CHICAGO – We are trending toward a most interesting College Football Playoff debate: Notre Dame or the Big 12 champion?
Now, that debate presumes three things: Clemson wins out, Alabama wins out and the Big Ten produces an undefeated champion – either Ohio State or Iowa. If those things all happen, the fourth position in the bracket could well be the Fighting Irish vs. the conference the playoff rejected last year.
It also could be the first spot decided. The Big 12’s prime contenders (Oklahoma State and Oklahoma) and Notre Dame will all be finished playing Nov. 28, while the other top teams will have a championship game to contest the next weekend.
For now, Notre Dame holds the coveted fourth position in the CFP selection committee rankings released Tuesday night. Right behind them is Iowa, which very likely will fight it out with the Big Ten East Division winner (Ohio State?) for a spot in the bracket – if both are undefeated before that league championship game. And then comes the state of Oklahoma.
Unbeaten Oklahoma State is No. 6, having moved up two spots because two teams ahead of it and two behind it all lost last week. And after the Cowboys comes Oklahoma, which vaulted five spots after beating Baylor in Waco.
These are the two most likely to vie with Notre Dame for a potential fourth spot. If the Cowboys win out and finish 12-0 – taking down TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma in the process – they could be tough to deny. If the Sooners win out, it’s a battle royale of perception, prestige and P.R. between a pair of blueblood programs.
“If everyone holds serve in the top three, it’s going to be a huge debate [between Notre Dame and the Big 12],” ESPN lead analyst Kirk Herbstreit told me at the United Center on Tuesday night. “If Oklahoma State wins out, they may go by [the Fighting Irish]. If it’s Oklahoma, who to me looked as good as anybody last week, that’ll become the debate.”
Notre Dame would have a couple of strong arguments to make if it comes down to that. First is comparative scores against like opponents: The Irish destroyed Texas 38-3 to start the season, and the Longhorns shocked the Sooners in Dallas in early October. That also gives Notre Dame the edge when it comes to comparing losses: The Irish’s two-point road loss to No. 1 Clemson is a lot better than a neutral-site defeat at the hands of a six-loss team.
But here’s what else could come into play: Who is playing best down the stretch?
If you want to know why that will be more important in football than in the basketball NCAA tournament – which threw out a team’s record over the last 10 games as a criterion years ago – look no further than the first playoff. Way back in 2014. Ohio State was playing great in November and December, beating Michigan State in East Lansing and destroying Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. The committee rewarded the Buckeyes for that, and they justified their selection by winning the whole thing.
If it worked last year, don’t be surprised if it’s a major factor this year.
“It’s not March Madness,” Herbstreit said. “It’s not just résumé and metrics. It’s who is playing the best ball at the right time. Those things matter to me.
“I look at how they’re playing, who’s trending, who’s the hot team. Who is like Ohio State last year? I look at who do you not want to play: that Oklahoma team I saw the other night, that was a really good team.”
The Sooners were indeed very good in beating Baylor on the road – but they also faced the Bears’ backup quarterback, freshman Jarrett Stidham, making his second career start. They could get a second stroke of good fortune this week if TCU star quarterback Trevone Boykin cannot play because of injury. Oklahoma could face another freshman, Forest Sawyer, who completed just one pass last Saturday against Kansas – but it was 42 yards for a touchdown.
If it plays out that way for Oklahoma, Notre Dame would theoretically have another argument on its side. But the Sooners (or Cowboys) would likely be the hotter team if they survive the November round-robin of Big 12 showdown games.
However, not all hot teams are loved equally. Take North Carolina, for instance.
The Tar Heels just smashed Duke and Miami by a combined 125-52 and have won nine straight since losing their opener. Yet they’ve advanced only to 17th in the CFP rankings. Perhaps that’s because the one loss was a really bad one, to seven-loss South Carolina, and perhaps because Carolina played two FCS teams, something no Power 5 school should do. Either way, the 9-1, hot-as-blazes Heels have a lot of clutter to get through if they want to have any shot at the playoff.
The more likely scenario is a Notre Dame-Big 12 duel. And if it comes down to Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma, with 1,748 victories and 16 national titles between them, that would be pretty fascinating.
