Dec 19 | ACC Championship | Clemson

[Irishize]

What killed ND in the 2018 playoff matchup was Clemson's DLine. This Clemson Dline is nowhere near that talented. We could still struggle to run the ball but I'd bet our Oline is still able to get some push and create holes. If we control the ball we can and should win the rematch. Our defense will give up some points but we have already shown we can take away Etienne. Assuredly Lawrence will be more of a running threat than DJ last game.

All that said, if the game script gets away from ND it could get ugly. We don't really have the make up to play catch up.

I agree with your first statement but I would add that no DL in CFB was near as talented as that 2018 Clemson team. Just look how they dominated Bama....that doesn’t happen often...if ever.

So we agree the DL from 2018 & this year are vastly different in experience & talent but I’d argue this year’s DL doesn’t lack talent they’re just young (true freshmen & sophomores). Next year & beyond they will be dominant. This year, an elite OL like ND (pre-Patterson injury) could, at worst; create a stalemate. But that unit has been disrupted and what makes a unit like an OL so unique is they truly play as a unit (five fingers of a hand if you will). That’s why you’ve heard pundits give the 2020 OL unit better grades than the unit w/ McGlinchey, Nelson, Bars, Mustipher & Hainsey.

 

[Dizzyphil]

ESPN just updated their line -



Clemson -10.5


https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401256001

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Actually been on the board for many years. You can think what you want. Really dont care either way. No I wouldnt bet any more than a coke that ND will win either of those games. If you want to, go ahead. Doesnt make me a bad fan. It makes you haphazard and foolish when both teams talent on the teams are greater than NDs.

That doesnt say ND isnt a very good team. ND recruiting just hasnt been where those teams have been. Anyone can see that. Or should be able to.

As I said, I dont think ND will win either game. Hopefully Im wrong. But if Im not, which any realistic better would agree with me, hence the lines, then I hope ND keeps it respectable.

If that hurts your feelings...

I understand you've been on the board since '13, I can read. What I meant was, unless you were absent the week leading up to the first bout with Clemson, there were plenty on here who believed we could win. RE: Recruiting shortfall????? Thought I answered your question pretty spot on regarding starters who would start for the other teams. Our OL will likely win the Joe Moore award, so, pretty sure the best OL in the country could start for....any other team in the country.

JOK and Hamilton are both lay-up starters on any team nationwide, surprised you would overlook that. Bonafide top 10 picks in their respective drafts upcoming...

Didn't meant to insult you, so I apologize if I did. We proved that we could hang with Clemson and honestly, didn't even play our best. So throw the no TL excuses out the window, IMO, because we could've had a comfortable three score lead in the second half but let them hang around and take the lead late.

Just saying, I think there's good reason to believe this team can string together one final run here.

What though the odds.....

 

[Irish YJ]

This has been discussed ad nauseum but you can also see the flip side. We left a bunch of points on the field and could have beaten them soundly with better red zone efficiency. I just don't think this version of Clemson is double digits better than ND, even with TLaw, Skalski, and T Davis.

I think they also left some points on the field. And the fumble TD, and quick second fumble that led to a FG is basically 10pts from the D. There's a lot of factors you can use for both sides. I'm not saying ND necessarily is double digits worse than Clemson, but the line does not surprise me given all the factors. I could see the game being anything from a close ND win, to a blowout.

 

[Dizzyphil]

So - talking to my Nevada friend, he is telling me come game-time, the line could be as close as Clemson -4.5/-4.0....


He said heads are being scratched because same team, head-to-head match ups - ND is better on more games than Clemson.



He's thinking the O/U may change as well.. he thinks 60 is WAY to high - especially for a same team in same season re-match. DC's should know exactly what they need to do from play one.


But he did say the caveat is 'Sunshine' being back in the fold and the Clemson defense back to around 90-95%

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

If ND had their starting OL intact, I could agree with you but no one can deny that the OL struggled to get push in the UNC & SU games. Most Irish fans throw out the SU game due to Senior Day, the Orange’s record & looking ahead. That’s fine, but the UNC game was not a trap game. They were prepared for that and so was the UNC defense who had looked like trash the entire season as they struggled to get off the field. I believe if the OL had been intact, that unit would’ve pushed UNC around early & often vs relying on wearing them down over four quarters.

