College Football Playoff Expansion?

Some Irish Bloke

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What is the real risk here? This is a serious, non-snark question. You believe Williams earnings will no longer be life changing? Or you believe he'll go from a top 15 lock to out of the 3rd rd? What is the serious implication of a bad injury? Even Jaylon, who had one of the most horrific injuries fell from a top 15 to early 2nd round. Then managed to stack much more cash on top of it.

Are there examples of players being injured in bowl games that drastically altered their financial future? I'm interested in any data you have.

All good man, didn't take it as snarky. Jaylon was a top 5 lock so he's even more of a serious example than Williams will potentially be this yaer.

Apologize for the long post but bear with me: there's a big difference:

The first overall pick last year, Lawrence, cashed in on a $37M deal, fully guaranteed.

Joe Tryon went No. 32: he signed an $11.2M deal with $8.2M guaranteed. You're talking about a $26M overall difference, with $29M (!) difference in guaranteed money if Tryon suffered a career ending injury early in his career.

For argument's stake, I'll split the difference between you saying top 15 and me saying top 5, and let's assume Jaylon stayed healthy and went No. 10.

Last year, No 10. overall was DaVonta Smith, who inked a $20.2M, fully guaranteed. Elijah Moore was drafted 34th overall, in the same spot Jaylon was. He inked a $9M contract, $6M guaranteed. That's a difference of $11M in total contract and $14M in guaranteed cash. ($18M / $21M compared to Lawrence).

Of course, any of these guys who get drafted are making "life changing" money compared to most anyone. There's a stark difference between making $80 or 90k vs. $400k playing on a practice squad. But to act like the difference between $5M or $30M isn't huge for these guys is pretty far fetched IMO.

KH is one of those guys who is a top 10 lock, looking at a $20-25M difference in contract value and guaranteed money, and he had already sustained a pretty serious injury against UNC. Williams is a little more head scratching given he's likely a mid-round grade, but let's not act like Running Backs aren't one of the most injury prone positions in all of sports.

And, again, if the coaches and teammates don't have sour grapes over these guys going, why should the fans? What do players owe us fans that they don't owe their teammates and coaches?

EDIT: you can also argue that Jaylon was never the same football player after the injury; he's become quite the journeyman, unfortunately.
 
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Bishop2b5

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Forced parity is mickey mouse. Dynasties give the sport more eyeballs. This is why the NHL will be a smalltime league because they've insisted on parity for the sake of parity. Further, the NBA playoffs seem like they're doing just fine even if the majority of first round series are blowouts (completely anecdotal evidence on my part).

Why hold the Masters and invite that many people if we know that only really only 30-40 guys have a shot at winning it, because the story of an unknown making some noise is great for the sport.

And I don't really disagree with you. Dynasties do have their attraction. Purists can appreciate what Saban's done at my school, and there is even an attraction for the haters that want to see anyone beat us. I also agree that complete parity is BORING to the nth degree. I'm looking for something somewhere in between... maybe closer to dynasty than complete parity. As much as I love Bama and all the success we've had and expect to continue having under Saban, I totally get the frustration from the rest of the CFB world. I don't want to see my team fall back into the pack, but I wouldn't mind seeing enough spread of talent across the board for there to be 10-15 major players in the game instead of just 5 or 6.
 

Trait Expectations

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All good man, didn't take it as snarky. Jaylon was a top 5 lock so he's even more of a serious example than Williams will potentially be this yaer.

Apologize for the long post but bear with me: there's a big difference:

The first overall pick last year, Lawrence, cashed in on a $37M deal, fully guaranteed.

Joe Tryon went No. 32: he signed an $11.2M deal with $8.2M guaranteed. You're talking about a $26M overall difference, with $29M (!) difference in guaranteed money if Tryon suffered a career ending injury early in his career.

For argument's stake, I'll split the difference between you saying top 15 and me saying top 5, and let's assume Jaylon stayed healthy and went No. 10.

Last year, No 10. overall was DaVonta Smith, who inked a $20.2M, fully guaranteed. Elijah Moore was drafted 34th overall, in the same spot Jaylon was. He inked a $9M contract, $6M guaranteed. That's a difference of $11M in total contract and $14M in guaranteed cash. ($18M / $21M compared to Lawrence).

Of course, any of these guys who get drafted are making "life changing" money compared to most anyone. There's a stark difference between making $80 or 90k vs. $400k playing on a practice squad. But to act like the difference between $5M or $30M isn't huge for these guys is pretty far fetched IMO.

