COVID-19

[Polish Leppy 22]

SIAP but Herbstreit says he would be surprised if we have football this year. I told my girlfriend she might as well get the straight jacket and have me committed if it happens.

 

[IrishLax]

SIAP but Herbstreit says he would be surprised if we have football this year. I told my girlfriend she might as well get the straight jacket and have me committed if it happens.

I don't believe Herbie.

First of all, for that to happen you're talking about a shutdown stretching into August. I don't think that's feasible, from an economic standpoint.

Second, the max timeline from "oh shit this is out of control" to "alright let's try getting back to normal" to normal seems to be 6 weeks. That's from Italy's shutdown on March 12 to their projected open of mid-to-late April now. The United States has (rather foolishly, IMO) still refused to take drastic measures, which is going to delay the peak to probably 2-3 weeks from now. So even if you start the clock in mid-April for the United States and do a full 6 week lockdown you're looking at June. And that is consistent with what most infectious disease experts are saying about May/June being the target to get back to normal.

I find it highly improbable that this stretches into the fall.

 

[EvilleIrish]

I don't believe Herbie.

First of all, for that to happen you're talking about a shutdown stretching into August. I don't think that's feasible, from an economic standpoint.

Second, the max timeline from "oh shit this is out of control" to "alright let's try getting back to normal" to normal seems to be 6 weeks. That's from Italy's shutdown on March 12 to their projected open of mid-to-late April now. The United States has (rather foolishly, IMO) still refused to take drastic measures, which is going to delay the peak to probably 2-3 weeks from now. So even if you start the clock in mid-April for the United States and do a full 6 week lockdown you're looking at June. And that is consistent with what most infectious disease experts are saying about May/June being the target to get back to normal.

I find it highly improbable that this stretches into the fall.

But at what point do we worry about the health of the players? No way these guys are even in close to playing shape at this point.

 

[phork]

I don't believe Herbie.

First of all, for that to happen you're talking about a shutdown stretching into August. I don't think that's feasible, from an economic standpoint.

Second, the max timeline from "oh shit this is out of control" to "alright let's try getting back to normal" to normal seems to be 6 weeks. That's from Italy's shutdown on March 12 to their projected open of mid-to-late April now. The United States has (rather foolishly, IMO) still refused to take drastic measures, which is going to delay the peak to probably 2-3 weeks from now. So even if you start the clock in mid-April for the United States and do a full 6 week lockdown you're looking at June. And that is consistent with what most infectious disease experts are saying about May/June being the target to get back to normal.

I find it highly improbable that this stretches into the fall.

Italy is far from the out of the woods. They are clipping 1k people daily...

 

[Legacy]

Not that this is specifically towards your post, but yours was the last one that actually dealt with the virus:

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1243696001958981632?s=20

But, to the study you linked:



That's...

That's not a real helpful study.

For example, the flu, for people who appear asymptomatic before actually "feeling" the flu but can still spread:



Maybe I misread the report, rather the synopsis, but the flu is worse in that regard by a rather large margin.

Edit: In fairness, I looked for up to date studies on shedding of COVID-19, but I could not find any that were new, nor had more than a handful of participants. Even in older reports, they are based on statistics based on Chinese numbers that are nearly impossible to verify.

We'll (unfortunately) have a lot more data on how this virus behaves months from now. 10% of asymptomatic transmission seems like a lot to me in addition to its other characteristics. The transmissiblity seems to be higher than influenza with initial reports of a reproductive rate (Ro) of about 2 and influenza of 1918 flu of 1.8. I thought I saw something on amount of viral loads, but cannot find it. It seems more virulent because of the cells it targets and subsequent cardiopulmonary impacts.

A couple of articles concerning the study we noted:
Serial Interval of COVID-19 among Publicly Reported Confirmed Case
COVID-19: Study estimates rate of ‘silent transmission’

A Japanese study on the serial interval:
Short time between serial COVID-19 cases may hinder containment

A study in Lancet:
Secondary attack rate and superspreading events for SARS-CoV-2 and

one from China in NEJM:
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia

 

[IrishLax]

Italy is far from the out of the woods. They are clipping 1k people daily...

Which is why their projected reopening is mid-to-late April. Originally they were targeting early April and stated recently they're going to miss that mark.

