Economics

Whiskeyjack

Mittens Margaritas Ante Porcos
Staff member
Messages
20,894
Reaction score
8,126
Liberalism in action! We'll allow a giant corporation to destroy the economic base of a small town in the interest of maximizing GDP, and then we'll praise it for its humanity when it sells a soulless simulacrum of what it destroyed back to us later.
 

Whiskeyjack

Mittens Margaritas Ante Porcos
Staff member
Messages
20,894
Reaction score
8,126
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Total mortgage debt of $9.14 trillion is still below its 2008 peak. <br><br>Auto-loan debt, however, is up 30% and student loan debt has doubled in the last ten years. <a href="https://t.co/xHiMdP7zgW">https://t.co/xHiMdP7zgW</a> <a href="https://t.co/Mp0a6uutdw">pic.twitter.com/Mp0a6uutdw</a></p>— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) <a href="https://twitter.com/ReformedBroker/status/1066708267731169280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 25, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

Veritate Duce Progredi

A man gotta have a code
Messages
9,358
Reaction score
5,352
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Total mortgage debt of $9.14 trillion is still below its 2008 peak. <br><br>Auto-loan debt, however, is up 30% and student loan debt has doubled in the last ten years. <a href="https://t.co/xHiMdP7zgW">https://t.co/xHiMdP7zgW</a> <a href="https://t.co/Mp0a6uutdw">pic.twitter.com/Mp0a6uutdw</a></p>— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) <a href="https://twitter.com/ReformedBroker/status/1066708267731169280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 25, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Student loan debt is the great bubble. I don't understand the structure enough to know who it'll pull under but it's gotta pop. We can't keep straddling our population with 20 year debts for their career choice.

How do we drive the money back down and reduce education debt?
 

zelezo vlk

Well-known member
Messages
18,010
Reaction score
5,049
Student loan debt is the great bubble. I don't understand the structure enough to know who it'll pull under but it's gotta pop. We can't keep straddling our population with 20 year debts for their career choice.

How do we drive the money back down and reduce education debt?

When companies stop demanding a bachelor's degree for seemingly every position. My sister majored in marketing and while looking for a new job after her first post-grad employment, she interviewed with a company advertising a role doing their marketing. Well during the interview interviewers described the duties and they were exactly that of a secretary with perhaps a handful of hours doing minor marketing things. They refused to look at any candidate without a bachelor's degree.

Once companies realize that you don't need a 4 year degree to learn how to click and drag files into an FTP client or craft spreadsheets, and that this can be taught to most computer-literate people, the education demands for most jobs will change.
 

Ndaccountant

Old Hoss
Messages
8,370
Reaction score
5,771
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Total mortgage debt of $9.14 trillion is still below its 2008 peak. <br><br>Auto-loan debt, however, is up 30% and student loan debt has doubled in the last ten years. <a href="https://t.co/xHiMdP7zgW">https://t.co/xHiMdP7zgW</a> <a href="https://t.co/Mp0a6uutdw">pic.twitter.com/Mp0a6uutdw</a></p>— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) <a href="https://twitter.com/ReformedBroker/status/1066708267731169280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 25, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Auto is interesting, as smaller subprime lenders have began to fold this year. The subprime growth has been real and auto loan delinquencies in general are the highest since 2008/9. This comes at a time when auto loans are now bigger and longer than ever. I am sure we will hear more about this as interest rates climb, whether it is more lenders taking losses or if unit sales deceleration increases.
 

GowerND11

Well-known member
Messages
6,536
Reaction score
3,287
When companies stop demanding a bachelor's degree for seemingly every position. My sister majored in marketing and while looking for a new job after her first post-grad employment, she interviewed with a company advertising a role doing their marketing. Well during the interview interviewers described the duties and they were exactly that of a secretary with perhaps a handful of hours doing minor marketing things. They refused to look at any candidate without a bachelor's degree.

Once companies realize that you don't need a 4 year degree to learn how to click and drag files into an FTP client or craft spreadsheets, and that this can be taught to most computer-literate people, the education demands for most jobs will change.

