2017-2018 Notre Dame Men's Basketball

irishfan

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We will need 4 or 5 games to win the ACC Tourney - beat UVA and we have a single bye with 4 to win it all, lose and we are most likely playing first day for a five game slog. I still think we are bubble worthy with 20 wins and in with 21. Either way, we need to make the quarter finals to be on the bubble and semi-final showing should be dancing.

Given that framework - I feel pretty good about making the Big Dance.

We aren't hitting the 8/9 seed without beating UVA regular season-
- Lose to UVA in tourney - finish 20-13 with road win over #1 = IN
- Beat UVA twice in less than a week, lose in Semis for 21-13 = no brainer IN

Lose to UVA and we get an extra game -
- Two wins and lose to Duke or UNC in Semis to finish 20-14 = Bubble.
- Beat Duke or UNC to finish 21-14 = IN.

Huge upside if we beat UVA - so much that it may excuse a round one loss in ACC tourney and earn us bubble time with only 19 wins, IMO. Positive ACC Tourney momentum is very important for these guys and I think they will bring some thunder.

I think a great scenario for us to go on an ACC Tourney run if we lose to UVA is for us to be the 11 seed. If NC State wins out (favored in last two games) and Duke beats UNC to end the season, NC State will be the 3 seed. We could definitely make a run to the ACC semis if that all lines up.

Our path would be something like:
Round 1: vs 14 seed (Wake or Georgia Tech)
Round 2: vs 6 seed (Clemson, Louisville, Miami, VA Tech)
Quarterfinals: vs 3 seed NC State

If Bonzie is back and 100% I think we’d be favored in every game there.
 
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RDU Irish

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We are in Lunardi’s “Next Four Out” in today’s bracketology. So we are within shouting distance at least.

I find his picks a bit too suck in the present without much color on what a team needs to do to work their way in (or who needs to fall apart to open their door wider). Those calling us toast aren't making educated statements though.
 

Woneone

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I think a great scenario for us to go on an ACC Tourney run if we lose to UVA is for us to be the 11 seed. If NC State wins out (favored in last two games) and Duke beats UNC to end the season, NC State will be the 3 seed. We could definitely make a run to the ACC semis if that all lines up.

Our path would be something like:
Round 1: vs 14 seed (Wake or Georgia Tech)
Round 2: vs 6 seed (Clemson, Louisville, Miami, VA Tech)
Quarterfinals: vs 3 seed NC State

If Bonzie is back and 100% I think we’d be favored in every game there.

Beat Pitt, let other bubble teams beat on each other.

If we beat Virginia, I think one win in the ACC Tournament gets us in. If not, we win 3 in a row, I think we'd be in (with Bonzie). Your above scenario would be great.

Three games in three days is rough, but I think this team is more equipped for this than most previous ND editions. If Bonzie comes back, we have some depth that we haven't had in some time. I'm comfortable with Burns or Mooney or Djogo coming in for a few minutes here and there to spell starters, even extended minutes if need be.
 

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I think a great scenario for us to go on an ACC Tourney run if we lose to UVA is for us to be the 11 seed. If NC State wins out (favored in last two games) and Duke beats UNC to end the season, NC State will be the 3 seed. We could definitely make a run to the ACC semis if that all lines up.

Our path would be something like:
Round 1: vs 14 seed (Wake or Georgia Tech)
Round 2: vs 6 seed (Clemson, Louisville, Miami, VA Tech)
Quarterfinals: vs 3 seed NC State

If Bonzie is back and 100% I think we’d be favored in every game there.

NCST is playing some good ball right now. At this point in time, I don't see much difference between playing Duke, UNC or NCST - however losing to NCST looks worse than losing to the other two (beating them doesn't feel as good either).

Any way you slice it - 10/11 seed is a much better path to a deep run than 8/9. UVA is the only team I really want to avoid - even if we disregard how well they have owned us in the league.
 

Ndaccountant

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I find his picks a bit too suck in the present without much color on what a team needs to do to work their way in (or who needs to fall apart to open their door wider). Those calling us toast aren't making educated statements though.

On the flip side of that, what would be educated?

