Democratic Primary Thread (New Poll - January)

[Irish YJ]

Anytime I see Biden it starts to make sense how he has always failed as a candidate.

Saw multiple clips of him responding to different individuals asking about Hunter over the past couple days.... His response was basically the same scripted tough guy laugh and response. I can't imagine it's playing well.

 

[ulukinatme]

Giuliani was actually responsible for most of the crime drop in NYC. It had already started to drop a bit with Dinkins, but Giuliani had consistent and significant drops throughout his time as mayor. Leveled off with Bloomberg, and honestly I think he was in a no win situation. It was simply hard to improve on things anymore, so he ended up doing some things he shouldn't...

The thing I like least about Bloomberg is that he tried to increase term limits (NYC Mayor) so he could run a third time.

But I do agree, he fell into that trap. More policing means more arrest, so doesn't really matter what area you're policing, it's just a natural output. Still, that tape sounds awful, and will hurt him in the coming primaries/polls.

'Member when Giuliani was beloved in New York after his response to September 11th? Pepperidge Farm remembers. Then he threw in with the bad orange man and he's evil now. It's like when Hulk Hogan joined the NWO!

 

[Irish YJ]

'Member when Giuliani was beloved in New York after his response to September 11th? Pepperidge Farm remembers. Then he threw in with the bad orange man and he's evil now. It's like when Hulk Hogan joined the NWO!

Yup. Silly stuff. Rudy was a great mayor for NY. And before all that, he took on the 5 families, and Wall Street.

Biden was talking smack about Rudy yesterday in multiple interviews. I saw the interview Rudy gave about what he had found on Hunter, and sounded like it might have legs. Regardless, doesn't sound good for the Bidens.

 

[Wild Bill]

Nobody cares but the Bernie bros, who were never going to vote for Bloomberg anyways. What he’s saying is that he identified the high crime, high gun areas and did something about it. Those areas were all minority heavy, so minorities were disproportionately targeted. He fell into the same trap as Clinton where minorities ask for safer neighborhoods so then you police those neighborhoods and 10 years later they start calling you racist because the people being arrested were minorities.

What’s funny is that instead of appreciating how shockingly safe NYC is relative to other major cities and that the NYPD has one of the best records of restraint in the country when it comes to using firearms... everyone is going to fixate on stop and frisk being racist. Which it was, it targeted minorities. But this shows that many progressives would be perfectly content to let urban minorities kill themselves and otherwise languish in high crime areas while blaming “systemic racism” than do literally anything to target criminals in those communities.

What he said, "95% of your murders -- murderers and murder victims fit one MO. You can just take the description, Xerox it and pass it out to all the cops. They are male. minorities, sixteen to twenty-five. That's true in New York. That's true in virtually every city. And that's where the real crime is", would probably get you banned from Twitter, Facebook and maybe even this site.

I agree with most of your points, except the bolded. I don't want to be targeted by a billionaire scumbag like Bloomberg and "thrown against a wall", and I'm not a Bernie Bro. Call me crazy.

 

[Irish YJ]

Biden already bolted NH for SC LOL...

 

[BGIF]

Yand Drops Out Live on TV At Hi NH Campaign HQ

Yand Drops Out Live on TV At Hi NH Campaign HQ

From an earlier report.


FEBRUARY 11, 2020 / 7:09 PM / UPDATED 4 MINUTES AGO
Businessman Andrew Yang to end presidential bid: campaign sources
Doina Chiacu, Joseph Ax


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Businessman Andrew Yang will suspend his bid for the Democratic nomination for U.S. president, campaign sources said on Tuesday.

Yang, 45, who ran for president despite having no political background, surprised many observers by qualifying for debates and remaining in the contest longer than some veteran politicians.

The Ivy League-educated son of Taiwanese immigrants, who was bidding to be the country’s first Asian-American president, launched his longshot candidacy in 2017 as a virtual unknown.

Yang’s signature proposal, a universal basic income that would pay every American $1,000 a month, was his answer to the “fourth industrial revolution,” the rise of automation that he said destroyed millions of manufacturing jobs and, as a consequence, paved the way for Donald Trump’s 2016 election.

“Donald Trump is not the cause of all our problems, and we’re making a mistake when we act like he is,” Yang said at a Democratic debate on Friday.

“He is a symptom of a disease that has been building up in our communities for years and decades.”

 

[BGIF]

New Hampshire: results so far vs. preelection polls
UPDATED 1 MINUTE AGO
36% OF EXPECTED VOTE REPORTING

Latest result
Sanders 28%
Buttigieg 24
Klobuchar 20
Warren 10
Biden 9

Yang 3
Gabbard 3
Steyer 3
Patrick 0
Bennet 0

 

[BGIF]

New Hampshire: results so far
UPDATED 49 SECONDS AGO
62% OF EXPECTED VOTE REPORTING

Latest result %
Sanders 27
Buttigieg 24
Klobuchar 20

Warren 9
Biden 8

Steyer 4
Yang 3
Gabbard 3

Patrick 0
Bennet 0

 

[drayer54]

Where's Hunter, fat? Haha!

