2018 Midterm Elections

Legacy

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So the Arizona Republicans are telling Trump and the Party to just shut their mouths and they can handle their own elections, thank you.
Rep Gov. Doug Ducey after a tweet by Trump:
We often hear the phrase: Every vote matters. And the #AZSen race is proof. So let's get this right. All legally cast votes MUST be counted. Lawful votes in EVERY county in the state MUST be counted.
A second tweet by Dulce:
Let's follow the law, count the votes, prevent any cheating, and heed the will of the voters.

Arizona's Republican secretary of state, Michele Reagan:
Arizona takes elections seriously -- from the poll workers to the county elections officials, and the Secretary of State's office and everybody is working diligently to tabulate all of the election results in a manner that Arizonans can be proud of and, most importantly, trust the results.

Sen. Jeff Flake:
There is no evidence of 'electoral corruption' in Arizona, Mr. President. Thousands of dedicated Arizonans work in a non-partisan fashion every election cycle to ensure that every vote is counted. We appreciate their service."
Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee after the agreement has been reached:
"I believe there's been an agreement amongst the counties with the officials there to count everything the same, to follow the same procedure. And that's important, because a vote that's cast in Yuma shouldn't be disqualified under the same provision that qualifies a vote in Maricopa."

Get the message - Trump needs you to show him some love. #Sad. Bad. Very Bad. A disgrace.
 
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ab2cmiller

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Sinema is up by over 30,000 at this point. Cook Political Report went ahead a projected Sinema the winner last night.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Projection: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) has defeated Rep. Martha McSally (R) in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AZSEN?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AZSEN</a>. This thing has been over for a while.</p>— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) <a href="https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1061773342112247808?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 12, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

Irish YJ

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Sinema is up by over 30,000 at this point. Cook Political Report went ahead a projected Sinema the winner last night.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Projection: Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) has defeated Rep. Martha McSally (R) in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AZSEN?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AZSEN</a>. This thing has been over for a while.</p>— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) <a href="https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1061773342112247808?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 12, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Blue hair vote from Sun City was underwhelming this year lol..
 

Legacy

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Nice site to keep up on the races still undecided, which is updated.

We’re Tracking The Unresolved Midterm Races (538)

And on Maine's "ranked choice" voting system. and how that race is going.

Ranked-Choice Tally Resumes In Maine's 2nd District Race As Poliquin Seeks To Stop It (mainepublic)

After updated vote counting in Utah's 4th District from Salt Lake County, Rep Mia Love (R) is now less than 900 votes behind Salt Lake City mayor, Ben McAdams (D). Next update on Friday which the Secr of State says “I’m sure there will be more [ballots left to count] after Friday,. We’ll be done with the bulk of it by Friday."
 
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Legacy

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To follow up on our discussion about voter IDs, walking to polling stations, and ND's law:

A New North Dakota Law Threatened Native American Votes. They Responded By Turning Out in Historic Numbers

image


north-dakota-native-american-turnout


and,
Meet the Native American Woman Who Beat the Sponsor of North Dakota’s ID Law

The first few paragraphs:
In the end, the Native American tribes of North Dakota could not save their preferred candidate, Senator Heidi Heitkamp, from a double-digit loss.

But galvanized by anger over the state’s voter ID law and aided by the intensive efforts of tribal leaders and advocacy groups, they turned out for last week’s election in numbers unprecedented even for a presidential election, much less a midterm.

In Sioux County, where the Standing Rock Indian Reservation is, turnout was up 105 percent from the last midterm elections in 2014 and 17 percent from the 2016 presidential election, according to data from the North Dakota secretary of state’s office. In Rolette County, home to the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians, it was up 62 percent from 2014 and 33 percent from 2016. In Benson County, home to the Spirit Lake Nation, it was up 52 percent from 2014 and 10 percent from 2016.

One of the most striking results of the night, though, came far from the reservations: in a normally Republican district in the Fargo area, where Ruth Buffalo became the first Native American Democratic woman elected to the North Dakota Legislature. She did it by unseating State Representative Randy Boehning, the primary sponsor of the very voter ID law Native Americans had feared would disenfranchise them.

For all the symbolic resonance of her victory, Ms. Buffalo, a public health professional with three master’s degrees, campaigned entirely on local issues — and her win underscored how partisan divisions can be scrambled when the national hot buttons are removed from the conversation.

