2018 Bowl Projections

Armyirish47 · Aug 28, 2018

It's never too early to speculate on where game #13 will be played! The ESPN.com has conveniently updated their bowl projections. See the free article at the link below.

College football preseason bowl projections

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Dec. 29, noon (ESPN)

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Sherman: Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

I'm guessing the only way these projections hold is if we go 9 - 3. 10 wins should get us a better bowl, and 11 or more would be playoff bound.

zelezo vlk · Aug 28, 2018

Stay away from Meyer

ShawneeIrish · Aug 28, 2018

Better bowl? I think the Peach Bowl is a playoff bowl and if not its the best of the rest.

Armyirish47 · Aug 28, 2018

ShawneeIrish said:
Better bowl? I think the Peach Bowl is a playoff bowl and if not its the best of the rest.

You are correct, I was thinking Fiesta Bowl was better but that's not actually true. So maybe they are thinking 10 wins for these projections then?

Here's a handy primer.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/8/1/17637074/bowl-tie-ins-conferences-2018-season

wizards8507 · Aug 31, 2018

ESPN: The only 14 teams that can win the College Football Playoff

Playoff Predictor: Clemson has best shot, Notre Dame could surprise

1. Clemson (66% playoff, 24% title)
2. Alabama (47% playoff, 14% title)
3. Georgia (45% playoff, 13% title)
4. Notre Dame (42% playoff, 10% title)

ESPN Analytics is high on that green Kool Aid, but tell me more about how everyone in the sports media hates ND.

IrishLion · Aug 31, 2018

wizards8507 said:
ESPN: The only 14 teams that can win the College Football Playoff

Playoff Predictor: Clemson has best shot, Notre Dame could surprise

1. Clemson (66% playoff, 24% title)
2. Alabama (47% playoff, 14% title)
3. Georgia (45% playoff, 13% title)
4. Notre Dame (42% playoff, 10% title)

ESPN Analytics is high on that green Kool Aid, but tell me more about how everyone in the sports media hates ND.

I don't think anyone 'hates' ND except for Mark May (Paul Finebaum even has respect for Notre Dame, but he hates Brian Kelly), but the computers favoring ND early based on last year and returning percentage of production isn't an indictment or an exoneration of perceived biases from media personalities.

wizards8507 · Aug 31, 2018

IrishLion said:
I don't think anyone 'hates' ND except for Mark May (Paul Finebaum even has respect for Notre Dame, but he hates Brian Kelly), but the computers favoring ND early based on last year and returning percentage of production isn't an indictment or an exoneration of perceived biases from media personalities.

You know that and I know that, but I've seen many times on this board that ESPN's FPI formula, for example, is "biased" against ND.

IrishLion · Aug 31, 2018

wizards8507 said:
You know that and I know that, but I've seen many times on this board that ESPN's FPI formula, for example, is "biased" against ND.

I don't think it's biased against ND, but I do think it favors the "snake eating its own tail" scheduling that the SEC benefits from, largely because FPI is heavily influenced by the previous season at the begging of each year. I understand why; you have to include returning production, and the only way to weight that analytically is to consider the previous season. But that was a benefit to the SEC because of their "echo chamber" setup, in that they beat each other up and get huge credit for it.

However, I also think the CFP is slowly shifting the data in the background. The SEC's inherent advantages are slowly going out the window as the top four teams matching up every season throws two HUGE extra data points into the mix, and surprise surprise, it has made the computers realize that the "echo chamber" of the SEC isn't as far ahead of the rest of the world as they formerly seemed to be.

wizards8507 · Aug 31, 2018

IrishLion said:
I don't think it's biased against ND, but I do think it favors the "snake eating its own tail" scheduling that the SEC benefits from, largely because FPI is heavily influenced by the previous season at the begging of each year. I understand why; you have to include returning production, and the only way to weight that analytically is to consider the previous season. But that was a benefit to the SEC because of their "echo chamber" setup, in that they beat each other up and get huge credit for it.

However, I also think the CFP is slowly shifting the data in the background. The SEC's inherent advantages are slowly going out the window as the top four teams matching up every season throws two HUGE extra data points into the mix, and surprise surprise, it has made the computers realize that the "echo chamber" of the SEC isn't as far ahead of the rest of the world as they formerly seemed to be.

