Brian Kelly Revisited (RIP BOZO)
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gkIrish
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Half of that interview was BK discussing his resume. Interesting...
Defense in Kelly years:
2011 Ranked 24th Against Scoring @ 20.7 points per game
2012 Ranked 2nd Against Scoring @ 12.8 points per game
2013 Ranked 74th Against Scoring @ 27.2 points per game
2014 Ranked 85th Against Scoring @ 29.2points per game
2015 Ranked 41st Against Scoring @ 24.1 points per game
2016 Currently Ranked 69th @ 27.7 points per game
Overall recruiting class has consistently been ranked in the top 20 over those years. Either overall class has been highly over-rated suggesting our coaches are doing a poor job of evaluating and recruiting talent or that the coaches are doing a poor job of developing that talent once it arrives at Notre Dame. Those Notre Dame defensive players that have produced in the NFL are the exception rather than the rule. Harrison Smith and Manti Teo were both Weiss recruits. What other Notre Dame defensive players from the Kelly era have been starters in the NFL? Notre Dame doesn't get credit for those who left before graduation and finished their career elsewhere, such as Aaron Lynch.
2011 Ranked 24th Against Scoring @ 20.7 points per game
2012 Ranked 2nd Against Scoring @ 12.8 points per game
2013 Ranked 74th Against Scoring @ 27.2 points per game
2014 Ranked 85th Against Scoring @ 29.2points per game
2015 Ranked 41st Against Scoring @ 24.1 points per game
2016 Currently Ranked 69th @ 27.7 points per game
Overall recruiting class has consistently been ranked in the top 20 over those years. Either overall class has been highly over-rated suggesting our coaches are doing a poor job of evaluating and recruiting talent or that the coaches are doing a poor job of developing that talent once it arrives at Notre Dame. Those Notre Dame defensive players that have produced in the NFL are the exception rather than the rule. Harrison Smith and Manti Teo were both Weiss recruits. What other Notre Dame defensive players from the Kelly era have been starters in the NFL? Notre Dame doesn't get credit for those who left before graduation and finished their career elsewhere, such as Aaron Lynch.
Geez, with the reasoning around these parts, PPatterson would lose his job at TCU and Dantonio would be gone at Mich St.
Funny how a lot of folks here were saying we should try to get Herman, but I doubt that's the case with losses to SMU and Navy within the last 3 weeks. Internet forum fans are a fickle bunch.
Let's go back to 2013 when folks thought BK may jump to the NFL. Who of those on that list would we clearly still want. Here's the list of people referenced then:
1. Urban - sure, we'd still want him, but it's not happening.
2. Bill O'Brien - sure, we'd want him, but he's not going to leave Houston/NFL until he gets pushed out. He's doing an ok job at Houston.
3. Tom Clements - I doubt anyone would be thrilled considering he's old at age 63. I think he'd be good, but again do we really want someone that old?
4. Skip Holtz - not exactly lighting the world on fire. At best, this is a slight downgrade, especially considering his struggles at USF.
5. Chuck Martin - he hasn't done well at Miami, so no.
6. Diaco - he hasn't done well at UConn, so no.
7. Strong - I wanted him over BK back in 2009. He's struggled at Texas, so he's probably a lateral move at best now despite his success at Louisville. I doubt many would be excited.
8. Fitzgerald - he's done historically well at NU (his alma mater), which is pretty solid. I'm just not seeing him as being an upgrade to BK, and I don't see many excited even if he did come.
9. Bob Stoops - perennially good at OU, but who knows if he'd leave OU. I'm pretty sure most would be excited if we managed to nab him.
So those were the 9 names thrown around last time, and Strong or Clements are the only decent ones we could realistically get. Now, let's look at the names floating around now to see if any of those folks from above are on it:
1. Urban - again, not going to happen.
2. Stoops - see above. Probably not happening.
3. Herman - he can't beat Navy and SMU, so why?
4. Miles - join the races for him. I'm not even sure he'd be a step up.
5. Kiffin - Swarbrick would have to go into hiding.
6. Peterson - probably isn't leaving UW. He turned down some other big opportunities before leaving for UW, so I think West Coast is where he wants to be.
