COVID-19

Sea Turtle

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I'm not expecting a big improvement until next spring. If I had to guess, even though the Flu and COVID are not related (except for being a virus), I expect the demand for flu vaccines to go through the roof this year. Our company provides flu shots every September and they already ordered them back in July to make sure we would get them.

Already got my flu vaccine for free last week.

For three days in a row, U.S. cases have been in the low 40,000s. That is significantly better than the previous weeks. Hopefully the trend continues
 

IrishLax

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Already got my flu vaccine for free last week.

For three days in a row, U.S. cases have been in the low 40,000s. That is significantly better than the previous weeks. Hopefully the trend continues

The current trend, if you draw a straight line on the 7 day moving average, has the virus "beat" in October. That'd be great. Unfortunately, what's more likely to happen is that there are additional flareups in the places that haven't been hit hard yet.

Regardless, the United States is likely to finish with 200k+ deaths and more deaths per capita than most peer countries... while also dragging things out for months longer than those countries. Most European countries have been in single/double digit deaths per day for awhile... the United States is still having four digit death totals each day.
 

tussin

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The current trend, if you draw a straight line on the 7 day moving average, has the virus "beat" in October. That'd be great. Unfortunately, what's more likely to happen is that there are additional flareups in the places that haven't been hit hard yet.

Regardless, the United States is likely to finish with 200k+ deaths and more deaths per capita than most peer countries... while also dragging things out for months longer than those countries. Most European countries have been in single/double digit deaths per day for awhile... the United States is still having four digit death totals each day.

If you take out NY and NJ from the statistics, the US death rates are largely on par (or better) than the harder hit countries in Europe (France, UK, Spain, Italy). I think US response has been pretty good -- especially since it is harder to restrict intrastate travel in the US than travel between countries in the EU (I imagine).
 

Cackalacky2.0

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The current trend, if you draw a straight line on the 7 day moving average, has the virus "beat" in October. That'd be great. Unfortunately, what's more likely to happen is that there are additional flareups in the places that haven't been hit hard yet.

Regardless, the United States is likely to finish with 200k+ deaths and more deaths per capita than most peer countries... while also dragging things out for months longer than those countries. Most European countries have been in single/double digit deaths per day for awhile... the United States is still having four digit death totals each day.

I also don’t want sound conspiracy theorist here but aren’t all numbers sent to and filtered through The WH?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.amp.html

Can we even trust these numbers?

I guess I share this dude's concerns:
Response from IDSA President to New COVID-19 Data Reporting Protocol


Thomas M. File, Jr., M.D., FIDSA — President, Infectious Diseases Society of America

Reports that the administration has established a procedure that would remove the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as a recipient of data on patients hospitalized with COVID-19 are troubling and, if implemented, will undermine our nation’s public health experts. COVID-19 data collection and reporting must be done in a transparent and trustworthy manner and must not be politicized, as these data are the foundation that guide our response to the pandemic. Collecting and reporting public health data is a core function of the CDC, for which the agency has the necessary trained experts and infrastructure. Placing medical data collection outside of the leadership of public health experts could severely weaken the quality and availability of data, add an additional burden to already overwhelmed hospitals and add a new challenge to the U.S. pandemic response. At this critical time when many states are experiencing surges, reliable, comprehensive data are essential to inform the distribution of supplies and treatment. The administration should provide funding to support data collection and should strengthen the role of CDC to collect and report COVID-19 data by race and ethnicity, hospital and ICU capacity, total number of tests and percent positive, hospitalizations and deaths. As infectious diseases physicians, frontline providers and scientists we urge the administration to follow public health expertise in addressing this public health crisis.
https://www.idsociety.org/news--publications-new/articles/2020/response-from-idsa-president-to-new-covid-19-data-reporting-protocol/
 
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IrishLax

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If you take out NY and NJ from the statistics, the US death rates are largely on par (or better) than the harder hit countries in Europe (France, UK, Spain, Italy). I think US response has been pretty good -- especially since it is harder to restrict intrastate travel in the US than travel between countries in the EU (I imagine).

