this was good deal for both teams IMO
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White Sox/Yankees
After getting Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease in exchange for Jose Quintana, it seemed that Hahn would have to be done getting highly-rated prospects for his remaining saleable assets. Among Jose Abreu, David Robertson, Todd Frazier and others, there didn’t seem much that would return big value. That’s not to say Hahn couldn’t continue to bolster the system, but it seemed more likely he would add depth pieces or even organizational players rather than the likes of Jimenez and Lucas Giolito and Yoan Moncada.
So his ability to assemble a package, with two veterans and a reliever who’s been good for 14 weeks, to get yet another top-end prospect is impressive. Hahn sent Frazier, Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle to the Yankees last night in exchange for outfielder Blake Rutherford (#18 overall pick in 2016, MLB.com’s #30 overall prospect), two other prospects, and the obligation to pay the last of the $4.25 million being paid to Tyler Clippard this year. Rutherford is the prize, currently hitting .281/.342/.391 in his first full season in the Sally League. An old high schooler, Rutherford is already 20, which limits his projection, but MLB Pipeline rates him as having average to above-average tools across the board. Long term, he could be a #6 hitter with average to average-plus defense in an outfield corner. We can have an argument about Rutherford’s rank -- Keith Law, to pick an example, didn’t have Rutherford in his midseason top 50 -- but this is a player who was a first-round pick 13 months ago, He’s a valuable property that Hahn got for two veterans who were short-term Sox and whatever Kahnle is. Ian Clarkin, the second prospect, is an injury-case lefty just getting his career started four years after being drafted. He’s a low-upside lefty at least two years away. Tito Polo, the third prospect, is a great name with some chance of being a 25th man.
There’s a notion that the Yankees have made a significant upgrade to their bullpen, what with Clippard being less effective than the New York City subway system in July. While conceding that this is a bit of cheating with endpoints, the notion that Clippard is the worst reliever in this trade is a very new one.
36 Days Ago (Stats through June 12)
ERA IP K% K/UIBB
Clippard 1.73 26.0 31% 32/10
Kahnle 1.48 24.1 48% 43/5
Robertson 3.09 23.1 37% 33/6
I’m guessing I don’t have to tell you that Tyler Clippard had a longer track record of effectiveness than Tommy Kahnle did coming into 2017, and that he’d been within shouting distance of Robertson over the past few years as well. Clippard has gotten lost over the past five weeks, allowing 15 runs in 10 1/3 innings over his last 12 appearances, with ten strikeouts, eight walks and four homers allowed. He’s been at the center of a number of ugly Yankees losses -- they lost nine of ten games in which he appeared from June 13 through July 7 -- and had become the focal point of fan frustration with the bullpen’s performance.
Maybe Tommy Kahnle has turned a corner. Over at Fangraphs, Jeff Sullivan hit the timing lottery with a piece yesterday calling him a Sox trade chip and breaking down his performance so far. Kahnle is throwing harder and more effectively this year than he ever has before, and a 60/6 K/UIBB -- his season total, including a 43% strikeout rate -- is no joke. It’s possible that the Yankees have bought in early to a pitcher who will hold this level for the next few seasons. However, had I asked you a month ago who is better, Tyler Clippard or Tommy Kahnle, you would have said, “Who is Tommy Kahnle?” I think any evaluation of this trade that emphasizes the difference between Clippard and Kahnle today is really emphasizing five weeks of difference, fewer than 20 innings of work. Maybe this is one career ending and another beginning, but if you’re the Yankees, it pretty much has to be for this deal to be an upgrade.
Robertson returns from whence he came, and like Kahnle adds depth to a bullpen that has been ridden hard and, given the condition of the starting rotation, will continue to be ridden hard. He’s a credible average reliever now, and he’s signed for 2018 as well. The Yankees, if nothing else, have just about locked down their bullpen for next season in this deal.
The third piece, Todd Frazier, is a known quantity, a durable, league-average hitter who plays average to slightly better defense at third base. He hit .220/.311/.454 in his time in Chicago, good for a 107 OPS+ and 102 wRC+. Instead of replacing Chase Headley at third base in New York, Frazier may instead inherit the playing time of the team’s first basemen, with either he or Headley taking over at the cold corner. This might be an upgrade -- Yankees’ first basemen have hit .208/.295/.391 this year in the wake of Greg Bird’s injury-riddled season -- but it’s far from a big one. Frazier has played first base infrequently and, by the numbers, poorly, while Headley has 62 career innings over there, so there could be a defensive hit as well. Even after this, the Yankees could still be in the market for the likes of Yonder Alonso or Lucas Dude. Todd Frazier just doesn’t change the offense much.
It’s tangential, but this is the kind of trade that makes me think about how interesting it would be if teams could trade their draft picks. The Yankees have basically sent their first-round pick, a year removed, out for a package that might make them a win or two better over the rest of the season, and is hardly guaranteed to even do that. Framed that way, it’s not a good deal. Even if you think it is, that disagreement in and of itself would add interest and intrigue to the draft that simply isn’t there now. I would like to see how teams value their first-round picks, and this deal definitely gives us an idea of what the 18th pick in the draft is worth in the trade market.
Anyway, Rick Hahn did more work here, adding a piece of real value for what amounts to ephemera. There’s at least some chance he can turn Clippard into something as well, if not this month, then next. The Yankees paid a steep price without changing their outlook all that much. They’ve now been a pretty bad team for more than two months -- 26-35 since May 8 -- and many of the hitters whose big starts drove the offense have regressed back to their expected numbers or headed to the disabled list. The stable rotation has seen Michael Pineda lost to Tommy John surgery, and is leaning heavily on two young starters who have never seen 160 innings in a season before. The best-case scenario is that the Yankees hold on for a wild card slot; the worst is that they’ve dealt a rated prospect to no good end.