So now the OL has their center out for the biggest game of the year & the opponent has their stud DT back healthy who will now go up against a newcomer at center for the Irish. Not only does Correll (or Lugg) have to fend off Tyler Davis, they have to consider the blitzing LBs...the best of which is another key defender who didn’t play in the first game in Skalski.

It was pretty unanimous that ND won the first game b/c they dominated the trenches and most agree that is where the games are won. Now ND is at a deficit on their OL whereas Clemson is more improved. That’s the key to the game and likely where the spread comes from.

And that's a reasonable concern. Counterpoint is we've had 2 weeks to work on our revamped Oline.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I'll say it:

For the first game ND had a poor defensive game plan which completely gave away the middle of the field and significantly underestimated Uiagalelei. Clemson exploited it badly AFTER they made their halftime adjustments and in the end ND was only saved by the fact the DL beat on Clemson's OL until those guys became completely demoralized.

The game plan was too focused on Etienne. It correctly predicted Clemson wanted to focus on him but once Clemson moved away from that they had soft man coverage to throw against which didn't even try to take away short slants.

I expect a much different, more balanced defensive game plan the second time around. I would not be shocked if Clemson's offense produced fewer yards the second time around even with TL and with Etienne having more breathing room.

The passing game looks a lot better than it did heading into Clemson. But boy is the center position a huge question mark right now. Clemson is going to test the A gaps a bunch in the first half next week. I hope ND is able to punish them for it.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I'll say it:

For the first game ND had a poor defensive game plan which completely gave away the middle of the field and significantly underestimated Uiagalelei. Clemson exploited it badly AFTER they made their halftime adjustments and in the end ND was only saved by the fact the DL beat on Clemson's OL until those guys became completely demoralized.

The game plan was too focused on Etienne. It correctly predicted Clemson wanted to focus on him but once Clemson moved away from that they had soft man coverage to throw against which didn't even try to take away short slants.

I expect a much different, more balanced defensive game plan the second time around. I would not be shocked if Clemson's offense produced fewer yards the second time around even with TL and with Etienne having more breathing room.

The passing game looks a lot better than it did heading into Clemson. But boy is the center position a huge question mark right now. Clemson is going to test the A gaps a bunch in the first half next week. I hope ND is able to punish them for it.

Hopefully Kyren can have another stellar performance picking up the blitzers. What amazes me about him is his ability to interfere with the rush coming from any direction, not just up the middle. He's got great vision and does a nice job of picking up outside blitz at or near the OTs.

He was critical in November and will be again.

 

[IrishLion]

I'll say it:

For the first game ND had a poor defensive game plan which completely gave away the middle of the field and significantly underestimated Uiagalelei. Clemson exploited it badly AFTER they made their halftime adjustments and in the end ND was only saved by the fact the DL beat on Clemson's OL until those guys became completely demoralized.

The game plan was too focused on Etienne. It correctly predicted Clemson wanted to focus on him but once Clemson moved away from that they had soft man coverage to throw against which didn't even try to take away short slants.

I expect a much different, more balanced defensive game plan the second time around. I would not be shocked if Clemson's offense produced fewer yards the second time around even with TL and with Etienne having more breathing room.

The passing game looks a lot better than it did heading into Clemson. But boy is the center position a huge question mark right now. Clemson is going to test the A gaps a bunch in the first half next week. I hope ND is able to punish them for it.

Devil's Advocate to your Devil's Advocate:

When you're playing a team like Clemson, you have to pick your poison. They picked correctly in matchup one, because taking away Etienne extended the game by virtue of a relative 'shootout' despite the field goals and empty red zone possessions.

Even after Clemson adjusted and started airing it out, Lea/ND continued to say "we aren't going to let you start leaning on Etienne, the frosh is going to have to keep beating us."

And I think you have to stick with that game plan. If Lawrence is an all-world QB, you have to make him be an all-world QB to beat you by shutting down Etienne and asking Lawrence to replicate what DJ U did.

