Luck of the Irish?
If you haven’t been living under a rock, you’ve surely heard by now that Notre Dame is actually fielding a terrible football team in 2013, and last year rode an insane streak of blind dumb luck to a 12-0 regular season. According ESPN, Sports Illustrated, and really every media entity imaginable, Notre Dame owes its success to some combination of golden horseshoes, four leaf clovers, and shooting stars. That’s why 5 out of 7 Sports Illustrated writers have picked Notre Dame as their “flop” team for this year. And ESPN College GameDay made sure to put up a graphic dedicated to Notre Dame’s five single-score wins as they discussed why Notre Dame would be “lucky” to win 8 games this year against a daunting schedule.
According to every network analyst sans Lou Holtz, all of that 2012 magic must surely have run out when the proverbial clock struck midnight on January 7th, 2013 as Alabama stomped all over the Irish’s previously unblemished record. So short of Brian Kelly performing regular sacrifices to Hermes, Tyche, and all the other gods of luck, there is effectively a 0% chance that Notre Dame has good season against a schedule that ranks among one of the toughest in the nation. Never mind that the concept of “luck” or “chance” is extremely hard to quantify in sports… these pundits point to three anecdotes as irrefutable evidence of Notre Dame’s seemingly outrageous good fortune:
1. The controversial end to the Stanford game.
2. The missed field goal against Pitt.
3. The high number of close wins during the 2012 season.
The argument for “luck” in the Stanford game hinges on Stanford getting stopped at the goal line on 4th down after being stoned the previous 3 plays from the 2 yard line. On one hand, many believe Stepfan Taylor got in even though the call on the field was reviewed and upheld. On the other hand, Stanford was “lucky” to even have the opportunity to tie the game up and send it into a second overtime. Notre Dame held Stanford to an anemic 272 yards of offense and Stanford didn’t score an offensive TD all game long. Their lone score came on a defensive fumble recovery. Notre Dame out gained Stanford by nearly 30%, had a time of possession edge, got incredibly unlucky with a botched field goal at the Stanford 10 yard line, was unlucky to have Golson knocked out with a concussion in the 4th quarter as Notre Dame moved the ball down to the Stanford 5 and looked to be going in for the game winning TD, and was unlucky on the OT coin toss. So who actually got lucky during that game?
Against Pitt, Notre Dame certainly was “lucky” to have the Pitt kicker shank a very makeable field goal. There is no doubt about that. But Pitt was Ritchie Rich level fortunate to even be in that situation. The truth is that Notre Dame dominated Pitt, especially in the second half. Overall, Notre Dame out gained Pitt 522 to 308. That is a truly ridiculous margin for the score to be as close as it was. Pitt got huge breaks throughout the game. One of the biggest breaks was Cierre Wood mysteriously fumbling the ball while walking untouched into the endzone, which in turn set up Pitt’s field goal attempt to win it all. Additionally, the game never would have gone to OT in the first place had Kyle Brindza not missed a very makeable field goal of his own during regulation, much less an extra point. Notre Dame also maintained over a 10 minute time of possession edge and ran literally twice as many plays as the Panthers. So I’ll ask again, who actually got lucky during that game?
The final sticking point is that “Notre Dame had so many close wins they easily could’ve been a 9-3 or 8-4 team.” The part about this that is maddening is that nearly every single other team that is ranked high this year had numerous close calls but gets a complete free pass. Here is a breakdown of the chief offenders ranked above Notre Dame who are garnering high praise as teams likely to make a title run and possibly beat Alabama:
• #2 Ohio State – 6 one-score wins – embarrassing performances against Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State, Cal, and no post season due to infractions.
• #4 Stanford – 8 one-score wins, 2 losses – embarrassing performances against SJSU, Washington State, Arizona, and Washington.
• #9 Louisville – 6 one-score wins, 2 losses – embarrassing performances against Florida International, Southern Miss, South Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, and Rutgers. Seriously.
For comparison, #14 Notre Dame had 5 one-score wins with shaky performances against Purdue, Pitt, and BYU. Draw your own conclusions from the above on whether Notre Dame is being sold short relative to their peers.
It’s a bit of a mystery why when Louisville beats Florida people go “wow, Louisville is really good!” instead of going “Florida just lost to a team that is coming off a blow out by Syracuse, followed by a loss to 5-7 UCONN and a 3 point squeaker over Rutgers. And earlier in the year Louisville had a 4 point nail biter against 0-12 Southern Miss. Maybe Florida isn’t as good as we thought.” No team in the country had more close wins than Stanford, so where is their ESPN segment on “luck”? Where was Ohio State’s graphic about 6 single-score wins? Where was the talk about them giving up nearly 50 points to Indiana? Or needing a miracle comeback and OT against Purdue?
The bottom line is that if you want to criticize Notre Dame because you don’t believe in Tommy Rees, or you think Te’o will be too hard to replace, or the schedule is too difficult, or any myriad of other rational reasons that is perfectly legitimate stance to take. But belittling the 2013 Notre Dame team for getting “lucky” last year while turning a blind eye to the “luck” of every single other team in CFB is, at best, lazy and ignorant. At worst, it’s tantamount to being a “hater” and looking for any excuse to degrade Notre Dame’s prognosis for this season.
The silver lining is that the on field product gets to do the talking now. The team will be measured on how they perform against Michigan, Oklahoma, ASU, USC, Stanford, and the like. The bad news is that the polls are the end-all, be-all for post season aspirations. Notre Dame has seemingly no chance to pass either Ohio State or Louisville simply because of where they started, and Louisville literally doesn’t play a single ranked team all year. Their toughest opponent is Cincinnati and their third strongest opponent is Temple. Yes, you read that correctly. Notre Dame’s week 1 cupcake is a marquis “tough” game for the Cardinals. They get a BCS AQ from playing in what remains of the Big East and have a legitimate title shot due to their lofty pre-season ranking. How’s that for “luck?”