irishfan
Irish Hoops Mod
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We will need 4 or 5 games to win the ACC Tourney - beat UVA and we have a single bye with 4 to win it all, lose and we are most likely playing first day for a five game slog. I still think we are bubble worthy with 20 wins and in with 21. Either way, we need to make the quarter finals to be on the bubble and semi-final showing should be dancing.
Given that framework - I feel pretty good about making the Big Dance.
We aren't hitting the 8/9 seed without beating UVA regular season-
- Lose to UVA in tourney - finish 20-13 with road win over #1 = IN
- Beat UVA twice in less than a week, lose in Semis for 21-13 = no brainer IN
Lose to UVA and we get an extra game -
- Two wins and lose to Duke or UNC in Semis to finish 20-14 = Bubble.
- Beat Duke or UNC to finish 21-14 = IN.
Huge upside if we beat UVA - so much that it may excuse a round one loss in ACC tourney and earn us bubble time with only 19 wins, IMO. Positive ACC Tourney momentum is very important for these guys and I think they will bring some thunder.
I think a great scenario for us to go on an ACC Tourney run if we lose to UVA is for us to be the 11 seed. If NC State wins out (favored in last two games) and Duke beats UNC to end the season, NC State will be the 3 seed. We could definitely make a run to the ACC semis if that all lines up.
Our path would be something like:
Round 1: vs 14 seed (Wake or Georgia Tech)
Round 2: vs 6 seed (Clemson, Louisville, Miami, VA Tech)
Quarterfinals: vs 3 seed NC State
If Bonzie is back and 100% I think we’d be favored in every game there.
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