If you try to play a balanced gameplan, Etienne and Lawrence are BOTH going to go HAM, because that's what Clemson does.

So pick one to stop, knowing that the other is going to make some plays anyway... but at least you're forcing that other guy to essentially be perfect. And I'd rather force the QB to play a perfect game (even if it IS Lawrence, who is totally capable of doing so), because giving Etienne an easy path means they run down the field, and getting run over is probably more demoralizing than Lawrence throwing a few over the top.

 

[ulukinatme]

Wingman Ray just oozes positivity!

 

[Irishize]

Devil's Advocate to your Devil's Advocate:

When you're playing a team like Clemson, you have to pick your poison. They picked correctly in matchup one, because taking away Etienne extended the game by virtue of a relative 'shootout' despite the field goals and empty red zone possessions.

Even after Clemson adjusted and started airing it out, Lea/ND continued to say "we aren't going to let you start leaning on Etienne, the frosh is going to have to keep beating us."

And I think you have to stick with that game plan. If Lawrence is an all-world QB, you have to make him be an all-world QB to beat you by shutting down Etienne and asking Lawrence to replicate what DJ U did.

If you try to play a balanced gameplan, Etienne and Lawrence are BOTH going to go HAM, because that's what Clemson does.

So pick one to stop, knowing that the other is going to make some plays anyway... but at least you're forcing that other guy to essentially be perfect. And I'd rather force the QB to play a perfect game (even if it IS Lawrence, who is totally capable of doing so), because giving Etienne an easy path means they run down the field, and getting run over is probably more demoralizing than Lawrence throwing a few over the top.

I agree. Etienne’ s rushing numbers are down from previous two years but his OL isn’t as strong & he’s been able to compensate w/ his pass catching. Go watch highlights of Clemson’s other games. He is deadly in space so expect TL to try to set Etienne up w/ plenty of screens. When he gets a head of steam, he’s tough to tackle. I don’t know if TL can make up for games he missed due to COVID to get invited to virtual Heisman territory, but if ever he had an opportunity for a “Heisman moment” it will be in the game next week with a chance to avenge a loss his team suffered w/o his services. Conversely, you can say the same thing about Book. Beat Clemson TWICE?!?!? That’s two Heisman monuments!

 

[Irishize]

I understand you've been on the board since '13, I can read. What I meant was, unless you were absent the week leading up to the first bout with Clemson, there were plenty on here who believed we could win. RE: Recruiting shortfall????? Thought I answered your question pretty spot on regarding starters who would start for the other teams. Our OL will likely win the Joe Moore award, so, pretty sure the best OL in the country could start for....any other team in the country.

JOK and Hamilton are both lay-up starters on any team nationwide, surprised you would overlook that. Bonafide top 10 picks in their respective drafts upcoming...

Didn't meant to insult you, so I apologize if I did. We proved that we could hang with Clemson and honestly, didn't even play our best. So throw the no TL excuses out the window, IMO, because we could've had a comfortable three score lead in the second half but let them hang around and take the lead late.

Just saying, I think there's good reason to believe this team can string together one final run here.

What though the odds.....

I agreed w/ “Best OL in the country” going into UNC game but I think the last two games vs inferior defenses haven’t kept the needle at “best”. If I had to bet money today, I’d say Bama’s OL wins the Joe Moore Award. Had Patterson not been lost to injury, it was ND’s award to lose. They just don’t look as dominant in his absence.

 

[Wingman Ray]

Wingman Ray just oozes positivity!

Man I tell you, I would absolutely love ND to win. Love it.

I grew up in Indiana listening to the ND fight song every morning of weightlifting in high school. I went to college in north Indiana. Ive never stopped loving ND.

I spent 13 years in Baton Rouge, LA after leaving college and that isnt a fun place to be a yankee team fan in. But I did. Been here in Birmingham, AL for the last ten years. Do I need to state at all how fun 2012 was getting crushed by Bama while living here?