From what I can personally recall, I can't think of another team in recent history where the team's star player returns from injury, thus invalidating a significant portion of the teams losses. It is typically a question of seeding, not so much in and out. I really don't think there is much precedent to go on here.

IMO, I can't over emphasize how much the Ball State, Indiana and MSU games hurt ND. We were full strength at the time, lost two games we had no business losing and got bitch slapped by MSU. We were not trending well when Bonzie got hurt.

The only way ND is in, IMO, is if Bonzie performs lights out. Absent that, I don't think ND has chance, nor should they.
 
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RDU Irish

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Beat Pitt, let other bubble teams beat on each other.

If we beat Virginia, I think one win in the ACC Tournament gets us in. If not, we win 3 in a row, I think we'd be in (with Bonzie). Your above scenario would be great.

Three games in three days is rough, but I think this team is more equipped for this than most previous ND editions. If Bonzie comes back, we have some depth that we haven't had in some time. I'm comfortable with Burns or Mooney or Djogo coming in for a few minutes here and there to spell starters, even extended minutes if need be.

I'm OK with Djogo keeping his warm-ups on. Burns can burn some fouls with Torres but bigs are not what we need with Bonzie back.

Geben, Mooney, Colson - that is a pretty good rotation of bigs if you sprinkle Torres and Burns for some juice - start to see the need for a three big line-up to spell the depleted guard court. Not sure how those top three look together but Mooney camping out in three land with Geben working with Bonz doesn't sound too bad to me. Motion and creating mismatches could be a beautiful thing.

Rex, Matt, TJ...... Djogo - Djogo pretty much has to play to spell these guys. We can't have Rex/Matt/TJ averaging 35+ minutes five days in a row, but we will. Good to see the 9 rebounds by Djogo - but the offensive brain fart on his part isn't solving itself this season.

Brey will lean heavily on the six man rotation - other three will be 5 minute contributors unless there is foul trouble. And that is really the right thing to do this time. With Harvey we would be a well balanced 7 man rotation with every person a threat to score.
 

Irish#1

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On the flip side of that, what would be educated?

From what I can personally recall, I can't think of another team in recent history where the team's star player returns from injury, thus invalidating a significant portion of the teams losses. It is typically a question of seeding, not so much in and out. I really don't think there is much precedent to go on here.

IMO, I can't over emphasize how much the Ball State, Indiana and MSU games hurt ND. We were full strength at the time, lost two games we had no business losing and got bitch slapped by MSU. We were not trending well when Bonzie got hurt.

The only way ND is in, IMO, is if Bonzie performs lights out. Absent that, I don't think ND has chance, nor should they.

I'm with you. I posted three or four pages back that for us to get in, we'd need to win out and make ACC final four. Those losses are going to haunt us.
 

NDty9

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I'm with you. I posted three or four pages back that for us to get in, we'd need to win out and make ACC final four. Those losses are going to haunt us.

So you don't think the 20 Win mark gets us in, unless (maybe) one of those is against UVA in the last game?
 

NDGOLDEN

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So you don't think the 20 Win mark gets us in, unless (maybe) one of those is against UVA in the last game?

I personally think it would be a toss up if we get to 20 wins. Get to 21 wins I think we are in. The fact that lunardi has us next four out means we are right there and we just need to win Wednesday and maybe see if these bubble teams can keep losing
 

IrishLax

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The way I see it we need to accumulate 3 more wins is the minimum to even be in the conversation, and then the conversation shifts to focus on the quality of those wins and the resumes of the other teams we're being compared against. Accordingly, hard for anyone to project.

I will say I'd love to see an NIT run with Bonzie healthy.
 

NDGOLDEN

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The way I see it we need to accumulate 3 more wins is the minimum to even be in the conversation, and then the conversation shifts to focus on the quality of those wins and the resumes of the other teams we're being compared against. Accordingly, hard for anyone to project.

I will say I'd love to see an NIT run with Bonzie healthy.

I wouldn’t mind making a run in the NIT but I know if we make the tourney we are gonna make some noise and people will be scared to play us if we are healthy
 

Irish#1

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So you don't think the 20 Win mark gets us in, unless (maybe) one of those is against UVA in the last game?

