2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


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wizards8507

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Again ... its all about egos.

Rubio certainly isn't going to drop out right now. He's convinced that as a candidate who has not come close to winning a state yet, that he's got momentum.

Kasich isn't going to drop out until after Ohio. I just read something this morning that said Trump is now edging him in the polls.

Cruz isn't dropping out, because he has too high an opinion of himself and his chances. He's going to see what happens in his home state of Texas before he gets the message.

Carson ... I'm surprised that he hasn't dropped out already, but who knows how long he sticks around. I suspect that either after Nevada or perhaps Super Tuesday he will have no choice (and probably no money).

It's probably going at least until the end of March or the beginning of April until its a two-man race.

That's why Trump's chances look pretty good right now. The more state primary races that come and go, the more delegates he's going to stockpile.
Kasich will be out after the Michigan primary. He won't make it to Ohio.

Carson is embarrassing himself, damaging the party, and damaging the country.

I'm not convinced Trump is unbeatable even in a three-man race. He could start fading in a Trump-Rubio-Cruz field.

I'm no Jeb! supporter, but dropping out was the honorable thing to do. Kasich and Carson should learn from that.
 

GoIrish41

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Kasich will be out after the Michigan primary. He won't make it to Ohio.

Carson is embarrassing himself, damaging the party, and damaging the country.

I'm not convinced Trump is unbeatable even in a three-man race. He could start fading in a Trump-Rubio-Cruz field.

I'm no Jeb! supporter, but dropping out was the honorable thing to do. Kasich and Carson should learn from that.

Rubio's best shot is that Trump doesn't get enough delegates to capture the nomination and the decision goes to the convention. That will really hurt the party and likely affect GOP turnout in the general election.
 

wizards8507

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Rubio's best shot is that Trump doesn't get enough delegates to capture the nomination and the decision goes to the convention. That will really hurt the party and likely affect GOP turnout in the general election.
A contested convention would hurt the party and GOP turnout a hell of a lot less than Trump as the nominee. If Trump is the nominee, I'll go way beyond staying home and I'll actively campaign for Hillary.

I think you're wrong either way. Trump has secured the vehemently anti-establishment wing of the party already. Whether Cruz or Rubio drops first, his support is going to go overwhelmingly to the other guy, not to Trump.
 

IrishJayhawk

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A contested convention would hurt the party and GOP turnout a hell of a lot less than Trump as the nominee. If Trump is the nominee, I'll go way beyond staying home and I'll actively campaign for Hillary.

I think you're wrong either way. Trump has secured the vehemently anti-establishment wing of the party already. Whether Cruz or Rubio drops first, his support is going to go overwhelmingly to the other guy, not to Trump.

I'll hold you to that.
 

kmoose

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Carson is embarrassing himself, damaging the party, and damaging the country.

I think the guy's religious views are a little over the top, but how do you figure all of this? Please explain to me, especially, how he is "damaging the country"?
 

drayer54

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sorry just had to LOL at your take here...

I don't expect the left to welcome a person who can expand the party as the GOP candidate. Ted Cruz does nothing to expand the base and Trump has a mouth-breather ceiling around 30-40%. These individuals present an entirely different image than the crap that was pushed on the ticket with Mitt in 2012. So yes, I do think that this take is valid.
 

drayer54

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Rubio's best shot is that Trump doesn't get enough delegates to capture the nomination and the decision goes to the convention. That will really hurt the party and likely affect GOP turnout in the general election.


That's not his best shot. 3 states have been decided. Only 3. Anything that results in Trump/Cruz not being the nominee is good for the party.
 

GoIrish41

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That's not his best shot. 3 states have been decided. Only 3. Anything that results in Trump/Cruz not being the nominee is good for the party.

Rubio is not polling ahead of Trump anywhere, including Florida. No GOP candidate who has won NH and SC has ever not won the nomination.
 

ND NYC

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in his mind, if it goes a brokered convention and:
if Trump won the most states, loses a brokered convention, and doesn't get the nomination-he will go apeshit! feel they screwed him damn near guaranteeing he runs as an independent. on spite alone.

also I don't think the GOP "base" (whatever that means anymore) gets jazzed up to go vote/passinatley support a Rubio.
best case for GOP a Rubio picks off Latin votes from the Dem (which could offset dispassionate GOP base so could be a wash) Rubio needs to actually WIN a state, no?
 

RDU Irish

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I mean it. Trump is a tyrant, he'll rule like a tyrant, he'll probably start World War III, and he'll do it all in the name of the Republican Party.

