2017 Record Prediction Thread

[NDdomer2]

Not sure if the answer is A or B (probably both) but in my opinion, Kelly is not going anywhere, not of his own volition. Not in college anyway, and the NFL ship may have sailed by now (either way it won't be calling at his port unless we have a good season).
I think that USC chatter at the end of last season was just someone dirtying him up. The timing of it made zero sense otherwise. That said, if/when big college jobs come calling he'd be crazy not to talk with them, just for his own leverage if nothing else. But he'd be equally crazy to actually go. He has actually established a pretty good thing at Notre Dame.
Also if - as was floated a lot here in December - the mutual master plan was one more year and then out, they would have hired an assistant who'd be in position to ascend to the top job. Not seeing that on this staff any time soon.
Obvs another bad season and he's gone. The leash is short st this point. But BK's not acting like a man with one foot out the door, and if we win this year he'll be set for awhile.

so then the question is what is the # of wins that makes him safe and what is goodbye. 8 or less and you have to move on, I would imagine. If he is on track for one of those seasons he would most certainly be getting his feelers out before regular season is over. Which leads me back to the one foot out the door and not finishing a season well.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

My brain says 9-3

My heart says 12-0

My balls say 7-5

 

[NDdomer2]

I don't buy #2 either, but I'll add to #1. I believe it's actually fairly common. But to give an example, PSU went 4-7 in '04 and bounced back the next season going 11-1 and winning the Big 10.

taken from wiki:

The team returned 18 starters from last year's squad. Eight starters returned on offense, led by starting quarterback Michael Robinson

2 more examples from the past 5 years alone:

2012 Auburn:3-9
2013 Auburn:12-2, NCG Appearance

2013 TCU:4-8
2014 TCU: 12-1, NY6 Bowl Win

ND will have it's work cut out, but it's not impossible by any means.

the auburn one is interesting, some consider it the biggest 1 season turn around in football to date. Also was first year for HC Malzahn. Also didn't have an established QB returning from year before. They did have two players taken in first round of that draft.

the 2014 TCU game returned starter at QB in Boykin, starters at RB and WR and many position on D.

I still think turn-arounds like this are more rare than they are the norm, especially for teams with new coordinators and a first year starter at QB.

Add all that in with the unknowns surrounding Kelly. I say 8 wins.

 

[woolybug25]

taken from wiki:



the auburn one is interesting, some consider it the biggest 1 season turn around in football to date. Also was first year for HC Malzahn. Also didn't have an established QB returning from year before. They did have two players taken in first round of that draft.

the 2014 TCU game returned starter at QB in Boykin, starters at RB and WR and many position on D.

I still think turn-arounds like this are more rare than they are the norm, especially for teams with new coordinators and a first year starter at QB.

Add all that in with the unknowns surrounding Kelly. I say 8 wins.

We return 15 starters, eight on offense, and are led by a big time recruit QB that's been on the system. We also return a TON depth guy's that got hurt last year that greatly effected our team last season. We are more alike to that PSU team than not.

 

[NDdomer2]

We return 15 starters, eight on offense, and are led by a big time recruit QB that's been on the system. We also return a TON depth guy's that got hurt last year that greatly effected our team last season. We are more alike to that PSU team than not.

I agree we return a nice amount of guys with PT. That '05 PSU team didnt play anyone worth a shit until Oct. This ND team will have already had to face Georgia and MSU by then (not to mention a pesky BC team on road).

PSU also ended their season with 2/3 at home including a bye the week before that road game. This ND team is 2/3 on road with Navy sandwiched in the middle and no weeks off since mid Oct.

I just think every game on our schedule that "should" be a W is a team that we have recently struggled to beat. (Temple, BC, NC, NCst, Wake, Navy) outside Miami OH.
Our starting QB has career stats of 3/5 passing for 17 yards, 7 carries for 96 for 1 TD (includes 1 58 yard attempt). This is minimal live action.

So while last year 7/8 losses were within 1 possession, I don't see this team turning that around 100% and winning 11 games. I think its more likely its about half of that, putting us around 8 wins with some tough losses.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

I agree we return a nice amount of guys with PT. That '05 PSU team didnt play anyone worth a shit until Oct. This ND team will have already had to face Georgia and MSU by then (not to mention a pesky BC team on road).