All of this, and I would include the arms race by all the schools too. Freshmen are getting suite dorms? There's $10's of millions of dollars being spent on student centers, activities, etc. and the cost comes down on the students through tuition.
 

Ndaccountant

Old Hoss
Messages
8,370
Reaction score
5,771
Student loan debt is the great bubble. I don't understand the structure enough to know who it'll pull under but it's gotta pop. We can't keep straddling our population with 20 year debts for their career choice.

How do we drive the money back down and reduce education debt?

Answer one: Little known fact that there is now only 4 companies that service federal student loan debt, with one company handling ~40%. If you are foreshadowing a "too big to fail" moment, you are not alone. Now, it won't be Lehman like, but make no mistake....if defaults continue to rise and these companies struggle to stay afloat, the Fed's will offer a lifeline and that will come from taxpayers.

Answer two: Increased debt load came from a myriad of places. Some of the more broader issues includes the increase of non-traditional students increased by nearly 20% from 2006 to 2009. Most likely somewhat related is also the increase of for-profit colleges. Between 15-20% of federal student loan debt comes from these institutions (which also have a 50%+ default rate by undergrad students within 12 years of graduation).

Also impacting increases is the great recession and the impact on state revenues. As revenues fell, many states slashed higher ed funding to close the gap (another impact of state pension crises IMO).

8-22-17highered_f2.png


The impact....

8-22-17highered_f8.png


There isn't a silver bullet here. The rise in student loan debt is linked to state financial health. Yes, tuition increases have been much softer recently as states poured more money back to higher ed, but we are one recession away from having the fixed pension costs at the state level from creating even more havoc.
 
Last edited:

Ndaccountant

Old Hoss
Messages
8,370
Reaction score
5,771
All of this, and I would include the arms race by all the schools too. Freshmen are getting suite dorms? There's $10's of millions of dollars being spent on student centers, activities, etc. and the cost comes down on the students through tuition.

This is a symptom, not the problem.

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/survey/2017-survey-admissions-directors-pressure-all-around

This is a year old, but you get the picture. Bachelor degree enrollment targets are not being met. So one of the (lousy) ways to attract students would be perks like you describe.
 

Legacy

New member
Messages
7,871
Reaction score
321
From Forbes, Dec 8, 2018: Trump's Tax Cuts Haven't Spiked Job Growth

First paragraphs:
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its November employment report, which showed 155,000 jobs being created. However, when September and October revisions are included (down 12,000) the net change is 143,000. While this was less than expected (around 180,000 to 200,000), the monthly average for 2018 has been a solid 206,000.

Over 200,000 new jobs per month is positive but given the Trump Administration’s rhetoric that the tax cuts would spur GDP growth to 4% (or in the case of President Trump, up to 6%) it doesn’t appear that companies are hiring much faster than they would have without the tax cuts . One challenge organizations are facing in hiring is that there is a skills gap between what is needed for open positions and what skills people have. Unfortunately, a tax cut doesn’t address this.

Passing the tax cut when unemployment was already at 4.1% wasn’t the best timing , especially since the revenue loss now has the federal yearly deficit on a path to $1 trillion and growing. Additionally, December quarter’s GDP growth seems to be in the mid-2% area. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast was lowered to 2.4% on Friday with the New York Fed also projecting 2.4% and the St. Louis Fed is at 2.3%.

A 2%ish GDP growth rate would be down from 4.2% in the June quarter and 3.5% in the September quarter. Trade and expanded inventories could still increase December’s result as companies try and beat what had appeared to be a 25% tariff on Chinese goods. However, these would only be a temporary benefit.

Compares Job Growth under Trump, Obama and Bush
 
Last edited:

irishtrain

Well-known member
Messages
2,359
Reaction score
157
This is the very thread for an answer to a question I have had for years-will someone who really knows what they are talking about give me an answer to this question in a few sentences or a paragraph (not to much) about the difference between Notre dame and other football powers as far as entrance requirements and what is expected of the student once he does get in. I have been under the impression for years that its harder to get in here and harder to stay eligible and I hope what I have been telling people for years is not wrong-I love our Notre Dame and hope I have been touting and saying the correct thing about how hard it is to do what these guys did this year under the Notre Dame culture and format of college life experience and education. Will one of you alums and not a subway like me please give me a little help and guidance as to what to say when the subject comes up-its very important to me to know I have been saying the correct thing when it comes to Notre dame players vs the football powers at be.
 

