Body Blow Theory

[IrishLax]

One reason Notre Dame Fighting Irish are in a lot of trouble at Arizona State Sun Devils | FOX Sports

Everyone is probably already familiar with this, as Feldman and others have put out extensive pieces in the past about the regression teams show following games against Stanford/MSU. It appears that Navy has a similar effect.

People have discussed our woeful record following playing Navy, but this article points out that it basically applies to all teams.

 

[Luckylucci]

So thats really interesting. Especially considering its not just ND that it impacts but everybody they play. They're becoming the Ebola patients of CFB.

 

[NDTH91]

It accounts for Ohio states loss to va tech...

Would be interesting to see a compilation of every team's game right after navy for a few years

 

[ryno 24]

The good thing is that AsU is not really a physical football team. this would allow our d-line to fly around

 

[NCND]

One reason Notre Dame Fighting Irish are in a lot of trouble at Arizona State Sun Devils | FOX Sports

Everyone is probably already familiar with this, as Feldman and others have put out extensive pieces in the past about the regression teams show following games against Stanford/MSU. It appears that Navy has a similar effect.

People have discussed our woeful record following playing Navy, but this article points out that it basically applies to all teams.

May be true but I just feel like everyone is waiting for this team to get hammered. I dont see that happening. Folks acting like ASU is Alabama.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

More from Kelly's presser:

Because Notre Dame doesn’t play what he called “glorified byes,” Kelly said his starters must play more often than other teams in the playoff race. Kelly used Ben Koyack as an example, saying that the senior tight end has played 636 snaps, while starters on teams ahead of Notre Dame are in the 450 range.

“So regardless of what the win-loss schedule is, at the start of the season, when you put our schedule together, you're going to have to play four quarters, and you're going to put a lot on your kids," he said.

Our starters have had to play 41%+ more snaps than other playoff contenders because we refuse to schedule cupcakes. In that context, Kelly's late season success is even more remarkable. But it also emphasizes how little room for error we have with Swarbrick's current scheduling convention. Would be nice if the Committee gave us credit for it, but they seem to be ignoring the Cupcake Factor just as BCS voters did in years past.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Is there any theory, or research, out there that shows Losses for the game prior to Navy?

 

[Old Man Mike]

.... as to our late game continued energy and power: as has become a joke cliche around here --- Fire Longo.

 

[connect the dots]

In my statistical metrics toolbox, I am placing Feldman's Body Blow Theory right after Counting Rocks to Quantify Quarterback Performance! Let's count the body blows Harry Hiestand's offensive line can create to control the line of scrimmage. Move somebody. Matt Hegarty, are you listening?

 

[ickythump1225]

More from Kelly's presser:



Our starters have had to play 41%+ more snaps than other playoff contenders because we refuse to schedule cupcakes. In that context, Kelly's late season success is even more remarkable. But it also emphasizes how little room for error we have with Swarbrick's current scheduling convention. Would be nice if the Committee gave us credit for it, but they seem to be ignoring the Cupcake Factor just as BCS voters did in years past.

I really thought they were going to take that into consideration. I remember hearing about how SoS would really be taken into consideration and a few commentators pointing out FCS teams on schedules. It appears as though that is just going to be ignored and they're going to hammer ND for their "weak" schedule. It is such a joke. On any given year I'd rather play Georgia or Alabama's schedule. This season the Mississippi schools are randomly good so that changes it a bit but most seasons Alabama really only has to worry about Auburn and LSU on their schedule.

 

[irishtrain]

I really thought they were going to take that into consideration. I remember hearing about how SoS would really be taken into consideration and a few commentators pointing out FCS teams on schedules. It appears as though that is just going to be ignored and they're going to hammer ND for their "weak" schedule. It is such a joke. On any given year I'd rather play Georgia or Alabama's schedule. This season the Mississippi schools are randomly good so that changes it a bit but most seasons Alabama really only has to worry about Auburn and LSU on their schedule.

Between the circus of espn and the supposed weak Notre Dame schedule I just laugh, what a crock of %$#@. What ickythump says is totally correct. I'm telling you guys they want Notre Dame in a conference. And by the way IF Notre Dame wins the next 3 games how would you like to be going to play southern cal with ACC refs-that;ll be a joke.

 

[mick2]

I know its an unpopular view, but Navy plays a cheap brand of football and we always end up with some significant injury/ies that hurt us.

The game does nothing positive for us perception wise, need to get them off the schedule and find another way to thank them for keeping us running during ww2.