“Ruth ran not as necessarily a Native American woman, but as a woman in Fargo who wanted to talk about issues that were affecting her community,” said Scott McNeil, executive director of the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party. Mr. Boehning did not respond to a request for comment.
 
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Irish YJ

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So updates to mid terms....

GA Gov - Abrams concedes, but says it not a concession. Says democracy failed GA..... she doesn't make the typical phone call to the Kemp....

FL Gov - while the race is numerically over, and Desantis will be certified next week, Gillum still unwilling to concede....

FL Senate - Dems lawyers tried to argue a write in vote for Willie Nelson was really a vote for Bill Nelson... this after arguing that confirmed non-citizen votes should count.
 

Legacy

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I would expect that the Fla and Ga races go to Reps. Of the seven House seats that are still officially undecided, five are expected to go to Reps.

That includes Mia Love's (Repub) district, Utah 4th - her first lead since election day.

Mia Love jumps ahead of Ben McAdams by 419 votes after new vote totals in Utah, Salt Lake counties

Thousands of provisional ballots remain uncounted in the district ahead of both counties' official canvass Tuesday. The 0.16 percent spread as of Friday afternoon was within the margin of a recount.

The runoff for the Senate seat in Mississippi will be held on Nov 27th.
 
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Sea Turtle

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So updates to mid terms....

GA Gov - Abrams concedes, but says it not a concession. Says democracy failed GA..... she doesn't make the typical phone call to the Kemp....

FL Gov - while the race is numerically over, and Desantis will be certified next week, Gillum still unwilling to concede....

FL Senate - Dems lawyers tried to argue a write in vote for Willie Nelson was really a vote for Bill Nelson... this after arguing that confirmed non-citizen votes should count.

They showed a ballot in Fox this AM of a Florida ballot. Both circles were filled in for Nelson and Scott, a third circle was filled in with Gillum written next to it with an exclamation point and smiley face drawn next to it.

Florida voting. You can't make this stuff up
 

Irish YJ

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They showed a ballot in Fox this AM of a Florida ballot. Both circles were filled in for Nelson and Scott, a third circle was filled in with Gillum written next to it with an exclamation point and smiley face drawn next to it.

Florida voting. You can't make this stuff up

Not going to lie. I've wrote in some pretty wacky names when faced with the choice of two shit candidates. Lou Holtz and Clint Eastwood have received a few of my votes over the years... Almost did it in the last presidential when Claire Underwood was under major consideration...
 

NorthDakota

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Gillum would have got nothing accomplished as governor. I only mildly cared if he won/lost. Rick Scott was the big win. Taking out a pre-9/11 incumbent, not an easy task.
 

Irish YJ

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Gillum would have got nothing accomplished as governor. I only mildly cared if he won/lost. Rick Scott was the big win. Taking out a pre-9/11 incumbent, not an easy task.

Scott was the biggee, but you want a gov going into 2020

FL is a shit show though... I can't believe they haven't cleaned up their act after all the election F ups.
 

Legacy

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The breakdowns of voters with turnout, demographics, geographic areas, and types of voters are coming in. (For those interested, I'll share these.)

The 2018 midterm vote: Divisions by race, gender, education (Pew)

The 2018 Midterms, In 4 Charts (538)

Of the states bordering Mexico where immigration issues are of concern in addition to economic ones and current policies,
- California is overwhelmingly blue,
- all NM state and federal seats are held by Dems,
- Arizona - blues made in-roads but, the Phoenix, Gov and legislature are red but becoming a 52-48% division. Tucson area is blue but rural Arizona on either side is red. As noted, the Dems flipped one Senate seat.
- Texas remains red in state legislature but less so. Early voting was huge. The top six urban with their suburban areas voted blue with Fort Worth flipping the Dems. Rural Texas was overwhelmingly red.
Analysis: The neglected Texans responsible for 2018’s GOP wins

Good review from 538:
What Really Happened In Texas
Over 8.3 million Texans voted in the 2018 midterm elections. It’s an astounding figure, especially considering that about 4.6 million voted in the midterms just four years ago. That difference — almost 3.7 million — says a lot about the changing face of the Lone Star State, but Tuesday’s result says more. Yes, Texas is growing, but as of 2018, it’s still red and still likes Ted.

Number of young and new voters surges in Texas early voting:
Texan voters under 30 have already seen a 477-percent increase from the 2014 midterm elections.