Correct

A guy on one of the local sports talk shows, was invited to participate in a mock selection at the NCAA 2-3 years ago. They went over what past committees use and think for deciding who's in and who isn't. They then went through the actual process. Bad losses appear to hurt more than quality wins helps.

Hope I'm wrong, but we'll know soon.
 

RDU Irish

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On the flip side of that, what would be educated?

From what I can personally recall, I can't think of another team in recent history where the team's star player returns from injury, thus invalidating a significant portion of the teams losses. It is typically a question of seeding, not so much in and out. I really don't think there is much precedent to go on here.

IMO, I can't over emphasize how much the Ball State, Indiana and MSU games hurt ND. We were full strength at the time, lost two games we had no business losing and got bitch slapped by MSU. We were not trending well when Bonzie got hurt.

The only way ND is in, IMO, is if Bonzie performs lights out. Absent that, I don't think ND has chance, nor should they.

MSU was 19-14 last year and got in. Lost to every ranked team they played pre-conference plus Northeastern. Only ranked team they beat was Wisconsin (all per ESPN site).

Xavier was 21-13 with a 9-9 conference record in the Big East and a six game losing streak from 2/11 to 3/1 only to win the last game of the regular season and two in the conference tourney. Look at that schedule and tell me what is so tough there?

I mean - you don't have to look that hard.

20 wins is a big bogie - always has been. All the intangibles point up in our favor if we hit that bogie. Now - I do think it would help if Syracuse and FSU imploded. Part of what we battle is how much room is out there for more ACC teams. Do we need to bump out one or both of those two in order to make it? Is our bubble directly linked to theirs? Is it better to have them play the 8/9 and winner lose to UVA?

I see a lot of conjecture to be had in that more than we let the #3 MAC team beat us in at the buzzer at home and #6 B1G(ot) team in OT at a neutral site. Oh the horror. Playing good teams pre-conference is new to ND and I don't think they are going to overly punish that. And if you are going to lament the MSU blowout - you also have to respect the close games we have lost, and blowouts we have delivered as well.

OK, so maybe 14 lossses is a bigger deal than I thought. Never accuse me of confirmation bias, btw.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/bracket-beat/2017-02-17/college-basketball-teams-make-ncaa-tournament-double
 

NDGOLDEN

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MSU was 19-14 last year and got in. Lost to every ranked team they played pre-conference plus Northeastern. Only ranked team they beat was Wisconsin (all per ESPN site).

Xavier was 21-13 with a 9-9 conference record in the Big East and a six game losing streak from 2/11 to 3/1 only to win the last game of the regular season and two in the conference tourney. Look at that schedule and tell me what is so tough there?

I mean - you don't have to look that hard.

20 wins is a big bogie - always has been. All the intangibles point up in our favor if we hit that bogie. Now - I do think it would help if Syracuse and FSU imploded. Part of what we battle is how much room is out there for more ACC teams. Do we need to bump out one or both of those two in order to make it? Is our bubble directly linked to theirs? Is it better to have them play the 8/9 and winner lose to UVA?

I see a lot of conjecture to be had in that more than we let the #3 MAC team beat us in at the buzzer at home and #6 B1G(ot) team in OT at a neutral site. Oh the horror. Playing good teams pre-conference is new to ND and I don't think they are going to overly punish that. And if you are going to lament the MSU blowout - you also have to respect the close games we have lost, and blowouts we have delivered as well.

OK, so maybe 14 lossses is a bigger deal than I thought. Never accuse me of confirmation bias, btw.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/bracket-beat/2017-02-17/college-basketball-teams-make-ncaa-tournament-double

Ya I just referenced this a page back. 14 loses can still get you into the tourney. Vandy made it with 15 losses last year so and KSU was 8-10 in conference play
 

irishrb

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The way I see it we need to accumulate 3 more wins is the minimum to even be in the conversation, and then the conversation shifts to focus on the quality of those wins and the resumes of the other teams we're being compared against. Accordingly, hard for anyone to project.

I will say I'd love to see an NIT run with Bonzie healthy.

100% NO....Farrell, Colson, Geben, Torres, GREGORY, deserve a last chance in the real dance. I'm really hoping that they handle pitt, and then find a way to win at uva, knowing that's their chance...
 