You can say similar things about taking Lombardy's deaths out of Italy's, etc. The United States' comically incongruent response state-to-state has both prolonged the pandemic and will ultimately lead to high deaths per capita. For example, Italy has had less than a hundred deaths per day since May and a controlled new case load since June. This is after a regional outbreak worse than New York. Why? Because of a coordinated national plan. In the United States, we saw initial stabilization give way to flare up and new peaks in multiple locations due to a lack of coherent and consistent restrictions. While peer countries were controlling the virus in June, we saw increasing case numbers into August and the *best case* scenario has the United States 4 months behind European countries on control//return to normal.

No one in the United States federal government even tried to put in restrictions like you saw in Europe to address their initial outbreaks that were worse than New York. Instead, they deferred to states and actively championed those that weren't putting in restrictions (like Florida) while denigrating those that were (like California). Because of that, I certainly wouldn't categorize the response in the United States as "pretty good." It's going to end up with substantially more deaths per capita than Sweden who just kept everything open in a controlled fashion.
 

GowerND11

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If you take out NY and NJ from the statistics, the US death rates are largely on par (or better) than the harder hit countries in Europe (France, UK, Spain, Italy). I think US response has been pretty good -- especially since it is harder to restrict intrastate travel in the US than travel between countries in the EU (I imagine).

I know what you're saying here, but to play devil's advocate here; You could do that with any statistic about anything, and get what you want. "Well take away the second quarter when Julian Love was out hurt and it's a different game."
 

notredomer23

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I know what you're saying here, but to play devil's advocate here; You could do that with any statistic about anything, and get what you want. "Well take away the second quarter when Julian Love was out hurt and it's a different game."

I get what you’re saying, but NY and NJ’s numbers case numbers are at least 10X lower than what they really are. The virus ran unchecked here for all of February and the alarm was really only sounded once it made it in to nursing homes. NY just released antibody data from 1.7MM tests and it indicated 27% of the city had COVID (and is now, likely immune short term and not susceptible to severe infection long term). I have antibodies. I have had 8 friends test positive for antibodies. What further hurts NY and NJ’s numbers is the nursing home policy which has been mentioned in here many a time. Over 19K deaths occurred in nursing homes in the two states. That is 42% of the deaths despite being 0.06% of the population. Other states have done a much better job about controlling COVID in long term care facilities, or totally keeping it out.

I’d love to see what the case totals would like here if we had the capacity to test back in February that we do now. New York would be well over 1.5 MM and NJ prob over a million.
 
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GowerND11

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I get what you’re saying, but NY and NJ’s numbers case numbers are at least 10X lower than what they really are. The virus ran unchecked here for all of February and the alarm was really only sounded once it made it in to nursing homes. NY just released antibody data from 1.7MM tests and it indicated 27% of the city had COVID (and is now, likely immune short term and not susceptible to severe infection long term). I have antibodies. I have had 8 friends test positive for antibodies. What further hurts NY and NJ’s numbers is the nursing home policy which has been mentioned in here many a time. Over 19K deaths occurred in nursing homes in the two states. That is 42% of the deaths despite being 0.06% of the population. Other states have done a much better job about controlling COVID in long term care facilities, or totally keeping it out.

Right, but the point is: it still happened. You can't just omit the data.
 

NorthDakota

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Bismarck, North Dakota will be hosting ESPNU for a football game next weekend. This is hype af. Can't imagine we've ever had a nationally televised high school football game in North Dakota.

COVID is lit af now. Keeping all the urban states from playing...finally our time to shine!
 

ab2cmiller

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I get what you’re saying, but NY and NJ’s numbers case numbers are at least 10X lower than what they really are. The virus ran unchecked here for all of February and the alarm was really only sounded once it made it in to nursing homes. NY just released antibody data from 1.7MM tests and it indicated 27% of the city had COVID (and is now, likely immune short term and not susceptible to severe infection long term). I have antibodies. I have had 8 friends test positive for antibodies. What further hurts NY and NJ’s numbers is the nursing home policy which has been mentioned in here many a time. Over 19K deaths occurred in nursing homes in the two states. That is 42% of the deaths despite being 0.06% of the population. Other states have done a much better job about controlling COVID in long term care facilities, or totally keeping it out.

