Democratic Primary Thread (New Poll - January)

Democratic Primary Thread (New Poll - January)

  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 4 5.8%
  • Bernie Sanders

    Votes: 14 20.3%
  • Elizabeth Warren

    Votes: 5 7.2%
  • Pete Buttigieg

    Votes: 16 23.2%
  • Andrew Yang

    Votes: 7 10.1%
  • Amy Klobuchar

    Votes: 5 7.2%
  • Mike Bloomberg

    Votes: 6 8.7%
  • Other (i.e. an unlisted candidate)

    Votes: 12 17.4%

  • Total voters
    69

Irish YJ

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Developing story is exactly what you just said re: Bernie. He's not doing as well as he did in '16 in the same districts. Granted, a lot of that has to do with competition. Last time, it was just Bern vs HRC. But it is still something to keep an eye on.

Warren, thankfully, has been exposed just enough recently that people backed off her.

I'm finding myself wanting to look more into Klobuchar now.

I think Klobuchar is the best left standing right now. Klobuchar is really the only one I could stomach as president... can't even imagine the rest.

I thought it would be a little closer for Bern, but I thought the Bern+Warren combined vote would be closer to Bern's last vote (+60%). Wasn't even close, and it's in both of their backyards. I think the "newness", "authenticity", or the "coolness" of being a Bernie Bro has worn off since 2016.
 

Irish YJ

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Bernie is going to hold his core 25%-30% the entire race. He has a ceiling, because he is not a "fresh outsider" anymore... he's the communist party's flag carrier actually pushing policy positions.

The only way he wins outright is if Bloomberg/Buttigieg/Klobuchar/Biden all stay in the race too long and chop up the 65% that don't want to vote for Bernie.

Read an article last night that suggested Russia should back Bernie this election lol...
 

GoIrish41

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Bernie is going to hold his core 25%-30% the entire race. He has a ceiling, because he is not a "fresh outsider" anymore... he's the communist party's flag carrier actually pushing policy positions.

The only way he wins outright is if Bloomberg/Buttigieg/Klobuchar/Biden all stay in the race too long and chop up the 65% that don't want to vote for Bernie.

That seems pretty likely, I think. The Trump 2016 campaign had a similar dynamic -- lots of candidates splitting the vote and allowing him to win with 20%. That effect will especially be true if Bloomberg keeps spending crazy money and Buttigieg maintains his momentum when Bloomberg is actually on the ballot. Those two, and to a lesser extent Klobuchar and Warren, will almost certainly stay in the race until Super Tuesday, when half of the delegates get divided up. I think Biden will keep at it until SC, and if his perceived lead with black voters materializes, it may give him a jolt of life ... but right now he looks like he's on his deathbed. Now would be the time for Warren to fold up her tent and jump on board with Bernie to give Progressives a shot in the arm, but given her remarks last night it seems more likely that she will throw her support to Klobuchar if she drops out. This is definitely going to be a tight primary, at least until Super Tuesday. But Bernie looks to be in the catbird seat.
 
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Irish YJ

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Can we get an over and under on when candidates will drop. I'd like to Vbet :)
 

BleedBlueGold

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I think Klobuchar is the best left standing right now. Klobuchar is really the only one I could stomach as president... can't even imagine the rest.

I thought it would be a little closer for Bern, but I thought the Bern+Warren combined vote would be closer to Bern's last vote (+60%). Wasn't even close, and it's in both of their backyards. I think the "newness", "authenticity", or the "coolness" of being a Bernie Bro has worn off since 2016.

Have any trustworthy/detailed reads about Amy? Reading a candidates website synopsis rarely is a tell-all about where they stand and what they aim to do. Yang dropped out and Tulsi has no chance. I'm genuinely interested in finding out about Klobuchar.
 

BleedBlueGold

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That seems pretty likely, I think. The Trump 2016 campaign had a similar dynamic -- lots of candidates splitting the vote and allowing him to win with 20%. That effect will especially be true if Bloomberg keeps spending crazy money and Buttigieg maintains his momentum when Bloomberg is actually on the ballot. Those two, and to a lesser extent Klobuchar and Warren, will almost certainly stay in the race until Super Tuesday, when half of the delegates get divided up. I think Biden will keep at it until SC, and if his perceived lead with black voters materializes, it may give him a jolt of life ... but right now he looks like he's on his deathbed. Now would be the time for Warren to fold up her tent and jump on board with Bernie to give Progressives a shot in the arm, but given her remarks last night it seems more likely that she will throw her support to Klobuchar if she drops out. This is definitely going to be a tight primary, at least until Super Tuesday. But Bernie looks to be in the catbird seat.

