COVID-19

[Old Man Mike]

From a physics point of view, "Sunlight" (in real world situations) is not an automatic virus destroyer. At these ultra-micro levels (where the interactions take place) it's still a statistical game as to whether the UV wavelengths hit the viruses in the right bonds to inactivate their function (probably their bonding sites but maybe also several other vulnerable things like insertion mechanisms or nucleic acid interference or imposture in key biochemical arenas.)

Whatever's going on "down there" at the level of molecules (we are still modeling away in the dark) it's bound to be complicated, and viruses are almost surely able to rejoin certain broken bonds and still create havoc. So, being outside in the Sun: do the UV rays happen to hit every migrant virus hard enough in the right chemical bond areas to deactivate them? The point is that this isn't Magic nor is it the treatment that you could give exposed viruses on the lab bench.

Will being out a lot in the Sun kills some viruses? Sure. It won't kill them all in nano-seconds just when you and they have your little path crossings however --- this is a game of statistically REDUCING risks not canceling them. In that odd sense, an ENGINEERED inside environment has much better chances of stopping viral infections than an external uncontrolled one. Is an external uncontrolled one better than an internal uncontrolled one? Sure, due to the potential uncontrolled concentration. Is an uncontrolled external environment better than a "trying-to-be" controlled inside environment? Probably not. What are the chances in ANY environment of viable viral passage from one person to another? That estimate (differing environment to environment) is the only meaningful comparative issue. Sun isn't magic nor is it the only factor in passing something along.

 

[Irishize]

Indoor settings are multiples worse for contracting COVID, but to say that there is no risk to getting COVID while outdoors is wrong. You can absolutely get COVID while in an outdoor setting, however the ability to track that is so impossibly hard they'll never find proof that it's a risk.

Yes, UV breaks down SARS-CoV-2, but unlike what Joe Rogan keeps saying, it doesn't happen the instant it hits sunlight. Also, wind will start to break the virus down, but that doesn't mean you're risk-free. Just like how dust can get in your eyes, so can the virus. Call me paranoid, but I try not to be downwind from anyone for extended periods of time -- certainly not if I'm facing the person.

Thank you. This is a fair post

 

[Irishize]

I’ll drop this as I have no interest in bogging down on points people won’t concede. All I can say is I have seen no traces that determined the BLM protests led to an outbreak in positive test results. I will gladly review any evidence that says otherwise. I have not found it yet. But if there is I will gladly review and assess for myself.

There were several very public instances of gatherings where the guidance was not followed either intentionally or apathetically and outbreaks occurred. Namely Tulsa, Arkansas , Vegas, and Myrtle Beach. There is documentation that the guidances were not followed and that led to outbreaks locally and others spread by people from out of town back to their locale. I believe these were assessed to have originated under these circumstances.

I can speak to Arkansas specifically as I live here. Our spikes were the result of 3 clusters:

1. In the early stages before we knew about masks/social distancing, a rural church in Heber Springs had a concentrated outbreak that was luckily contained and didn’t spread to the general pop in that town.

2. When the state tested the prison symptoms, the second spike was seen from this group of super spreaders so this wasn’t as alarming as it made sense that so many positive (asymptomatic or not) tests would arise. This was obviously contained b/c of the ability to lock these buildings down. Inmates are now mandated to mask up.

3. Tyson chicken is located in Springdale AR. They employ many immigrants at their processing plants. One specific community is the Marshallese who have been disproportionately affected in both Springdale & Spokane, WA. It’s reported they house up to 10-15 people per household which may explain the disproportionate spread.

the one thing those three spikes have in common is large groups congregating/living indoors. So, if outdoor protests are safe as you say, then why no fans in baseball stadiums at MLB games for example? If chaotic protests can occur daily w/o any spikes, then I don’t see the problem w/ everyday outdoor events taking place...especially when you consider masks & social distancing mandates they can put in outdoor stadiums. That’s just one example and look at all the people adversely affected b/c their jobs weren’t needed. The million dollar athletes are doing just fine, but the beer vendor, the ticket office, the souvenir stands, the concession stands workers are just a few examples of people losing their incomes. What do you think they think when they’re told it’s too dangerous for them to work despite seeing protests (sometimes violent) being applauded & encouraged?

