College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #8...)

[NCND]

uhhh boy... Here we go.

Referencing a made up ESPN metric.. So "surprised" coming from a Bama/SEC fan.

 

[koonja]

We need baylor to jail sex Ok St this week so even if oklahoma wins out, thar last game doesn't look as good as us beating stanford

 

[irishfan]

Alabama has 7 wins against teams in the top 40 FPI. That's more than any other team. And they will have to beat Florida to win the SEC CG (given they win the IB). Your argument is ridiculous.

Agreed. And the Bama schedule is tough enough that you guys can go 12-1 and finish ahead of 13-0 Clemson. I would guess that the #1 spot (if Bama goes 12-1 and Clemson goes 13-0) will be decided by the Florida/FSU winner for SOS purposes.

Or OSU could steamroll MSU, Michigan, Iowa and be #1.

But, I agree there is really no argument with Bama's schedule. Not as top-heavy as in other years, but pretty much as tough as always.

 

[irishfan]

We need baylor to jail sex Ok St this week so even if oklahoma wins out, thar last game doesn't look as good as us beating stanford

Agreed. This is the biggest game of the week for us outside of our own. Absolutely need Baylor to win.

 

[GATTACA!]

Agreed. And the Bama schedule is tough enough that you guys can go 12-1 and finish ahead of 13-0 Clemson. I would guess that the #1 spot (if Bama goes 12-1 and Clemson goes 13-0) will be decided by the Florida/FSU winner for SOS purposes.

Or OSU could steamroll MSU, Michigan, Iowa and be #1.

But, I agree there is really no argument with Bama's schedule. Not as top-heavy as in other years, but pretty much as tough as always.

I disagree. I think if the final four ends up being Alabama, OSU, ND, and Clemson in some order I don't see how the committee can pass up the opportunity of ND/Clemson OSU/Bama rematches. I guess OSU/Clemson and ND/Bama would also be rematches but the former set is more recent.

If Bama jumped Clemson then they would want ND to jump OSU which i don't see any way of them doing. So IMO the top four probably stays the way it is.

 

[yankeehater]

Everyone seems to assume Clemson will win out. The committee is currently showing no respect to North Carolina. What happens if NC wins out which means they would have beaten Clemson in the ACC Championship?

 

[IrishLax]

Most important things to ND making the playoff, in order of importance:
1. Win out.
2. Oklahoma State loses.
3. Navy wins out.
4. USC wins out and plays in PAC12 championship game against Stanford.

If all of that happens, ND is probably in. If any of those 4 miss... things get dicey and ND really might need some help.

 

[gkIrish]

Most important things to ND making the playoff, in order of importance:
1. Win out.
2. Oklahoma State loses.
3. Navy wins out.
4. USC wins out and plays in PAC12 championship game against Stanford.

If all of that happens, ND is probably in. If any of those 4 miss... things get dicey and ND really might need some help.

Don't see both 3 and 4 happening. But I don't think both Stanford and USC need to be in the championship game. One of them just needs to win it.

 

[wizards8507]

I disagree. I think if the final four ends up being Alabama, OSU, ND, and Clemson in some order I don't see how the committee can pass up the opportunity of ND/Clemson OSU/Bama rematches. I guess OSU/Clemson and ND/Bama would also be rematches but the former set is more recent.

If Bama jumped Clemson then they would want ND to jump OSU which i don't see any way of them doing. So IMO the top four probably stays the way it is.

I disagree. I think they avoid the rematch if they can help it.

 

[irishfan]

Most important things to ND making the playoff, in order of importance:
1. Win out.
2. Oklahoma State loses.
3. Navy wins out.
4. USC wins out and plays in PAC12 championship game against Stanford.

If all of that happens, ND is probably in. If any of those 4 miss... things get dicey and ND really might need some help.

Don't see both 3 and 4 happening. But I don't think both Stanford and USC need to be in the championship game. One of them just needs to win it.

If we get lucky and OU finishes 10-2, OK State finishes 11-1, and Baylor finishes 11-1....do you guys (or anyone else) think that there is any way that ND finishes outside the top 4? Regardless of how Navy/USC/Stanford/Temple finish the year? I think at that point, only a scenario with a 12-1 UNC/Clemson or a 13-0 Iowa and 12-1 Ohio State could give us any issue.

 

[IrishMoore1]

Most important things to ND making the playoff, in order of importance:
1. Win out.
2. Oklahoma State loses.
3. Navy wins out.
4. USC wins out and plays in PAC12 championship game against Stanford.

If all of that happens, ND is probably in. If any of those 4 miss... things get dicey and ND really might need some help.

I think the most important items on that list are 1 and 2. If OSU wins out, ND will be left out. An 11-1 Oklahoma doesn't get in over ND with that bad loss to Texas.