 

[IrishLax]

But at what point do we worry about the health of the players? No way these guys are even in close to playing shape at this point.

I think BK said something like you need 6 weeks before the season start to be doing S&C. Don't have the exact quote in front of me, but he made comments yesterday.

 

[EvilleIrish]

I think BK said something like you need 6 weeks before the season start to be doing S&C. Don't have the exact quote in front of me, but he made comments yesterday.

Yeah I saw that quote. I never thought it would be possible but I think it's a real possibility that we don't get a normal season.

 

[Blazers46]

I think BK said something like you need 6 weeks before the season start to be doing S&C. Don't have the exact quote in front of me, but he made comments yesterday.

I think we will see a lot of hamstring injuries across the board. In my experience with sports this is the one injury that plagues athletes when there is a layoff of any kind.

 

[Irishize]

From 2013...

https://www.wired.com/2013/10/bats-next-sars-pandemic/


The German scientist explains today in a tweet thread:


@kakape
“Many people now pointing to old articles (incl. one from me) saying: It’s all there. And others saying: No-one could have predicted #covid19. So I just want to be very clear about what I personally as a journalist covering this beat for years expected and didn‘t expect. A thread“


https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1243507635145629699?s=21

 

[Legacy]

You can manufacture ventilators and produce n95 masks. How do you replace health care workers? The EMT/paramedic that is in close proximity in an enclosed ambulance space and may intubate. The ER physicians or intensivist and nurses intubating patient after patient knowing COVID-19 sprays up to six feet and the aerosol stays in the air as they position themselves a foot away. Nurses, respiratory therapists, aides who are in proximity for extended hours and PPE is running low. You cannot quarantine health care workers due to "presumed exposure".

Covid-19 hits doctors, nurses and EMTs, threatening health system

I read that prior to this pandemic, the V.A. system was short 20,000. nurses. The V.A. Administration has changed their hiring process to speed it up - as have many other local public and private hospitals. All are calling on retired nurses to volunteer in tens of thousands. Most states have Medical Relief Corps for disasters, which are being used. The military will be helping and national guards are being mobilized.
Latest Guard update: More than 12,300 troops mobilized for COVID-19 response (Military Times)

The Army Corps of Engineers has two or three weeks to get thousands of new hospital beds up and running

After Trump’s order, DoD reviewing how many Guard, Reserve troops to bring back for COVID-19 fight

Field hospital heads to Manhattan, as Fort Campbell prepares for potential outbreak

Surging Health Care Worker Quarantines Raise Concerns As Coronavirus Spreads

 

[phork]

Which is why their projected reopening is mid-to-late April. Originally they were targeting early April and stated recently they're going to miss that mark.

Its going to be longer than that. This is going to be months at the very least because people are fucking stupid and don't follow the measures set forth. My worry is the US because I have family there and because 'Murica and no damn doctor gonna tell us how to live our life..

 

[Circa]

Its going to be longer than that. This is going to be months at the very least because people are fucking stupid and don't follow the measures set forth. My worry is the US because I have family there and because 'Murica and no damn doctor gonna tell us how to live our life..

Tell me why the Flu had no response year after year like this. We can't stop the inevitable... We keep moving forward.

 

[IrishLax]

Its going to be longer than that. This is going to be months at the very least because people are fucking stupid and don't follow the measures set forth. My worry is the US because I have family there and because 'Murica and no damn doctor gonna tell us how to live our life..

I'm confused, what basis do you have for saying that the revised Italy estimate they put out yesterday isn't accurate? Or are you saying that the United States is going to track longer than Italy? That's probable, which is why I took 6 weeks from projected "peak" which would be 2+ months from now. That's how you get June. There's not any basis right now for thinking that this will drag out longer than June even with the piss poor handling of the virus so far in the United States.

 

[IrishLax]

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...onavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive -- well, if this is accurate we could all be kinda screwed.

 

[GrangerIrish24]

I’m at the point now where I don’t know what’s real and what’s not. For every news story, there is a counter. For the majority of graphs and number, people are proving their numbers are wrong. And the people that are screaming the loudest are basing their knowledge on second or third hand info. This is insane.

 

[SonofOahu]

I think I read that in Madrid their National Guard took over an ice rink to use as a temporary morgue.