I’d love to see what the case totals would like here if we had the capacity to test back in February that we do now. New York would be well over 1.5 MM and NJ prob over a million.

Do we really know that percentage. I'm assuming it is worse than that, but we might never now because Cuomo stopped tabulating that data.
 

IrishLax

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I get what you’re saying, but NY and NJ’s numbers case numbers are at least 10X lower than what they really are. The virus ran unchecked here for all of February and the alarm was really only sounded once it made it in to nursing homes. NY just released antibody data from 1.7MM tests and it indicated 27% of the city had COVID (and is now, likely immune short term and not susceptible to severe infection long term). I have antibodies. I have had 8 friends test positive for antibodies. What further hurts NY and NJ’s numbers is the nursing home policy which has been mentioned in here many a time. Over 19K deaths occurred in nursing homes in the two states. That is 42% of the deaths despite being 0.06% of the population. Other states have done a much better job about controlling COVID in long term care facilities, or totally keeping it out.

I’d love to see what the case totals would like here if we had the capacity to test back in February that we do now. New York would be well over 1.5 MM and NJ prob over a million.

Cuomo massively fucked up. Belgium has similar terrible policies. It's shocking to me that Cuomo is taking a victory lap and writing a book (!!!) after doing literally the worst job of anyone in managing COVID. He has the blood of thousands on his hands.
 

SonofOahu

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How do we know its going to be such a bad flu season? Like what do they look at as indicators? Genuinely curious how doctors / epidemiologists / etc. come to their expectations on whether a flu season will be light / heavy.

It's not that the flu season, per se, will be bad, it's that the combination of both could be a disaster. Flu kills a lot of people, and the 2019-2020 flu season had hospitals maxed out. When you layer the flu demand over CoV demand, you could be looking at Statewide crisis capacity.

Using Oahu as an anecdotal warning, there were a few days in January 2020, during peak flu, that almost all hospitals on Oahu were over 100% occupancy and all EDs were on divert. I had never seen that, before.
 

tussin

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Cuomo massively fucked up. Belgium has similar terrible policies. It's shocking to me that Cuomo is taking a victory lap and writing a book (!!!) after doing literally the worst job of anyone in managing COVID. He has the blood of thousands on his hands.

That's why I say the US response hasn't been bad. The whole point of the federal response was to provide the PPE necessary to ensure that case load stays below the healthcare capacity. That was accomplished. Beyond that, I'm not sure what additional federal steps should have been taken and I think most blame falls to incompetent state responses.

All that said, I'm not sure if even the states should have taken more restrictive lockdown steps. They need to balance the lockdown with the economic repercussions, which have been drastic as we all know. Ultimately, I think this thing was destined to just make it's way through the US population. I still don't understand the point of most COVID policy. We should just make sure we protect older at-risk populations and move on with our lives.
 

SonofOahu

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That's why I say the US response hasn't been bad. The whole point of the federal response was to provide the PPE necessary to ensure that case load stays below the healthcare capacity. That was accomplished.

No, no, no. Hospitals are still advised to practice PPE conservation, and we are. The old ways were, honestly, pretty wasteful and overcautious, but it has been a very jarring change pre-CoV and post-CoV. As stated in my previous posts, we are fully expecting crisis-level shortages, again, in Fall/Winter 2020 and into Spring 2021. Fortunately, innovative systems like Battelle Decontamination popped up to offer extended life to n95 respirators, but make no mistake, "we" have solved nothing.

The American response has been a disaster, because that's what Trump chose to pursue. I don't know what your political lean is, but if you're a Fox News consumer, I don't blame you for thinking we've been aces.
 

tussin

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No, no, no. Hospitals are still advised to practice PPE conservation, and we are. The old ways were, honestly, pretty wasteful and overcautious, but it has been a very jarring change pre-CoV and post-CoV. As stated in my previous posts, we are fully expecting crisis-level shortages, again, in Fall/Winter 2020 and into Spring 2021. Fortunately, innovative systems like Battelle Decontamination popped up to offer extended life to n95 respirators, but make no mistake, "we" have solved nothing.

