'16 CA QB Ian Book (Notre Dame Signed NLI)

[OhioIrish31]

If Book keeps doing exactly what he's doing and can also somehow complete just 1 or 2 of those long balls each game going forward...big things can happen! We may run into a team that is successful at taking away the dink and dunk short passing game that has been so effective. Need to keep the d-backs honest. IMO

PS...we used to be surprised when Wimbush completed a pass...now we are surprised when Book doesn't. Very different!

 

[Irish YJ]

I'm really not, I'm just reinforcing what I said --


I never said you were wrong or crazy or anything like that, just that the idea that "subtract half the sacks and the INT and he has a great QBR" is not entirely true. Those plays sure as heck weren't worth 30+ points of QBR, and the primary driver of his score was him playing like butt not things outside of his control.



To both those points, consider this passage --

Consequently, it already tries to adjust for exactly the things you are talking about. Yes, someone throwing nothing but screens is going to get less credit for the gains, but that's intentional. That doesn't necessarily mean they're "disadvantaged" in trying to get a good grade out of 100 over the course of the game. For example, someone throwing short passes that goes 35/40 for 300 yards & 3 TDs is likely to have a similar 90+ grade to someone who goes 20/30 for 300 yards & 3 TDs. Why? Because the player pushing the ball down the field gets more EPA per throw, but he's also being less efficient and likely missing more throws to get to those numbers. Baked in there is whether or not the OL and WRs are playing well.

So...
1. The player with a vertical passing game only has an "advantage" if it's effective on a YPA basis, and if the player doing the short passing game is inefficient (i.e. misses a fair amount of throws).

2. The opposite of this should be true, because you are supposed to get more credit for completing throws under duress.

on 2 above, you get less credit (adjustment) for a team like Pitt for example, when they rise to the occasion, than a team that comes in with more D "weight". you get more credit for completing under duress, but less if it's a team that doesn't rank highly on D. and also, a QB getting sacked (my point about QBs with good or bad OL) takes a major hit.

on 1 above, Book is very efficient, but gets less credit off the bat regardless for screens when comparing QBs with the exact same stats, but throws less screens.

i understand the point you are trying to make, but we'll just need to agree to disagree. QBR IMHO rewards QBs that throw the deep ball, have great OLs, and are mobile. A short throw pocket passer with a lot of screen calls, and with a less than stellar OL will always score lower on QBR with the same raw passing yards and TDs. And that's fine. It's just another measurement like standard QB Rating. I just hope folks understand the differences. Most don't.

 

[EvilleIrish]

So apparently Book is only .2 off the record for completion percentage in a season? Wild.

 

[Irish YJ]

So apparently Book is only .2 off the record for completion percentage in a season? Wild.

yup. it'll be something fun to follow the rest of the year. hope he keeps working on the long ball.

 

[Irish#1]

I feel a bit bad for Wimbush, but it really makes me wonder how Book can be so spot on with his passing, be manageable with the run, and Wimbush still came out of camp as the starter? Maybe they felt like he was going to work better against Michigan or that we needed an experienced QB, I don't know....but I credit Reesus for making the switch and showing Book the way.

With the up and down press from pre-season practice, I'm also confused.
I think BK's decision to stay with him was a mix of loyalty/experience/wheels.
I hate it for BW too. Still wish they could somehow get him involved in a non-QB roll.
I just hope he goes somewhere that embraces him and he can ball the F out.

Wimbush is that high priced sports car that when it's on, is fast and can handle the curves it comes across, but most of the time it has some problems. You don't trust it to take it on vacation, so you park it.

 

[Irish#1]

If Book keeps doing exactly what he's doing and can also somehow complete just 1 or 2 of those long balls each game going forward...big things can happen! We may run into a team that is successful at taking away the dink and dunk short passing game that has been so effective. Need to keep the d-backs honest. IMO

PS...we used to be surprised when Wimbush completed a pass...now we are surprised when Book doesn't. Very different!

Yes, Book is essentially a very good game manager.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

If Book keeps doing exactly what he's doing and can also somehow complete just 1 or 2 of those long balls each game going forward...big things can happen! We may run into a team that is successful at taking away the dink and dunk short passing game that has been so effective. Need to keep the d-backs honest. IMO

PS...we used to be surprised when Wimbush completed a pass...now we are surprised when Book doesn't. Very different!

That's why I still prefer BW...the inconsistency and suspense made it more exciting as the ball sailed through the air. Suspense > consistency.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

yup. it'll be something fun to follow the rest of the year. hope he keeps working on the long ball.

