I've got ND coming up short in this game. When USC is on, they're great. Their main issue has been inconsistency.
If we get a down USC, we could blow them out but does anyone think they're going to be "down" in a rivalry game? Look what they did to Stanford earlier this year.
When you look at advanced stats, ND and USC have equivocal production on offense but ND has the more impressive defense by a solid margin. USC's defense checks in at #31... decent, but not great. So if I'm operating under the assumption that ND is going to struggle to stop USC, that means ND would need to have a big day on offense to win... Notre Dame has played two very good defenses so far...
Georgia - #10 - horrible game plan, tried to throw it all over the field, 19 points
MSU - #9 - much better game plan, committed to the run, more effective passing from Wimbush, lit them up for 38 points with conservative play/backups in 4th Q
If we do what we did to MSU I could see ND winning something like 41-34... pound the ball on the ground, make enough plays in the passing game to score about 20 points a half. But I think it's more realistic that we lose something like 27-34. The reason I think we struggle to stop USC is that our defensive scheme puts a lot of burden on the CBs to win their individual matchups and USC is uniquely talented to win more of those matchups than they lose. We saw what that guy Gardener did for freaking Miami of Ohio... it's hard not to see USC WRs doing something similar winning contested balls. Conversely, our WRs are not likely to be able to get separation which means USC can load up against the run without fear.
Besides ND winning with offense, the only way I see them getting the job done would be for the DL to have a huge game and create a lot of negative plays forcing USC to be more one-dimensional.