edgesofsanity

Active member
Messages
667
Reaction score
57
This is the very thread for an answer to a question I have had for years-will someone who really knows what they are talking about give me an answer to this question in a few sentences or a paragraph (not to much) about the difference between Notre dame and other football powers as far as entrance requirements and what is expected of the student once he does get in. I have been under the impression for years that its harder to get in here and harder to stay eligible and I hope what I have been telling people for years is not wrong-I love our Notre Dame and hope I have been touting and saying the correct thing about how hard it is to do what these guys did this year under the Notre Dame culture and format of college life experience and education. Will one of you alums and not a subway like me please give me a little help and guidance as to what to say when the subject comes up-its very important to me to know I have been saying the correct thing when it comes to Notre dame players vs the football powers at be.

Uh - you sure this is the right thread? This is Econ 305.
 

Irish#1

Livin' Your Dream!
Staff member
Messages
44,583
Reaction score
20,035
I saw where the U.S. and China are sitting down for trade talks. Did China blink?
 

Veritate Duce Progredi

A man gotta have a code
Messages
9,358
Reaction score
5,352
This is the very thread for an answer to a question I have had for years-will someone who really knows what they are talking about give me an answer to this question in a few sentences or a paragraph (not to much) about the difference between Notre dame and other football powers as far as entrance requirements and what is expected of the student once he does get in. I have been under the impression for years that its harder to get in here and harder to stay eligible and I hope what I have been telling people for years is not wrong-I love our Notre Dame and hope I have been touting and saying the correct thing about how hard it is to do what these guys did this year under the Notre Dame culture and format of college life experience and education. Will one of you alums and not a subway like me please give me a little help and guidance as to what to say when the subject comes up-its very important to me to know I have been saying the correct thing when it comes to Notre dame players vs the football powers at be.

Why would the economics thread answer this question?
 

Whiskeyjack

Mittens Margaritas Ante Porcos
Staff member
Messages
20,894
Reaction score
8,126
Good thread:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The 20 Percent Button is a useful heuristic for our politics: Imagine a button that instantly doubles productivity of labor market’s most productive quintile and causes least productive quintile to drop out of the labor force. Do you push the button? (RT your answer: Yes/No?) 1/</p>— Oren Cass (@oren_cass) <a href="https://twitter.com/oren_cass/status/1085589062227058688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 16, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

wizards8507

Well-known member
Messages
20,660
Reaction score
2,661
Good thread:
Smash the button. The immediate impact to the bottom 20% would be offset in the medium-to-long-term by a growing economy. They wouldn't be lost forever, they'd be sucked back in by the subsequent boom.
 

Whiskeyjack

Mittens Margaritas Ante Porcos
Staff member
Messages
20,894
Reaction score
8,126
Smash the button. The immediate impact to the bottom 20% would be offset in the medium-to-long-term by a growing economy. They wouldn't be lost forever, they'd be sucked back in by the subsequent boom.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">No fair sidestepping the hypothetical by proposing to push the button and then retrain and re-engage the bottom quintile. We’ve not shown a good ability to do that. The question is, if you knew we couldn't do those things well, would you still push the button? 7/</p>— Oren Cass (@oren_cass) <a href="https://twitter.com/oren_cass/status/1085590006922645504?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 16, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

wizards8507

Well-known member
Messages
20,660
Reaction score
2,661
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">No fair sidestepping the hypothetical by proposing to push the button and then retrain and re-engage the bottom quintile. We’ve not shown a good ability to do that. The question is, if you knew we couldn't do those things well, would you still push the button? 7/</p>— Oren Cass (@oren_cass) <a href="https://twitter.com/oren_cass/status/1085590006922645504?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 16, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Smash the button and introduce a universal basic income.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaldor–Hicks_efficiency
 

Whiskeyjack

Mittens Margaritas Ante Porcos
Staff member
Messages
20,894
Reaction score
8,126
Walther just published an article titled "The immorality of layoffs":

Many of the world's problems can be traced back to how we use words without thinking what they mean or where they come from. Take "active shooter," for example, a dangerous and idiotic euphemism that appears in nearly every periodical in this country: What would a "passive" shooter look like, I wonder? But a much better and, I think, perhaps even more alarming example is "layoff," a word that should be synonymous with fraud and theft but which is in fact accepted as an anodyne business term like "budget" or "salary."