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

I can speak to Arkansas specifically as I live here. Our spikes were the result of 3 clusters:

1. In the early stages before we knew about masks/social distancing, a rural church in Heber Springs had a concentrated outbreak that was luckily contained and didn’t spread to the general pop in that town.

2. When the state tested the prison symptoms, the second spike was seen from this group of super spreaders so this wasn’t as alarming as it made sense that so many positive (asymptomatic or not) tests would arise. This was obviously contained b/c of the ability to lock these buildings down. Inmates are now mandated to mask up.

3. Tyson chicken is located in Springdale AR. They employ many immigrants at their processing plants. One specific community is the Marshallese who have been disproportionately affected in both Springdale & Spokane, WA. It’s reported they house up to 10-15 people per household which may explain the disproportionate spread.

the one thing those three spikes have in common is large groups congregating/living indoors. So, if outdoor protests are safe as you say, then why no fans in baseball stadiums at MLB games for example? If chaotic protests can occur daily w/o any spikes, then I don’t see the problem w/ everyday outdoor events taking place...especially when you consider masks & social distancing mandates they can put in outdoor stadiums. That’s just one example and look at all the people adversely affected b/c their jobs weren’t needed. The million dollar athletes are doing just fine, but the beer vendor, the ticket office, the souvenir stands, the concession stands workers are just a few examples of people losing their incomes. What do you think they think when they’re told it’s too dangerous for them to work despite seeing protests (sometimes violent) being applauded & encouraged?

My local example is Myrtle Beach. We shut down for a month then the Gov opened up and MB was flooded with out of town people on vacation. Our statewide cases exploded, people on vacation got sick and took it back to places that already had their peaks and new outbreaks occurred.

Our high statewide cases can be attributed to people outdoors and indoors not following proper hygiene guidance. I dont care about inside versus outside as that isnt what the driving force is. Its not using masks, social distancing.

You keep asking about base ball and such... ask yourself as an owner with limited incoming revenue and insurance and a responsibility to not spread the disease, are you gonna play unqualified people to decontaminate all surfaces in the baseball or football stadium? Are you gonna create a line item that your budget isnt prepared for to ensure your property is safe for occupancy? Im gonna think not so much. Its why the bubbles were created.

Again you keep framing it like I said outside was better than inside. I didn't. I said there was a group of people that followed protocols as best they could and a group that took a shit on them Guess which ones got sick and made things worse and guess which one's (as far as I know) didnt.

I say this with some confidence that when people go to the primary care for testing and they came back positive, the doctors would inquire where you were or who you were in contact with and I would expect people to say that being in a protest around a large group of people would come up as a possible source regardless of if hey could trace it back to an individual. AM I saying no one got sick at the protests? No I am not. AM I saying the protests have not been linked to outbreaks or clusters? Yes as I have been provided any evidence tha tis the case.

 

[Irishize]

My local example is Myrtle Beach. We shut down for a month then the Gov opened up and MB was flooded with out of town people on vacation. Our statewide cases exploded, people on vacation got sick and took it back to places that already had their peaks and new outbreaks occurred.

Our high statewide cases can be attributed to people outdoors and indoors not following proper hygiene guidance. I dont care about inside versus outside as that isnt what the driving force is. Its not using masks, social distancing.

You keep asking about base ball and such... ask yourself as an owner with limited incoming revenue and insurance and a responsibility to not spread the disease, are you gonna play unqualified people to decontaminate all surfaces in the baseball or football stadium? Are you gonna create a line item that your budget isnt prepared for to ensure your property is safe for occupancy? Im gonna think not so much. Its why the bubbles were created.

Again you keep framing it like I said outside was better than inside. I didn't. I said there was a group of people that followed protocols as best they could and a group that took a shit on them Guess which ones got sick and made things worse and guess which one's (as far as I know) didnt.