Hundreds of thousands of new residents are moving into Texas every year, choosing to live in fast-growing cities and suburbs around the state’s four largest metropolitan areas. Six of the nation’s 10 fastest-growing counties are in Texas. About one in every 10 Texas residents did not live in the state six years ago. Additionally, the areas in Texas bordering Mexico voted mostly blue.
 
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ACamp1900

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these stickers and t-shirts are very very popular
il_570xN.1590229547_bs30.jpg

Yeah, I've had funny run ins with people over the years while visiting both Texas and Missouri... they don't much care for our kind out them ways... El Paso isn't as bad though...
 

Irish YJ

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Yeah, I've had funny run ins with people over the years while visiting both Texas and Missouri... they don't much care for our kind out them ways... El Paso isn't as bad though...

I have two close friends in TX. One in EP, one in Dallas (although he bounces between there and some xxxxx-falls place). The EP buddy is a transplant from IN who moved in the early 90s, and the DFW guy has a long TX lineage (father was an oil man, my buddy still has wells). Both have those stickers.

EP is becoming the new Austin...

I have to think this would hurt their supporters more than the people they think it will bother. I doubt most of the Kemp supporters will be upset...

Most Rs don't like Kemp all that much, they just could never vote for Abrams. She's pretty far left crazy. A moderate dem would have won IMO. To your point though... ATL has become a big movie/TV town. It was already pretty big with music. But yes, nobody really cares what some B-movie has beens are doing. Tyler Perry's studios (and others) will still be filled to the max. I don't see TWD leaving lol.
 

Irish YJ

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Hyde Smith takes it early, and easily.
Thought it would be another close, drama filled, shit show.
 

Irish YJ

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along the lines of the "don't Cali my Texas" stickers and shirts, a buddy sent me this...

dont-new-york-florida-shirt.jpg
 

Legacy

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Good article from Nate Silver at 538.
Trump’s Base Isn’t Enough

There shouldn’t be much question about whether 2018 was a wave election. Of course it was a wave. You could endlessly debate the wave’s magnitude, depending on how much you focus on the number of votes versus the number of seats, the House versus the Senate versus governorships, and so forth. Personally, I’d rank the 2018 wave a tick behind both 1994, which represented a historic shift after years of Democratic dominance of the House, and 2010, which reflected an especially ferocious shift against then-President Barack Obama after he’d been elected in a landslide two years earlier. But I’d put 2018 a bit ahead of most other modern wave elections, such as 2006 and 1982. Your mileage may vary.

In another important respect, however, the 2018 wave was indisputably unlike any other in recent midterm history: It came with exceptionally high turnout. Turnout is currently estimated at 116 million voters, or 49.4 percent of the voting-eligible population. That’s an astounding number; only 83 million people voted in 2014, by contrast.

SILVER-TRUMPBASE-1119-11.png


Should the last race, California 21st, go to the Democrat, they would flip forty seats in the House.
 

ACamp1900

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I have two close friends in TX. One in EP, one in Dallas (although he bounces between there and some xxxxx-falls place). The EP buddy is a transplant from IN who moved in the early 90s, and the DFW guy has a long TX lineage (father was an oil man, my buddy still has wells). Both have those stickers.

EP is becoming the new Austin...

I was at a bar outside Columbia Missouri summer of 2000 ( I was working on the team rebuilding the football stadium)... and met a nice group of people, it was like two couples and an another friend. We are chating it up, having a great time. One of the guys asks me where I'm from. I say California, they assume the city in Missouri... I realize this about a minute later and clarify, "No California state, I'm from Los Angeles..."... conversation needed right there, they all got up and moved to another part of the bar, not another word was spoken... true story.
 

irishog77

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I was at a bar outside Columbia Missouri summer of 2000 ( I was working on the team rebuilding the football stadium)... and met a nice group of people, it was like two couples and an another friend. We are chating it up, having a great time. One of the guys asks me where I'm from. I say California, they assume the city in Missouri... I realize this about a minute later and clarify, "No California state, I'm from Los Angeles..."... conversation needed right there, they all got up and moved to another part of the bar, not another word was spoken... true story.

It probably had more to do with the fact that you were wearing a George Micheal shirt and vagina hat and playing a robust game of pocket pool while cat-calling all the fatties as they walked by than you being from cali.
 

ACamp1900

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It probably had more to do with the fact that you were wearing a George Micheal shirt and vagina hat and playing a robust game of pocket pool while cat-calling all the fatties as they walked by than you being from cali.

Never considered all that,....
 
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