2015 FBS Polls

[ThePiombino]

Here's what drives me crazy:

Bama losses, drops 10 spots
Ole Miss wins, rises 12 spots

Same game yields +2 net gain for the two teams. This shouldn't be possible this high in the poll. This is the shit that fuels the self-fulfilling SEC prophecy.

 

[wizards8507]

Here's what drives me crazy:

Bama losses, drops 10 spots
Ole Miss wins, rises 12 spots

Same game yields +2 net gain for the two teams. This shouldn't be possible this high in the poll. This is the shit that fuels the self-fulfilling SEC prophecy.

You are woefully ignorant of how this whole thing works.

Stanford wins, rises 20 spots
USC loses, drops 13 spots

Same game yields +7 net gain for the two teams.

Pac 12 bias. Fuck the Pac 12.

Your argument might hold some water later in the season, but in week three we don't know jack shit and the changes are from a prior week poll in which we knew even less. The polls are not standings in which a win and a loss offset each other perfectly. The polls become better as each week goes by. The changes do not only reflect current-week results, but also clarifications of misconceptions held in previous weeks. Neither the week two nor week threw polls were perfect, so expecting the changes between them to perfectly reflect the outcomes of week three games is idiotic.

Yes, the polls are bad at this point in the season. But the SEC being overrated is far down the list of problems.

 

[johnnycando]

You are woefully ignorant of how this whole thing works.

Stanford wins, rises 20 spots
USC loses, drops 13 spots

Same game yields +7 net gain for the two teams.

Pac 12 bias. Fuck the Pac 12.

Your argument might hold some water later in the season, but in week three we don't know jack shit and the changes are from a prior week poll in which we knew even less. The polls are not standings in which a win and a loss offset each other perfectly. The polls become better as each week goes by. The changes do not only reflect current-week results, but also clarifications of misconceptions held in previous weeks. Neither the week two nor week threw polls were perfect, so expecting the changes between them to perfectly reflect the outcomes of week three games is idiotic.

Yes, the polls are bad at this point in the season. But the SEC being overrated is far down the list of problems.

That's considering Northwestern's loss which was a close contested battle. Against a team that's making noise.

Where's the quality in Bama and Ole Miss's schedule like in Stanford's previous matches?

What makes you an expert? Because you empty garbage cans for ESPN?

 

[GoIrish41]

That's considering Northwestern's loss which was a close contested battle. Against a team that's making noise.

Where's the quality in Bama and Ole Miss's schedule like in Stanford's previous matches?

What makes you an expert? Because you empty garbage cans for ESPN?

Now that is trash talking! LOL

 

[irishfanjho15]

My biggest problem with the coaches poll is that Auburn is still ranked. And Mizzou shouldn't be a top 25 team either.

 

[dad4aa]

So #5 Oregon loses by 3 on the road to #8 MSU in a back-and-forth contest until the end. #2 Alabama gets beat by 6 at home by #14 Ole Miss and is down by 20 points at one point in the game yet they are still ranked higher than Oregon. Explain.

 

[wizards8507]

That's considering Northwestern's loss which was a close contested battle. Against a team that's making noise.

Where's the quality in Bama and Ole Miss's schedule like in Stanford's previous matches?

That's not the argument that Piombino was making. He's been talking specifically about the delta from the week two polls to the week three polls. Stanford's loss to Northwestern was already reflected in the week two polls so it has no effect on the movement from week two to week three.

What makes you an expert? Because you empty garbage cans for ESPN?

Perfect. That's how I know I've won an argument on IE; when the person I'm debating resorts to "you work for ESPN so you're wrong and I hate you."

 

[wizards8507]

My biggest problem with the coaches poll is that Auburn is still ranked. And Mizzou shouldn't be a top 25 team either.

Auburn is awful. I'll freely acknowledge that's some SEC bias. If you're ranked with a loss, you better have lost to a ranked team in a close game and/or had an impressive win or two alongside it. There are too many undefeated teams to have a team like Auburn in the Top 25. Missouri doesn't bother me as much. At least they're 3-0.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Wait so everyone bitches about the SEC bias and that they're always overrated. Now that they brought Ole Miss to where they belong from being very underrated, it's a problem.
Alrighty then

 

[wizards8507]

So #5 Oregon loses by 3 on the road to #8 MSU in a back-and-forth contest until the end. #2 Alabama gets beat by 6 at home by #14 Ole Miss and is down by 20 points at one point in the game yet they are still ranked higher than Oregon. Explain.