 

[BGIF]

New Hampshire
LIVE PRIMARY RESULTS | FEB. 11, 2020
222 of 300 precincts reporting (74.0%)
UPDATED FEB. 11, 10:21 PM ET

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

CANDIDATES	VOTES	PCT. 		DELEGATES
Bernie Sanders	52,930	26.1%		6
Pete Buttigieg	48,700	24.0 		6
Amy Klobuchar	40,611	20.0 		6
Elizabet Warren	18,805	9.3 		--
Joe Biden	17,283	8.5 		--
Tom Steyer	7,443	3.7 		--
Tulsi Gabbard	6,748	3.3 		--
Andrew Yang	5,628	2.8 		--
Others 4,434	2.2

--

 

[BGIF]

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/11/804657736/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-new-hampshire-primary

Speaking of delegates, how many are at stake?

Twenty-four pledged delegates. There are nine more automatic delegates, which used to be superdelegates, but they matter less this year because they can't vote on first ballot at the Democratic National Convention unless there's an overwhelming majority for one candidate.

Sixteen of the delegates are allocated proportionally by congressional district. (There are two of them.) Another eight are allocated by statewide vote (five at large, three pledged leaders and elected officials). Those odd numbers will be important going forward in states to come because the overall winner essentially gets the extra delegate.

That represents just 1% of the total number of delegates available; after New Hampshire, just 2% of total delegates will be allocated (including Iowa). A candidate needs 1,991 delegates to win the nomination, so there's a long way to go.

 

[drayer54]

Just in case you thought Mini Mike was trending for not being a racist today...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Audio of <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeBloomberg?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MikeBloomberg</a>’s 2015 <a href="https://twitter.com/AspenInstitute?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AspenInstitute</a> speech where he explains that “you can just Xerox (copy)” the description of male, minorities 16-25 and hand to cops.<br><br>Bloomberg had video of speech blocked.<br><br>Perhaps because of the problematic explanation he gives for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/StopAndFrisk?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#StopAndFrisk</a> <a href="https://t.co/Fm0YCi4ZRy">pic.twitter.com/Fm0YCi4ZRy</a></p>— Benjamin Dixon (@BenjaminPDixon) <a href="https://twitter.com/BenjaminPDixon/status/1226973723720396808?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 10, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[BGIF]

Bernie Claiming Victory In NH

Bernie Claiming Victory In NH

He's on live in address to his supporters.

 

[BGIF]

Fox Call NH for Sanders

Fox Call NH for Sanders

Bernie
Pete
Klobuchar
Warren
Biden

 

[BGIF]

NBC Call NH For Sanders

NBC Call NH For Sanders

Same order of finish as Fox

 

[BGIF]

CNN Calls NH For Sanders

CNN Calls NH For Sanders

same order

Jake Trapper claims Sanders has support of "people of color" and Pete and Amy do not. He added that will be important in Nevada and S.C.

 

[BGIF]

538 Calls NH For Sanders

538 Calls NH For Sanders

Bernie and Pete each win 9 Delegates with Amy getting 6.

Warren and Joe shutout.



New Hampshire
LIVE PRIMARY RESULTS | FEB. 11, 2020
258 of 300 precincts reporting (86.0%)
UPDATED FEB. 11, 11:22 PM ET

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

CANDIDATES	VOTES	PCT. 		DELEGATES
Bernie Sanders	68,594	26.0%		9
Pete Buttigieg	64,269	24.4 		9
Amy Klobuchar	52,079	19.8 		6
Elizabet Warren	24,618	9.3 		--
Joe Biden	22,176	8.4 		--

 

[BGIF]

Delegate Tally After IA and NH

Delegate Tally After IA and NH

1,991 Needed To Win

Delegates To Date
Buttigieg 23
Sanders 21
Warren 8
Klobuchar 7
Biden 6


A very long way to go!

One of the talking heads on CNN noted there had been talk of a brokered convention and that after tonight it's looking more likely.

 

[Irish YJ]

1,991 Needed To Win

Delegates To Date
Buttigieg 23
Sanders 21
Warren 8
Klobuchar 7
Biden 6


A very long way to go!

One of the talking heads on CNN noted there had been talk of a brokered convention and that after tonight it's looking more likely.

Here's my brokered outcome thus far...