7. Clements - see above.
8. Dantonio - kind of a lateral move.
9. Fedora - intriguing option. I'd hope we'd be able to get him. However, the lack of defense is a problem.
10. Whittingham - decent option, but I'm not sure he's an upgrade.
11. Gruden - it's unclear whether he'd want it. It's not clear if he'd be any good at the college level either.
12. Petrino - not going to happen with his prior transgressions.
13. Tressel - probably the same as Petrino. Not as bad as Petrino, so who knows. He's also kind of old.
14. Fleck - Probably no better than BK, so it's hard to get excited here. BK had a better track record.
15. Mullen - eh. He hasn't really done anything special so far beyond making Miss St decent.
16. Schiano - very solid pick. If you can make Rutgers good, then you're worth a shot.
So note that there are only 4 names from the prior list, with Clements as the only likely option out of that bunch. Schiano and Fedora are the best options of those I think we'd get, so if they don't excite you, then perhaps we should stop clamoring to get rid of BK who's been rather solid over the years especially when you factor in dumb, off-field crap that has hindered this team repeatedly.
Funny how a lot of folks here were saying we should try to get Herman, but I doubt that's the case with losses to SMU and Navy within the last 3 weeks. Internet forum fans are a fickle bunch.
Let's go back to 2013 when folks thought BK may jump to the NFL. Who of those on that list would we clearly still want. Here's the list of people referenced then:
1. Urban - sure, we'd still want him, but it's not happening.
2. Bill O'Brien - sure, we'd want him, but he's not going to leave Houston/NFL until he gets pushed out. He's doing an ok job at Houston.
3. Tom Clements - I doubt anyone would be thrilled considering he's old at age 63. I think he'd be good, but again do we really want someone that old?
4. Skip Holtz - not exactly lighting the world on fire. At best, this is a slight downgrade, especially considering his struggles at USF.
5. Chuck Martin - he hasn't done well at Miami, so no.
6. Diaco - he hasn't done well at UConn, so no.
7. Strong - I wanted him over BK back in 2009. He's struggled at Texas, so he's probably a lateral move at best now despite his success at Louisville. I doubt many would be excited.
8. Fitzgerald - he's done historically well at NU (his alma mater), which is pretty solid. I'm just not seeing him as being an upgrade to BK, and I don't see many excited even if he did come.
9. Bob Stoops - perennially good at OU, but who knows if he'd leave OU. I'm pretty sure most would be excited if we managed to nab him.
So those were the 9 names thrown around last time, and Strong or Clements are the only decent ones we could realistically get. Now, let's look at the names floating around now to see if any of those folks from above are on it:
1. Urban - again, not going to happen.
2. Stoops - see above. Probably not happening.
3. Herman - he can't beat Navy and SMU, so why?
4. Miles - join the races for him. I'm not even sure he'd be a step up.
5. Kiffin - Swarbrick would have to go into hiding.
6. Peterson - probably isn't leaving UW. He turned down some other big opportunities before leaving for UW, so I think West Coast is where he wants to be.
7. Clements - see above.
8. Dantonio - kind of a lateral move.
9. Fedora - intriguing option. I'd hope we'd be able to get him. However, the lack of defense is a problem.
10. Whittingham - decent option, but I'm not sure he's an upgrade.
11. Gruden - it's unclear whether he'd want it. It's not clear if he'd be any good at the college level either.
12. Petrino - not going to happen with his prior transgressions.
13. Tressel - probably the same as Petrino. Not as bad as Petrino, so who knows. He's also kind of old.
14. Fleck - Probably no better than BK, so it's hard to get excited here. BK had a better track record.
15. Mullen - eh. He hasn't really done anything special so far beyond making Miss St decent.
16. Schiano - very solid pick. If you can make Rutgers good, then you're worth a shot.
So note that there are only 4 names from the prior list, with Clements as the only likely option out of that bunch. Schiano and Fedora are the best options of those I think we'd get, so if they don't excite you, then perhaps we should stop clamoring to get rid of BK who's been rather solid over the years especially when you factor in dumb, off-field crap that has hindered this team repeatedly.
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Or they develop talent really well but have put poor schemes on the field so you don't see the impact of these players like you should...
Consider the quantity of players we are putting in the NFL. You can't produce more players than only a handful of schools (literally, less than a dozen) and then say "oh, they aren't developing players, because I'll call all the great players 'exceptions.'" Also, developing Weis players to be MUCH better than they were under Weis is the definition of player development.