 

[wizards8507]

If we get lucky and OU finishes 10-2, OK State finishes 11-1, and Baylor finishes 11-1....do you guys (or anyone else) think that there is any way that ND finishes outside the top 4? Regardless of how Navy/USC/Stanford/Temple finish the year? I think at that point, only a scenario with a 12-1 UNC/Clemson or a 13-0 Iowa and 12-1 Ohio State could give us any issue.

Agreed. 11-1 Oklahoma is the scenario that makes me the most nervous.

 

[Irish YJ]

Clemson
B10 Champ (tOSU/MSU/Iowa)
SEC Champ (UF/Bama)
ND/OK St

That's how it's going to play out. If OK St wins out, we get jumped. There is no way OK they will jump us. If OK St loses, we control our own destiny.

/thread

I still believe OSU will beat MSt, then lose to scUM. Then OSU jail sexes Iowa.

Referencing a made up ESPN metric.. So "surprised" coming from a Bama/SEC fan.

SMH... that's why like 99% of the board would give their pinky toe not to play Bama in the first round. Eye test, record, SOS, they have it. You don't have to be a homer to see that. Yes you can question some FCS scheduling, but it's funny to not think them a top 4 team given the alternatives. I do not believe they should be #1, but they are definitely in the top 4.

Don't see both 3 and 4 happening. But I don't think both Stanford and USC need to be in the championship game. One of them just needs to win it.

Agree. I do think both will happen though.

 

[koonja]

If we get lucky and OU finishes 10-2, OK State finishes 11-1, and Baylor finishes 11-1....do you guys (or anyone else) think that there is any way that ND finishes outside the top 4? Regardless of how Navy/USC/Stanford/Temple finish the year? I think at that point, only a scenario with a 12-1 UNC/Clemson or a 13-0 Iowa and 12-1 Ohio State could give us any issue.

No because I don't think the Big 10 gets 2 teams in. I think as soon as OSU/IOWA lose they're automatically out.

 

[koonja]

I don't think I want Boykin to play for TCU this week. If he doesn't, TCU will get beat for sure and drop out of the top 25 most likely, and that'll be 2 major astericks in OK's biggest wins playing 2nd string QBs with next to no experience.

The reason I don't want Boykin to play is because OK is playing for a lot more and I think they win if Boykin plays or doesn't play.

 

[gkIrish]

If we get lucky and OU finishes 10-2, OK State finishes 11-1, and Baylor finishes 11-1....do you guys (or anyone else) think that there is any way that ND finishes outside the top 4? Regardless of how Navy/USC/Stanford/Temple finish the year? I think at that point, only a scenario with a 12-1 UNC/Clemson or a 13-0 Iowa and 12-1 Ohio State could give us any issue.

No way ND is left out in your scenario

90% sure OK State gets in at 12 0

10 1 Oklahoma beating 11 0 Oklahoma State gives Oklahoma 50/50 shot imo

 

[johnnycando]

No way ND is left out in your scenario

90% sure OK State gets in at 12 0

10 1 Oklahoma beating 11 0 Oklahoma State gives Oklahoma 50/50 shot imo

I'm looking so much forward to you eating crow homey.

Minus Tabasco.

You have been wrong for 3 weeks.

Minimum two.

 

[phork]

I still believe OSU will beat MSt, then lose to scUM. Then OSU jail sexes Iowa.



SMH... that's why like 99% of the board would give their pinky toe not to play Bama in the first round. Eye test, record, SOS, they have it. You don't have to be a homer to see that. Yes you can question some FCS scheduling, but it's funny to not think them a top 4 team given the alternatives. I do not believe they should be #1, but they are definitely in the top 4.



Agree. I do think both will happen though.

If OSU beats MSU then loses to UM, UM is in the BIG CG. Most UM fans seem to think that a win vs OSU and Iowa would put the first 2 loss team into the playoffs.

Simple logic at work here. The committee sees NDs loss as really .990 of a win. Win out and your in dependent on OKSt losing. OU will not pass ND and Iowa only jumps in if they beat OSU which would eliminate OSU. Bonus round is teams on our schedule keep winning as noted above (Looking at you Navy, USC, Stanford, Pitt, Texas, Temple), and our 2 PAC 12 opponents play in a PAC12 CG.

 

[IrishinSyria]

I'm looking so much forward to you eating crow homey.

Minus Tabasco.

You have been wrong for 3 weeks.

Minimum two.

How can he possibly be wrong? 50/50 means both outcomes are equally likely. It's a binary problem, one or the other is going to happen (assuming we get to that point) but all he's saying is there's no good way to know what the result will be going in to it.

 

[johnnycando]

How can he possibly be wrong? 50/50 means both outcomes are equally likely. It's a binary problem, one or the other is going to happen (assuming we get to that point) but all he's saying is there's no good way to know what the result will be going in to it.