So Ive paid my dues and Im still all in. Not feeling real confident against two of the biggest firepowers the last decade doesnt make me a bad fan. Ive shared quite a few letdowns right along with you guys for many, many years now.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I agreed w/ “Best OL in the country” going into UNC game but I think the last two games vs inferior defenses haven’t kept the needle at “best”. If I had to bet money today, I’d say Bama’s OL wins the Joe Moore Award. Had Patterson not been lost to injury, it was ND’s award to lose. They just don’t look as dominant in his absence.

I think if you look at the body of work they put in leading up to the UNC game, prior to losing Patterson, it might be enough to justify giving it to ND. IIRC, our PFF grade up front was quite a few points higher than "Bama and the rest. Maybe I missed an update along the way.

Either way, MAYBE Bama would take their own OL if we're cherry picking, but we have 5 (when healthy) guys up front that, collectively, would start just about anywhere in the country.

 

[Irish#1]

Not to be Debbie Downer here...

But did anyone really expect ND to be a NC contender this year? I mean, Im sure everyone here thought the team would have a good showing but no one expected the win over Clemson and traditionally, ND steps in it when it comes to game they should win.

And honestly on paper, how many ND starters would start for Bama, Clemson or OSU? Seriously. Possibly the TE on offense or 1 or 2 OL? How many realistically defense wise? Be honest with yourself.

I dont expect a rematch win vs Clemson and I dont expect a win vs Bama week one. Im hoping for it stays respectable but I really think Clemson would love to run the score up to show that game was a severe fluke without several of their starters. If ND doesnt bring their A++ game, that is exactly what will happen.

If ND keeps either of those games single digits it is a major win for the program TBH. Because every year prior, those games were embarrassments.

My point is both games could get out of hand and get ugly for ND, we might go from having the best season ever to two crushing defeats in the space of a few weeks

If ND had their starting OL intact, I could agree with you but no one can deny that the OL struggled to get push in the UNC & SU games. Most Irish fans throw out the SU game due to Senior Day, the Orange’s record & looking ahead. That’s fine, but the UNC game was not a trap game. They were prepared for that and so was the UNC defense who had looked like trash the entire season as they struggled to get off the field. I believe if the OL had been intact, that unit would’ve pushed UNC around early & often vs relying on wearing them down over four quarters.

So now the OL has their center out for the biggest game of the year & the opponent has their stud DT back healthy who will now go up against a newcomer at center for the Irish. Not only does Correll (or Lugg) have to fend off Tyler Davis, they have to consider the blitzing LBs...the best of which is another key defender who didn’t play in the first game in Skalski.

It was pretty unanimous that ND won the first game b/c they dominated the trenches and most agree that is where the games are won. Now ND is at a deficit on their OL whereas Clemson is more improved. That’s the key to the game and likely where the spread comes from.

You guys been watching the same ND team this year or have I been watching in an alternate universe?

This team has already shown they matchup very well talent wise. Maybe not as deep, but enough to be competitive and win.

Maybe Clemson will be looking for revenge, but being an 11 point dog will be plenty of motivation for this team.

Book may not be as talented as Lawrence, but he's playing as good as him.

This team has shown it has the mental makeup to win. They won't come in unprepared. They won't flinch and they'll keeping hammering away until the game is over. Clemson may win, but it won't be a cakewalk.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

You guys been watching the same ND team this year or have I been watching in an alternate universe?

This team has already shown they matchup very well talent wise. Maybe not as deep, but enough to be competitive and win.

Maybe Clemson will be looking for revenge, but being an 11 point dog will be plenty of motivation for this team.

Book may not be as talented as Lawrence, but he's playing as good as him.

This team has shown it has the mental makeup to win. They won't come in unprepared. They won't flinch and they'll keeping hammering away until the game is over. Clemson may win, but it won't be a cakewalk.

Agree. Admittedly a homer, but at 11/11.5 you gotta take ND and the points. I wouldn't bet on a blowout in this one.

 

[Irish#1]

I'll say it:

For the first game ND had a poor defensive game plan which completely gave away the middle of the field and significantly underestimated Uiagalelei. Clemson exploited it badly AFTER they made their halftime adjustments and in the end ND was only saved by the fact the DL beat on Clemson's OL until those guys became completely demoralized.