I say this with some confidence that when people go to the primary care for testing and they came back positive, the doctors would inquire where you were or who you were in contact with and I would expect people to say that being in a protest around a large group of people would come up as a possible source regardless of if hey could trace it back to an individual. AM I saying no one got sick at the protests? No I am not. AM I saying the protests have not been linked to outbreaks or clusters? Yes as I have been provided any evidence tha tis the case.

To compare Myrtle Beach (a vacation destination) to the 3 reasons my state had spikes apples & oranges. I agree with you on what happens when folks come in from different states from across the nation.

I used baseball as an example b/c I watch MLB games nightly and wonder why they can’t get at least 20% capacity. To your question...I saw it done in July at a MiLB stadium. In fact, I attended a game there. Seats were roped off to ensure 6 ft social distancing. Masks were mandated at all times unless in your socially distanced seat. Temps & liability forms were taken/signed upon entry. It was a roaring success b/c people were compliant. So don’t you have no evidence to the contrary & the protests actually support it even more based on your supporting argument.

I’m glad you have faith that most protesters honestly stated to their PCP that they attended a protest in the previous 2 weeks. Especially when they knew that they’re participation would be watched by their detractors as a reason for spikes. By the way, which protest did you attend (truly curious...I don’t mean this in an Eddie Haskell tone)?

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

To compare Myrtle Beach (a vacation destination) to the 3 reasons my state had spikes apples & oranges. I agree with you on what happens when folks come in from different states from across the nation.

I used baseball as an example b/c I watch MLB games nightly and wonder why they can’t get at least 20% capacity. To your question...I saw it done in July at a MiLB stadium. In fact, I attended a game there. Seats were roped off to ensure 6 ft social distancing. Masks were mandated at all times unless in your socially distanced seat. Temps & liability forms were taken/signed upon entry. It was a roaring success b/c people were compliant. So don’t you have no evidence to the contrary & the protests actually support it even more based on your supporting argument.

I’m glad you have faith that most protesters honestly stated to their PCP that they attended a protest in the previous 2 weeks. Especially when they knew that they’re participation would be watched by their detractors as a reason for spikes. By the way, which protest did you attend (truly curious...I don’t mean this in an Eddie Haskell tone)?

Im glad we got past the inside outside contention becasue it doesnt matter. Im glad you saw it at a stadium and I am glad people were compliant. Thats great. Its not common though at any professional sport. Now, ask yourself can that owner put, not 20%, but 45%, 65%, 80% and still maintain cleanliness or enforce compliance...? At what cost?

I didnt attend any protests anywhere and that has zero relevance to my agreement or disagreement with said protests.

Im sorry... I dont understand what you are implying about people and their PCPs. Are you suggesting that the scenario that a person who attended a protest and got sick and went to their PCP to get help and treatment would intentionally lie to the PCP to specifically hide from an unknown detractor's already biased opinion? That's interesting.

 

[calvegas04]

White house just purchased 150 million of the new rapid test kits

 

[Legacy]

Eureka Springs has seen a large increase in Covid cases due to tourists in general, visitors to Branson, and failure of any attempts by locals to encourage masks.

 

[yankeehater]

Positive news out of Spain...another study showing children are not effective spreaders of Covid. Their spread rate numbers are much lower than adults and lower than their rates for both the common cold and annual flu.

https://www.brownstoneresearch.com/bleeding-edge/ai-wins-darpa-fighter-pilot-simulation/

 

[Irish#1]

Positive news out of Spain...another study showing children are not effective spreaders of Covid. Their spread rate numbers are much lower than adults and lower than their rates for both the common cold and annual flu.

https://www.brownstoneresearch.com/bleeding-edge/ai-wins-darpa-fighter-pilot-simulation/

Because they’re shorter?

 

[irishff1014]

Positive news out of Spain...another study showing children are not effective spreaders of Covid. Their spread rate numbers are much lower than adults and lower than their rates for both the common cold and annual flu.

https://www.brownstoneresearch.com/bleeding-edge/ai-wins-darpa-fighter-pilot-simulation/

Do you not read? This has been the story all along here.