PSU also ended their season with 2/3 at home including a bye the week before that road game. This ND team is 2/3 on road with Navy sandwiched in the middle and no weeks off since mid Oct.

I just think every game on our schedule that "should" be a W is a team that we have recently struggled to beat. (Temple, BC, NC, NCst, Wake, Navy) outside Miami OH.
Our starting QB has career stats of 3/5 passing for 17 yards, 7 carries for 96 for 1 TD (includes 1 58 yard attempt). This is minimal live action.

So while last year 7/8 losses were within 1 possession, I don't see this team turning that around 100% and winning 11 games. I think its more likely its about half of that, putting us around 8 wins with some tough losses.

Doesn't the reason for a poor performance matter as much in this conversation?

I don't know about you, but last year was a 9-3 team that got shit all over.

All the returning players with experience (not just the starters) have improved in skill but more importantly strength and conditioning.

The reason I posted my son's prediction is because it follows my own observations. Long, Elko, Balis and Polian are in leading this team. It is following their collective personalities. Kelly is serving the team and his assistants, producing the best possible situation for the Irish.

 

[NDdomer2]

Doesn't the reason for a poor performance matter as much in this conversation?

I don't know about you, but last year was a 9-3 team that got shit all over.

All the returning players with experience (not just the starters) have improved in skill but more importantly strength and conditioning.

The reason I posted my son's prediction is because it follows my own observations. Long, Elko, Balis and Polian are in leading this team. It is following their collective personalities. Kelly is serving the team and his assistants, producing the best possible situation for the Irish.

some would say the dead man walking that lead last years team is still leading this years.

 

[woolybug25]

I agree we return a nice amount of guys with PT. That '05 PSU team didnt play anyone worth a shit until Oct. This ND team will have already had to face Georgia and MSU by then (not to mention a pesky BC team on road).

PSU also ended their season with 2/3 at home including a bye the week before that road game. This ND team is 2/3 on road with Navy sandwiched in the middle and no weeks off since mid Oct.

I just think every game on our schedule that "should" be a W is a team that we have recently struggled to beat. (Temple, BC, NC, NCst, Wake, Navy) outside Miami OH.
Our starting QB has career stats of 3/5 passing for 17 yards, 7 carries for 96 for 1 TD (includes 1 58 yard attempt). This is minimal live action.

So while last year 7/8 losses were within 1 possession, I don't see this team turning that around 100% and winning 11 games. I think its more likely its about half of that, putting us around 8 wins with some tough losses.

Wasn't your original question to how common it was to comeback to win 8+ games? Ha

 

[NDdomer2]

Wasn't your original question to how common it was to comeback to win 8+ games? Ha

it was, and i was given 3 instances, which is not common.

Then you compared this team to the 05 PSU specifically. So i continued on that comparison, and why I don't see us making the same jump.

Was i not following along properly?

 

[ACamp1900]

I sure wish we played a schedule like PSU had in 2005 ... I'd be way more likely to be on board.

 

[woolybug25]

it was, and i was given 3 instances, which is not common.

Then you compared this team to the 05 PSU specifically. So i continued on that comparison, and why I don't see us making the same jump.

Was i not following along properly?

I'm just laughing cuz you then predicted we do just that in your last post. Ha


We gave 3 examples in the last 10ish years. It's not that common for a big time program to only win four games in general. So seems pretty rational to me. Which sounds like you agree... or disagree... I'm not sure at this point.

 

[Me2SouthBend]

2 more examples from the past 5 years alone:

2012 Auburn:3-9
2013 Auburn:12-2, NCG Appearance Bag men came out in force

2013 TCU:4-8
2014 TCU: 12-1, NY6 Bowl Win

ND will have it's work cut out, but it's not impossible by any means. Yes it is, ND doesn't pay $

However...

 

[NDdomer2]

I'm just laughing cuz you then predicted we do just that in your last post. Ha


We gave 3 examples in the last 10ish years. It's not that common for a big time program to only win four games in general. So seems pretty rational to me. Which sounds like you agree... or disagree... I'm not sure at this point.

