2018 Midterm Elections

[Sea Turtle]

I can't produce an article right now, but I believe another reason for what was earlier predicted as blue wave (at least in the House) aside from the traditional backlash vote, was that a number of the current Rs are in toss up or even blue areas, so even if they won last time, not certain they would again.

As far as trusting the polls, I don't know what to think either. In 2016, I believe they were wrong for a combination of people didn't want to admit to DJT, Rs being less likely to respond to polls traditionally got even more so then, under sampling of Rs, and last minute flips or no shows because HRC being HRC.

You forgot the Russians.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Every poll (other than like a USC-LA Times poll or something) was way off base. RCP, 538, etc. I just don't trust the polling companies.

Internal polls are best. GOP pollsters feel 'a little better' about things but that's 'better' from depressed.

 

[Irish YJ]

You forgot the Russians.

It's a wash this time around. The Chinese are hating on Trump, and the Russians still love him... Hoping NK may push the good guys over the edge!

 

[Irish YJ]

more angry mob....
in this one, pro-life peaceful protester attacked by pro-choice "progressive"

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[Legacy]

If there is a blue wave, women will drive it

'We’ve never seen anything like this': GOP overwhelmed by Democratic cash

 

[ickythump1225]

Democrats are getting their pockets stuffed with cash from NYC and California. Locally the Democrat candidate for Senate, Jacky Rosen, has received around 4-5 million from NY and California donors. Beto Rourke is getting funded big league by out of state cash. This is exactly what happened in Alabama. Out of state cash and out of state celebrities made their way to Alabama and propped up Doug Jones.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">As Joe Kennedy drives Beto to campaign events, Robert DeNiro embraces Beto as the liberal Dem’s preferred 2020 presidential candidate. If only Boston and California could vote in Texas elections.... <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ThankGodWeAreTexas?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ThankGodWeAreTexas</a> <a href="https://t.co/6z17Dl6IqS">https://t.co/6z17Dl6IqS</a></p>— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) <a href="https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1051281745918742528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
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[Irish YJ]

If there is a blue wave, women will drive it

'We’ve never seen anything like this': GOP overwhelmed by Democratic cash

yup. soros has deep pockets

 

[Irish YJ]

Democrats are getting their pockets stuffed with cash from NYC and California. Locally the Democrat candidate for Senate, Jacky Rosen, has received around 4-5 million from NY and California donors. Beto Rourke is getting funded big league by out of state cash. This is exactly what happened in Alabama. Out of state cash and out of state celebrities made their way to Alabama and propped up Doug Jones.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">As Joe Kennedy drives Beto to campaign events, Robert DeNiro embraces Beto as the liberal Dem’s preferred 2020 presidential candidate. If only Boston and California could vote in Texas elections.... <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ThankGodWeAreTexas?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ThankGodWeAreTexas</a> <a href="https://t.co/6z17Dl6IqS">https://t.co/6z17Dl6IqS</a></p>— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) <a href="https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1051281745918742528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Bob makes me sad. So strong in the 70s

 

[ickythump1225]

Yeah man. 2016 changed the American landscape permanently. Arnold Schwarzenegger was a personal hero of mine. He is a shell of himself now. He most recently was apologizing for coining the phrase "girly man." Sad!

 

[Irish YJ]

I think even Cali Clint Eastwood is still holding strong. I don't see him ever giving in.

 

[irishog77]

If there is a blue wave, women will drive it

'We’ve never seen anything like this': GOP overwhelmed by Democratic cash

Don't you want to abolish pesky little things like the Electoral College and limit the amount of money people can contribute to politicians?

But people in california sending money to beto is good, right, because those people in california know what's best for Texans?

 

[ickythump1225]

Can't have the proles deciding things for themselves, they may get it wrong!

 

[connor_in]

Opinion
Democrats Are Blowing It, Again
Liberals have become Donald Trump’s unwitting allies.

 

[loomis41973]

One would think with all the tears from the left they could manage more than a blue drought. Feckless libs.