I mean it was a Navy defense...but 82 freakin' percent on Saturday! Blew my mind when I read the box score. That's impressive no matter who you play, and he still threw for over 300.

And he missed Jafar for a sure TD. He was under a little pressure and held on to the ball a fraction too long, otherwise that was 6.

If he continues to work on that deep ball and adds that element to the his game more consistently, he will be dynamic. For now, he just has to keep doing what he's doing. It'll come.

 

[koonja]

Yes, Book is essentially a very good game manager.

Whoa, I don't think he's a game manager. He's a playmaker on our offense. He's a weapon. It's rare that a CFB QB sees the entire field and finds the opening virtually every time. He keeps everyone involved and makes you guard every route. Then he can take off and run. He's more than a game manager IMO.

 

[#1rish]

Bk really should utilize BW the way Payton and the Saints use Taysom Hill. Although recently it's been a little too excessive.

 

[EvilleIrish]

Whoa, I don't think he's a game manager. He's a playmaker on our offense. He's a weapon. It's rare that a CFB QB sees the entire field and finds the opening virtually every time. He keeps everyone involved and makes you guard every route. Then he can take off and run. He's more than a game manager IMO.

Couldn't agree more. Alex Hornibrook at Wisconsin is a game manager. Book is a difference maker.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

^This lol.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

Books biggest weakness, besides the deep ball are linebackers dropping underneath in coverage. I wonder how Book would perform if teams swapped back and forth between blitzing and dropping their LBs underneath routes in coverage.

He's been nothing short of spectacular thus far.

 

[irishog77]

Books biggest weakness, besides the deep ball are linebackers dropping underneath in coverage. I wonder how Book would perform if teams swapped back and forth between blitzing and dropping their LBs underneath routes in coverage.

He's been nothing short of spectacular thus far.

I agree with this...and somewhat with Irish#1's idea that Book is a very good game manager.

Book has been great. But his INT's and some other miscues have demonstrated that he's not always reading defenses, but rather, trying to simply go with a pre-snap notion. I think as teams change and disguise coverages, he'll have some struggles. I think a large portion of his completion percentage has been based on his ability to execute the Long/Kelly offense.

Alex Smith is a guy in the pros who has won a lot of games, been mostly accurate, and has athletic/running/scrambling ability. He's also considered a game manager. I see Book in this mold (granted, we still have a relatively small sample size to go off of). I think he can execute the hell out of an offense, is accurate, and has pretty good running/scrambling abilities. His ability to look downfield during/after scrambling is great too. If coverages confuse him and/or the gameplan isn't great, I'm not sold (yet) that he can go out and win games though. Thus, I think a title of game manager is probably appropriate. It's not a knock on Book. Can he continue to grow and evolve? I don't know. I don't think any of us do.

A lot of QB's from OU, Texas Tech, Washington State, and other spread passing teams have put up huge numbers and been very accurate, but have also not been all-world QB's- they've just executed the offense well. They've been good game managers.

 

[Irish#1]

I agree with this...and somewhat with Irish#1's idea that Book is a very good game manager.

Book has been great. But his INT's and some other miscues have demonstrated that he's not always reading defenses, but rather, trying to simply go with a pre-snap notion. I think as teams change and disguise coverages, he'll have some struggles. I think a large portion of his completion percentage has been based on his ability to execute the Long/Kelly offense.

Alex Smith is a guy in the pros who has won a lot of games, been mostly accurate, and has athletic/running/scrambling ability. He's also considered a game manager. I see Book in this mold (granted, we still have a relatively small sample size to go off of). I think he can execute the hell out of an offense, is accurate, and has pretty good running/scrambling abilities. His ability to look downfield during/after scrambling is great too. If coverages confuse him and/or the gameplan isn't great, I'm not sold (yet) that he can go out and win games though. Thus, I think a title of game manager is probably appropriate. It's not a knock on Book. Can he continue to grow and evolve? I don't know. I don't think any of us do.

A lot of QB's from OU, Texas Tech, Washington State, and other spread passing teams have put up huge numbers and been very accurate, but have also not been all-world QB's- they've just executed the offense well. They've been good game managers.

This

My definition of a game manager:
1) Won't beat you with the deep ball
2) Won't thread the needle between a couple of defenders with his rocket arm
3) Sees the field well
4) Takes what is given to him
5) Reads D pre-snap to get into the right play
6) Can use his legs to help keep the drive alive, but isn't counted on to do it by design
7) Doesn't make many mistakes

Calling Book a game manager isn't a bad thing. John Huarte won a Heisman and was essentially a game manager for Ara.

 

[bkess8]

Couldn't agree more. Alex Hornibrook at Wisconsin is a game manager. Book is a difference maker.