KH is one of those guys who is a top 10 lock, looking at a $20-25M difference in contract value and guaranteed money, and he had already sustained a pretty serious injury against UNC. Williams is a little more head scratching given he's likely a mid-round grade, but let's not act like Running Backs aren't one of the most injury prone positions in all of sports.

And, again, if the coaches and teammates don't have sour grapes over these guys going, why should the fans? What do players owe us fans that they don't owe their teammates and coaches?

EDIT: you can also argue that Jaylon was never the same football player after the injury; he's become quite the journeyman, unfortunately.

So, again to clarify: $9M is no longer life-changing money at 21? I get the differences in relative values of the contracts at the different positions but the argument is stated like guys who get injured in bowl games won't be able to pay rent. They are all still draftable and still bringing in big time money, even post injury. I mean most of these guys were born with inordinate physical abilities so they are playing with house money from birth. So many people will argue against this but there is still the element of "love for the game". That's why most of us were shocked Kyren sat out and I think we could claim Kyren sitting out was probably the different between a W or an L.

I get the pressure from all sides of this, I just wanted to clarify that most people don't get injured and then go from million dollar valuations to undrafted or 6th round practice squad. Great players get great surgeons and great rehab and ultimately great money.

I guess like a good capitalist society, we put money above all else and these kids are only following the blueprint laid out before them. I guess this is a lamentation on the state of everything.

This isn't to be passed off as judgement, this is a mild examination of the other side
 

Some Irish Bloke

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So, again to clarify: $9M is no longer life-changing money at 21? I get the differences in relative values of the contracts at the different positions but the argument is stated like guys who get injured in bowl games won't be able to pay rent. They are all still draftable and still bringing in big time money, even post injury. I mean most of these guys were born with inordinate physical abilities so they are playing with house money from birth. So many people will argue against this but there is still the element of "love for the game". That's why most of us were shocked Kyren sat out and I think we could claim Kyren sitting out was probably the different between a W or an L.

I get the pressure from all sides of this, I just wanted to clarify that most people don't get injured and then go from million dollar valuations to undrafted or 6th round practice squad. Great players get great surgeons and great rehab and ultimately great money.

I guess like a good capitalist society, we put money above all else and these kids are only following the blueprint laid out before them. I guess this is a lamentation on the state of everything.

This isn't to be passed off as judgement, this is a mild examination of the other side

Sure, I can understand that and appreciate that argument. But guaranteeing oneself $30M vs. $9M? That's $21M big ones. Who in their right mind would say, "nah, keep the other $20 mil, I've got $9 already, after all."

I think for these guys, it probably was a gut-wrenching decision to make. I don't question their love for ND. Kyle Hamilton is a unicorn. He will be a top 10 draft pick, not many humans get to say that. Insta-rich. Again, Williams was the bigger shock, no argument there.

I played football for the love of the game. That ended after high school. I'd do just about anything to play one more game for free. Again, I don't think any of us can really relate. If you present the facts to Hamilton, it's gotta be hard to pass up on extra tens of millions.
 

Dale

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Hardly breaking news but things moving another small step. It says Jenkins is on the “Board of Managers” while Jack is on the “Management Committee”
 

IrishLion

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6 Conference champs, 6 at-large.

11-1 gets you in. 10-2 probably gets ND in the playoff most years, as well.

The current format is *kind of* about getting hot at the end of the year, if you want to take down two other elite challengers.

Now the playoff is REALLY about getting hot at the right time.

It might devalue the idea of "perfection" during the regular season... but the regular season itself just saw a huge jump in value, imo. More seats at the table means more conference-wide intrigue, and more Group-of-5 teams in the conversation, as well.
 

ACamp1900

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Only thing good about this at all is ND will win some big games now,… and it’ll be clear we never needed this garbage after ten straight season of the top four plastering the rest of the field
 

stlnd01

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Why would B1G and SEC vote for this?
Because many years they’ll have two or three playoff teams?
Last year in this model they would have each had three (Bama, UGA, Ole Miss and Michigan, OSU and Sparty). The Big 12 would’ve had two as well, and Oklahoma wasn’t even one of them.
 

tussin

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Because many years they’ll have two or three playoff teams?
Last year in this model they would have each had three (Bama, UGA, Ole Miss and Michigan, OSU and Sparty). The Big 12 would’ve had two as well, and Oklahoma wasn’t even one of them.
I guess my thought is that if I am the B1G or SEC there are not 6 conferences worthy of an autobid.
 

greyhammer90

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SEC and B1G would never go for it, but the only way to maintain any semblance of importance for the regular season is to make it so that if you are in a conference, you must at least win your division to be an at-large team. That would actually make rivalry week at the end of the year mean something because most teams are playing division opponents.
 