21 Sanders
8 Warrren
29 Team Socialist Total (Nom - Sanders)

23 Buttigieg
7 Kobachar
6 Biden
36 Team Socialist-lite Total (nom - Buttigieg)

Then I predict Bloomberg to do his best to buy Team Socialist-lite's 36 come Super Tuesday....

 

[Irish YJ]

YangGang no more....

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/i9lujErI4i">pic.twitter.com/i9lujErI4i</a></p>— Andrew Yang🧢 (@AndrewYang) <a href="https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1227416026968621056?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[GATTACA!]

YangGang no more....

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/i9lujErI4i">pic.twitter.com/i9lujErI4i</a></p>— Andrew Yang🧢 (@AndrewYang) <a href="https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1227416026968621056?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 12, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Heartbreaking.

Now I'm left to root for chaos just for the entertainment value.

 

[Irish#1]

Bernie and Pete each win 9 Delegates with Amy getting 6.

Warren and Joe shutout.



New Hampshire
LIVE PRIMARY RESULTS | FEB. 11, 2020
258 of 300 precincts reporting (86.0%)
UPDATED FEB. 11, 11:22 PM ET

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

CANDIDATES	VOTES	PCT. 		DELEGATES
Bernie Sanders	68,594	26.0%		9
Pete Buttigieg	64,269	24.4 		9
Amy Klobuchar	52,079	19.8 		6
Elizabet Warren	24,618	9.3 		--
Joe Biden	22,176	8.4 		--

Saw an interview yesterday. Biden is swimming that river in Egypt. He and Warren better face reality. This is a two horse race with a dark horse coming on as they round the third pole.

 

[Irish YJ]

Heartbreaking.

Now I'm left to root for chaos just for the entertainment value.

While I don't agree with him on everything, he was probably my fav out the bunch. Definitely the most trustworthy. Klobuchar is my new fav I guess.

Definitely going to be entertaining.

 

[IrishLax]

Biden dropped a full 15 points in New Hampshire polling in one week after Iowa. Klobuchar and Pete surged. It’s crazy to see the impact that one state using an archaic system has had on the national race.

Biden has had moderate-to-large leafs in South Carolina and Nevada for awhile. If he fails in those states it seems quite likely that he will drop out before Super Tuesday.

 

[Irish YJ]

Biden dropped a full 15 points in New Hampshire polling in one week after Iowa. Klobuchar and Pete surged. It’s crazy to see the impact that one state using an archaic system has had on the national race.

Biden has had moderate-to-large leafs in South Carolina and Nevada for awhile. If he fails in those states it seems quite likely that he will drop out before Super Tuesday.

What I found most interesting is that 1) Sanders barely won a state he crushed in 2016, and 2) Warren did so bad.

Also interesting that Trump got more votes there (by a lot) than any incumbent in many years. Crushed Obama, Bush, and Clinton's numbers.

 

[Rogue219]

When do they go to a state where there are black people?

 

[gkIrish]

Biden dropped a full 15 points in New Hampshire polling in one week after Iowa. Klobuchar and Pete surged. It’s crazy to see the impact that one state using an archaic system has had on the national race.

Biden has had moderate-to-large leafs in South Carolina and Nevada for awhile. If he fails in those states it seems quite likely that he will drop out before Super Tuesday.

Biden has mostly himself to blame for losing this race. He was terrible in every debate and honest to god he hangs his hat on 4-5 things he's done in the past and doesn't ever stop talking about them. I haven't heard one fresh, new idea from him all year.

 

[Irish YJ]

Biden has mostly himself to blame for losing this race. He was terrible in every debate and honest to god he hangs his hat on 4-5 things he's done in the past and doesn't ever stop talking about them. I haven't heard one fresh, new idea from him all year.

He comes off as a jerk a lot too. I think the Hunter situation is impacting his votes more than people think too.

When do they go to a state where there are black people?

Feb29 in SC is the first state above the national average (demographically speaking).

 

[BleedBlueGold]

What I found most interesting is that 1) Sanders barely won a state he crushed in 2016, and 2) Warren did so bad.

Also interesting that Trump got more votes there (by a lot) than any incumbent in many years. Crushed Obama, Bush, and Clinton's numbers.

Developing story is exactly what you just said re: Bernie. He's not doing as well as he did in '16 in the same districts. Granted, a lot of that has to do with competition. Last time, it was just Bern vs HRC. But it is still something to keep an eye on.

Warren, thankfully, has been exposed just enough recently that people backed off her.

I'm finding myself wanting to look more into Klobuchar now.

 

[IrishLax]

Bernie is going to hold his core 25%-30% the entire race. He has a ceiling, because he is not a "fresh outsider" anymore... he's the communist party's flag carrier actually pushing policy positions.

The only way he wins outright is if Bloomberg/Buttigieg/Klobuchar/Biden all stay in the race too long and chop up the 65% that don't want to vote for Bernie.