College football: Schools with the most players in the NFL | NCAA.com
Notre Dame is tied for 9th in terms of active NFL players, and 85% of them played for Kelly. So there is no logic that supports the idea that Kelly can churn out NFL players at a Top 10 rate... but somehow he and his staff "suck" at player development.
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Also, opponent adjusted advanced stats adjusted defense ranks for ND under Diaco for first three years:
2010: 10th (S&P), 11th (FEI)
2011: 11th (S&P), 18th (FEI)
2012: 8th (S&P), 14th (FEI)
So obviously, it's as simple as coaching. And they developed Weis players (supplemented with their own recruits) into a very effective unit for multiple years.
Then the wheels started falling off in 2013 with a plague of injuries, and then recruiting holes + attrition lead to depth/talent deficiencies, and then the coaching staff/scheme changed.
Step 1) get identity that works Step 2) recruit to that identity Step 3) coach and develop players to be effective. Worked for three years, then they stopped doing #2, then then screwed up #1. And it's questionable whether they've lost #3 because of the scheme issues, or because the overhauled staff is substandard.
2010: 10th (S&P), 11th (FEI)
2011: 11th (S&P), 18th (FEI)
2012: 8th (S&P), 14th (FEI)
So obviously, it's as simple as coaching. And they developed Weis players (supplemented with their own recruits) into a very effective unit for multiple years.
Then the wheels started falling off in 2013 with a plague of injuries, and then recruiting holes + attrition lead to depth/talent deficiencies, and then the coaching staff/scheme changed.
Step 1) get identity that works Step 2) recruit to that identity Step 3) coach and develop players to be effective. Worked for three years, then they stopped doing #2, then then screwed up #1. And it's questionable whether they've lost #3 because of the scheme issues, or because the overhauled staff is substandard.
gkIrish
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It's absolutely still the case for me. Unlike fans that change their opinions week to week, I base my opinions on entire body of work.
What the feeling about Bama program between Stallings and Saban? How did fans feel about the program?
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Per ESPN
2011 Ranked 18th/65 among P5's.
2012 Ranked 2nd/65 among P5's
2013 Gave up 22.4 ppg which ranked 18th/65 among P5's
2014 Ranked 50th/65 among P5's
2015 Gave up 22.4 ppg which ranked 21st/65 among P5's
2016 Ranked 67th in DI, 40th/65 among P5's
kmoose
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Considering that 2010 was still considered Weis' recruits, Kelly's defenders are in either their rookie year, or their second season in the NFL. Not many of those guys start, from any school. But:
Sheldon Day has played in all 6 games for the Jaguars.
Matthias Farley has played in all 6 games for the Colts.
Romeo Okwara has played in all 6 games for the Giants.
My source for Notre Dame defense against scoring. It includes bowl games and you can click your way from year to year. Perhaps, your stats do not include bowl games. That might explain the discrepancy.
2011 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Stats | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
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Uhh, nope. Mine include bowl game. I used the advanced stats from football outsiders. That's why I listed the S&P and FEI right next to the ranks. These are the best in the business opponent adjusted advanced stats that people using in evaluating teams, setting lines, etc.
You're using vanilla stats about points allowed. The stats I link exist specifically because the stats you're linking are basically worthless from a discussion purposes of who is "good" or "bad."
tko
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Lax, a buddy of mine threw out the name Ken N. from Navy and I about fell off my chair. He was talking about how Ken could bring his toughness to ND, hire a OC to run a more traditional offense and bring a tough DC in as well. While he piqued my interest slightly, I just can't envision Ken N. being a head coach at ND.
dad4aa
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This is generally a very good post, but the ultimate conclusion and some of the bolded is very questionable.
1) NFL draft picks and the general amount of talent placed in the NFL tells a different story about "player development" . Harrison Smith raved about his coaching. Same with Will Fuller. Same with a lot of players. ND has put more talent in the NFL under Kelly than all but a few schools. Players are being developed, and being developed on both sides of the ball.