But layoffs in the sense we mean now — when a business decides to terminate the employment of workers in the name of strategic planning, downsizing, smartsizing, optimizing, leveraging syngergies, and goodness knows what other gibberish — are a relatively recent phenomenon. A century ago there was not even a word for such a practice. A "layoff," according to a glossary of business terms published in 1921, was a "Temporary cessation of employment due ordinarily to lack of orders; a layoff does not constitute permanent discharge." A worker in those days might be "laid off" because there was no work for him to do and the company could not engage him for surplus or speculative production without risking insolvency.

In the middle of the 20th century, following the gains made by organized labor, corporations did everything they could to avoid getting rid of workers after hiring them. Unless your business was closing down, there was simply no reason to gut your workforce, even if profits were down a bit. To do so would have been considered not only irresponsible but unethical. It was simply not done, and the response to a company that attempted to increase its earnings for shareholders in such a cutthroat manner would have been comparable to the outrage now generated when a CEO says that he opposes gay marriage.

As Louis Uchitelle shows in The Disposable American, his brilliant history of the modern layoff, it was not until the 1970s that corporations routinely began to fire employees en masse simply because it allowed them to save on labor costs. This was the culmination of a long process that began in 1919, when the Dodge brothers sued Henry Ford because he surmised, correctly, that since he and his fellow shareholders already had more money than they would ever know what to do with, the best thing they could do with their excess profits was invest them back into the company — increasing wages, providing free education and other opportunities and benefits for employees and their families, and even lowering prices.

Unlike virtually every CEO of a major corporation today, Ford believed that his company was simply a means to an end — specifically the end of providing honorable work and a means of earning a living, which in turn made possible the raising of families and all the virtues of society that depend upon the securing of life's basic necessities. "My ambition," he said, "is to employ still more men, to spread the benefits of this industrial system to the greatest possible number, to help them build up their lives and their homes. To do this we are putting the greatest share of our profits back in the business." But the Michigan Supreme Court sided with the Dodges, ruling that a corporation's responsibility was only to its shareholders and that Ford's humane policies were an illegal wealth transfer.

Today the layoff swindlers who argue that taking the earnings away from thousands and thousands of families is necessary always promise the same thing: After the painful but unavoidable disruption, a new revivified company will emerge, one that is more sustainable, a state of affairs more beneficial to everyone involved, including somehow, the people who will not be employed by it. American workers have been told this for three decades now. It was always a lie. What we have gotten instead is a system in which shareholders and consultants make more money than ever and the lives of workers become increasingly precarious. Life after one layoff means, at best, finding another job where the whole cycle will begin anew.

Layoffs are immoral. To deprive someone of a wage not because he is failing to earn it or because you can no longer afford to pay it but because you have decided that you would prefer not to pay him is robbery. The fact that it has been a widely accepted and almost universally recommended business practice for more than 30 years tells us one thing: Corporations do not exist to deliver goods and services to people. Nor are they there to provide employment to workers. They are a nihilistic engine for the accumulation of wealth. Just as equine sporting events provide the necessary arithmetic for a numbers racket, so too is the fantasy of the corporation that Does Something an unavoidable component of making it possible for people to profit from an increase in its stock price. These people are playing Pokémon with the nation's wealth.

How can we change this state of affairs? One way, of course, is shame. A CEO who lays off workers and the consultant who earns his living by advising this practice and pimping the results to investors are con artists and should be regarded as such. The instability faced by workers must be brought to bear upon the consultant and shareholding classes. Raise the marginal tax rate to 70 percent. Tax capital gains at a higher rate than income. Ban share buybacks and implement tariffs, quality-control standards, and other measures that make outsourcing unviable. We must do everything possible to encourage worker-owned enterprises.