RDU Irish

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Correct

A guy on one of the local sports talk shows, was invited to participate in a mock selection at the NCAA 2-3 years ago. They went over what past committees use and think for deciding who's in and who isn't. They then went through the actual process. Bad losses appear to hurt more than quality wins helps.

Hope I'm wrong, but we'll know soon.

Some of us are defining "bad losses" differently than others.

@ MSU - never a bad loss to MSU
Ball State - #3 MAC team, not a bad loss especially when losing at the buzzer
Neutral court - Indiana - #6 B1G, big name, neutral site, OT - not a bad loss
@GT - sub-.500 team on the road, bad loss (worst by large margin) but circumstances of our health very compelling argument to say not a bad loss.
UNC - one that really got away at home to the evil illiterates
LOU - close home loss
@ Clemson - 3 point game with 2 minutes left
VT - close home losses starting to suck
@ Duke - smoked us
@ NCST - roasted by 18 (we beat them by 30)
@ UNC - game to the four minute mark
Miami - Close home loss - burn the damn floor and baskets already

Quality wins? Wichita State ranks ups there for sure - neutral site bonus. NCST @ home looks better as the keep rolling. Destroying FSU at home and beating 'Cuse on the road are very bubble relevant. I see a better argument in "lack of quality wins" than in saying we have bad losses hanging over our head. Quantity of losses is the problem, not the level of embarrassment of really any of them.
 

Ndaccountant

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MSU was 19-14 last year and got in. Lost to every ranked team they played pre-conference plus Northeastern. Only ranked team they beat was Wisconsin (all per ESPN site).

Xavier was 21-13 with a 9-9 conference record in the Big East and a six game losing streak from 2/11 to 3/1 only to win the last game of the regular season and two in the conference tourney. Look at that schedule and tell me what is so tough there?

I mean - you don't have to look that hard.

20 wins is a big bogie - always has been. All the intangibles point up in our favor if we hit that bogie. Now - I do think it would help if Syracuse and FSU imploded. Part of what we battle is how much room is out there for more ACC teams. Do we need to bump out one or both of those two in order to make it? Is our bubble directly linked to theirs? Is it better to have them play the 8/9 and winner lose to UVA?

I see a lot of conjecture to be had in that more than we let the #3 MAC team beat us in at the buzzer at home and #6 B1G(ot) team in OT at a neutral site. Oh the horror. Playing good teams pre-conference is new to ND and I don't think they are going to overly punish that. And if you are going to lament the MSU blowout - you also have to respect the close games we have lost, and blowouts we have delivered as well.

OK, so maybe 14 lossses is a bigger deal than I thought. Never accuse me of confirmation bias, btw.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/bracket-beat/2017-02-17/college-basketball-teams-make-ncaa-tournament-double

I don't think the MSU is apples to apples though. The injury occurred in December and I think he was back either the second or third game of the B10 season. So in effect, the body of work "with" him was there and the committee could evaluate. They were far from a top 15 team, but they still could be "evaluated".

At this point, ND should be evaluated as if Bonzie isn't there. In that case, ND is a sure fire no go. Pending on how he looks, ND could get some benefit. To me, Bonzie needs to be the 20-10 guy that we all know he is, for at least 3 games. That is the only way ND gets the benefit of the doubt w/r/t convincing the committee that they are more of the Nov/Dec team and not the Jan / Feb team.
 

RDU Irish

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I don't think the MSU is apples to apples though. The injury occurred in December and I think he was back either the second or third game of the B10 season. So in effect, the body of work "with" him was there and the committee could evaluate. They were far from a top 15 team, but they still could be "evaluated".

At this point, ND should be evaluated as if Bonzie isn't there. In that case, ND is a sure fire no go. Pending on how he looks, ND could get some benefit. To me, Bonzie needs to be the 20-10 guy that we all know he is, for at least 3 games. That is the only way ND gets the benefit of the doubt w/r/t convincing the committee that they are more of the Nov/Dec team and not the Jan / Feb team.

So how many wins do we need to make up for 14 losses in your mind? Or are we in with 19 wins if Bonzie goes 30-15 in the last three games? You sound like someone who thinks Bama earned their playoff spot.
 