2) Kelly has never been reluctant to play young players. BVG was reluctant to play guys he didn't "trust" and Kelly has made a conscientious move to correct this issue. In fact, he talked about it at length after firing BVG and proof has been in the pudding. Under Diaco this was never the case (see Farley and KVR staring in 2012 on defense with no experience). And it's not been the case on offense. You could make stronger argument that he should be red shirting more guys (see: Okwarax2) than that he "isn't playing young guys." Really, there are only a handful of examples him sticking with an "under performing veteran" and they're almost exclusively on defense under BVG with Joe Schmidt being the one everyone points to.
3) Some people might legitimately be turned off by Kelly's antics in the USF game (he hasn't gone "red face" in 5 years) and by his general coaching style. This is legitimate. But Harbaugh and Saban... who will sign the top two classes this year... are 10x worse, and they still get it done on the trail. So I don't really buy that it's a huge issue.
4) Notre Dame's graduation rates obviously destroy the argument that average kids "can't make it at ND," so there's really no point discussing this. If a recruit is "questioning" that, then they're an idiot. Every school has academic attrition, we just pay attention to ours more closely.
5) The idea that there are tons of high star guys ready to play and not being given the opportunity for no reason is just a fallacy. People look at the Nyles Morgan situation as proof of this, but he's the exception not the rule. Jay Hayes vs Trumbetti... well, Trumbetti was a 4too and people were complaining that he wasn't playing more behind Okwara (who was simply much better and an NFL caliber player). Sometimes there's a reason someone is sitting. Same with people calling for Redfield over FArley cuz Refield had the stars... guess which one is in the NFL getting snaps and which one is on the street with seemingly no future. And with Hayes, again, Kelly moved to correct that once he ditched BVG. Again, looking at 7 years of results proves this isn't the case overall. Lynch, Tuitt, etc. got reps immediately after getting on campus. Fuller got reps as a frosh. They went to more talented Golson as a RS frosh in 2012 over more experienced Tommy Rees strictly on upside/arm talent.
5B) Wimbush got reps as a true frosh. QBs usually take at least a RS year at every major program. DeShone Kizer was the returning starter coming off a 10 win campaign and was pilled as a top NFL draft pick. There is literally no kid that will look at a (happy) Brandon Wimbush who has the opportunity to be a 3 year starter and say "oh my gosh they did him wrong!" This displays a fundamental misunderstanding of how college QBs are groomed if there is someone good ahead of them. At the point where the team committed to Kizer, they had to sit Wimbush this year to preserve that year of eligibility. Anything else would be malpractice for both him and the team.
6) For the majority of Brian Kelly's tenure, the defense has not been a "failure." It has been a failure for the past 3 seasons. Part of that is recruiting... which is a chicken & egg kind of the thing. If Diaco and Cooks and BVG had recruited harder, then we wouldn't have been stuck with so many roster holes and having to go with the youth movement. If the scheme wasn't terrible under BVG, then the defense would've produced better and it would've been easier for him to attract recruits. No recruits right now care about that past, though. They're waiting to see who the DC hire is. They're looking at early PT... something you're saying doesn't exist, despite the fact that there is a massive youth movement on that side of the ball... and they're looking at player development. If you're a defensive recruit, you'd be foolish NOT to look at Notre Dame if your goal is to get PT and get to the NFL. Or you're interested in an elite education. Or (insert a number of other attractive aspects)... as long as the DC is someone you believe in, and that DC is a good salesman. There was a serious issue under BVG of many players questioning whether they were being put in a position to succeed that did not exist under Diaco/Cooks/Elliot/Elston. The new staff... whether or not Lyght, Elston, or Gimore is retained... has to re-establish the credibility Notre Dame had for the first four years under Kelly.
Now this is an excellent post. Reps Lax!!
ShamrockOnHelmet
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Additionally, some schools (Auburn, etc.) basically have run variants of an "option" offense with significant success. Not the triple option Navy runs, but a run heavy option offense that takes occasional shots down the field or utilizes RPOs.
irishff1014
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This is generally a very good post, but the ultimate conclusion and some of the bolded is very questionable.
1) NFL draft picks and the general amount of talent placed in the NFL tells a different story about "player development" . Harrison Smith raved about his coaching. Same with Will Fuller. Same with a lot of players. ND has put more talent in the NFL under Kelly than all but a few schools. Players are being developed, and being developed on both sides of the ball.