If he were alive today Henry Ford would be ashamed of but hardly surprised by the fact that General Motors is preparing for the second round of layoffs in roughly as many months. I spoke recently to a person who was present at a meeting where senior GM employees stood crying, utterly incapable of understanding why they and thousands of others would be losing their jobs over nothing. The rest of us should share in this outrage.
 

zelezo vlk

Well-known member
Messages
18,010
Reaction score
5,049
I wondered when that column would be posted. I have several friends who work at GM here in Austin. They've been on pins and needles with the layoff news, but look to be safe.
 

Some Irish Bloke

Five foot nothin', a hundred and nothin'
Messages
6,346
Reaction score
5,922
I wondered when that column would be posted. I have several friends who work at GM here in Austin. They've been on pins and needles with the layoff news, but look to be safe.

Same, I have a close friend who is in finance at GM. So far so good for him at least.

I work right across from GM's HQ in Detroit, the Renaissance Center. Cabs were lining up in front of the main entrance on Monday afternoon anticipating the folks who had just been let go. Sad sight to see.
 

NorthDakota

Grandson of Loomis
Messages
15,701
Reaction score
5,998
Cuomo has to be pissed. Amazon should troll him by putting it in Jacksonville.
 

MNIrishman

Well-known member
Messages
2,532
Reaction score
481
That'll kill a bunch of real estate speculators. They should put it in Chicago.
 

NDBoiler

The Rep Machine
Messages
4,455
Reaction score
1,826
Smash the button and introduce a universal basic income.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaldor–Hicks_efficiency

Wiz is a commie, I knew it.

Interesting topic for a sure. Some food for thought -

What is a fair basic income? Who is the arbiter of what is fair?

What happens in an economic downturn and tax revenue decreases significantly (the presumed source of the basic income)?

What is the incentive for those just receiving the basic income to try and improve their lot in life? Does this not just encourage idleness for a large portion of the population (thus a whole other set of problems)?
 

beryirish

Dry Land Is Not A Myth!
Messages
5,949
Reaction score
539
Really now? That's good. I wonder if they'll put everything in a single spot or scatter them around. Apparently they just leased half of a building near my office: https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/news/2019/02/11/sources-amazon-leases-big-chunk-of-new-domain-high.html

Clearly not enough to house 50K workers

Saw this a couple days ago that Forbes published.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryannazevedo/2019/02/07/googles-leasing-spree-extends-to-austin-putting-more-pressure-on-the-citys-office-market/#453836a322fc

Google's Leasing Spree Extends To Austin, Putting More Pressure On The City's Office Market

Last week, news broke that Google had committed to leasing all 35 floors of an under-construction tower in downtown Austin.

Downtown Austin, TexasGetty

Per the Austin-American Statesman, the tower will be nearly 800,000 square feet and could house up to 5,000 people. Conveniently, and not unintentionally I’m sure, the building will be located right beside Google’s existing office in the city’s core at 500 W. 2nd Street. According to 9to5Google, “this would certainly be one of [Google’s] most expansive offices in North America” once the building is completed in 2022.

The news comes less than two months after Apple announced plans to build a massive new, $1 billion campus in the city, which I wrote about here.

Two tech giants committing in a major way to Austin is significant for the city, which in recent years has seen its tech scene explode. Besides being home to a growing number of startups, nearly all the large tech companies have a presence in Austin, including Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google, Oracle, IBM and Cisco. And that’s had an impact on the city’s office market.

Google committing to take an entire building in Austin’s Central Business District (CBD) is only going to put more pressure on the city’s already tight, and increasingly expensive, commercial real estate market. Austin’s average asking office rent was $43.67 per square foot in the fourth quarter of 2018, up 17.2% from $37.24 in Q4 2017, according to Chicago-based CRE brokerage firm Jones Lang LaSalle. That figure is even higher in the CBD, which had an average direct asking rent of $59.78 in the fourth quarter, JLL says.

Also:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alyyale/2019/02/13/leaving-long-island-city-what-losing-amazon-hq2-would-mean-for-nycs-future/#37b9b5d3127c

Leaving Long Island City? What Losing Amazon HQ2 Would Mean For NYC's Future
 
Top