StPaul_Irish

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A 12 team playoff means that the regular season matters for some teams but not for the Bamas and OSUs of the world. Bama could now lose 3 times and still get in. Such a farce.

Not a farce if they are a conference camp. Why shouldn't a team be rewarded for winning their conference?
 

stlnd01

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I guess my thought is that if I am the B1G or SEC there are not 6 conferences worthy of an autobid.
Maybe some years, but it’s still a democracy. Throwing a bone to the G5 or the occasional weak ACC/Pac 12 champ (Pitt last year) is a small price to pay. The Big 10 in particular will get a lot more playoff spots out of this, I suspect.
 

greyhammer90

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Not a farce if they are a conference camp. Why shouldn't a team be rewarded for winning their conference?

I don't have a problem with auto-conference spots. If we're going to go with playoffs, I think auto-conference spots are necessary.

If you don't think a 2 or 3 loss non-conference champ Bama or OSU is getting an at large bid, I've got a bridge to sell you.

Basically, I think ESPN/Fox control too much of this sport. That's why I've always been fine with conference champion locks as a necessary evil. At least conference champions are determined by wins and losses on the field, and not by Desmond Howard giving a dumb take.

But now everyone is trying to have their cake and eat it too. They've decided to give every conference a spot, and then add six (6!) at large bids to make sure marketable teams that already have huge advantages get two bites at the apple in case they stumble in the regular season. I have no doubt that ND will probably benefit from this as well, but I'm a bigger college football fan than a Notre Dame fan, and I think this system is going to pretty much destroy interest in the regular season for a lot of the country. Nobody cares about the 1 second punt return if Alabama just goes, "lol whoops" and goes to the playoffs two weeks later.
 
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WilliamWallace

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So it seems there will be 11 spots available, one reserved for ND. Does this solidify ND’s independence for at least some time?
 

stlnd01

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SEC and B1G would never go for it, but the only way to maintain any semblance of importance for the regular season is to make it so that if you are in a conference, you must at least win your division to be an at-large team. That would actually make rivalry week at the end of the year mean something because most teams are playing division opponents.
That places too much importance on random-ass divisions though. Also caps the number of teams from any conference at two, kind of wiping out the whole point of this from the B1G/SEC perspective.
 

greyhammer90

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That places too much importance on random-ass divisions though. Also caps the number of teams from any conference at two, kind of wiping out the whole point of this from the B1G/SEC perspective.

I wasn't saying what was in the best interest of the B1G or the SEC, I was saying what was in the best interest of the sport. I agree they wouldn't agree to it.
 

stlnd01

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So it seems there will be 11 spots available, one reserved for ND. Does this solidify ND’s independence for at least some time?
There are three factors, I think, to us staying independent.

1: TV revenue has to be competitive.
2: Playoff access.
3: Being able to put together a good schedule.

1 and now 2 seem on their way to being taken care of. 3 might be harder as the big conferences grow. Or not, depending. We’ll see.
 

IrishLion

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The board approved the following:

1. The 12 teams will be the six conference champions ranked highest by the selection committee (no minimum ranking requirement), plus the six highest-ranked teams not included among the six highest-ranked conference champions.

2. The ranking of the teams will continue to be done by a selection committee whose size, composition, and method of selection will remain substantially unchanged. The Management Committee will modify the selection protocol as required by the change to the playoff structure.

3. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded one through four and each will receive a first-round bye.

4. The other eight teams will play in the first round with the higher seeds hosting the lower seeds either on campus or at other sites designated by the higher-seeded institution (No. 12 at No. 5, No. 11 at No. 6, No. 10 at No. 7 and No. 9 at No. 8.)
 

stlnd01

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I wasn't saying what was in the best interest of the B1G or the SEC, I was saying what was in the best interest of the sport. I agree they wouldn't agree to it.
They need to find a way to keep the regular season important, I agree. But again looking at last year, is it really in the best interest of the sport to have Oregon, Iowa and Wake in the playoffs instead of Ole Miss, Ohio State and Sparty? Those were all lesser teams, but they won divisions and the other guys didn’t.

Divisions are so random. The Big 12 doesn’t even have them.
 
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