2) Kelly has never been reluctant to play young players. BVG was reluctant to play guys he didn't "trust" and Kelly has made a conscientious move to correct this issue. In fact, he talked about it at length after firing BVG and proof has been in the pudding. Under Diaco this was never the case (see Farley and KVR staring in 2012 on defense with no experience). And it's not been the case on offense. You could make stronger argument that he should be red shirting more guys (see: Okwarax2) than that he "isn't playing young guys." Really, there are only a handful of examples him sticking with an "under performing veteran" and they're almost exclusively on defense under BVG with Joe Schmidt being the one everyone points to.
3) Some people might legitimately be turned off by Kelly's antics in the USF game (he hasn't gone "red face" in 5 years) and by his general coaching style. This is legitimate. But Harbaugh and Saban... who will sign the top two classes this year... are 10x worse, and they still get it done on the trail. So I don't really buy that it's a huge issue.
4) Notre Dame's graduation rates obviously destroy the argument that average kids "can't make it at ND," so there's really no point discussing this. If a recruit is "questioning" that, then they're an idiot. Every school has academic attrition, we just pay attention to ours more closely.
5) The idea that there are tons of high star guys ready to play and not being given the opportunity for no reason is just a fallacy. People look at the Nyles Morgan situation as proof of this, but he's the exception not the rule. Jay Hayes vs Trumbetti... well, Trumbetti was a 4
5B) Wimbush got reps as a true frosh. QBs usually take at least a RS year at every major program. DeShone Kizer was the returning starter coming off a 10 win campaign and was pilled as a top NFL draft pick. There is literally no kid that will look at a (happy) Brandon Wimbush who has the opportunity to be a 3 year starter and say "oh my gosh they did him wrong!" This displays a fundamental misunderstanding of how college QBs are groomed if there is someone good ahead of them. At the point where the team committed to Kizer, they had to sit Wimbush this year to preserve that year of eligibility. Anything else would be malpractice for both him and the team.
6) For the majority of Brian Kelly's tenure, the defense has not been a "failure." It has been a failure for the past 3 seasons. Part of that is recruiting... which is a chicken & egg kind of the thing. If Diaco and Cooks and BVG had recruited harder, then we wouldn't have been stuck with so many roster holes and having to go with the youth movement. If the scheme wasn't terrible under BVG, then the defense would've produced better and it would've been easier for him to attract recruits. No recruits right now care about that past, though. They're waiting to see who the DC hire is. They're looking at early PT... something you're saying doesn't exist, despite the fact that there is a massive youth movement on that side of the ball... and they're looking at player development. If you're a defensive recruit, you'd be foolish NOT to look at Notre Dame if your goal is to get PT and get to the NFL. Or you're interested in an elite education. Or (insert a number of other attractive aspects)... as long as the DC is someone you believe in, and that DC is a good salesman. There was a serious issue under BVG of many players questioning whether they were being put in a position to succeed that did not exist under Diaco/Cooks/Elliot/Elston. The new staff... whether or not Lyght, Elston, or Gimore is retained... has to re-establish the credibility Notre Dame had for the first four years under Kelly.
Rep the man i can't
Auburn did just run for over 500 yards just last night.
And they were using that same offense just 2 years ago to make a run at a national title, where if they could have just covered a KO return, they would have won the National Title.
You just need to execute it, which means your need the right teachers, or coaches in this case.
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Yup, comes with commitment to their identity. Malzahn was the architect behind when they won with Cam, and then same thing in 2013 when Nick Marshall almost got them another one.
Sean White isn't an uber athlete, so it's interesting to see them have lots of success in some games but struggle in the ones they've played against extremely talented front 7s. I think their ideal QB has to be a little more of threat with their legs.
T Town Tommy
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Bama fans were and still are some of the most entitlement fans out there. During that timeframe, it seemed the program had no identity, no focus, too many people that thought they knew how to fix it... from who the coach was, should be, wouldn't be, and on and on. When desperation set in, some thought the only way to fix it was to buy their way out of it. In the end it was as simple as making the correct coaching hire. Once that happened, the whole thing changed. That's why I still think Notre Dame can be a top 10 program and challenge every 4-5 years for a title. Just takes a blue blood one correct hire and then it starts.