SEC bias is an outdated conspiracy theory that was disproven over the last two seasons, during which the SEC was absolutely raked over the coals. It's not SEC bias anymore, it's just Alabama bias (and Alabama has earned it).

IrishLion · Aug 31, 2018

wizards8507 said:
SEC bias is an outdated conspiracy theory that was disproven over the last two seasons, during which the SEC was absolutely raked over the coals. It's not SEC bias anymore, it's just Alabama bias (and Alabama has earned it).

That's actually basically what I'm saying, except it was not a conspiracy before the CFP... it was real. The SEC would get the benefit of the doubt for beating each other up, whereas most conferences didn't get that same benefit. It was extra ridiculous because the SEC collectively plays the fewest games against Power 5 competition out of the power conferences, but the built-in excuse was "it's more of a grind, so it's still a comparable schedule."

The playoff has made people realize that the SEC is fallible. I think a large part of that is the extra data that the playoff is putting into the system in terms of 'Top 10 Matchups' data.

irishog77 · Aug 31, 2018

wizards8507 said:
ESPN: The only 14 teams that can win the College Football Playoff

Playoff Predictor: Clemson has best shot, Notre Dame could surprise

1. Clemson (66% playoff, 24% title)
2. Alabama (47% playoff, 14% title)
3. Georgia (45% playoff, 13% title)
4. Notre Dame (42% playoff, 10% title)

ESPN Analytics is high on that green Kool Aid, but tell me more about how everyone in the sports media hates ND.

Oh, ok. Yes, one single post displaying a computer's data clearly dispels any notion of bias from individual people hired by a network that is contractually tied to a conference.

Your post is #fakenews.

wizards8507 · Aug 31, 2018

irishog77 said:
Oh, ok. Yes, one single post displaying a computer's data clearly dispels any notion of bias from individual people hired by a network that is contractually tied to a conference.

Your post is #fakenews.

ESPN is contractually tied to every conference.

The notion that the SEC Network is some kind of cash cow is... not accurate. Disney would MUCH rather have you watching the 3:30 on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2 than whatever garbage is on SECN in that time slot.

irishog77 · Aug 31, 2018

wizards8507 said:
ESPN is contractually tied to every conference.

The notion that the SEC Network is some kind of cash cow is... not accurate. Disney would MUCH rather have you watching the 3:30 on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2 than whatever garbage is on SECN in that time slot.

espn has no contract with any other conference like they do with the sec. Their partnership is truly unique.

I don't know if it's a cash cow or not (that's for number crunchers like yourself to discern).

I do know, however, that a blurb showing computer data regarding 4 schools does zero to disprove or dispel any idea that espn routinely demonstrates bias, in all their endeavors, but particularly ones with their media and broadcast partners.

ACamp1900 · Aug 31, 2018

How ESPN reacts to "SEC Bias" claims:

wizards8507 · Aug 31, 2018

irishog77 said:
espn has no contract with any other conference like they do with the sec. Their partnership is truly unique.

ACC Network (TV channel)

Longhorn Network

ESPN actually has the worst arrangement with the SEC of all the power conferences. CBS gets the first pick of the SEC "game of the week" every single week.

irishog77 · Aug 31, 2018

wizards8507 said:
ACC Network (TV channel)

Longhorn Network

ESPN actually has the worst arrangement with the SEC of all the power conferences. CBS gets the first pick of the SEC "game of the week" every single week.

Are the Texas Longhorns a conference?

Rack Em · Aug 31, 2018

irishog77 said:
Are the Texas Longhorns a conference?

irishog77 · Aug 31, 2018

UT conferences so hard.

zelezo vlk · Aug 31, 2018

CBS gets first pick of the games, which is why it's important for ESPN to shill that the conference itself is so awesome, making the lesser games more appealing

Ndaccountant · Aug 31, 2018

Armyirish47 · Sep 4, 2018

With Week 1 in the books the bowl projections have shifted a bit. The only change for us according to the ESPN.com article linked below is the opponent.