Ndaccountant

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So how many wins do we need to make up for 14 losses in your mind? Or are we in with 19 wins if Bonzie goes 30-15 in the last three games? You sound like someone who thinks Bama earned their playoff spot.

I think if ND gets to 19 and Bonzie looks like the POTY candidate we all know he is, ND has an argument. Anything less, I think they are toast.

BTW, what makes ND a compelling case in your mind? The 4-2 spurt they are on, with 3 of the 4 wins coming over mighty BC and Wake? The hope that Bonzie returns and ND somehow instantly morphs into the team that was playing against LSU and the Shockers? I love ND basketball and am saddened by what has transpired this year w/r/t injuries. But if ND somehow does make it into the tourney this year, it will be based on nothing but projection. That is it.
 

Irishize

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So you don't think the 20 Win mark gets us in, unless (maybe) one of those is against UVA in the last game?

Never say never but beating UVA seems like the longest of long shots this season.
 

Irish YJ

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Never say never but beating UVA seems like the longest of long shots this season.

I think the longest shot is winning the ACC tourney lol.... UVA is a great team, but they are beatable. Lost to VT at home IIRC. Definitely not likely, but crazier things have happened. Bonzie should be fresh and playing with chips on both shoulders.

sub .500 league record + sub 20 win total + only one win vs a current top 25 team = a team that needs to make a statement.
 

Woneone

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I think the longest shot is winning the ACC tourney lol.... UVA is a great team, but they are beatable. Lost to VT at home IIRC. Definitely not likely, but crazier things have happened. Bonzie should be fresh and playing with chips on both shoulders.

sub .500 league record + sub 20 win total + only one win vs a current top 25 team = a team that needs to make a statement.

We need at least one more quadrant one win to feel safe (as in enough Quad 1's to compete with some other bubble teams), so beating a top 50 team on a neutral (if memory serves) will do that. NC State, VT, Lville, Miami, or Florida State would work. Virginia would be worth a whole bunch of bonus points.

That would give us 7 quad 1 and 2 wins.

Conference record is overrated. Palm and Lunardi always say how people focus way to much on this. Now, it wouldn't help if we're sub .500, but it's not something that is given much lip service, normally it's pretty downplayed.

I think we'll make it interesting if we can get that quad 1 win. It will depend a lot on how Bonzi looks. If he struggles, doesn't matter what we do short of win the ACC.
 

Irish YJ

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We need at least one more quadrant one win to feel safe (as in enough Quad 1's to compete with some other bubble teams), so beating a top 50 team on a neutral (if memory serves) will do that. NC State, VT, Lville, Miami, or Florida State would work. Virginia would be worth a whole bunch of bonus points.

That would give us 7 quad 1 and 2 wins.

Conference record is overrated. Palm and Lunardi always say how people focus way to much on this. Now, it wouldn't help if we're sub .500, but it's not something that is given much lip service, normally it's pretty downplayed.

I think we'll make it interesting if we can get that quad 1 win. It will depend a lot on how Bonzi looks. If he struggles, doesn't matter what we do short of win the ACC.

We'll disagree on conference record. Perhaps it is overrated but it's always something discussed and looked at. Like noted earlier, only 35 teams ever. 20 wins is also always discussed as well. Every year is different and it's about what others do as well so still a lot that can happen. I do think with Bonzie back we can make a case. We have a favorable BPI and SoS so there's that too. I'd be happy with a close loss to UVA and a little run in the tourney. I do have a gut feeling we'll give UVA more than they expect.

Off topic, but saw on one of the NBA Mock Draft boards that Bonzie is graded as late second round. Would love to see him improve that stock with some monster games to close out strong.
 

NDGOLDEN

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We'll disagree on conference record. Perhaps it is overrated but it's always something discussed and looked at. Like noted earlier, only 35 teams ever. 20 wins is also always discussed as well. Every year is different and it's about what others do as well so still a lot that can happen. I do think with Bonzie back we can make a case. We have a favorable BPI and SoS so there's that too. I'd be happy with a close loss to UVA and a little run in the tourney. I do have a gut feeling we'll give UVA more than they expect.