I will laugh hysterically if she drops out and endorses Klobuchar. She tries to run on this b.s. progressive platform that everyone can see through, only to drop out and back the moderate (which she backed HRC in 16). Par for the course for her.
 

GoIrish41

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I will laugh hysterically if she drops out and endorses Klobuchar. She tries to run on this b.s. progressive platform that everyone can see through, only to drop out and back the moderate (which she backed HRC in 16). Par for the course for her.

She gave a shoutout to Klobuchar (for third place) last night and seems much more focused on a woman president than a progressive one. That's just my take.
 

Irish YJ

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Have any trustworthy/detailed reads about Amy? Reading a candidates website synopsis rarely is a tell-all about where they stand and what they aim to do. Yang dropped out and Tulsi has no chance. I'm genuinely interested in finding out about Klobuchar.

I like Tulsi more than any, but like you said, no chance.. so not worth considering/mentioning. I didn't think Amy had one until recently.

This one is OK on AK. It's left leaning a bit, but this particular bio is pretty cut and dry.

https://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-amy-klobuchar-bio-age-family-key-positions-2019-3
 

IrishLax

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Read an article last night that suggested Russia should back Bernie this election lol...

They already are. People have been talking for weeks about how pro-Bernie Russian troll traffic already exceeds what they had going for Trump in 2016.
 

BleedBlueGold

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She gave a shoutout to Klobuchar (for third place) last night and seems much more focused on a woman president than a progressive one. That's just my take.

I agree.

I like Tulsi more than any, but like you said, no chance.. so not worth considering/mentioning. I didn't think Amy had one until recently.

This one is OK on AK. It's left leaning a bit, but this particular bio is pretty cut and dry.

https://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-amy-klobuchar-bio-age-family-key-positions-2019-3

Thanks.
 

gkIrish

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I am super interested to see what Warren does. Last night in her speech she basically played the unity card. She is going to have a somewhat big influence on the election. I think it will be fatal to the Democratic Party if she endorses Sanders because I don't think he can beat Trump.

My prediction (with odds) on who will be the nominee:

Mayor Pete (35%)
Sanders (30%)
Klobuchar (15%)
Bloomberg (10%)
Biden (10%)
 

Whiskeyjack

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RIP Yang Gang:

Andrew Yang surprised no one by dropping out early Tuesday evening when it had became clear that he would not place higher than sixth in the New Hampshire primary. His immediate response was to quip to journalists, "I can’t believe I lost to these people."

This is, simply put, not what you are supposed to say in these situations. But it was typical of the candor Yang exhibited throughout his ill-fated attempt to secure the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, and it is as good an epitaph as any for one of the most memorable and interesting political campaigns in recent American history.

Last March, I called Yang "Ross Perot for millennials." This was meant as a compliment. Like Perot before him, Yang is a technocrat in the old-fashioned sense: someone who believes that democratic politics is not a millenarian contest of wills but a simple means of deciding the most prudential solutions to ordinary problems like securing employment and the provision of health care.

This is why Yang is probably the only candidate in American history whose campaign website has been worth visiting. Instead of the usual ambiguous platitudes under a handful of equally vague headings (Education, The Economy) its policy section detailed his views on an extraordinarily wide range of issues, from health care and infrastructure (which he wanted to hand over to a new federal department called the "Legion of Builders and Destroyers") to his so-called "Freedom Dividend," tort reform, postal banking, and the scourge of robo-calls. So far as I am aware, he is the only Democrat in the race who spoke at any length about the problem of smartphone addiction among young children or the importance of public funding for the arts, to name only two among dozens of issues. This stubborn practicality also explains why his campaign slogan consisted of a single word: "Math."

If his varied and occasionally quixotic platform had been the only thing that distinguished Yang from the rest of the Democratic field, he would probably not be worth remembering. But another thing that has been unfailingly clear to anyone who followed or interacted with Yang is the simple fact that in addition to being unusually clever for a politician he is a good and decent man. He also, perhaps fatally, has a sense of humor: when he began a response to a debate question about health care by observing "I'm Asian, so I know a lot of doctors," every horrified tweet from a journalist was met by a hundred thousand normal, socially well-adjusted Americans laughing.

These strengths — his no-nonsense interest in solutions and his fundamental humanity — were probably Yang's biggest weaknesses as a candidate. So much the worse for America.