Yes, I saw that, too. Hawaii would probably just stick with the refer containers because we have an almost endless supply of them due to the nature of our shipping industry. Also, those containers are mobile and easier to clean.

 

[phork]

Tell me why the Flu had no response year after year like this. We can't stop the inevitable... We keep moving forward.

Because this isn't the flu man... And unfortunately people still aren't getting their flu shots..

 

[SonofOahu]

Not going to go down the political rabbit hole too far, but disagree with paragraph one. I've read way too much (strictly factual and scientific) on this situation globally, and all the different inputs/outputs to and from, and responses by country. A deep look at the testing debacle is likely easiest at this point, but the facts point to very specific issues that have zero to do with the current administration. In addition, the so called models of response thus far have been either authoritarian in nature, or countries who have close partnership/reliance on the private sector and less reliance on bodies like the FDA. And lastly, the issues with model and funding at hospitals in general here in the US, precedes this administration, and is a very complex discussion that includes far more than just federal funding.

Hope you are doing well my friend. Most important, be safe. Prayers for you.

Rogan talked about the role of the president in one of his recent podcasts. He said that the president's main job during a time of crisis is to provide some sort of measured guidance. There has been none of that, from our dear leader. He called this a hoax; quite possibly the worst thing one can do when trying to control public fear and to gain buy-in for isolation measures. That ship has sailed, and it is what it is.

I hope that you and your fam stay safe, too, my friend. I have a nice supply of whiskey to see me through this storm. Remember, 120+ proof should be enough to kill the virus!

 

[SonofOahu]

This is what real leadership looks like

I've watched this from the beginning, as my friend is one of the founding members of this group. My other friend is the DOH director interviewed. We've been working on getting all of Hawaii's needs addressed, locally. Operation Masks is also working with CA, WA, NY, and other hot spots. I'm really proud to see this effort just blow up, literally overnight.

 

[Woneone]

We'll (unfortunately) have a lot more data on how this virus behaves months from now. 10% of asymptomatic transmission seems like a lot to me in addition to its other characteristics. The transmissiblity seems to be higher than influenza with initial reports of a reproductive rate (Ro) of about 2 and influenza of 1918 flu of 1.8. I thought I saw something on amount of viral loads, but cannot find it. It seems more virulent because of the cells it targets and subsequent cardiopulmonary impacts.

A couple of articles concerning the study we noted:
Serial Interval of COVID-19 among Publicly Reported Confirmed Case
COVID-19: Study estimates rate of ‘silent transmission’

A Japanese study on the serial interval:
Short time between serial COVID-19 cases may hinder containment

A study in Lancet:
Secondary attack rate and superspreading events for SARS-CoV-2 and

one from China in NEJM:
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia

Don't disagree with anything you've said. I read some of the reports you posted, and as you mentioned, they are all derivatives of the same studies, which seem flawed in a multitude of ways. It's a weird situation, because every week we don't just try to get in front of treatment of the virus, we have to learn more about it.

These concepts are obviously way above my pay grade. I don't understand the viral load vs spreading and all that Jazz.

I'm sure we'll pull together, get through it through sheer will power, and be more prepared for it.

Then, we'll forget all those lessons, forget all the preparation needed, the painful bureaucracy that held up innovation, and be in the same boat when the next one hits.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Rogan talked about the role of the president in one of his recent podcasts. He said that the president's main job during a time of crisis is to provide some sort of measured guidance. There has been none of that, from our dear leader. He called this a hoax; quite possibly the worst thing one can do when trying to control public fear and to gain buy-in for isolation measures. That ship has sailed, and it is what it is.

I hope that you and your fam stay safe, too, my friend. I have a nice supply of whiskey to see me through this storm. Remember, 120+ proof should be enough to kill the virus!

A week ago Trump absolutely blew a chance to provide that guidance. A reporter asked him a "softball" question. What do you say to people who are scared? Trump blew an easy opportunity to communicate and connect with the American people. Did he say anything that would reassure the public?. No, he said "You are a terrible reporter". How in the hell are we supposed to react given that answer?