 

[irishtrain]

I know its an unpopular view, but Navy plays a cheap brand of football and we always end up with some significant injury/ies that hurt us.

The game does nothing positive for us perception wise, need to get them off the schedule and find another way to thank them for keeping us running during ww2.

Its about time these things were said-we all know when a team has little chance of winning what winning boils down to. This game has no value, "0", natta, zilch, to Notre Dame. Frankly I'm pissed Schmitt is gone and other guys were torched in this game. There is a reason why Navy doesn't play certain teams-they don't want to play Navy. If I thought Notre Dame could win the game with Sorin Halls dorm team I say let have at it. The game has out lived its usefulness.

 

[MNIrishman]

Its about time these things were said-we all know when a team has little chance of winning what winning boils down to. This game has no value, "0", natta, zilch, to Notre Dame. Frankly I'm pissed Schmitt is gone and other guys were torched in this game. There is a reason why Navy doesn't play certain teams-they don't want to play Navy. If I thought Notre Dame could win the game with Sorin Halls dorm team I say let have at it. The game has out lived its usefulness.

It's Sorin College and I suggest you show some respect for the best.

 

[irishtrain]

It's Sorin College and I suggest you show some respect for the best.

This has nothing to do with my respect for our military and men who go to the academies. My respect has been pointed out to many of my buddies about the academies. Don't tell me to have respect when you don't know how much respect I DO have for the military and what we owe them. you need to back off that statement. I stand by what I said earlier this game has outlived its usefulness to Notre Dame.

 

[stlnd01]

This has nothing to do with my respect for our military and men who go to the academies. My respect has been pointed out to many of my buddies about the academies. Don't tell me to have respect when you don't know how much respect I DO have for the military and what we owe them. you need to back off that statement. I stand by what I said earlier this game has outlived its usefulness to Notre Dame.

Settle down there, champ. I wouldn't deign to speak for MnIrishman, but I suspect he's referring to your level of respect for the Sorin College Fightin' Sorins.

 

[stlnd01]

As for the Body Blow theory, it makes sense to a certain degree. But I wouldn't discount the blows Arizona State has taken playing Stanford, Washington and Utah back-to-back-to-back. All three are also tough physical teams.

 

[philipm31]

What other way or ways do you suggest we let the Navy know?

Money?
Athletes?
Land?

Seriously. Get a grip. It is supposed to be one of ND's easier games every year. That alone should keep them on the schedule. Playing one football game a year seems pretty light payment for ND's continued existence.

 

[stlnd01]

Seriously. Get a grip. It is supposed to be one of ND's easier games every year. That alone should keep them on the schedule. Playing one football game a year seems pretty light payment for ND's continued existence.

Yup. This "dump Navy" talk is pathetic.

 

[jspags10pg]

Let's just make Navy the first game every year... it worked well in 2012...backups got to play and everything and there weren't any injuries that I remember. But we did have a pretty bad showing against Purdue the next week. Or maybe we schedule them right before a bye week every year.

I also think Reynolds has a lot to do with them giving us a hard time recently. He runs that option flawlessly and is actually a decent passer when he needs to be. Is this his last year? I sure hope so.

 

[BGIF]

I know its an unpopular view, but Navy plays a cheap brand of football and we always end up with some significant injury/ies that hurt us.

The game does nothing positive for us perception wise, need to get them off the schedule and find another way to thank them for keeping us running during ww2.

mick, please list the players and injuries that resulted from "a cheap brand of football".

Its about time these things were said-we all know when a team has little chance of winning what winning boils down to. This game has no value, "0", natta, zilch, to Notre Dame. Frankly I'm pissed Schmitt is gone and other guys were torched in this game. There is a reason why Navy doesn't play certain teams-they don't want to play Navy. If I thought Notre Dame could win the game with Sorin Halls dorm team I say let have at it. The game has out lived its usefulness.

"Frankly I'm pissed" with fans expressing outrage when they don't even know the players names. His name is S-c-h-m-i-d-t.

He's not gone from a cut block. He got his leg rolled in a scrum. That's happened to somebody in every game this season.

Two ND players were severely hurt when they collided with each other trying to sack Navy's QB. They "torched" each other.

As for even bringing up a dorm team to beat Navy, obviously you missed the past 7 seasons when ND went 4-3 against the undersized, less talented team with the substantially lower compensated coaching staff.

 

[MNIrishman]

This has nothing to do with my respect for our military and men who go to the academies.

Settle down there, champ. I wouldn't deign to speak for MnIrishman, but I suspect he's referring to your level of respect for the Sorin College Fightin' Sorins.