Read the last 3 weeks.

That's how?

No 180 here btw home slice.

 

[irishfan]

I'm looking so much forward to you eating crow homey.

Minus Tabasco.

You have been wrong for 3 weeks.

Minimum two.

He hasn't been wrong. The entire ND/OU argument centers around both finishing 11-1 wish hasn't happened yet. I don't think anyone anticipated ND being jumped by OU or OK State until the final week.

 

[STLcardz-NDirish]

-Alabama is #2 because they've played a tough schedule. Not based on the eye test in my opinion anyway because outside of the last 2 weeks they haven't really impressed me all season. That loss to Ole Miss looks more and more atrocious as the weeks wear on.

I disagree. If you watch Alabama, they pass the eye test. Calvin Ridley and derrick Henry are next level. Alabama clearly dominates the offensive and Defensive lines as well. Their size/speed ratio on defense is very scary. A lot of big boys moving at speeds they shouldn't. Their weakness is their turnover prone QB.

 

[irishfan]

If OSU beats MSU then loses to UM, UM is in the BIG CG. Most UM fans seem to think that a win vs OSU and Iowa would put the first 2 loss team into the playoffs.

Simple logic at work here. The committee sees NDs loss as really .990 of a win. Win out and your in dependent on OKSt losing. OU will not pass ND and Iowa only jumps in if they beat OSU which would eliminate OSU. Bonus round is teams on our schedule keep winning as noted above (Looking at you Navy, USC, Stanford, Pitt, Texas, Temple), and our 2 PAC 12 opponents play in a PAC12 CG.

I think if Michigan goes 11-2, they have a great shot at jumping into the top-4. I'd really only see 13-0 Clemson, 12-1 Bama, 11-1 ND and maybe a Big-12 team (only if it's 12-0 OSU or 11-1 OU) finishing ahead of Michigan in that scenario.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Read the last 3 weeks.

That's how?

No 180 here btw home slice.

Yeah, I've never seen him say anything more than "there's a chance that" or "this is the argument for...". All GK is arguing is that the outcome is in doubt and will continue to be so until the committee makes their selection. It's not a slam dunk for us. That doesn't mean we won't get in- just that we might not. There's literally no way to make him eat crow on that unless Jeff Long comes out and says something to the effect of "we never even considered putting any 11-1 team outside bama over ND".

 

[Legacy]

Alabama has 7 wins against teams in the top 40 FPI. That's more than any other team. And they will have to beat Florida to win the SEC CG (given they win the IB). Your argument is ridiculous.

Not really. I won't argue something so far fetched. It's a waste of my time.

Dismissive with an overwhelming bouquet of superiority. Vintage. Put the cork back in it for further aging, though I am not sure the taste will improve.

 

[Irish YJ]

If OSU beats MSU then loses to UM, UM is in the BIG CG. Most UM fans seem to think that a win vs OSU and Iowa would put the first 2 loss team into the playoffs.

Simple logic at work here. The committee sees NDs loss as really .990 of a win. Win out and your in dependent on OKSt losing. OU will not pass ND and Iowa only jumps in if they beat OSU which would eliminate OSU. Bonus round is teams on our schedule keep winning as noted above (Looking at you Navy, USC, Stanford, Pitt, Texas, Temple), and our 2 PAC 12 opponents play in a PAC12 CG.

I also think UM loses to PSU this weekend . Sorry, should have said that.

The rest, pretty similar to what I said earlier.

 

[Irish YJ]

Dismissive with an overwhelming bouquet of superiority. Vintage. Put the cork back in it for further aging, though I am not sure the taste will improve.

Dismissive like your post in the SEC open thread? Don't get me wrong, I agree with most of your SEC logic, but don't be the pot.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Standing pat


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#FREEPAT

 

[Green Mountains]

What seems lost in the Big 12 discussion is that TCU likely drops out of the top 25 in the polls with another loss (three losses in a row tends to that). TCU has OU then Baylor. That smells like a 4 loss team to me. Although I hope they rise up to beat either, it appears unlikely to me.

If TCU is out of the top 25, the over strength of schedule of OU and OkSU take a hit.

 

[Irish#1]

If we are SOLIDLY #4, and if #5 Iowa is "Better" than either of the OKs, how are we in trouble in the committee's view? That sounds like the committee rates us SIGNIFICANTLY better than the OKs.

Thank goodness that the committee is composed of football people of many years experience and not eye-test players [Pollack, Galloway, even Herbstreit] or IE pessimists. These people are rewarding body-of-work and not just the last game.

This. We do control our own destiny. The committee has made two statements that they really like what ND has done. If we win out we're in regardless of what anyone else does.