You're right in that Oregon has the better loss. But Alabama has the better win. Georgia State and Eastern Washington < Wisconsin and Middle Tennessee. Oregon has a total of ZERO wins against Power 5 opponents. They're lucky to be ranked where they are considering their best win is a loss.

 

[wizards8507]

Wait so everyone bitches about the SEC bias and that they're always overrated. Now that they brought Ole Miss to where they belong from being very underrated, it's a problem.
Alrighty then

They also bitch about teams who schedule cupcakes yet Alabama should be ranked behind Oregon even though Alabama rolled Wisconsin and Oregon has yet to beat a Power Five team.

There are two egregiously overrated teams in these polls and nobody cares because it doesn't fit their Narrative.

 

[johnnycando]

Perfect. That's how I know I've won an argument on IE; when the person I'm debating resorts to "you work for ESPN so you're wrong and I hate you."

There is no debate.

An SEC bias exists. Ole Miss will lose horribly to some irrelevant SEC team, and they'll drop like a spot.

If ND loses to Clemson or USC, theyll drop to deep teens/twenties. Net loss will not be equal.

I hope someone misses the trash can with a banana peel.

 

[NDRock]

So who besides the SEC, makes those kind of jumps yearly?

Rhetorical question.

Looked a little further at the last four years. The teams with the largest single jump were as follows:

2014 - TCU jumped 16 spots in week 7

2013 - Auburn jumped 13 spots in week 9

2012 - Stanford jumped 12 spots in week 4

2011 - Four teams jumped 8 spots; Clemson week 5, Arkansas & Georgia Tech week 6, Michigan State in week 8.

Looks like 2 out of 7 were SEC teams. Probably above average but doesn't appear to be a huge bias IMO.

 

[Irish YJ]

Funny OM jumps TCU who beat them like 42-3 in the bowl last year....

 

[dad4aa]

Looked a little further at the last four years. The teams with the largest single jump were as follows:

2014 - TCU jumped 16 spots in week 7

2013 - Auburn jumped 13 spots in week 9

2012 - Stanford jumped 12 spots in week 4

2011 - Four teams jumped 8 spots; Clemson week 5, Arkansas & Georgia Tech week 6, Michigan State in week 8.

Looks like 2 out of 7 were SEC teams. Probably above average but doesn't appear to be a huge bias IMO.

Unless you are going to go through every teams jump and drop, every week for the past 4 years...I don't care about this. Anyone can cherry pick one team a year to try and prove a point. The complaint is not that ONLY SEC teams get big jumps. The complaint is that it happens WAY TOO OFTEN to SEC teams. Especially since the jumps happen when they beat each other.

 

[Cackalacky]

https://secexposed.wordpress.com/
Start with the September 2015 and work back for each monthly blog. Lots of interesting articles and links.

 

[Cackalacky]

https://secexposed.wordpress.com/2015/07/29/football-power-index-espns-metric-to-sway-the-public-and-polls-to-the-darkside/

The FPI is a clear indicator of the bias which ESPN has toward the Southeastern Conference, and the recent rankings show this trend of promotion and overhype will continue into this season. The poll is one of the many methods in which ESPN attempts to sway the public and even the CFB Playoff. Committee. The committee was even caught using one of the murky metrics of the ESPN ranking called “Game Control”, which led to Long doing a dance to explain why it wasn’t the ESPN metric. In politics there is an adage, “If you’re explaining, you’re losing.” The same applies to Long and ESPN, the more they attempt to explain why there is no SEC bias, the more apparent it becomes there really is. With week 1 a little more than a month away, be prepared to witness more proof and more denial.

 

[NDRock]

Unless you are going to go through every teams jump and drop, every week for the past 4 years...I don't care about this. Anyone can cherry pick one team a year to try and prove a point. The complaint is not that ONLY SEC teams get big jumps. The complaint is that it happens WAY TOO OFTEN to SEC teams. Especially since the jumps happen when they beat each other.

I'm glad you don't care about this but someone posted the following:

So who besides the SEC, makes those kind of jumps yearly?

Rhetorical question.

I thought it would be interesting to look at the last four years to see who really made big jumps in the polls. Feel free to do some better research and post the results. The ESPN poll that was linked earlier in this thread will give you a bunch of information on weekly movements.

BTW, I live in SEC country, hate the SEC and spend most of the Fall talking about how overrated they are.

 

[Cackalacky]

ESPN FPI this week.