When Rand Paul can't get any traction in the Republican Party - I am kind of OK with them getting FUBAR.

This idea that logic and reason rules politics is beyond comical. I mean, look at who is in the Oval Office right now? Hope and Change! Everyone runs on "changing DC" and we are surprised when the most outside the mainstream candidates on both sides pick up the support of the unwashed masses.
 

NDohio

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I mean it. Trump is a tyrant, he'll rule like a tyrant, he'll probably start World War III, and he'll do it all in the name of the Republican Party.

But after we win that war, we will again be the greatest nation on earth!
 
C

Cackalacky

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sorry just had to LOL at your take here...

I lol'd too.... Being from SC and knowing just how toxic this state's political environment has ALWAYS been, the fact that Tim Scott and Nikki Haley are being trumpeted for their ethnicity by Republicans from other parts of the country is hilarious considering they are really doing harm to many aspects of SC which is the real thing that should be taken from their legacy. Nikki Haley is doing some longterm damage to the economics of this state by all of her giveaways and lowball job plan:

Nikki Haley's troubled economic record in South Carolina

The Republican Party's decision to tap South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley to offer the rebuttal to President Obama's State of the Union address this week is a sure sign that Haley's political star is rising.

It's not difficult to see why the GOP chose Haley: While GOP front-runner Donald Trump makes headlines for his speeches bashing immigrants — antagonizing large swaths of the country's increasingly diverse electorate — Haley is the daughter of Indian immigrants and was elected in 2010 as the first non-white governor of South Carolina, a symbol of the changing South.

Haley is the youngest and one of the most popular governors in the country. As U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan gushed on CNN, "If you want to hear an inclusive leader who's visionary, who's got a path for the future, who's brought people together, who's unified, it's Nikki Haley."

When it comes to Haley's record as a government executive, however, the picture gets more cloudy. Above all, Haley has made bringing jobs to the Palmetto State her political calling card. In her 2014 re-election ads, Haley called her economic development policy "magic." As she declared in her 2015 State of the State address:

South Carolina continues to be a major success story when it comes to recruiting jobs to our state. We make it very clear to the companies that choose to invest here that they are joining our South Carolina family.


Read more here: TRANSCRIPT: SC Gov. Haley’s State of the State speech | The State
In her speech, Haley offered a roll call of 12 business leaders "from all across the world" who had recently added jobs in the state, examples of Haley's aggressive recruiting efforts to lure companies and expand existing businesses.

It's true that, as in most other states post-Great Recession, there are more jobs in South Carolina than when Haley took office. Unemployment has fallen from 11 percent in early 2011 to 5.5 percent today — although the jobless rate is still 15th-highest in the country, and the rate for the state's African-American workers is nearly twice that (9.9 percent).

But Haley has come under growing criticism for South Carolina's "low road" economic development approach, a strategy that lavishes millions of dollars in giveaways to companies for low-paying jobs that keep many working families mired in poverty. Among the costly downsides of Haley's low-road economics:

1) GIVEAWAYS COSTING BILLIONS OF DOLLARS: Under Haley, South Carolina has slashed college spending per student by 38 percent, and in 2014 the state Supreme Court found the state had failed in its duty to provide "minimally adequate" education to children in poor school districts.

But the state has not been stingy in doling out tax breaks, grants and other incentives to recruit businesses. In 2013, The State newspaper estimated that the price tag for incentive deals for just four companies — BMW, Boeing, Bridgestone and Michelin — totalled $800 million, or about $100,000 for each of the 8,000 jobs created.

The State further reported that the four companies "also have contributed almost $600,000 to the campaign coffers of S.C. politicians, political action committees, political parties and caucuses, S.C. Ethics Commission records show," and another $228,000 to the operating funds of the state parties.

The latest high-profile deal championed by Haley, bringing a Volvo plant to the state, had a reported price tag of $70 million of state "surplus" money and a remaining $53 million through economic development bonds. By one estimate, the deal could cost taxpayer $87 million in interest payments alone.

The generous taxpayer giveaways haven't always meant loyalty to South Carolina. According to the group Good Jobs First, Worthington Industries, which received $700,000 worth of subsidies in 2013 and 2014, in March 2015 announced the closure of its engineered cabs facility in Florence, South Carolina, causing them to lay off 310 workers.

2) LOW-PAYING JOBS AND ECONOMIC INSTABILITY: The bulk of new jobs in South Carolina aren't good-paying jobs. A 2015 report by the Alliance for a Just Society found that 57 percent of new jobs in South Carolina paid less than $15 an hour — one of the highest rates in the nation and well above the national average of 48 percent.