 

[connor_in]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Check out this video:<br><br>“How White Liberals Really View Black Voters”<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/VoterID?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#VoterID</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/VoterSupression?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#VoterSupression</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/jjauthor?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@jjauthor</a> <a href="https://t.co/oZ689dAfsy">pic.twitter.com/oZ689dAfsy</a></p>— Adrian Norman (@madriannorman) <a href="https://twitter.com/madriannorman/status/1051490214407954432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
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[connor_in]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The first <a href="https://twitter.com/CNN?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CNN</a> numbers for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination just released this morning:<br><br>Biden 33%<br>Sanders 13%<br>Harris 9%<br>Warren 8%<br>Booker 5%<br>Kerry 5%<br>Bloomberg 4%<br>O’Rourke 4%<br>Holder 3%<br>Garcetti 2%<br>Avenatti 1%<br>Gillibrand 1%<br>Klobuchar 1%<br>Patrick 1%<br>Bullock <1%<br>Delaney <1%</p>— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) <a href="https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1051479886873985029?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
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[ickythump1225]

Encouraging news:

Sen. Heller leads Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) by seven points—48 to 41 percent—in an Emerson College poll. Eight percent of Nevadans remain undecided, and the margin of error is 4.2 points, which puts Heller’s lead above the margin of error.

The Nevada Senate candidates both have polarizing favorability numbers. Forty-two percent of Nevadans have a favorable opinion of Sen. Heller, compared to 46 percent of Nevadans who have a negative view of the Nevada Republican. Rep. Rosen has a 45 percent unfavorable rating and a 44 percent favorable rating.

Heller’s Senate seat serves as one of the most contentious Senate seats that Republicans hope to hold in the November midterm elections. Previous polls from the New York Times and NBC News have put Heller only ahead by two points, and the Real Clear Politics polling average has put Heller’s re-election campaign ahead of Rosen by 1.7 points.

In the Nevada governor’s race, Republican Adam Laxalt leads Democrat Steve Sisolak by five points, which puts Laxalt’s lead beyond the survey’s 4.2 percent margin of error. Eleven percent of Nevadans remain undecided.

Meanwhile, in Nevada’s Third Congressional District race, Democrat Susie Lee leads Nevada businessman Danny Tarkanian by only two points. Eighteen percent of Nevadans remain undecided, and the poll has a 7.6 point margin of error, making the race a virtual dead heat.

On Breitbart News Saturday, Tarkanian said his congressional race represents the “best chance to take back a Democrat seat,” which would make it even harder for Democrats to retake the House. Democrats need to gain 24 seats in the midterm elections to achieve a one-seat majority.

“Nancy Pelosi helped recruit her to run. She’s raised her millions of dollars. She’s raised twice as much money as the incumbent race for the last election,” Tarkanian said.

Tarkanian explained that House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) helped build Rep. Rosen’s campaign from the ground up.

In other Nevada congressional races, Rep. Mark Amodei leads by 23 percent, while his opponent, Clint Koble, has 16 percent support in Nevada’s Second District. In Nevada’s Fourth District, Democrat Steven Horsford has 36 percent support, while Republican Cresent Hardy has 34 percent support, and 23 percent of voters remain undecided. The margin of error is 8.1 percent.

Republicans have surged across several polls during and after the Supreme Court nomination process of Judge Brett Kavanaugh, which some pundits have called the “Kavanaugh effect.” A recent NBC News survey found that Republicans across the nation have matched Democrat interest in the midterm election.

Former White House chief of staff Reince Priebus recently contended that the Kavanaugh effect will give Republicans an extra boost in the midterm elections.

“Something incredible has happened over the last couple of weeks, and it’s called the Kavanaugh effect on Republican voters,” said Priebus.

“Before Kavanaugh, Democrats were at a ten [in enthusiasm] to defeat Trump. Republicans were at like a six. They were happy with the economy,” Priebus added. “They were happy with the wins that we had. But they weren’t at the level they needed to be. Well, now they are at a ten. So the effect is the Democrats didn’t go above ten. They are at ten. And now, the Republicans are at a ten. And so you get the juice that you need to run the machinery.”

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2018/10/15/nevada-turns-democrats-post-kavanaugh/

 

[BGIF]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The first <a href="https://twitter.com/CNN?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CNN</a> numbers for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination just released this morning:<br><br>Biden 33%<br>Sanders 13%<br>Harris 9%<br>Warren 8%<br>Booker 5%<br>Kerry 5%<br>Bloomberg 4%<br>O’Rourke 4%<br>Holder 3%<br>Garcetti 2%<br>Avenatti 1%<br>Gillibrand 1%<br>Klobuchar 1%<br>Patrick 1%<br>Bullock <1%<br>Delaney <1%</p>— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) <a href="https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1051479886873985029?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Clinton? ... Clinton? ...

 

[Irish YJ]

Clinton? ... Clinton? ...

I bet she jumps in the discussion after midterms.

 

[Legacy]

Poll: Democrats Surging in Pennsylvania:
Health care is powering a blue comeback.