 

[Valpodoc85]

I think brownstone is significantly over stating the findings. The Spanish study done with 1900 children enrolled was performed at summer camps where the majority of the activities were outside. To conflate that to a classroom standard is ludicrous. I believe the brownstone author is beating a political drum and not reporting scientific facts

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Do you not read? This has been the story all along here.

This news to me. I haven’t seen anything close to a consensus this is the case. All I have read is some say it some say it doesn’t and in general all doctors at least accept it is unclear.

 

[Legacy]

Comparing SARS-CoV-2 with SARS-CoV and influenza pandemics

Key messages
• The basic reproductive rate (R0) of severe acute respiratory
syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is similar to, or
higher than, the R0 of SARS-CoV and pandemic influenza
• Mortality due to SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV is strongly
skewed towards people older than 70 years, dissimilar to
the 1918 and 2009 influenza pandemics
• The proportion of symptomatic people requiring hospital
admission is higher for SARS-CoV-2 infections than for
the 2009 influenza pandemic
• The population risk of admission to the intensive care unit
is five to six times higher in patients infected with
SARS-CoV-2 than in those with the fairly mild
2009 influenza pandemic
• The case fatality rate is probably around 1% after
adjusting for asymptomatic and mild illness; serological
studies will aid in refining this estimate

The Brownstone blogger reports the Spanish study used R(0).
Why R0 Is Problematic for Predicting COVID-19 Spread

- R0 also depends on how often people come into contact with one another, and that can differ drastically between countries, cities, or neighborhoods.
- Re captures transmission once a virus becomes more common and as public health measures are initiated.

He should link the study. The assumption we have to make is that the all 1900 kids did not wear masks. I suspect he is promoting this for his conclusion:

In short, there is not a damn bit of science that justifies forcing kids to wear face masks.

Perhaps not if they are in summer camps.

 

[Valpodoc85]

Also the study was done with saliva not swabs. Data is a bit inconclusive as to how accurate that is. I have read studies saying more accurate some less. Needless to say this data goes on the pile to be sorted out later and is not conclusive. Early on there was a retrospective of super spreaders that seemed to indicate a reduced spread on aircraft. It was theorized that because people are “quiet” on aircraft spread is lower. This plays in with the water droplet spread vs aerosolized spread. Like influenza I suspect it is a bit of both with waterborne spread the more common.
Having children back in school seems reasonable. Not following social distancing or mask recommendations not so much

 

[SonofOahu]

Positive news out of Spain...another study showing children are not effective spreaders of Covid. Their spread rate numbers are much lower than adults and lower than their rates for both the common cold and annual flu.

https://www.brownstoneresearch.com/bleeding-edge/ai-wins-darpa-fighter-pilot-simulation/

No

I think brownstone is significantly over stating the findings. The Spanish study done with 1900 children enrolled was performed at summer camps where the majority of the activities were outside. To conflate that to a classroom standard is ludicrous. I believe the brownstone author is beating a political drum and not reporting scientific facts

This.

People, if you're going to post an opinion on a research paper, journal article, etc. why not just post the original work so we can see what the facts are?

 

[SonofOahu]

This news to me. I haven’t seen anything close to a consensus this is the case. All I have read is some say it some say it doesn’t and in general all doctors at least accept it is unclear.

The argument against making students mask up has been centered around stunted psychosocial development. I kind of see that point, but with the younger generation being so attached to online interactions, it's almost a moot one.

 

[RDU Irish]

6% - thought I would come here and get some color on the CDC revision.

 

[notredomer23]

6% - thought I would come here and get some color on the CDC revision.

It’s not really any new info IMO. If you get COVID and you don’t have hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, or other comorbidities, and you’re not in far advanced age, you’re gonna be fine. Prob part of why US has had so many deaths because we’re an extremely unhealthy nation.

 

[ab2cmiller]

It’s not really any new info IMO. If you get COVID and you don’t have hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, or other comorbidities, and you’re not in far advanced age, you’re gonna be fine. Prob part of why US has had so many deaths because we’re an extremely unhealthy nation.