NDRock
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That's really the whole problem with the program. From a macro perspective, the last four coaches have all run different types of offense (option, west coast, Pro-style, Passing spread). The last two coaches changed their defenses halfway through from a 3-4 base to a more 4-3 blitz happy defense. Both were huge failures, one that put the nail in Weis' coffin the other that may end up being Kelly's undoing. I have no identity what our identity is.
I really want the next coach to play to ND's strengths. How Kelly could look at ND's historic (and recent) ability to attract elite OL and TEs and decide to throw the ball all over the field to everybody but our TEs drives me crazy. Our TEs are on pace to catch 12 passes all year. He obviously doesn't care about the position (or special teams) as he continues to keep Scott Booker employed. The blocked punt against NC State was Booker's coaching masterpiece. Bad alignment, his TE getting blown backwards, punt blocked, ballgame.
The best coach for ND would be someone like Harbaugh. Sucks that he's a Michigan man. Maybe Schiano would be good. He always played tough, physical ball at Rutgers.
NDgradstudent
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He has a brother...make the call
NDRock
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I'd take him in a heartbeat. Doesn't seem like many NFL guys would go to college unless they had to. Jim would get another NFL gig easily, IMO. Still, gotta make the call.
NDRock
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Ouch, that hurts. The one thing I thought Kelly was going to bring with him, was an attitude. I just assumed he was a guy with a chip on his shoulder wanting to prove he belonged with the big boys. I remember the guys on ISD preferred him over Stoops because he had that "fire in the belly" which Stoops may have lost. Didn't think he'd go all elite on us. Making an appointment to see him as a recruit? Maybe ND does turn everyone soft.
I agree.
And yeah, some boosters like Young got Bama in big trouble trying to buy Means.
I still agree that ND can be a competitive Top Ten team.
Agreed.
And Marshall was not even a QB when they got him. It is all about playing up to the strengths of your players while remaining true to your identity.
irishff1014
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I find it funny that I have never seen another comment like this before. I find it odd that he's acting butt hurt because HE didn't want to take a second language.
Rocket89
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Define "work" in major college football.
I one million percent guarantee if Notre Dame switched to a true triple option the criticism would be outrageously loud from all corners.
You could take at least 25% recruiting stars away right off the bat by the switch. God knows that won't be popular. Notre Dame's traditional tight ends would all but disappear. Smaller, less highly touted linemen would be targeted which would lead to plenty of bitching about not being tough enough when the run game sputters. Obviously, receiving recruiting would struggle.
I'm not really sure what the positives are to switching to a true flexbone. Player development would have to be off the charts to off-set fewer blue-chips in recruiting. Run game would have to be absurdly effective to counter any games when we get behind and struggle throwing--Jesus, the complaining when that happens.
We already saw this play out during Holtz' mid-to-late tenure. And that was paired with stout defenses who could keep the Irish in games when the offense sputtered. There was virtually nothing more critical among the fan base than the offense during that time. I can't imagine what it would be like 25 years later when opponents can score twice as many points.
I mean, part of me kind of would like to see it but I think deep down mostly everyone knows it'd be a disaster. Maybe a Mirer-era tweaked flexbone. Maybe. But a true Coach N flexbone, no thanks.
What's the intellectually non-lazy argument in favor?
irishtrain
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Tommy its all a very good point except for one thing --no blue blood will take on Notre Dame and the culture because their hands will be tied. They just wouldn't take on the job and the ones who will Notre Dame wouldn't want. No big time coach is going to take on the restrictions that Notre Dame puts on a coach and his program. The real question is this -is this the right thing to do. By keeping a high college experience culture can you win. Lou says you can I'm not so sure in todays $$$$, win at all cost college football culture. I'm not casting stones at the admn I'm just asking the question can this be done. We are all proud of being Notre Dame fans but watching schools pass you by because they have made the decision to win is hard to swallow. By the way I have a coaching profile that I would like to recommend--someone like Mark Riecht. Good man, values, 2nd chance guy who draws a line in the sand on his rules etc-- but a guy like this wouldn't even consider Notre dame because he knows the difficulty in winning here and even a coach like that has to get players in who are players first and students second. This whole debate is like being caught in a revolving door that keeps coming back to the same issue--do you want to win at any cost and Notre Dame says no. I'm ok with that but the product on the field is far below what Notre Dame could and should be.