Off topic, but saw on one of the NBA Mock Draft boards that Bonzie is graded as late second round. Would love to see him improve that stock with some monster games to close out strong.

Ya I read somewhere an draft expert said that if bonzie can make some noise in the acc tourney and NCAA tourney then his stock will go up.

Also I agree with the UVA game. I think they won’t see us coming. We never ever play good against Virginia so we gotta break that losing streak sometime why not this Saturday?
 

Irish YJ

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Ya I read somewhere an draft expert said that if bonzie can make some noise in the acc tourney and NCAA tourney then his stock will go up.

Also I agree with the UVA game. I think they won’t see us coming. We never ever play good against Virginia so we gotta break that losing streak sometime why not this Saturday?

I hate it for Bonzie. REALLY bad timing for his injury. The good news is he should be rested. I hope he's a friggin beast.

On UVA, exactly! Why not this Saturday! They are sitting fat dumb and happy with a #1 spot. Hoping we punch them in the nose from the get go.

As important as anything, is how other teams on the bubble perform. I'll cheering hard for a few specific losses and also that we don't see any big surprises in the other conference championships.
 

NDGOLDEN

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Irish YJ

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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-bubble-watch-texas-is-on-the-fence-and-a-win-at-kansas-would-be-huge/

VATech probably solidified their spot. TX probably fell off the fence. Marquette won, but still work to do.

In for now
TEAM RPI SOS NEXT GAME
ARIZONA ST. (19-9) 42 57 THU, 9:00pm ET vs California
BUTLER (19-10) 35 20 WED, 9:00pm ET @ St. John's
FLORIDA (18-11) 56 30 TUE, 7:00pm ET @ Alabama
FLORIDA ST. (19-9) 48 75 WED, 9:00pm ET @ Clemson
MIAMI (FLA.) (20-8) 31 58 TUE, 9:00pm ET @ N. Carolina
MIDDLE TENN. (23-5) 23 94 THU, 8:00pm ET vs Western Ky.
MISSOURI (18-11) 44 24 TUE, 7:00pm ET @ Vanderbilt
NC STATE (20-9) 47 54 THU, 8:00pm ET @ Georgia Tech
OKLAHOMA (17-11) 34 12 TUE, 9:00pm ET @ Baylor
ST. MARY'S (27-4) 38 161 THU at WCC Tournament
TEXAS A&M (18-11) 26 7 WED, 8:30pm ET @ Georgia
VA. TECH (20-9) 59 76 MON, 7:00pm ET vs Duke

On the fence
TEAM RPI SOS NEXT GAME

ALABAMA (17-12) 41 6 TUE, 7:00pm ET vs Florida
KANSAS ST. (20-9) 61 77 TUE, 9:00pm ET @ TCU
LOUISVILLE (19-10) 39 29 THU, 8:00pm ET vs Virginia
PROVIDENCE (18-11) 43 23 WED, 6:30pm ET @ Xavier
ST. BONA. (22-6) 24 88 TUE, 9:00pm ET vs Davidson
SYRACUSE (18-11) 46 15 WED, 9:00pm ET @ Boston College
TEXAS (17-12) 55 21 MON, 9:00pm ET @ Kansas
UCLA (19-10) 54 60 SAT, 10:15pm ET @ USC
USC (21-9) 27 44 SAT, 10:15pm ET vs UCLA
UTAH (18-10) 56 61 SAT, 7:00pm ET vs Colorado
WASHINGTON (19-10) 51 48 THU, 11:00pm ET vs Oregon St.


Work to do
TEAM RPI SOS NEXT GAME

BAYLOR (17-12) 62 22 TUE, 9:00pm ET vs Oklahoma
BOISE ST. (22-6) 45 120 TUE, 11:00pm ET @ San Diego St
MARQUETTE (16-12) 66 25 MON, 7:00pm ET @ Georgetown
MISS. STATE (21-8) 63 108 TUE, 7:00pm ET vs Tennessee
NEBRASKA (22-9) 58 104 FRI at Big Ten Tournament
OREGON (19-10) 72 74 THU, 9:00pm ET @ Wash. State
 
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