Agreed. If I would've guessed, I would've been between 5% - 10%.

 

[RDU Irish]

I agree we already knew this but why the revision now? Is this an admission that C19 is just present in these deaths and not the primary cause or instigating factor? Is a primary cause even given? I mean how do you pin a specific cause of death on a 300 pound, diabetic with heart disease and COPD?

Curious what some of the Covid Hawks on here think.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

6% - thought I would come here and get some color on the CDC revision.

What is this about? What are you asking? 6%?

 

[ab2cmiller]

What is this about? What are you asking? 6%?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3-wrg3tTKK5-9tOHPGAHWFVO3DfslkJ0KsDEPQpWmPbKtp6EsoVV2Qs1Q

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Thank you. I have an honest question. Is 6% bad? What was it revised from?

Is it worse than other viral diseases? How are those 6% judged to have only died of COVID? I assume they were otherwise healthy and not known to have underlying issues. I dont know, I do find it hard to believe that anyone dies of anything specifically without other agents of influence (ie HIV/AIDS patients tend to die not if HIV but other diseases).

Also, I think that the death toll from COVID isnt the end all of it either as its clear that post-COVID illnesses are a thing (though not yet understood). It may be that having gotten COVID may lead to other conditions from which you may suffer or die from. My doctor has told me of this being the case with other patients he is currently treating. He said he has patients that have gotten COVID and gotten over it but are returning with clearly worse pre-existing conditions or new issues.

 

[Legacy]

Thank you. I have an honest question. Is 6% bad? What was it revised from?

Is it worse than other viral diseases? How are those 6% judged to have only died of COVID? I assume they were otherwise healthy and not known to have underlying issues. I dont know, I do find it hard to believe that anyone dies of anything specifically without other agents of influence (ie HIV/AIDS patients tend to die not if HIV but other diseases).

Also, I think that the death toll from COVID isnt the end all of it either as its clear that post-COVID illnesses are a thing (though not yet understood). It may be that having gotten COVID may lead to other conditions from which you may suffer or die from. My doctor has told me of this being the case with other patients he is currently treating. He said he has patients that have gotten COVID and gotten over it but are returning with clearly worse pre-existing conditions or new issues.

Yes, very much so since it's not only a novel coronavirus but induces the inflammatory reaction of cytokine storm leading to Adult Respiratory Syndrome. It transmits itself through the ACE2 cells which are prevalent in the cardio-pulmonary system. It has a thrombotic features causing strokes and myocardial infarctions and its cardiac pathology includes myocarditis and cardiomyopathy often resulting in permanent disabilities as you and ValpoDoc have mentioned. Heart muscle damage may lead to arrhythmias. There may be some genetic components that explain the increased deaths in males and minorities.

We don't have meds like Tamiflu when first symptoms show or rapid testing. With the flu, symptoms show early. With Covid, transmission before symptoms can be 5-6 days or asysmptomatic, as you know. No partial immunity from previous exposures to similar viruses, or even previous vaccinations for different types.

A good review:
Pathophysiology, Transmission, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
A Review

The most common symptoms in hospitalized patients are fever (up to 90% of patients), dry cough (60%-86%), shortness of breath (53%-80%), fatigue (38%), nausea/vomiting or diarrhea (15%-39%), and myalgia (15%-44%).18,44-47,49,50 Patients can also present with nonclassical symptoms, such as isolated gastrointestinal symptoms.18 Olfactory and/or gustatory dysfunctions have been reported in 64% to 80% of patients.51-53 Anosmia or ageusia may be the sole presenting symptom in approximately 3% of patients.53

Complications of COVID-19 include impaired function of the heart, brain, lung, liver, kidney, and coagulation system. COVID-19 can lead to myocarditis, cardiomyopathy, ventricular arrhythmias, and hemodynamic instability.20,54 Acute cerebrovascular disease and encephalitis are observed with severe illness (in up to 8% of patients).21,52 Venous and arterial thromboembolic events occur in 10% to 25% in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.19,22 In the ICU, venous and arterial thromboembolic events may occur in up to 31% to 59% of patients with COVID-19.16,22