The game plan was too focused on Etienne. It correctly predicted Clemson wanted to focus on him but once Clemson moved away from that they had soft man coverage to throw against which didn't even try to take away short slants.

I expect a much different, more balanced defensive game plan the second time around. I would not be shocked if Clemson's offense produced fewer yards the second time around even with TL and with Etienne having more breathing room.

The passing game looks a lot better than it did heading into Clemson. But boy is the center position a huge question mark right now. Clemson is going to test the A gaps a bunch in the first half next week. I hope ND is able to punish them for it.

Devil's Advocate to your Devil's Advocate:

When you're playing a team like Clemson, you have to pick your poison. They picked correctly in matchup one, because taking away Etienne extended the game by virtue of a relative 'shootout' despite the field goals and empty red zone possessions.

Even after Clemson adjusted and started airing it out, Lea/ND continued to say "we aren't going to let you start leaning on Etienne, the frosh is going to have to keep beating us."

And I think you have to stick with that game plan. If Lawrence is an all-world QB, you have to make him be an all-world QB to beat you by shutting down Etienne and asking Lawrence to replicate what DJ U did.

If you try to play a balanced gameplan, Etienne and Lawrence are BOTH going to go HAM, because that's what Clemson does.

So pick one to stop, knowing that the other is going to make some plays anyway... but at least you're forcing that other guy to essentially be perfect. And I'd rather force the QB to play a perfect game (even if it IS Lawrence, who is totally capable of doing so), because giving Etienne an easy path means they run down the field, and getting run over is probably more demoralizing than Lawrence throwing a few over the top.

Yep, you do what you did the last game. Make them one dimensional by taking away the run game. O-lines wear down more pass blocking because they are taking the brunt of the impact instead of giving it. They also know who their man is in run blocking. Throw in the blitz and mistakes are made. I expect Lea will use the same plan to shut down the run, but make some adjustments on the back end to force Lawrence to throw to the sidelines.

 

[NDisme]

Our Offense needs to do better against zone D than they were against Syracuse that’s for sure.

 

[Irishize]

You guys been watching the same ND team this year or have I been watching in an alternate universe?

This team has already shown they matchup very well talent wise. Maybe not as deep, but enough to be competitive and win.

Maybe Clemson will be looking for revenge, but being an 11 point dog will be plenty of motivation for this team.

Book may not be as talented as Lawrence, but he's playing as good as him.

This team has shown it has the mental makeup to win. They won't come in unprepared. They won't flinch and they'll keeping hammering away until the game is over. Clemson may win, but it won't be a cakewalk.

Nope just dealing with a pretty glaring fact that ND no longer has their Joe Moore Award worthy OL intact yet Clemson has improved their front seven by nature of simply getting their better players healthy.

 

[IrishLax]

Dabo just put Ohio State on blast. He said they're good enough to win the whole thing but that they don't deserve to be in playing a 6 game schedule. Said they had the opportunity to play a real schedule but chose not to and that's their fault. Said that the only reason we have CFB at all is because of the leadership of the ACC, SEC, and Big 12.

He implied strongly that the SEC and ACC should both get two teams in and that nothing that happens in the championship games should be held against the participants who have played 10+ games.

 

[NDRock]

Dabo just put Ohio State on blast. He said they're good enough to win the whole thing but that they don't deserve to be in playing a 6 game schedule. Said they had the opportunity to play a real schedule but chose not to and that's their fault. Said that the only reason we have CFB at all is because of the leadership of the ACC, SEC, and Big 12.

He implied strongly that the SEC and ACC should both get two teams in and that nothing that happens in the championship games should be held against the participants who have played 10+ games.

Damn, now I have to agree with Dabo on something. Thanks for that.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Nope just dealing with a pretty glaring fact that ND no longer has their Joe Moore Award worthy OL intact yet Clemson has improved their front seven by nature of simply getting their better players healthy.

Let's not underestimate the fact that we get two weeks to heal up. Patterson was a major loss but we have Kraemer back, so it's between Lugg and Correll at Center and both fantastic options to have.