The American response has been a disaster, because that's what Trump chose to pursue. I don't know what your political lean is, but if you're a Fox News consumer, I don't blame you for thinking we've been aces.

I'm conservative but don't own cable... so no clue what Fox is saying. Have any cases died because of a lack of PPE or access to medical equipment? Send me a link to the new story if that's the case because I haven't heard of a single instance.

I'm not saying the early response wasn't a scramble. Of course it was, it was the biggest pandemic in 100 years. But they did get the job done from a healthcare capacity standpoint.
 

TorontoGold

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No, no, no. Hospitals are still advised to practice PPE conservation, and we are. The old ways were, honestly, pretty wasteful and overcautious, but it has been a very jarring change pre-CoV and post-CoV. As stated in my previous posts, we are fully expecting crisis-level shortages, again, in Fall/Winter 2020 and into Spring 2021. Fortunately, innovative systems like Battelle Decontamination popped up to offer extended life to n95 respirators, but make no mistake, "we" have solved nothing.

The American response has been a disaster, because that's what Trump chose to pursue. I don't know what your political lean is, but if you're a Fox News consumer, I don't blame you for thinking we've been aces.

Is there any analysis out there on a decentralized approach to the virus vs a centralized/Feds leading the charge?

Would be interesting to see what the data says.
 

SonofOahu

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Cuomo massively fucked up. Belgium has similar terrible policies. It's shocking to me that Cuomo is taking a victory lap and writing a book (!!!) after doing literally the worst job of anyone in managing COVID. He has the blood of thousands on his hands.

I pointed out where NY/NJ went wrong, but sending patients to the nursing homes is not one of them. The biggest vector threat to any facility are the staff and vendors. Symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission by the doctors, nurses, aides, ancillary staff... vendors like food-stuff delivery, pest control, IT/comms, etc., can kick off infections before you know it.

NY, Seattle, and SF/Bay Area were the first to see CoV in the US; they were the alpha-test. They didn't know what they were facing, so to blame them for all missteps is ridiculous. And we should be thankful that they were the fist to get hit. We should be thankful that this disease started in cities with large research institutions. This disease is still under a year old, and we're learning things at a crazy rate. Can you imagine how bad it would be had this disease silently started in rural US?
 

Cackalacky2.0

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No, no, no. Hospitals are still advised to practice PPE conservation, and we are. The old ways were, honestly, pretty wasteful and overcautious, but it has been a very jarring change pre-CoV and post-CoV. As stated in my previous posts, we are fully expecting crisis-level shortages, again, in Fall/Winter 2020 and into Spring 2021. Fortunately, innovative systems like Battelle Decontamination popped up to offer extended life to n95 respirators, but make no mistake, "we" have solved nothing.

The American response has been a disaster, because that's what Trump chose to pursue. I don't know what your political lean is, but if you're a Fox News consumer, I don't blame you for thinking we've been aces.

I agree, the response was chaotic (an argument could be made it was intentional), it was rife with misinformation, disinformation and political posturing.

Also does anyone recall:
where the Trump Admin told states they had to procure their own PPE and respirators and then the states try to go out and buy what they need but have to outbid the Fed Government trying to buy the same things?

The Surgeon General's wildly changing stance on masks.

Trump's attacking stance on masks

RW attacks on Dr. Faucci for trying to stick to the science

Trump's inability to understand testing results....

In other word's it s been pretty much the opposite of good
 

Cackalacky2.0

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Is there any analysis out there on a decentralized approach to the virus vs a centralized/Feds leading the charge?

Would be interesting to see what the data says.

Pretty much every outbreak before this was handled in a centralized way with the CDC and NIH advising the POTUS and Congress. Until this administration and this pandemic.