I still think Bernie is the most authentic candidate in the Democratic field, and the one most likely to beat Trump in the midwestern states that lost the election for Hillary. But Klobuchar is the only candidate who has expressed any willingness to moderate the DNC's extreme line on abortion, so she's the only defensible option for this Catholic.
 

tussin

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I am super interested to see what Warren does. Last night in her speech she basically played the unity card. She is going to have a somewhat big influence on the election. I think it will be fatal to the Democratic Party if she endorses Sanders because I don't think he can beat Trump.

I disagree. Warren is toast. No one really cares about her since it became apparent that she's nothing more than a disingenuous Bernie, so her influence will be limited. The total shift of support from college-educated women from Warren to Klobuchar was shocking to me -- and indicates that the voters aren't as ready for a far left platform as the MSM wants you to believe.

Her speech yesterday almost sounded like a concession speech ("we need to unify, blah blah blah"). I think she's grasping for straws at this point.
 

BleedBlueGold

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RIP Yang Gang:



I still think Bernie is the most authentic candidate in the Democratic field, and the one most likely to beat Trump in the midwestern states that lost the election for Hillary. But Klobuchar is the only candidate who has expressed any willingness to moderate the DNC's extreme line on abortion, so she's the only defensible option for this Catholic.

Wondered where you stood on the current top 3 given Sanders and Pete pushed out pro-life Dems and Amy, whether opportunistic or genuine, spoke to include PL Dems in the party tent. I already know I won’t love everything about any one candidate but with the news of Yang and Tusli’s unsurprising weak showing, I’ve found myself being more curious on Klobuchar.
 

NorthDakota

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I called out for Klobuchar as soon as she threw her hat in the ring.

She's the Democrat candidate that Republican people would wake up after election day and merely be disappointed in the loss, not be fearful for the destruction of the American way of life.
 

Irish YJ

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They already are. People have been talking for weeks about how pro-Bernie Russian troll traffic already exceeds what they had going for Trump in 2016.

LOL. Didn't see that. I wonder why the MSM isn't reporting it.

Is Bernie a Russian asset? Hope someone is working on a FISA...
 

IrishLax

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I am super interested to see what Warren does. Last night in her speech she basically played the unity card. She is going to have a somewhat big influence on the election. I think it will be fatal to the Democratic Party if she endorses Sanders because I don't think he can beat Trump.

My prediction (with odds) on who will be the nominee:

Mayor Pete (35%)
Sanders (30%)
Klobuchar (15%)
Bloomberg (10%)
Biden (10%)

https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/democratic-nominee-odds

Bernie Sanders is basically even odds here, Bloomberg (!!!) with the second best odds.

Biden at 10:1 and Klobuchar at 15:1 seem like good "buy low" long shots for opposite reasons.
 

MJ12666

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RIP Yang Gang:



I still think Bernie is the most authentic candidate in the Democratic field, and the one most likely to beat Trump in the midwestern states that lost the election for Hillary. But Klobuchar is the only candidate who has expressed any willingness to moderate the DNC's extreme line on abortion, so she's the only defensible option for this Catholic.

I read the article and listened to the interview; basically Klobuchar is taking the same position as St. Pete did with the pro-life Dem woman. She just said it a little nicer.

If a voter feels strongly about abortion as an issue regarding who to support for president then the most important position a candidate can take is not the need to "build a big tent" by "bring people in instead of shutting them out" as Klobucher stated, but rather who they will nominate to fill a Supreme Court opening. Klobuchar may say she welcomes pro-life dems but if she was elected president who do you think she would nominate to fill a Supreme Court opening, Amy Barrett or Loretta Lynch? My guess is Loretta Lynch.
 

IrishLax

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Offshore books have Bernie at 75% chance to win Nevada caucuses.
 

IrishLax

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Wonder what the odds would be betting against Bloomturd. I think he's going to hit his ceiling.

You'd have to roughly bet 3 units to win 1 right now against Bloomberg. So betting $300 that he WOULDN'T get nomination would net you $100 profit.
 

NorthDakota

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You'd have to roughly bet 3 units to win 1 right now against Bloomberg. So betting $300 that he WOULDN'T get nomination would net you $100 profit.

That's bananas. Wouldnt have expected that. The house always wins though yeah?
 

Irish YJ

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Yup.

If you faded Biden two weeks ago you're 1-2 primaries away from stacking some serious $$$.