All those teams that were given as example went beyond 8 games tho. I dont see us doing that. I just wanted to see how often it happens, not necessarily that I didnt think we could do it without someone else having done it before. They arent thoughts dependent on each other, is what I am saying. I just was wondering how often its done in general, especially when you couple the turn around with new qb's.

So I think its possible, maybe even probable for this team, but would seem to fall on the rare occurrence side of history.

 

[NDdomer2]

I sure wish we played a schedule like PSU had in 2005 ... I'd be way more likely to be on board.

there were quite a few ranked teams on that schedule, and most all at the end. Just depends how you feel about the big ten in general if you think the schedule was challenging or not.

 

[stlnd01]

so then the question is what is the # of wins that makes him safe and what is goodbye. 8 or less and you have to move on, I would imagine. If he is on track for one of those seasons he would most certainly be getting his feelers out before regular season is over. Which leads me back to the one foot out the door and not finishing a season well.

I guess I figure if we're on track to win 8, we'll know that by early November and both sides will be moving on. If 10 or more wins we're probably in the playoff hunt until late, so enthusiasm shouldn't be a problem. Eight or nine wins is the gray zone to me, where style points and trajectory matter.

 

[Wild Bill]

Michigan went from 5-7 (3-5 in Big Ten) in 2014 to 10-3 (6-2 in Big Ten) in 2015 with Rudock, who had experience but was a first year starter at Michigan, and 16 returning starters.

I watched a few of their games that year and the recipe seemed fairly simple - focus on fundamentals, keep it simple and beat teams with less talent (win games you should win).

ND can do the same with this roster and coaching staff turnover. Off the top of my head, I'd say we're going to line up with more talent in every game this year except two - USC and Georgia, and both of those games are at home (Stanford may have more talent but it's close).

Just keep it simple and beat who you should beat. Get a couple bounces against Georgia, USC and Stanford and maybe we'll be in the hunt.

 

[NDdomer2]

Michigan went from 5-7 (3-5 in Big Ten) in 2014 to 10-3 (6-2 in Big Ten) in 2015 with Rudock, who had experience but was a first year starter at Michigan, and 16 returning starters.

I watched a few of their games that year and the recipe seemed fairly simple - focus on fundamentals, keep it simple and beat teams with less talent (win games you should win).

ND can do the same with this roster and coaching staff turnover. Off the top of my head, I'd say we're going to line up with more talent in every game this year except two - USC and Georgia, and both of those games are at home (Stanford may have more talent but it's close).

Just keep it simple and beat who you should beat. Get a couple bounces against Georgia, USC and Stanford and maybe we'll be in the hunt.

ND's offensive philosophy play's against the method Michigan used of forcing teams to beat them. Coaching does make a difference as noted in this example and I expect it to matter for us as well (We def. upgraded on D, offense is a who knows, Sanford and Denbrock weren't our issue last year, at least not in my opinion).

It probably sounds like I am down on this team, which I dont think would be accurate. They have the athletes. I like the D coaching. We were in all those games last year and a reasonable person would say we come out on top of our share on those this year.

But everything you hear about the locker room/program chemistry last year is rough and the man at the top hasnt changed, and majority of those guys are still on this team. How do they erase that from memory, or turn it around to a positive in 1 offseason while learning a whole new system/communication style from new coordinators/strength coach.

It's a lot to expect from dudes aged 22 and younger.

 

[Cackalacky]

8-4

lose to UGA, USC, Stanford, and a random underperfoming game because Brian Kelly.

 

[Downinthebend]

ND's offensive philosophy play's against the method Michigan used of forcing teams to beat them. Coaching does make a difference as noted in this example and I expect it to matter for us as well (We def. upgraded on D, offense is a who knows, Sanford and Denbrock weren't our issue last year, at least not in my opinion).

It probably sounds like I am down on this team, which I dont think would be accurate. They have the athletes. I like the D coaching. We were in all those games last year and a reasonable person would say we come out on top of our share on those this year.

But everything you hear about the locker room/program chemistry last year is rough and the man at the top hasnt changed, and majority of those guys are still on this team. How do they erase that from memory, or turn it around to a positive in 1 offseason while learning a whole new system/communication style from new coordinators/strength coach.

It's a lot to expect from dudes aged 22 and younger.

What do you mean by this?