I think you can simply look at how disparate and varying each state's responses were and see the lack of a cohesive strategy coordinated by the one entity that could manage it has made it much worse than it needed to be.

My state shut down when there wasnt any cases. Then after a month our governor soft opened the state and people from COVID outbreak areas flooded Myrtle Beach and my city on vacation. 3 weeks later there are large outbreaks which spread across the state. Also these vacationers who weren't sick before became sick while in the state and took it back with them. https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/loudoun-county-myrtle-beach-spike/65-a1f055bf-8035-41a0-8dfa-ca76cf1cf639
 
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TorontoGold

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Pretty much every outbreak before this was handled in a centralized way with the CDC and NIH advising the POTUS and Congress. Until this administration and this pandemic.

I think you can simply look at how disparate and varying each state's responses were and see the lack of a cohesive strategy coordinated by the one entity that could manage it has made it much worse than it needed to be.

Yeah, conceptually it makes no sense to me. I've seen the centralized approach work relatively well up here and the coordination between provinces has been ok too.

Logistically, what benefits do you have to let states run their own response?
 

SonofOahu

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I'm conservative but don't own cable... so no clue what Fox is saying. Have any cases died because of a lack of PPE or access to medical equipment? Send me a link to the new story if that's the case because I haven't heard of a single instance.

I'm not saying the early response wasn't a scramble. Of course it was, it was the biggest pandemic in 100 years. But they did get the job done from a healthcare capacity standpoint.

I'm not sure if you're being obtuse or willfully ignorant, but any casual search on the subject will bring up a multitude of stories:

Google Search 1

Google Search 2

Regarding capacity, you're right. Capacity has been mostly controlled, even during the chaotic times. Some cities had to divert patients to neighboring states, but in times of crisis, you do what you need to do.
 

tussin

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I agree, the response was chaotic (an argument could be made it was intentional), it was rife with misinformation, disinformation and political posturing.

Also does anyone recall:
where the Trump Admin told states they had to procure their own PPE and respirators and then the states try to go out and buy what they need but have to outbid the Fed Government trying to buy the same things?

The Surgeon General's wildly changing stance on masks.

Trump's attacking stance on masks

RW attacks on Dr. Faucci for trying to stick to the science

Trump's inability to understand testing results....

In other word's it s been pretty much the opposite of good

I won't defend Trump's personal leadership. It's...lacking.

But the Monday Morning QBing on masks is honestly absurd:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/world/coronavirus-who-masks-recommendation-trnd/index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/poli...ks-coronavirus-anthony-fauci-cnntv/index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/28/health/coronavirus-us-masks-prevention-trnd/index.html

Just stop. It makes the entire argument seem insincere.
 

Cackalacky2.0

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Yeah, conceptually it makes no sense to me. I've seen the centralized approach work relatively well up here and the coordination between provinces has been ok too.

Logistically, what benefits do you have to let states run their own response?

The obvious benefit is that each locale can tailor their needs to its specific population. In theory this fine.

However, as with many things, a cohesive strategy that may positively provide a solution to a problem in a large country, will also negatively impact individual rights.
 

Cackalacky2.0

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I dont find interviewees in CNN articles very compelling.

From the CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/diy-cloth-face-coverings.html
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0714-americans-to-wear-masks.html

From the WHO
Here's what has changed and what hasn't:

What's hasn't changed:

Those who are sick should wear a mask if they must go out. (Ideally, however, those who are sick should stay at home and those confirmed to have COVID-19 should be isolated and cared for in a health facility and their contacts quarantined).
Home caregivers should wear a mask to protect themselves and prevent further transmission.

Health workers should wear medical masks and use other protective equipment when dealing with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patients.
What's new:

In areas with widespread transmission, the WHO advises medical masks for all people working in clinical areas of a health facility, not only workers dealing with patients with COVID-19. In other words, said the Director General, when doctors are doing a ward round on the cardiology or palliative care units where there are no confirmed COVID-19 patients, they should still wear a medical mask.

In areas with community transmission, the WHO now advises that members of the general public aged 60 and older and those with underlying conditions should wear a medical mask in situations where physical distancing is not possible.