 

[Irishize]

Dabo just put Ohio State on blast. He said they're good enough to win the whole thing but that they don't deserve to be in playing a 6 game schedule. Said they had the opportunity to play a real schedule but chose not to and that's their fault. Said that the only reason we have CFB at all is because of the leadership of the ACC, SEC, and Big 12.

He implied strongly that the SEC and ACC should both get two teams in and that nothing that happens in the championship games should be held against the participants who have played 10+ games.

Wow! I like what Rece Davis said about tOSU. It’s all about attrition and you don’t have to deal w/ the attrition that Bama, Clemson & ND went through when you’re sitting out waiting for some one-off game.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Dabo just put Ohio State on blast. He said they're good enough to win the whole thing but that they don't deserve to be in playing a 6 game schedule. Said they had the opportunity to play a real schedule but chose not to and that's their fault. Said that the only reason we have CFB at all is because of the leadership of the ACC, SEC, and Big 12.

He implied strongly that the SEC and ACC should both get two teams in and that nothing that happens in the championship games should be held against the participants who have played 10+ games.

Saw that and largely agree with it, though I'm not sure that Clemson would deserve it if they lost to ND. If Bama beats UF, and ND beats Clemson, then I think you could make the argument that A&M and OSU deserve the other two spots over two loss Clemson.

If Clemson beats ND (assuming ND kept it close and competitive), agree with Dabo that both should be in over OSU.

 

[Irishize]

Let's not underestimate the fact that we get two weeks to heal up. Patterson was a major loss but we have Kraemer back, so it's between Lugg and Correll at Center and both fantastic options to have.

I hope like hell you are right. Lugg is a tackle > guard > center in that order so it’s his 3rd best position. As a fan w/o insight, I’d prefer Correll b/c he’s been training at center. He’s undersized but if he can get healthy enough to where his ankle is not an issue, then he should be able to hold his own w/ Banks & Kraemer flanking him.

I get frustrated when Prister & Sampson basically dismiss the chance of ND getting blown out and are assuming regardless what happens that ND is in the CFP. Both of those guys have been the absolute worst in predicting games this season. The always underestimate the opponent despite the opponent having the “worst defense in the nation”. They never learn.

 

[dublinirish]

Tyler Davis been ballin at DT since he got back for Clemson

 

[Irishize]

Tyler Davis been ballin at DT since he got back for Clemson

If he’s on the field, you can assume he’s ballin’. Dude is a stud.

 

[Dizzyphil]

https://www.si.com/college/notredam...s2ScLnvXQl-UrKuKNACxEISagMaR_pfmBmQG8nSNLpgXM

 

[NDohio]

Dabo just put Ohio State on blast. He said they're good enough to win the whole thing but that they don't deserve to be in playing a 6 game schedule. Said they had the opportunity to play a real schedule but chose not to and that's their fault. Said that the only reason we have CFB at all is because of the leadership of the ACC, SEC, and Big 12.

He implied strongly that the SEC and ACC should both get two teams in and that nothing that happens in the championship games should be held against the participants who have played 10+ games.

He made this statement based on his knowledge that ND is better than Clemson and is going to beat his team next Saturday. He is trying to lobby for his team getting in with two losses.

 

[tussin]

Saw that and largely agree with it, though I'm not sure that Clemson would deserve it if they lost to ND. If Bama beats UF, and ND beats Clemson, then I think you could make the argument that A&M and OSU deserve the other two spots over two loss Clemson.

If Clemson beats ND (assuming ND kept it close and competitive), agree with Dabo that both should be in over OSU.

If ND and Clemson cancelled their conference championship game who would get in? It would be Bama, A&M, ND, and Clemson. OSU is basically benefitting from playing NOBODY, literally and figuratively. They deserve no benefit of the doubt given that the last game they played against a half-decent team was against Clemson last year and they lost.

The next level play here is for ND and Clemson to get some "outbreaks" and just cancel, thereby guaranteeing that the B1G gets left out as they should. We all know that OSU doesn't have the resume of a playoff team.