SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION
— In a nutshell: Another undefeated season seems out of range for this team, though let's remember: We all thought the same a year ago. There's something to be said of a team that battles against the tides to win close game after close game, much like Kansas State in 2011 – because it's often not a fluke, but rather a sign that a squad has the toughness, leadership and coaching to thrive in the midst of adversity. In other words, I don't buy into the idea that the Irish slide in 2013 solely because they are no longer able to corral the lucky bounce; I think enough talent and experience returns this fall to ensure that ND continues to fare better than the opposition in game-changing pressure situations.
This team is still a championship contender. Will ND play for another title? I don't think so, but to say this team can't run the gauntlet again in 2013 and win 11 or 12 games ignores the roster's massive growth during the last 24 months. Whether the Irish can post another banner year depends almost solely on the play of this offense, which is rightfully viewed with some degree of skepticism heading into the opener. Skepticism might be too strong – how about concern? Whether Rees can deliver, avoiding interceptions and hitting downfield, is a concern. Whether the young core at receiver can supply depth is a concern. The depth behind Atkinson III is somewhat concerning, though Bryant can alleviate this issue with a strong fall camp. The offense is a concern, but it's still good enough to help ND win at least eight games during the regular season.
There are no questions on defense, especially with Day thriving up front and the number of options along the second level. What might be lacking is the big play, something Te'o delivered in spades, and this defense must continue to force mistakes to help bolster the offense. That's the theme: ND is a very similar team to a year ago, merely less explosive – particularly on offense. So the range of wins runs from eight on the low end to 12 on the high end, with the Irish likely falling in the middle. My projection: ND goes 9-3, losing three games from the group of Michigan, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Arizona State, USC, BYU and Stanford. That should be enough to put the Irish right in the mix for an at-large BCS bid.