You can add Joe Burrow at LSU to this list also!

 

[T Town Tommy]

Right now Book is a winner and that's all that matters.

 

[Irish#1]

Right now Book is a winner and that's all that matters.

+1

 

[greyhammer90]

If you look at what Minshew is doing at WSU (very accurate and efficient) and consider that Book was comitted to WSU I think ND’s QB recruiting strategy for the foreseeable future needs to be poach any QB Mike Leach is trying to recruit.

Not gonna lie, that's actually a pretty good idea. There are some coaches that have shown repeatedly that they know how to spot exactly what you need in a QB.

 

[Irish YJ]

Book now 6th in QBR, and 7 in QB Rating.
Still #1 in accuracy.

 

[ndcoltsfan2010]

Book now 6th in QBR, and 7 in QB Rating.
Still #1 in accuracy.

Awesome!!!!

 

[NDMIA]

Book now 6th in QBR, and 7 in QB Rating.
Still #1 in accuracy.

That’s fantastic. Book is having a tremendous year. It would be pretty special to see Bama, Oklahoma, ND, and West Virginia in it cause it would be an amazing crop of QB’s playing. Although Trevor Lawrence isn’t a slouch in his own right.

Btw, Kyler Murray should be ahead of Tua in the heisman campaign now. More yards, more rushing yards, more total TD’s and passing TD’s, better quarterback rating, tied at QBR, and also way way way more important to his team’s success than Tua. You take Tua off of Bama and they are undefeated with their schedule. You take Kyler Murray off and they’d be in some trouble.

 

[DONTH8]

That’s fantastic. Book is having a tremendous year. It would be pretty special to see Bama, Oklahoma, ND, and West Virginia in it cause it would be an amazing crop of QB’s playing. Although Trevor Lawrence isn’t a slouch in his own right.

Btw, Kyler Murray should be ahead of Tua in the heisman campaign now. More yards, more rushing yards, more total TD’s and passing TD’s, better quarterback rating, tied at QBR, and also way way way more important to his team’s success than Tua. You take Tua off of Bama and they are undefeated with their schedule. You take Kyler Murray off and they’d be in some trouble.

Problem is Tua has accumulated most of his stats without a 4th quarter, and while not being pushed by the other team.

But I understand the argument and I tend to agree with you.

 

[NDMIA]

Problem is Tua has accumulated most of his stats without a 4th quarter, and while not being pushed by the other team.

But I understand the argument and I tend to agree with you.

Tua’s stats aren’t as good as Kyler’s in totals, but he absolutely has been doing the damage in 3 quarters, but I think Kyler has been sensational against some solid teams while Tua’s been sensational against mostly bad teams and wasn’t even bothered by LSU at all even tho he had no knee and no crotch remaining, so yes he’s good, but Kyler is more valuable to me. Apples to oranges argument right now tho. Both exceptional talents and a cut above everyone else.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

Book now 6th in QBR, and 7 in QB Rating.
Still #1 in accuracy.

Incredible. Where are the people that said Kelly was incapable of developing a QB? Or that everyone regressed under him? It'd be nice to see those posters publicly eat some crow.

 

[T-Boone]

During his radio program, did I hear Coach Brian Kelly allude to the possibility of getting Wimbush involved in the running game later on in the season?
Yes I did.
He said Wimbush would be one of our best running backs.
Also, go Book.

 

[BabyIrish]

During his radio program, did I hear Coach Brian Kelly allude to the possibility of getting Wimbush involved in the running game later on in the season?
Yes I did.
He said Wimbush would be one of our best running backs.
Also, go Book.

Ian Book in shotgun with Williams to his left and Wimbush to his right. Look Out!

 

[NDRock]

Incredible. Where are the people that said Kelly was incapable of developing a QB? Or that everyone regressed under him? It'd be nice to see those posters publicly eat some crow.

Well, to be fair they are probably watching tape from Kelly's first 8 1/4 years here. Obviously, the QB position hasn't been all bad under Kelly but definitely inconsistent and often underwhelming.

 

[zelezo vlk]

Do y'all remember when people were mad for taking Book thinking it would push Hunter Johnson away?

 

[ab2cmiller]

Do y'all remember when people were mad for taking Book thinking it would push Hunter Johnson away?

No, I don't remember that. My recollection was that we thought Ian Book wasn't a highly rated recruit and thus would not scare away any of the top rated quarterbacks. Most thought he would be a decent backup quarterback with some thinking he could be more, mostly relying on Sanford's evaluation.

Most thought Book was simply a bridge between Wimbush in 15" and another stud quarterback in 17'