Approximately 17% to 35% of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 are treated in an ICU, most commonly due to hypoxemic respiratory failure. Among patients in the ICU with COVID-19, 29% to 91% require invasive mechanical ventilation.47,49,55,56 In addition to respiratory failure, hospitalized patients may develop acute kidney injury (9%), liver dysfunction (19%), bleeding and coagulation dysfunction (10%-25%), and septic shock (6%).18,19,23,49,56

 

[ab2cmiller]

Biden shares his thoughts on Covid

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/ThomasCatenacci/status/1300494641180139521[/TWEET]

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Herd immunity? Sweden model? Sweden had a higher death rate than Denmark, Norway, and Finland, AND its economy did worse. The only alternative to controlling the virus is more deaths and more economic devastation. Choose health. <a href="https://t.co/vhIlh5knMc">pic.twitter.com/vhIlh5knMc</a></p>— Dr. Tom Frieden (@DrTomFrieden) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrTomFrieden/status/1300449586096541700?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 31, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Valpodoc85]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3-wrg3tTKK5-9tOHPGAHWFVO3DfslkJ0KsDEPQpWmPbKtp6EsoVV2Qs1Q

If a person is diabetic and has heart disease but dies of pancreatic cancer he still died of pancreatic cancer. Death certificates tract comorbidities as an easy way to track illness over time. Covid is Darwinian like all illnesses it affects the weakest first. You still died of covid at the end of the day.
Do not forget the JAMA study showing 78/100 people with mild or minimal symptoms had findings on cardiac MRI after they recovered

 

[SonofOahu]

I agree we already knew this but why the revision now? Is this an admission that C19 is just present in these deaths and not the primary cause or instigating factor? Is a primary cause even given? I mean how do you pin a specific cause-of-death on a 300 pound, diabetic with heart disease and COPD?

Curious what some of the Covid Hawks on here think.

6% - thought I would come here and get some color on the CDC revision.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3-wrg3tTKK5-9tOHPGAHWFVO3DfslkJ0KsDEPQpWmPbKtp6EsoVV2Qs1Q

If a person is diabetic and has heart disease but dies of pancreatic cancer he still died of pancreatic cancer. Death certificates tract comorbidities as an easy way to track illness over time. Covid is Darwinian like all illnesses it affects the weakest first. You still died of covid at the end of the day.
Do not forget the JAMA study showing 78/100 people with mild or minimal symptoms had findings on cardiac MRI after they recovered

There's a long post on FB explaining cause of death sections, I'm sure it'll make its rounds because it's pretty well explained. Here is the actual CDC doc:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/blue_form.pdf

The way it drills down reminds me of the "Five Why" exercise in Six-Sigma training.

In this day and age, I'd say that most people have some sort of pre-existing condition, expecially American fatties (me included.) The bad part is that some people don't even realize that they have a dangerous condition.

 

[notredomer23]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Herd immunity? Sweden model? Sweden had a higher death rate than Denmark, Norway, and Finland, AND its economy did worse. The only alternative to controlling the virus is more deaths and more economic devastation. Choose health. <a href="https://t.co/vhIlh5knMc">pic.twitter.com/vhIlh5knMc</a></p>— Dr. Tom Frieden (@DrTomFrieden) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrTomFrieden/status/1300449586096541700?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 31, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I think it’s too soon to make judgement. They’re one of the only countries in Europe that has not seen a resurgence of COVID. Denmark is averaging over 120 cases a day now compared to 20 last month. Norway was averaging 10 a day and is now at 50. All the while, Sweden’s cases continue to decrease. Additionally, Sweden’s been averaging about a death/day the whole month of August. I don’t think Sweden’s a perfect example especially because they have some unique demographic circumstances, but I think unless you’re going to do a China style lockdown, you have to let the virus go somewhat controlled and let the population develop enough immunity until there’s a vaccine, or else you’re just going be like France, Spain, Germany etc where the virus is starting to surge again.