I still am a little surprised at how bad and how fast he's dropped. South Carolina is going to be interesting. If he stinks there, he's done. If he powers back, it will make for a very interesting Super Tuesday. The field is just so mediocre, and everyone has big holes in either their platforms or personalities. It'll be entertaining at minimum.
 

BleedBlueGold

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I read the article and listened to the interview; basically Klobuchar is taking the same position as St. Pete did with the pro-life Dem woman. She just said it a little nicer.

If a voter feels strongly about abortion as an issue regarding who to support for president then the most important position a candidate can take is not the need to "build a big tent" by "bring people in instead of shutting them out" as Klobucher stated, but rather who they will nominate to fill a Supreme Court opening. Klobuchar may say she welcomes pro-life dems but if she was elected president who do you think she would nominate to fill a Supreme Court opening, Amy Barrett or Loretta Lynch? My guess is Loretta Lynch.

I see what you're saying and don't necessarily disagree. However, the party platform has moved so far to the extreme. For me, someone who holds firm on "safe, legal, rare" while also supporting some version of basic healthcare coverage (ie. Australia for example), paid maternal/paternal leave, making adoption easier and more affordable, etc etc. From what I'm gathering, Amy seems to be the candidate who's best suited to push for this platform. Otherwise, the only choice at the moment is to vote for a Republican on a single issue. For me, I guess it's a compromise.
 

Whiskeyjack

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I read the article and listened to the interview; basically Klobuchar is taking the same position as St. Pete did with the pro-life Dem woman. She just said it a little nicer.

If a voter feels strongly about abortion as an issue regarding who to support for president then the most important position a candidate can take is not the need to "build a big tent" by "bring people in instead of shutting them out" as Klobucher stated, but rather who they will nominate to fill a Supreme Court opening. Klobuchar may say she welcomes pro-life dems but if she was elected president who do you think she would nominate to fill a Supreme Court opening, Amy Barrett or Loretta Lynch? My guess is Loretta Lynch.

I obviously can't vote for a Democrat in the general until the party nominates a genuinely prolife candidate. And I agree that Klobuchar's "big tent" comment isn't impressive in a vacuum, but it needs to be interpreted in the context of what the other candidates have said recently. The abortion lobby has pointedly asked every Democratic candidate about whether there's any room in the party for pro-life voters, and all of them--Sanders, Buttigieg, even Yang--basically said no. Klobuchar was the only one willing to push back a little and argue that there should be room for them. Yes, it's small beer, but her willingness to part from party orthodoxy here at all, even if only rhetorically, is significant. And for those of us who believe that abortion is the preeminent moral evil of American society, it means that supporting Klobuchar's nomination is basically required.

The only other decent argument I've seen on this subject is that Bernie is the least interested in culture war issues of all the candidates, so his administration would be the least likely to actively persecute the Church. I'm less convinced on that front, but I know some good Catholics who are supporting him instead on that basis.
 

Irishize

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I obviously can't vote for a Democrat in the general until the party nominates a genuinely prolife candidate. And I agree that Klobuchar's "big tent" comment isn't impressive in a vacuum, but it needs to be interpreted in the context of what the other candidates have said recently. The abortion lobby has pointedly asked every Democratic candidate about whether there's any room in the party for pro-life voters, and all of them--Sanders, Buttigieg, even Yang--basically said no. Klobuchar was the only one willing to push back a little and argue that there should be room for them. Yes, it's small beer, but her willingness to part from party orthodoxy here at all, even if only rhetorically, is significant. And for those of us who believe that abortion is the preeminent moral evil of American society, it means that supporting Klobuchar's nomination is basically required.

The only other decent argument I've seen on this subject is that Bernie is the least interested in culture war issues of all the candidates, so his administration would be the least likely to actively persecute the Church. I'm less convinced on that front, but I know some good Catholics who are supporting him instead on that basis.

The thing about Klobuchar is that, at the end of the day, she’s going to nominate a pro-abortion legislator for SCOTUS (ex., Loretta Lynch).

I never understood the mantra of “safe, legal & rare”. I get the “safe” & “legal” aspect...that’s pretty obvious. But why “rare” if one truly believes it’s not a human life?
 

Whiskeyjack

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The thing about Klobuchar is that, at the end of the day, she’s going to nominate a pro-abortion legislator for SCOTUS (ex., Loretta Lynch).

They all would, so how does that help us decide who to support for the Democratic nomination?

I never understood the mantra of “safe, legal & rare”. I get the “safe” & “legal” aspect...that’s pretty obvious. But why “rare” if one truly believes it’s not a human life?

I agree with you, though that's beyond the scope of this thread.
 
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