The low-road, cheap labor approach to job creation leaves many South Carolinians stuck in poverty or near poverty. South Carolina's median household income in 2014 stood at just $44,929, a 13.8 percent drop from its peak in 1996. The state ranks 16th in the country for highest percent of people living in poverty (15 percent) and fifth in the nation for child poverty (27 percent).

The ubiquity of low-paying jobs isn't an accident: In a 2014 interview, Haley famously declared that not only was she opposed to workers forming unions, but implied her administration would actively discourage companies from coming to South Carolina if they were open to unionization:

We discourage any company that has unions from wanting to come to South Carolina because we don't want to taint the water ... [W]e educate different companies coming in from outside to understand that's not what we want to do in South Carolina; and if they're interested in that, we're not where they need to come.

3) LOWER QUALITY OF LIFE: Together, shortchanging public investment and encouraging low-paying jobs contributes to South Carolina ranking near the bottom nationally on a host of indicators of health and well-being.

For example, in its 2015 report ranking states on health statistics including infant mortality, drug deaths, preventable hospitalizations and a host of other measures, United Health Foundation found South Carolina ranked as the ninth-most unhealthy state.

Ironically, if South Carolina's leaders committed to creating higher-paying jobs, it would lessen the burden on government programs they routinely criticize. For example, a Center for American Progress report in 2014 concluded that more than 57,000 South Carolinians would not need to rely on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program if the minimum wage in the state was lifted to $10.10 an hour.

Republicans are putting Haley forward as a new, fresh face for the GOP of the future. But in the South, the core of her economic vision is eerily familiar: a low-road approach that, when measured by indicators of shared prosperity and well-being, has had a high cost for working families.

Both Haley and Scott are essentially "do-boys" for the Tea Party though.
 

wizards8507

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I think the guy's religious views are a little over the top, but how do you figure all of this? Please explain to me, especially, how he is "damaging the country"?
By remaining in the race, Carson is increasing the odds of a Trump nomination and a Trump presidency. He has no business on the debate stage now that voters have spoken and he clearly doesn't have the support to maintain a legitimate campaign for the nomination. All he's doing is preventing the field from consolidating so that a clear "anti-Trump" favorite can emerge.

also I don't think the GOP "base" (whatever that means anymore) gets jazzed up to go vote/passinatley support a Rubio.
Rubio was a grass roots candidate when he ran for senate against Charlie Crist, a big establishment Republican who's since left the party and joined the Democrats. In any other year, Rubio would have run away with the nomination and it wouldn't have been close. However, in the Year of Trump, immigration has been the defining issue and immigration is the one issue where Rubio has a significant blemish in the eyes of the base. Most of the base actually really likes him, just not on that one issue.

best case for GOP a Rubio picks off Latin votes from the Dem (which could offset dispassionate GOP base so could be a wash)
I disagree that the GOP would be dispassionate about a Rubio candidacy, but let's assume you're right. If HRC is the Democrat nominee, you'll be dealing with a dispassionate Democrat base as well. Plus, the anti-Hillary forces in the GOP will be much more motivating than the anti-Rubio forces from the Democrats.

Rubio needs to actually WIN a state, no?
Eventually, but not yet. Rubio can stand losing to Trump if he can manage to distance himself from Cruz. If a state goes Trump 35, Rubio 30, Cruz 15, Kasich 15, Carson 5, that bodes very well for Rubio. The same goes for Cruz, for that matter. It's okay if Trump wins a few more states with a big field as long as 1) it doesn't stay that way for too long, and 2) there's enough distance between the leading anti-Trump and the other candidates that the bottom tier drops out.
 

Rizzophil

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I mean it. Trump is a tyrant, he'll rule like a tyrant, he'll probably start World War III, and he'll do it all in the name of the Republican Party.

Dude. We are clearly on the path to WW3. After 7 years of Obama the whole world is on fire.

What the heck is Obama doing closing Gitmo? The prisoners that have been released already have signed up with terror groups and declared their life to destroying America. Beyond common sense.
 

ND NYC

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from that website jayhwak linked to. some interesting data:

Total TV spending in SC primary (campaign + PAC):
Bush $13,783,000
Rubio $12,050,000
Cruz $7,070,000
Trump $1,780,000
Kasich $882,000
 

kmoose

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from that website jayhwak linked to. some interesting data:

Total TV spending in SC primary (campaign + PAC):
Bush $13,783,000
Rubio $12,050,000
Cruz $7,070,000
Trump $1,780,000
Kasich $882,000

Real campaign finance reform?