Pennsylvania was the linchpin of Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, but it could be ground zero of Democrats’ 2018 comeback. Not only are the incumbent Democratic senator and governor prohibitive favorites to win reelection, but Democrats could also pick up as many as a half-dozen congressional seats — roughly a quarter of the seats the party needs nationwide to win back the House.

Fewer than two years after Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to carry Pennsylvania since 1988, a new POLITICO/AARP poll shows both Sen. Bob Casey and Gov. Tom Wolf with double-digit leads over their GOP challengers. And Democrats have a slight edge on the generic congressional ballot — which, combined with a new, court-imposed congressional-district map unwinding GOP gerrymandering, portends major gains in next month‘s elections.

The top issue for voters in Pennsylvania is health care: Nearly 3 in 4, 74 percent, say it’s “very important” to their vote in November, out-rating the economy and jobs (72 percent), Social Security (67 percent) and national security and terrorism (65 percent). For voters 50 and older, Social Security (81 percent) only slightly outpaces health care (79 percent).

In the Senate race, Casey leads Rep. Lou Barletta by 15 percentage points, 47 percent to 32 percent. Casey leads Barletta — a four-term congressman who forged his political identity as an immigration hard-liner as the then-mayor of Hazelton, Pa. — by a similar margin among voters 50 and older, 49 percent to 34 percent.

Casey is one of 10 Senate Democrats seeking reelection this year in a state Trump barely won in 2016. But like his colleagues in other Midwestern states — Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin — he is a strong favorite for reelection. (The POLITICO/AARP poll was conducted October 1-2 — during the controversial Supreme Court nomination fight of now-Justice Brett Kavanaugh — a time considered a high-water mark for Republican enthusiasm.)

Wolf, meanwhile, has a 12-point lead over former state Sen. Scott Wagner, 48 percent to 36 percent. Wagner has struggled to gain traction in his effort to unseat Wolf. The Republican released a Facebook video last week, in which he tells the incumbent, “Gov. Wolf — let me tell you — between now and November 6, you better put a catcher’s mask on your face because I’m going to stomp all over your face with golf spikes.”

With both statewide races looking less competitive, the focus in the state is shifting to congressional elections. Democrats have already started to chip away at the GOP’s domination of the delegation: In March, Democrat Conor Lamb won a special election to replace a Republican, former Rep. Tim Murphy, who resigned in scandal last year.

Their chances to make further gains were turbocharged earlier this year, when the state Supreme Court ordered the implementation of a new congressional-district map. It found the old one, drawn by Republicans after the 2010 election, was a gerrymander so egregious that it violated the state constitution. In the three elections held under the old map — 2012, 2014 and 2016 — Republicans won 13 of the state’s 18 congressional districts, even in 2012, when Democratic candidates, on aggregate, won more votes than Republicans.

The POLITICO/AARP survey shows Democrats with a 3-point lead on the generic ballot among all voters, 43 percent to 40 percent. The two parties are running neck-and-neck among voters 50 and older. Currently, eight House districts are rated by POLITICO as “solid” or “likely” Democratic, while six are “solid Republican.” Another four seats are firmly in play.

Health care is dominating many of these races. Both Casey and Wolf — like Democrats all across the country — have hammered their GOP opponents on health care issues. Casey’s latest ad hammers Barletta for voting to repeal the Affordable Care Act and threatening protections for Pennsylvanians with pre-existing conditions.

It’s a marked reversal from previous election cycles, when Republicans used the then-unpopular health care law as a cudgel against Democrats. But now, the POLITICO/AARP poll shows more Pennsylvania voters support the law, 47 percent, than oppose it, 41 percent.

With both statewide races looking less competitive, the focus in the state is shifting to congressional elections. Democrats have already started to chip away at the GOP’s domination of the delegation: In March, Democrat Conor Lamb won a special election to replace a Republican, former Rep. Tim Murphy, who resigned in scandal last year.

Their chances to make further gains were turbocharged earlier this year, when the state Supreme Court ordered the implementation of a new congressional-district map. It found the old one, drawn by Republicans after the 2010 election, was a gerrymander so egregious that it violated the state constitution. In the three elections held under the old map — 2012, 2014 and 2016 — Republicans won 13 of the state’s 18 congressional districts, even in 2012, when Democratic candidates, on aggregate, won more votes than Republicans.