Football Power IndexTeam Efficiencies
2015 Football Power Index
RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
1 Ole Miss, SEC 3-0 11.2 - 1.5 16.5 44.3 14 28.6
2 LSU, SEC 2-0 9.0 - 2.2 2.8 12.7 33 25.0
3 Georgia, SEC 3-0 10.5 - 2.2 4.8 32.0 31 24.9
4 Alabama, SEC 2-1 8.5 - 3.5 3.1 1.2 15 24.5
5 Baylor, Big 12 2-0 10.1 - 1.9 9.7 42.0 43 23.6
6 OSU, Big Ten 3-0 11.6 - 1.1 28.8 57.7 60 22.8
7 USC, Pac-12 2-1 9.1 - 3.5 3.5 33.8 3 22.5
8 TCU, Big 12 3-0 9.7 - 2.3 5.6 29.0 16 22.1
9 Notre Dame, FBS Indep. 3-0 10.1 - 1.9 9.0 -- 51 21.3
10 Texas A&M, SEC 3-0 9.1 - 3.0 0.5 3.0 20 20.3
11 Oklahoma, Big 12 3-0 9.3 - 2.7 2.9 18.1 26 19.7
12 Georgia Tech, ACC 2-1 8.5 - 4.0 1.7 28.5 1 19.2
13 Tennessee, SEC 2-1 8.2 - 4.0 0.4 5.7 34 18.3
14 FSU, ACC 3-0 9.9 - 2.6 2.1 25.6 50 17.7
15 Oregon, Pac-12 2-1 8.7 - 3.7 2.0 16.2 44 17.4
16 Michigan State, Big Ten 3-0 10.2 - 2.0 4.4 15.3 63 17.1
17 Stanford, Pac-12 2-1 8.8 - 3.8 2.1 25.2 37 16.7
18 UCLA, Pac-12 3-0 9.3 - 3.1 0.9 15.8 39 16.6
19 Clemson, ACC 3-0 9.3 - 3.2 1.2 21.9 30 16.4
20 West Virginia, Big 12 2-0 8.3 - 3.7 0.3 4.6 41 16.1
RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
21 Miss St, SEC 2-1 6.9 - 5.1 0.1 0.1 12 14.5
22 Cal, Pac-12 3-0 8.1 - 3.9 0.1 3.6 25 13.8
23 VT, ACC 2-1 8.0 - 4.2 0.8 8.7 38 13.8
24 UNC, ACC 2-1 8.2 - 4.0 0.6 8.3 56 13.5
25 Florida, SEC 3-0

 

[johnnycando]

ESPN FPI this week.

^
Lolololol

ESPN is not "biased."

Lmfao.

 

[Cackalacky]

From the links above:

The FPI ranking formula is virtually a mystery to all outside a few in Bristol, Connecticut. The only information published on how the rankings are calculated is very vague and questionable in accuracy. The only explanations for the ranking system we could find from ESPN are these….

The previous year’s performance
“OFFENSE: Offensive efficiency in terms of offense’s contribution to scoring margin on all its plays, adjusted for strength of opposing defenses* faced.
DEFENSE: Defensive efficiency in terms of defense’s contribution to scoring margin on all its plays, adjusted for strength of opposing offenses* faced.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Special teams efficiency in terms of special teams’ contribution to scoring margin on all its plays, adjusted for strength of opposing special teams* faced.
OVERALL: Overall net efficiency, summing up adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiencies; a measure of scoring margin per game, adjusted for schedule*.”
Returning starters, Starting QB return counts most
Coach changes, positive if last year was poor, negative if prior year was good
Recruiting rankings
(*It should be noted that because every SEC team is automatically rated as a higher average level of difficulty compared to teams from other conferences, it allows for SEC teams to always be ranked higher regardless of in-game statistics.)

 

[NDRock]

ESPN FPI this week.

Surprised they didn't sneak Missouri in there in the top 10.