 

[SonofOahu]

To our Clinical Partners

To our Clinical Partners

There are two methods currently being heavily researched for extending the use of n95 respirators as well as the basic procedural masks: UV treatment and Autoclave sterilization. We have been researching the use of both methods, as our UV lamp vendor has graciously provided us with one of those high-powered UV machines. Here are two links to the current research:

Nebraska UV: https://www.nebraskamed.com/sites/default/files/documents/covid-19/n-95-decon-process.pdf

Stanford: http://web.stanford.edu/group/prakash-lab/cgi-bin/labsite/publications/

If you have any questions or if you want to discuss this further, please contact me via PM.

 

[Woneone]

A week ago Trump absolutely blew a chance to provide that guidance. A reporter asked him a "softball" question. What do you say to people who are scared? Trump blew an easy opportunity to communicate and connect with the American people. Did he say anything that would reassure the public?. No, he said "You are a terrible reporter". How in the hell are we supposed to react given that answer?

Just Google "Trump False Hope". I'm not a fan of the guy, but when he does try to answer questions like that, he gets killed. He ignores them, he gets killed.

I'm not saying he's doing a good job, but the view of how he is handling does not seem to be based on actual actions, but preconceived notions.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Just Google "Trump False Hope". I'm not a fan of the guy, but when he does try to answer questions like that, he gets killed. He ignores them, he gets killed.

I'm not saying he's doing a good job, but the view of how he is handling does not seem to be based on actual actions, but preconceived notions.

I get that Trump could be criticized regardless of how he answers, but I can't think of a worse response than, "You are a terrible reporter".

 

[SonofOahu]

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...onavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive -- well, if this is accurate we could all be kinda screwed.

I’m at the point now where I don’t know what’s real and what’s not. For every news story, there is a counter. For the majority of graphs and number, people are proving their numbers are wrong. And the people that are screaming the loudest are basing their knowledge on second or third hand info. This is insane.

FWIW, I don't put much trust in the Chinese figures. Most of what they put out is bunk. However, the SARS-Cov2 virus is not as easy to transmit as, say, TB or Norovirus. Our entire manangement team was in a meeting with a confirmed positive (I know, why the fuck would we do that, right? It was a PPE demonstration, we all had to be there). So far no one else has been a confirmed positive.

I think the problem is inaccurate testing. The "repeats" could be from false negatives or, way worse, false positives from the get go. Either that or like chicken pox, if you don't get fully sick the first time, you don't build up enough immunity and get sick a second time.

To clarify: we were in the meeting BEFORE the confirmed positive started to feel ill. Once the person got tested and confirmed, then we were like: Hmmm... not the best idea to hold the in-person training, eh?

 

[Bluto]

FWIW, I don't put much trust in the Chinese figures. Most of what they put out is bunk. However, the SARS-Cov2 virus is not as easy to transmit as, say, TB or Norovirus. Our entire manangement team was in a meeting with a confirmed positive (I know, why the fuck would we do that, right? It was a PPE demonstration, we all had to be there). So far no one else has been a confirmed positive.

I think the problem is inaccurate testing. The "repeats" could be from false negatives or, way worse, false positives from the get go. Either that or like chicken pox, if you don't get fully sick the first time, you don't build up enough immunity and get sick a second time.

To clarify: we were in the meeting BEFORE the confirmed positive started to feel ill. Once the person got tested and confirmed, then we were like: Hmmm... not the best idea to hold the in-person training, eh?

Sorry to hear about all that you are dealing with.

Have you heard or seen anything that might correlate vaping with increased risk?

 

[NorthDakota]

A week ago Trump absolutely blew a chance to provide that guidance. A reporter asked him a "softball" question. What do you say to people who are scared? Trump blew an easy opportunity to communicate and connect with the American people. Did he say anything that would reassure the public?. No, he said "You are a terrible reporter". How in the hell are we supposed to react given that answer?

That guy is a joke. Watch the lead up.

Don's approval is at an all-time high right now so it seems like it probably didnt hurt him in any meaningful way.

 

[GrangerIrish24]

Sorry to hear about all that you are dealing with.

Have you heard or seen anything that might correlate vaping with increased risk?

I’ve read it’s bad if you’re a smoke but some apparently nicotine has some positive effects. I’ll link the article if I can find it.

 

[Bluto]

I’ve read it’s bad if you’re a smoke but some apparently nicotine has some positive effects. I’ll link the article if I can find it.

Thanks.