these stats are compiled by the NCAA so that may be why they seem a little shocking. If you look at Whiskey's original post, he linked to the site where he got the stats from. Just wanted to clarify that in case this was what you were thinking. ND was 54th nationally in rushing offense and 47th nationally in rushing defense in 2011 according to the NCAA. Regardless, they're still good, solid team stats.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

The stats Whiskey listed are obtained from using a formula that is not the "traditional" way these stats are compiled by the NCAA so that may be why they seem a little shocking. If you look at Whiskey's original post, he linked to the site where he got the stats from. Just wanted to clarify that in case this was what you were thinking. ND was 54th nationally in rushing offense and 47th nationally in rushing defense in 2011 according to the NCAA. Regardless, they're still good, solid team stats.

FO's stats are opponent-adjusted. The NCAA's are not.

 

[NDBoiler]

FO's stats are opponent-adjusted. The NCAA's are not.

Exactly. I realized that after I clicked the link because I was thinking the same thing as NDHoosier initially, that it sounded too good to be true. Just wanted to clarify in case it was thought those were NCAA stats you quoted. No biggie.

 

[irishfan]

Regarding the rushing attack, if only if only Jonas had a fifth year

One of CW's more questionable decisions was playing guys like Jonas their frosh years. We had Allen, Hughes, and Aldridge ahead of him lol. He had 21 carries all year, and only played in half the games. Absolutely no reason to burn that year of eligibility.

 

[woolybug25]

One of CW's more questionable decisions was playing guys like Jonas their frosh years. We had Allen, Hughes, and Aldridge ahead of him lol. He had 21 carries all year, and only played in half the games. Absolutely no reason to burn that year of eligibility.

Having Jonas last year would have been amazing.

 

[arrowryan]

My BOLD prediction for this year....

GA3 will be in the Heisman race. Call me crazy but I think there is a chance of that happening

 

[NDBoiler]

My BOLD prediction for this year....

GA3 will be in the Heisman race. Call me crazy but I think there is a chance of that happening

You may be right on for 2013, but if it is this year that would be a pleasant surprise. Just too much depth at RB for it to be this year IMO.

 

[arrowryan]

You may be right on for 2013, but if it is this year that would be a pleasant surprise. Just too much depth at RB for it to be this year IMO.

You might be right but with this offensive line, I could see Wood or GA3 in the Heisman race

 

[Riddickulous]

My BOLD prediction for this year....

GA3 will be in the Heisman race. Call me crazy but I think there is a chance of that happening

That is bold.

Highly doubt GA3 will get enough touches to put up Heisman numbers, though.

 

[TheTurningPoint]

If anyone is going to be in Heisman race it is Cierre or Theo. They are going to be the bulk of the offense. I think you will be very very surprised with Theo

 

[JughedJones]

My BOLD prediction for this year....

GA3 will be in the Heisman race. Call me crazy but I think there is a chance of that happening

If GA3 gets that many touches something terrible would have happened to Cierre and Theo.

We can wait one more year for GA3's true coming out.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

If anyone is going to be in Heisman race it is Cierre or Theo. They are going to be the bulk of the offense. I think you will be very very surprised with Theo

This would make me very happy. I was thinking earlier today that starting Golson and leaning heavily on an Oregan-esque running game would be our best chance of surviving our hellish gauntlet of a schedule. That should allow Wood, Riddick, and GAIII to see a significant number of carries, with the former two obviously getting the majority.

My only reservations are:

1. Will we finally see some pace? Oregon's offense is simple, but they run it at light speed. High-tempo may be too much for Golson, especially with the problems he's had getting plays called on time.
2. Will we have enough running plays mastered to be a run-first team? Our ground game, while effective, has been extremely simple over the last two years.

 

[Emcee77]

If anyone is going to be in Heisman race it is Cierre or Theo. They are going to be the bulk of the offense. I think you will be very very surprised with Theo

I'm hoping for a big year from Theo. Can you imagine if Cierre lets the guy behind him beat him out again, though? He'd have to feel so unlucky. It's not him, it's the backs around him.

 

[Black Irish]

I'm no expert but I agree with those about Kelly's stubbornness about not adjusting the offense to fit the players. Rees isn't an spread QB so why didn't Kelly tailor the offense for him? And if Kelly is sticking with the spread, than he'd be crazy not to hand the reins to Golson and/or Hendrix.

And as much as the offensive mistakes were costly and painful, the defense made their share of game changing mistakes. One of USC's TDs last season was directly attributable to Manti looking right at an open receiver in the end zone and not stepping back to cover him. ND needs to tighten up on both sides of the ball.

 

[GreatGolson]

If GA3 gets that many touches something terrible would have happened to Cierre and Theo.

We can wait one more year for GA3's true coming out.

Or that he is preforming so well that he gets more PT