 

[Cackalacky]

This week UT is #13in ESPN FPI

Tennessee – #13

Tennessee Stats.jpg

Moderate improvement
Tennessee showed some improvement last season, because they actually achieved a winning record (7-6). But does that justify a jump to #13???
Those 7 wins must have been mighty impressive, and those 6 losses had better been “quality losses” (borrowed the SEC term right there). However that’s not the case. The best win Tennessee had last season was against South Carolina. Yes, 7-6 South Carolina, the same one that was blown out week one by TAMU, and never recovered. The only other power 5 wins were against Iowa (7-6), Kentucky, and Vandy. In terms of losses, there were no games that they should have won, except for maybe Florida. The improvement in stats can be attributed to a weaker conference schedule in 2014.
No standout players
Tennessee ranks 14th in the last 4 years in recruiting and has a conference high 18 players with starting experience returning in 2015. However they had no stand out players returning from last year on offense or defense other than WR Pig Howard (698 yards, 5 TDs) and DL Derek Barnett (20.5 TFL).The “18” number is a bit misleading. Tennessee started more games with Justin Worley last year, who accumulated more yards and TDs than Joshua Dobbs, which played in the final 6 games of the year. Dobbs will return this year, however we don’t classify him in the same realm as 13+ game returning starter.
Neither Offense or Defense is remotely dominant
Tennessee played 10 games against Power 5 teams in 2014, and averaged 368 yards per game (150 rushing, 218 passing) offensively. These are not dominant, but rather downright pedestrian numbers. Defensively, the Vols allowed an average 396 yards per game (184 rushing, 212passing). The performance is again VERY pedestrian, and overall alarming that they were outgained by an average of 28 yards per game. With their primary competition in the SEC East having poor seasons, these stats reflect that Tennessee still is nowhere near ready to compete on a national level.

Bottom Line
We are not saying that a team which has shown improvement on the field does not deserve to benefit the following year from a bump in the preseason ranking. However, going from unranked to top 15 after a 7-6 season without any significant or impressive wins is ridiculous. Tennessee hasn’t won more than 7 games in a season since Phillip Fulmer in 2007, and only twice since then have had winning seasons, 2009 and 2014. The SEC has at least 3 teams every year which are ranked FAR too high preseason, and in 2015 it looks like Tennessee will be in the group.

 

[Cackalacky]

TAMU, ARK, ALABAMA

TAMU – #8

TAMU Stats.jpg

Downward trend
Texas A&M started off 2014 strong by throttling South Carolina. After that, the Aggies fell on their face, ending with an 8-5 record and in hindsight, no impressive wins. South Carolina was #9 when the season started, however they lost 5 more games after TAMU, ending with a 7-6 record. Auburn was #3 at the time of the TAMU victory, however dropped 3 more games and finished 8-5. Every above average team TAMU faced, they lost. Even losing to Mizzou (you know the SEC East champ that lost handily to Indiana). Their defense showed very little improvement, while the offense went into full reverse.
Still no defense
505 yards allowed average vs Power 5 competition. Enough said.
Bottom Line
Texas A&M return 15 starters, 8 Offense and 7 Defense, and are ranked #11 in the past 4 years for recruiting. With this team, unless there is a do-it-all Manziel under center, they will struggle. And so far, the good recruiting over 4 years has done nothing to help this awful defense, so don’t expect a miracle turn around.
Texas A&M started last season ranked #9 in the AP poll, even though they had lost their 2 best (and only) offensive weapons in QB Johnny Manziel and WR Mike Evans, and their defense showed no signs leading toward improvement. TAMU was grossly overrated last season, which helped mediocre teams like Ole Miss and Miss St make unprecedented leaps up the rankings to #1. It appears the same is to be said again about TAMU in 2015.
Arkansas – #10

Arkansas Stats.jpg

Last year wasn’t really all that impressive
After starting off rough, Arkansas’ defense and offense clicked and improved by mid-season which led to them ending with a winning season. However, who did they really beat in the second half of the season to justify a #10 ranking this year? The answer is LSU and Ole Miss, 2 mediocre teams. LSU finished 8-5, lost their bowl game, and started the season squeaking our a 4 point win over the eventual big 10 runner-up Wisconsin (remember when Wisconsin was EASILY shut out 59-0 in the Big 10 championship). Ole Miss had a few marquee wins, all in conference, and ended the season getting CRUSHED by TCU. They only managing 6 points in garbage time, and their heralded “Landshark” defense was exposed to be a fraud of the SEC biased media, allowing 42 points and 423 yards.
Bottom Line
Last season Arkansas showed statistical improvement over Power 5 opponents offensively and defensively and obtained its first winning season since 2011. This year they return 15 starters, and rank 26th in a 4 year average recruitment ranking. However this is not reason enough to put Arkansas at 10 preseason. How about they prove themselves, allow them to climb the polls like everyone else rather than just getting the benefit of the doubt.
Alabama – #2