College football bowl projections after Week 1

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Dec. 29, noon (ESPN)

Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Auburn
Sherman: LSU vs. Notre Dame

College Football News agrees with ESPN.

https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/09/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-picks-after-week-1/2

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Saturday, December 29th
12:00, ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
At-large vs. At-large
Projection: Notre Dame vs. Auburn

10 - 2 floor is probably driving these projections looking at where our opponents are being projected.

Armyirish47 · Sep 17, 2018

Finally getting some separation in the predictions.

College Football News has the Irish back in Nashville for another SEC showdown.
https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/09/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-picks-after-week-3

Music City Bowl
Projection: Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M

ESPN.com disagrees internally, but still have Notre Dame top tier bowling.
College football bowl projections after Week 3

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Bonagura: Washington vs. Notre Dame

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Sherman: Georgia vs. Notre Dame (editors note - no thank you)

CBSSports.com wants the Irish to visit Mickey Mouse.
https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

Camping World Bowl
Notre Dame vs. TCU

ACamp1900 · Sep 17, 2018

Yikes... those last three would be disasters with the state of our team currently.

zelezo vlk · Sep 17, 2018

I don't want any part of playing the Aggies unless they suck ass. Their fans are terrible and everywhere down here.

ACamp1900 · Sep 17, 2018

zelezo vlk said:
I don't want any part of playing the Aggies unless they suck ass. Their fans are terrible and everywhere down here.

You get that too huh??

I've told the story before but I have family all over down there, OU and Longhorn alums... they get along just fine... they like KSU, Tech, OkaSt and other fans well enough. They all openly cheered when A&M left the conference and all agreed their base simply doesn't know how to act... "good riddance" was the overall sentiment.

zelezo vlk · Sep 17, 2018

ACamp1900 said:
You get that too huh??

I've told the story before but I have family all over down there, OU and Longhorn alums... they get along just fine... they like KSU, Tech, OkaSt and other fans well enough. They all openly cheered when A&M left the conference and all agreed their base simply doesn't know how to act... "good riddance" was the overall sentiment.

It's a cult, and they're everywhere. Aggies are thick like cockroaches in Texas

ACamp1900 · Sep 17, 2018

zelezo vlk said:
It's a cult, and they're everywhere. Aggies are thick like cockroaches in Texas

I used to like them as a program... until I spent enough time in Texas to know better.

dublinirish · Sep 17, 2018

zelezo vlk said:
It's a cult, and they're everywhere. Aggies are thick like cockroaches in Texas

there is a reason Mike Leach ran up the score on these asshats when he was at TTU.

stlnd01 · Sep 17, 2018

Armyirish47 said:
Finally getting some separation in the predictions.

College Football News has the Irish back in Nashville for another SEC showdown.
https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/09/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-picks-after-week-3

Music City Bowl
Projection: Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M

ESPN.com disagrees internally, but still have Notre Dame top tier bowling.
College football bowl projections after Week 3

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Bonagura: Washington vs. Notre Dame

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Sherman: Georgia vs. Notre Dame (editors note - no thank you)

CBSSports.com wants the Irish to visit Mickey Mouse.
https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions

Camping World Bowl
Notre Dame vs. TCU

Of the four, I’d say Washington in the Fiesta. But none of those seem like good matchups/settings for us. Georgia in the Peach Bowl could be brutal.

Armyirish47 · Oct 8, 2018

Time for an update after surviving a trip to Virginia! Obviously these are becoming more enjoyable and "win and you're in" is the theme of the week.

Up first, the ESPN.com has a free article placing the Irish in Dallas.

College football bowl projections after Week 6

Cotton Bowl:
Bonagura: Alabama vs. Notre Dame
Sherman: Alabama vs. Notre Dame

College football news doesn't have as rosy an outlook, though they do give us a fun matchup.

https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/10/bowl-projections-college-football-playoff-picks-after-week-6/2

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Projection: Notre Dame vs. Texas

SI.com is agrees with ESPN.com, but gives us a slightly more favorable matchup.

https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/10/08/bowl-projections-matchups-predictions-playoff-rankings

Capital One Orange Bowl
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

CBSsports.com is already questioning the Irish strength of schedule, but reluctantly agrees with ESPN.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-bowl-projections-notre-dame-replaces-oklahoma-in-college-football-playoff/

Cotton Bowl:

Alabama vs. Notre Dame

2018 Bowl Projections

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