Sure man what if we get a GT who promptly gets hurt. Angeli balls, minchey transfers were at 2 then too. What iff car decides he doesn't want to play for a school with a bunch of unproven wrs, then Leonard chases the bag and we only have Angeli and minchey.
Want to keep going?
None of this changes from my point that the goal to be at 4 is kinda pointless when all options to get to four likely lead to not being at 4.
The goal isn't to be at 4. I never tried to make that point. The hope is to be at 4 but that's not the goal. The goal is to give yourself the best chance to have at least 3. QBs transfer frequently. It's going to happen and that was true before the transfer portal.
The scenarios I gave you are likely scenarios or at least fall in the category of strong possibility. You threw out less likely scenarios. Could any of your scenarios happen? Sure, but a good coach doesn't just say, "Screw it, nothing is guaranteed so I'm just going to roll the dice and stick with what I have." A good coach makes a calculation based on what's most likely to happen and then does what's best for the team. Having a QB room with only 3 scholarship QBs heading into spring, all of whom have no starting experience, and accepting the strong possibility either Minchey or Angeli will transfer out depending on who wins the starting job (or both if Carr wins the job), is a great way to set yourself up for disaster.
If we had a deeper QB room already or at least a stud QB who is definitely ready to take over the team I'd agree with you, but I don't think we have either so MF would be negligent if he didn't pursue another GT QB.