Bama Returning Starters.jpg

Bama Stats.jpg

Offense still isn’t proven & loses its best player
Lane Kiffin took over as offensive coordinator and increased production, an average of 30 yards per game increase. However when looking at Power 5 competition, there was 2 point per game average decrease, and against power 5 competition, there was a 10 yard per game decrease and 3 point per game decrease. The rushing game took a big step backwards, and the passing game showed a minimal increase in production. The vast majority of the passing game was due to Amari Cooper (45% receiving yards, 50% passing TDs). With his departure to the NFL, in addition to only 4 returning starters on offense (1RB, 1WR/TE, 2OL), Kiffin will be challenged with operating the offense at a high level without an elite weapon to carry the offense and losing 5 of the top 7 all-purpose yard leaders.
Defensively, there was a significant drop-off with allowing 52 more total yards per game average.
Cant beat elite OOC Competition
Alabama has lost to the last 4 top 5 opponents it has faced. The past 2 bowl games they entered as heavy favorites against lower ranked teams, and were crushed by both. The current year’s schedule, they only face one 1 PW 5 out of conference, Wisconsin who will likely be a middle of the road Big10 team this year.
Bottom Line
Alabama has been a good team year in and year out since 2008. However, they have not been an elite team every year, including the past 2. They return only 11 players, 4 offense and 7 defense, but rank #1 in recruiting over a 4 year average. Lane Kiffins offense is still unproven, and the young talent is not likely to make up for a 1700 yard receiver. With a drop off on both defense and offense, the loss of the cornerstone of the offense, and an expert con-artist as an OC, there is no justification to place Alabama at #2 other than “because its Alabama”.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

2015 FBS Polls

^

Lolololol



ESPN is not "biased."



Lmfao.

The biggest load of manure is ESPN passing these rankings off as credible and accurate, and pushing people who make REAL decisions to use them. I would sincerely hope anyone who has functioning brain cells would completely disregard these "rankings."

 

[dad4aa]

I'm glad you don't care about this .

Read my whole post. Much like your argument you took it out of context. Just to be clear, this was my entire post:

"Unless you are going to go through every teams jump and drop, every week for the past 4 years...I don't care about this. Anyone can cherry pick one team a year to try and prove a point. The complaint is not that ONLY SEC teams get big jumps. The complaint is that it happens WAY TOO OFTEN to SEC teams. Especially since the jumps happen when they beat each other."

Picking one team each year outside of the SEC that made a big jump does not prove there is no SEC bias. In order to use this type of data to prove no SEC bias, you would need every team from every week. If you would have showed something like "there were 17 times Pac-12 teams jumped 8 spots or more, 19 times Big 10 teams jumped 8 spots or more and 22 times SEC jumped 8 spots or more"...that would show no SEC bias. My guess is SEC teams average jump is 2-3 times all other conferences combined.

 

[johnnycando]

Looked a little further at the last four years. The teams with the largest single jump were as follows:

2014 - TCU jumped 16 spots in week 7

2013 - Auburn jumped 13 spots in week 9

2012 - Stanford jumped 12 spots in week 4

2011 - Four teams jumped 8 spots; Clemson week 5, Arkansas & Georgia Tech week 6, Michigan State in week 8.

Looks like 2 out of 7 were SEC teams. Probably above average but doesn't appear to be a huge bias IMO.

I'm glad you don't care about this but someone posted the following:



I thought it would be interesting to look at the last four years to see who really made big jumps in the polls. Feel free to do some better research and post the results. The ESPN poll that was linked earlier in this thread will give you a bunch of information on weekly movements.

BTW, I live in SEC country, hate the SEC and spend most of the Fall talking about how overrated they are.

Surprised they didn't sneak Missouri in there in the top 10.

Change of heart?

 

[Irish#1]

I really don't know who should be ranked where, but I've seen OSU, MSU, Bama, Ole Miss, USC, Stanford and I haven't seen a team yet that we can't hang with.

 

[Cackalacky]

Y'all tell me when to stop.

 

[stlnd01]

The SEC bias argument is such a silly one for one that happens every year.

Yes, half the SEC is in the top ten at this point in the season (or at least it feels that way). And yes that's sort of ridiculous. But they'll all play each other, and most of them will wind up with at least two losses.

Obviously any undefeated will make the top four (as they should) and a one-loss will be in the mix with the rest (as they should). Frankly I'd agree that the second-best team in the SEC is probably better than anyone in the Big 12 or ACC, at least, most years.

But this big pile of highly-ranked SEC teams will thin out just like it always does before the season is through. And until then it's all just something to talk about, something SEC fans like to talk about more than anyone else.