12% tax on all campaign expenditures.
 

woolybug25

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Dude. We are clearly on the path to WW3. After 7 years of Obama the whole world is on fire.

What the heck is Obama doing closing Gitmo? The prisoners that have been released already have signed up with terror groups and declared their life to destroying America. Beyond common sense.

Go back to your bunker, Rizzo... You're drunk.
 

ND NYC

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What's the current polling saying for Nevada today?
have to think Rubio can and should do well in a Nevada.
Does he have a shot out there?
3rd, 5th and 2nd place finishes so far for him...he needs an actual win soon, as remember hearing that trump leads in 10 of the 14 super Tuesday states (not sure which ones).
 

drayer54

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Rubio is not polling ahead of Trump anywhere, including Florida. No GOP candidate who has won NH and SC has ever not won the nomination.

True. But here is why Trump is different. ...A large portion of the party will not vote for him. He has demonstrated a ceiling more so than any candidate in recent history because he's not a serious option to many. Have you seen the endorsement flood this week? Not going to the winner of SC. It's put the party in a panic and the money and endorsements are flowing rapidly, likely more rapidly than ever before away from the winner of SC and NH. We'll see how this pans out.
 

IrishJayhawk

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True. But here is why Trump is different. ...A large portion of the party will not vote for him. He has demonstrated a ceiling more so than any candidate in recent history because he's not a serious option to many. Have you seen the endorsement flood this week? Not going to the winner of SC. It's put the party in a panic and the money and endorsements are flowing rapidly, likely more rapidly than ever before away from the winner of SC and NH. We'll see how this pans out.

Is that right though? We've been waiting for a ceiling, but he keeps defying the ceiling.
 

ND NYC

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if the goal for the (R)'s is "anyone but a (D)"...the GOP has a candidate that IMO would beat either Hillary or Bernie in a general election: Kasich.

their just too caught up in all the wrong issues, debates, infighting, petty squabbles to actually figure this out.
 

wizards8507

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if the goal for the (R)'s is "anyone but a (D)"...the GOP has a candidate that IMO would beat either Hillary or Bernie in a general election: Kasich.

their just too caught up in all the wrong issues, debates, infighting, petty squabbles to actually figure this out.
Every Republican candidate beats Hillary in the head-to-head polling except for Trump.

And the goal for the Republicans is NOT "anyone but a Democrat" anyways. That's how the party got squish Romney and squish McCain. That's how you get the candidate that doesn't enthuse the base like you're talking about.
 

ND NYC

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True. But here is why Trump is different. ...A large portion of the party will not vote for him. He has demonstrated a ceiling more so than any candidate in recent history because he's not a serious option to many. Have you seen the endorsement flood this week? Not going to the winner of SC. It's put the party in a panic and the money and endorsements are flowing rapidly, likely more rapidly than ever before away from the winner of SC and NH. We'll see how this pans out.

Money and endorsements seem to matter very little this time around.

in fact, the fewer endorsements Trump gets, the better off he may be.

his is the ultimate "throw the bums out" campaign.

and, he has plenty of $ if /when he needs it.
 

wizards8507

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Money and endorsements seem to matter very little this time around.

in fact, the fewer endorsements Trump gets, the better off he may be.

his is the ultimate "throw the bums out" campaign.

and, he has plenty of $ if /when he needs it.
Except every poll shows that he'd lose in a two-man race, whether the primary or the general election. He has a ceiling around 35% because the "throw the bums out" voters are outnumbered by the "we can't elect this fucking guy" voters.
 

irishfan

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What's the current polling saying for Nevada today?
have to think Rubio can and should do well in a Nevada.
Does he have a shot out there?
3rd, 5th and 2nd place finishes so far for him...he needs an actual win soon, as remember hearing that trump leads in 10 of the 14 super Tuesday states (not sure which ones).

Trump is supposed to win easily. CNN has him up 26%....it looks like another fight for 2nd place. Nevada is one of his better states.
 

ND NYC

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is GOP "winner take all" for the primaries, and "proportional" for their caucuses?
 

wizards8507

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Trump is supposed to win easily. CNN has him up 26%....it looks like another fight for 2nd place. Nevada is one of his better states.
I expect him to underperform those numbers. Nevada is notoriously inaccurate in its polling and Trump does poorly among late deciders. He should still win big though.

is GOP "winner take all" for the primaries, and "proportional" for their caucuses?
Not necessarily. They have all sorts of rules. Some are winner-take-all, some are proportional, some are winner-take-all by district, etc.
 
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