Haha, you're both correct.

 

[MNIrishman]

mick, please list the players and injuries that resulted from "a cheap brand of football".





"Frankly I'm pissed" with fans expressing outrage when they don't even know the players names. His name is S-c-h-m-i-d-t.

He's not gone from a cut block. He got his leg rolled in a scrum. That's happened to somebody in every game this season.

Two ND players were severely hurt when they collided with each other trying to sack Navy's QB. They "torched" each other.

As for even bringing up a dorm team to beat Navy, obviously you missed the past 7 seasons when ND went 4-3 against the undersized, less talented team with the substantially lower compensated coaching staff.

I dunno man, the Otters have been a force lately. I'd say the interhall championship is AT LEAST as tough to get as the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy.

(Hope I wouldn't need this, but /s)

 

[rocket66]

I'd get it if Navy was a 7 win team right now. The unfortunate reality is that a lot of bad to average teams have also beat them this year. I'm embarrassed that we're even discussing this.

 

[koonja]

I would guess playing LSU/Alabama/Auburn, also puts a hurting on the opponent too. I believe in the Navy theory, but I'm sure most big programs have at least one 'body blow' team on their schedule.

 

[TheTurningPoint]

I also think that the cut blocking is extremely overrated. They don't play a cheap brand of football. No one says Georgia Tech, Army, or Air Force play a cheap brand of football. Notre Dame never adapted to them getting their tackle on the outside. Simple as that.

The injuries that happened in the game had nothing to do with cut blocks. I guess we should stop playing Purdue because Baratti, Carlisle and Riggs got hurt in that game. Give me a break.

Injuries are part of football. Navy lost their starting center. Has anyone thought that Navy just plays physical as hell for 4 quarters and Notre Dame along with others dont play physical for 4 quarters? Notre Dame played physical football against Stanford the last 3 years. Notre Dame has not played physical football the last 2 years against Navy. Simple as that.

As for Feldmans article, he saw an interesting stat and won with it. Im sure you can make claims that other schools across the nation do the samething Navy is apparently doing to their opponents the next week.

 

[koonja]

I also think that the cut blocking is extremely overrated. They don't play a cheap brand of football. No one says Georgia Tech, Army, or Air Force play a cheap brand of football. Notre Dame never adapted to them getting their tackle on the outside. Simple as that.

The injuries that happened in the game had nothing to do with cut blocks. I guess we should stop playing Purdue because Baratti, Carlisle and Riggs got hurt in that game. Give me a break.

Injuries are part of football. Navy lost their starting center. Has anyone thought that Navy just plays physical as hell for 4 quarters and Notre Dame along with others dont play physical for 4 quarters? Notre Dame played physical football against Stanford the last 3 years. Notre Dame has not played physical football the last 2 years against Navy. Simple as that.

As for Feldmans article, he saw an interesting stat and won with it. Im sure you can make claims that other schools across the nation do the samething Navy is apparently doing to their opponents the next week.

That's what my point was TP (above). I'm sure there are a number of teams on most schedules that have this effect.

 

[mick2]

BGIF, last time I checked this is a forum where people have opinions, I didn't realize we were required to gather empirical data for each statement we make.

how about you do the research and let me know what you find, and if you can prove me wrong then good on you.

But I don't think I'll have to dig into the annals of history to find the injuries sustained in games against Navy, in fact I can look to last Saturday for plenty of proof. Schmidt out for season, linemen constantly on the ground needing attention, farley and day colliding after trying to tackle a short qb.

Yes, these injuries could happen in other games as well, but the stature of the navy players and the style of football they play IN MY OPINION plays a big factor in the injuries.

and what did that win do for us? not a damn thing, we're still at 10 and we look worse now since it wasn't a blowout.

 

[greyhammer90]

More from Kelly's presser:



Our starters have had to play 41%+ more snaps than other playoff contenders because we refuse to schedule cupcakes. In that context, Kelly's late season success is even more remarkable. But it also emphasizes how little room for error we have with Swarbrick's current scheduling convention. Would be nice if the Committee gave us credit for it, but they seem to be ignoring the Cupcake Factor just as BCS voters did in years past.

I'd like to see if that number holds up with players other than Koyack. TE is a very package dependant position and that could skew the numbers. I'd be more interested to see the amount our starting DL is playing versus the national average.

 

[CarrollVermin]

Interesting take on the number of snaps. It could have plenty to do with the fact that we have not been able to put anyone away this year. Its not so much schedule, its the inability to control the game.