 

[Wild Bill]

ND's offensive philosophy play's against the method Michigan used of forcing teams to beat them. Coaching does make a difference as noted in this example and I expect it to matter for us as well (We def. upgraded on D, offense is a who knows, Sanford and Denbrock weren't our issue last year, at least not in my opinion).

It probably sounds like I am down on this team, which I dont think would be accurate. They have the athletes. I like the D coaching. We were in all those games last year and a reasonable person would say we come out on top of our share on those this year.

But everything you hear about the locker room/program chemistry last year is rough and the man at the top hasnt changed, and majority of those guys are still on this team. How do they erase that from memory, or turn it around to a positive in 1 offseason while learning a whole new system/communication style from new coordinators/strength coach.

It's a lot to expect from dudes aged 22 and younger.

You have a point with philosophy but we do have new blood calling plays and Kelly has shifted his philosophy to win games in the past, namely 2012, so there's a chance he can do it again.

I'm not overly optimistic about this team either but we have some young talent, and I'm hoping they develop this year so we can watch some decent football.

 

[irish4ever]

8-4
Lose to U$C, Stanford and either Georgia or Miami, and finally to someone they should NOT lose to (i.e. NC?, Navy?, MSU?) because of not preparing properly or "just going thru the motions".

 

[NDdomer2]

[

What do you mean by this?

Ground and pound with limited risky play calling. Lowers chance of bad/negative plays, allows for punting and playing field position, with reliance of defense.

That's been ND a total of 1 time in the BK era.

 

[zelezo vlk]

[


Ground and pound with limited risky play calling. Lowers chance of bad/negative plays, allows for punting and playing field position, with reliance of defense.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RBlgN85wB6U" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Shamrock Theories]

ND will start 6-0. Why? Georgia (8-5) was average at best last year:
-lost by 31 to an Ole Miss team that finished 5-7
-lost to Vandy
-beat 4-8 Missouri by 1

However, ND will stumble to a 9-3 finish, losing to USC, Miami, and Stanford.

 

[Downinthebend]

[


Ground and pound with limited risky play calling. Lowers chance of bad/negative plays, allows for punting and playing field position, with reliance of defense.

That's been ND a total of 1 time in the BK era.

I mean, I guess you aren't talking about we saw this spring game. This spring game's offensive playcalling reminded me nicely of Harbaugh/Shaw with wide amounts of running and playaction, and easy completion short throws. The only major exceptions is almost every "run" has a built in "perfect audible to playaction" (the post-snap/pre-snap RPO) that might slant the numbers but numbers always lie.

Hell, in those naked plays, almost always the first read is the flat TE, which is exactly the first read of the famous Spider 2 Y Bannana (the flat FB).

Harbaugh also employs shot plays like we used (especially off of playaction, which were alot of the shot plays).

Take a look at how our linemen lineup every snap compared with most "spread offenses" https://twitter.com/alex_kirshner/status/856930409724211204 .

I expect this season to be low risk, because its a built in to take what is given, and include ground and pound. The exception is the tempo and perhaps not relying on the defense, but Long made a point in his Clinic to talk about if hes having a bad day, (or the defense is) they'll go into more of a 4-minute offense, or call more sugar huddles/ check with mes to slow the pace down.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

ND's offensive philosophy play's against the method Michigan used of forcing teams to beat them. Coaching does make a difference as noted in this example and I expect it to matter for us as well (We def. upgraded on D, offense is a who knows, Sanford and Denbrock weren't our issue last year, at least not in my opinion).

It probably sounds like I am down on this team, which I dont think would be accurate. They have the athletes. I like the D coaching. We were in all those games last year and a reasonable person would say we come out on top of our share on those this year.

But everything you hear about the locker room/program chemistry last year is rough and the man at the top hasnt changed, and majority of those guys are still on this team. How do they erase that from memory, or turn it around to a positive in 1 offseason while learning a whole new system/communication style from new coordinators/strength coach.

It's a lot to expect from dudes aged 22 and younger.

Watching the spring game, the offense is a major upgrade with the differences in blocking scheme (alone). The offensive linemen's footwork has been streamlined as much as the signal calling. Now these guys will be able to knock people on their asses while run blocking!