Nine of the thirteen of Pennsylvania's Republican Representatives voted for Trump's replacement plan of the Affordable Care Act. Three of the four incumbent Republican Reps who voted against the replacement bill are not seeking reelection. The fourth is down by seven points in the latest poll to the Democratic candidate. One of those three not seeking reelection, Charlie Dent, who co-chairs the Tuesday Group, a caucus of moderate Republicans, called the replacement bill "haphazardly constructed and hastily considered." and also said

"I'm disappointed that the House passed a bill that I think is going to increase health insurance costs for too many Americans, particularly low- and moderate-income Americans. It will leave too many uncovered, and the bill will weaken protections for those with pre-existing conditions. I hope the Senate can do better."

Pennsylvania Insurance Department - Affordable Care Act in Pennsylvania Fact Sheet

 

[loomis41973]

Avenatti with 1%. Wonder where he will poll after paying TRUMPS legal bills and going broke. Slimeball

 

[Irish YJ]

Avenatti with 1%. Wonder where he will poll after paying TRUMPS legal bills and going broke. Slimeball

But he's confident he'll win in the appeal....

I'm confident, he'll just run Trump's legal bills up, and have to pay more...

The guy just needs to stay in the world of porn law... that's gotta be a lucrative space. and the fringe benefits have to be second to none..

 

[ACamp1900]

A porn lawyer is considered a more viable option than Clinton?? Woof

 

[loomis41973]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The first <a href="https://twitter.com/CNN?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CNN</a> numbers for 2020 Democratic presidential nomination just released this morning:<br><br>Biden 33%<br>Sanders 13%<br>Harris 9%<br>Warren 8%<br>Booker 5%<br>Kerry 5%<br>Bloomberg 4%<br>O’Rourke 4%<br>Holder 3%<br>Garcetti 2%<br>Avenatti 1%<br>Gillibrand 1%<br>Klobuchar 1%<br>Patrick 1%<br>Bullock <1%<br>Delaney <1%</p>— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) <a href="https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1051479886873985029?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Hell of a group the Dems have there.

 

[Irish YJ]

#s 4 thru 5 would be hella fun

 

[Circa]

Are people really still trying to figure the cat and mouse games out? What's the latest story with gerrymandering? Why are grown 'human beings still In such an intellectual debate over things out of their control?... and the obviousness of what will never be in their control.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Are people really still trying to figure the cat and mouse games out? What's the latest story with gerrymandering? Why are grown 'human beings still In such an intellectual debate over things out of their control?... and the obviousness of what will never be in their control.

When you imagine the second half of your paragraph coming from an Indian prophet on peyote, it's pretty far out

 

[IrishLax]

538 predicting 84% chance Dems take the House, 80% chance Republicans retain control of the Senate. Dems expected to have a margin of 30+ seats in the House, Republicans expected to have a 51-49 edge in the Senate.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=midterms-header

 

[Irish#1]

What a blunder.


Washington (CNN)A woman who was identified without her permission as a survivor of abuse in a campaign ad for Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp said Thursday she doesn't know what the senator "could do that would make it better."

Lexi Zhorela, a 24-year-old self-identified liberal from Bismarck, North Dakota, opened up about being in the ad to CNN's Erica Hill on "New Day."
"I don't know what she [Heitkamp] could do that would make it better," Zhorela said. "I know that's why a lot of the people in this situation are reaching out to seek legal counsel because of, you know, what she did is wrong."
She added that she thinks "it's very reckless" that Heitkamp didn't read and approve the document before it was published. "Somebody messed up," she said.
Earlier this week, Heitkamp, looking to slam her Republican opponent, Rep. Kevin Cramer, for suggesting "tough people" do not identify with the national conversation around sexual assault and the treatment of women, ran an open letter to Cramer to show him "what prairie tough looks like."
The letter featured over 120 names at the bottom, but several women, including Zhorela, have come forward to say they were either included without their permission or were not survivors of "domestic violence, sexual assault, or rape," as specified in the letter.
Heitkamp issued a personal apology to the women on Tuesday.
"You know, the names that didn't want to be out there are already out there for the world to see. You can't really retract that, the damage is done," Zhorela said.
Heitkamp's office told CNN Thursday that they planned to reach out to Zhorela, something Zhorela said she was already told before.
Zhorela previously told CNN that she no longer plans to vote for Heitkamp. On Thursday, she stuck to that position, telling Hill that "as of right now, she definitely lost my vote."

 

[Irish YJ]

Just saw a piece on HRC, saying the Dems need to perform an intervention and get her the F off television, and off the tour with her hubby... as she's not helping the dems.

I hope they let her stay. Waiting patiently for her to announce she's running in 2020 after the mid terms.