The general public should wear non-medical masks where there is widespread transmission and when physical distancing is difficult, such as on public transport, in shops or in other confined or crowded environments.

Additionally, the WHO has released new guidance on cloth masks, recommending that they consist of at least three layers of different materials: an inner layer being an absorbent material like cotton, a middle layer of non-woven materials such as polypropylene (for the filter) and an outer layer, which is a non absorbent material such as a polyester or a polyester blend.

To develop the guidance, the agency consulted with a range of international experts from different countries and disciplines such as infectious diseases and epidemiology. Their review of a variety of evidence demonstrated some new findings, including that face protections, including respirators or medical masks, can result in a large reduction of transmission of coronaviruses, including COVID-19.

Recommendations, such as those regarding fabric masks, are the result of new research that the WHO commissioned that was not available a month ago. This new evidence, said Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO Technical Lead, has shown that the recommended fabric combination "can actually provide a mechanistic barrier that if someone were infected with COVID-19, you can prevent those droplets from going through and infecting someone."

Officials acknowledged that in some countries with dense populations it is difficult, if not impossible, to maintain social distancing, making masks "very important," stressed Soumya Swaminathan, WHO Chief Scientist, and meaning that offices, transport agencies and schools will need to examine their recommendations closely as countries lift lockdown restrictions. "Every organization, industry and sector needs to think about what are the measures that need to be put in place," said Swaminathan.
Masks are simple and effective. Its disingenuous to say otherwise and it harms no one.

Again the Admin's stance on masks was ridiculous and varied wildly from making fun of people wearing masks, to saying ok maybe you should, then renegs on it. No one is better off for having listened to Trump or the SG on this issue. I listen to my doctor and he says wear a mask.
 
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SonofOahu

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Is there any analysis out there on a decentralized approach to the virus vs a centralized/Feds leading the charge?

Would be interesting to see what the data says.

You're not an American, so I wouldn't expect you to know what FEMA, much less NIMS, is. This is how it's supposed to work:

https://training.fema.gov/nims/

This is more or less how it's functioning at a state level, but command from the top is missing. There has been no centralized planning, logistics, communication, etc. It's been a cluster-fuck. I believe you French Canadians would say Le Cluster Fuch.

When I sit here bitching about how bad it's been, I'm not doing it from the lens of Dem voter, or whatever. I'm bringing my insight as someone who's been watching this develop, from the inside, for the better part of this year. I've watched how states have been played against each other like as if this were the "Hunger Games". My friend co-founded Operation Masks to procure PPE -- I heard, first hand, how the US was commandeering shipments on Chinese tarmacs and redirecting them to where the Trump Admin wanted them to go, even shipments purchased by States themselves.

I dealt directly with that snake-oil salesman, the My Pillow fuck's, mask company. Remember when Trump played up that shyster's company as an n95 solution? That guy had no clue, NO CLUE, how to get the job done. We dealt directly with his second in command, that former NFL guy, and they dicked around for months. I finally told our group to cancel their Agreement and get our deposit back, because that was a useless venture.
 

NorthDakota

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Yeah, conceptually it makes no sense to me. I've seen the centralized approach work relatively well up here and the coordination between provinces has been ok too.

Logistically, what benefits do you have to let states run their own response?

The Feds suck, that's why we let states handle it.
 

tussin

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I agree with everything you just posted. But the point of the articles that I sent was that mask wearing was NOT a medical consensus only a few short months ago. In fact, many experts were specifically saying not to wear a mask. To critique US mask policy when COVID was emerging is disingenuous.
 

Cackalacky2.0

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I agree with everything you just posted. But the point of the articles that I sent was that mask wearing was NOT a medical consensus only a few short months ago. In fact, many experts were specifically saying not to wear a mask. To critique US mask policy when COVID was emerging is disingenuous.

Masks and their use in preventing the spread of public diseases have been in use around the world for a century...lol
TSRAHIRX7ZGAXCPU3WY7PUI6UY.jpg
 
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