The guy in charge that wants to run up temp has the players toss the ball to the line judge or ref in the middle, not at the sideline, that is a single purpose attention to detail.

Stanford, Denbrock, AND Kelly were the problem. They pulled against each other until the team was impotent (offensively.)

And of that three it wasn't Sanford. Because he had the programs blessing when he left.

As far as last years memories, you counteract that by giving them something to achieve, something to 'win' at by accomplishing. Balis is providing that. So there are three reasons building the strength and conditioning program the way they did will pay massive dividends this year. Fewer injuries. Significantly better performance by each player. And a much better mental outlook, partly the toughness that Balis has the established record of instilling in his participants, and partly by eliminating the remaining negatives from last season.

And that is a big reason I believe my son is correct in his assessment.

• ND played significantly beneath its talent level last season. And that was entirely under Kelly's control.
• Since the player skill was there, improving things that the players can't control like conditioning and scheme (offensively and defensively), have improved by incredible percentages. Even the basic skills exhibited in every clip I've seen from practice, and in the spring game support that.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Oh yeah, and don't look now, but Del Alexander is teaching the wide receivers to alter their routes to come back and help out the quarterback, something these guys were never taught under Denbrock. Just saying.

 

[NDdomer2]

I mean, I guess you aren't talking about we saw this spring game. This spring game's offensive playcalling reminded me nicely of Harbaugh/Shaw with wide amounts of running and playaction, and easy completion short throws. The only major exceptions is almost every "run" has a built in "perfect audible to playaction" (the post-snap/pre-snap RPO) that might slant the numbers but numbers always lie.

Hell, in those naked plays, almost always the first read is the flat TE, which is exactly the first read of the famous Spider 2 Y Bannana (the flat FB).

Harbaugh also employs shot plays like we used (especially off of playaction, which were alot of the shot plays).

Take a look at how our linemen lineup every snap compared with most "spread offenses" https://twitter.com/alex_kirshner/status/856930409724211204 .

I expect this season to be low risk, because its a built in to take what is given, and include ground and pound. The exception is the tempo and perhaps not relying on the defense, but Long made a point in his Clinic to talk about if hes having a bad day, (or the defense is) they'll go into more of a 4-minute offense, or call more sugar huddles/ check with mes to slow the pace down.

certainly wasn't including any spring game, as it is more practice than actual game with something on the line.

I also dont think Michigan's offense in 2015 (WildBill's reference of a turn-around) was quite the same as the one he ran with Shaw at Stanford, including future #1 draft pick Luck (your reference above) but I could be mistaken some as I haven't diagrammed all play calls for both teams from the different years (who watches our opponents that much).

Our pace of play still differs from Harbaugh's as you note. However, we have seen increased pace in spring games and it not translate to regular season, so I am reluctant to put much stock in how we looked in the spring game.

However, I did like what I saw and hope it carries over. I would really like us to rely on the run a lil more (and i dont mean quick passes count as runs). We have 3 high level backs and some monsters up front. Take some pressure off the D for once.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

I'm going to shamelessly promote my post-game intro observations of Chip Long's offense here.

It includes breaking down an RPO play where ND threw off of when they had a triple team at the line of scrimmage, and the breakdown is in 3-d.

https://www.18stripes.com/the-chip-long-nd-offense-part-1-intro/

This is the most significant post about the offense in this thread. And with the linked article may be the best this spring.

I cannot impress anyone with how much less predictable this offense is from linemen not giving away the play with the first two steps of their footwork, to the different personnel groups, etc. This is going to be worth three to four wins, this year over last year.

(In other words, three or four games we lost to teams with mediocre defenses and lower levels of talent were because our offense was so predictable. Defenses could play faster than our offense did. And that really affected DK's performance, too!)

 

[Cackalacky]

This is the most significant post about the offense in this thread. And with the linked article may be the best this spring.

I cannot impress anyone with how much less predictable this offense is from linemen not giving away the play with the first two steps of their footwork, to the different personnel groups, etc. This is going to be worth three to four wins, this year over last year.

(In other words, three or four games we lost to teams with mediocre defenses and lower levels of talent were because our offense was so predictable. Defenses could play faster than our offense did. And that really affected DK's performance, too!)

so 8-4 then.... gotcha.