'14 OH QB DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame Signee)

[BobbyMac]

Sometimes it is just about being older and more mature.

OK, sometimes. Now perfect a way to precisely measure when a player matures "enough" by the end of his 3rd year and you'll make millions with the Boggerlick Test. Maybe you've already devised said test and Harbaugh got caught taking the beta version a few weeks back.:smilewink

I could turn the argument around and say that a kid in a college setting may have less distractions than one in a pro environment, also.

College distractions are mandatory. Professional distractions are chosen.

 

[BobbyMac]

???? Alex Smith is not a bust....And there is nothing 1 year in college would have done to change his NFL career dramatically.

You should be using Jamarcus Russell as an example of a #1 bust...

This and I repeat:

Nice? #1 draft pick. 125 career starts. 15 games over .500. A Pro-Bowl and $100M (?) in earnings?

More like:

 

[BobbyMac]

What percentage of #1 OA's eligible for the HOF are in?

For Alex Smith to be a bust, it better be 75%.

 

[dwshade]

I don't generally disagree with this but no one told Goff that this year or Winston that last year. both left a year on the table. There have been numerous guys recently with 5th years available that didn't use them. Luck is one of them and he obviously would have been #1 or #2 if he came out after his RS Soph year with Newton.

So saying any scout would tell you a QB should stay isn't a fact or a consensus.

Kizer wouldn't be using a 5th year just his normal 4th year. Luck was in college four years just like all the other guys I mentioned,. Kizer has only been in college three years. He would be 21 year old rookie QB which you almost never see in the NFL. BTW a lot of people advised Goff he should stay in school but he chose not too. Winston pretty much had to leave given the hot water he was in in Tallahassee.

 

[dwshade]

OK, sometimes. Now perfect a way to precisely measure when a player matures "enough" by the end of his 3rd year and you'll make millions with the Boggerlick Test. Maybe you've already devised said test and Harbaugh got caught taking the beta version a few weeks back.:smilewink



College distractions are mandatory. Professional distractions are chosen.

Nonsense. Everyone has distractions in life. Doesn't matter what age you are.

 

[dwshade]

Alternatively you have Matt Barkley who was a sure fire top 5 pick after his Jr year, but returned to USC and cost himself about 30 mil in guaranteed money. If Kizer is gonna get top tier money thrown at him, he should go. Even if he flames out, he'll be rich as hell and never have to work a day in his life.

Again it's all about what a kid wants to accomplish. Peyton Manning could have come out after his JR. year and been the #1 pick. But he loved college life and went back for his SR. year. Drew Brees could have come out one year earlier but thought it was more important to him to finish school and get his degree.

 

[BobbyMac]

Kizer wouldn't be using a 5th year just his normal 4th year. Luck was in college four years just like all the other guys I mentioned,. Kizer has only been in college three years. He would be 21 year old rookie QB which you almost never see in the NFL. BTW a lot of people advised Goff he should stay in school but he chose not too. Winston pretty much had to leave given the hot water he was in in Tallahassee.

So something magical happens after your 4th year as opposed to your 3rd? Does something magical happen after year 5? Where's the metrics? Let me give you the only metrics that counts: Goff and Winston went #1. It doesn't get any better than that, take the money, become a professional and work on your craft 24/7/365.

Can't believe we're having this conversation.

 

[ACamp1900]

I still can't wrap my mind around DK being seriously looked at as #1 overall..... not knocking, like DK, just sayin.

 

[Meatloaf]

Again it's all about what a kid wants to accomplish. Peyton Manning could have come out after his JR. year and been the #1 pick. But he loved college life and went back for his SR. year. Drew Brees could have come out one year earlier but thought it was more important to him to finish school and get his degree.

I accept the fact that we're just not going to agree on this, but your thinking that Kizer should come back because of a combination of altruism and experience when tens of millions of dollars could be staring him in the face is naive. It's not nearly as cut and dry of a decision as you make it out to be and there's a definite monetary downside that could result if he returns for his senior year. Every year across many positions, there are guys that return, regress or get injured and cost themselves heaps of money in the process.

 

[ND NYC]

who is saying that Kizer might be going #1?
that's just crazy talk IMO.

BUT

if true, or even #2 overall....then he HAS to go.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Any NFL scout would tell you a QB should stay in college and continue to get experience and work on fundamentals. NFL teams like QB's who have a lot of college starting experience.

Kizer will have 2 years under his belt after this. That pretty experienced for college.

 

[BoredIrish]

Kizer absolutely has to go.

The longer you stick around, the longer the NFL has to pick your game apart. The same traits that are viewed as "upside" become weaknesses.

If Deshaun Watson had gone out after last years championship game, he would have been the consensus #1. Now people just look for faults in his game. Same thing happened to Brady Quinn... and more recently Cardale Jones.

Kizer is gone. I truly believe that last year's class changed ND football forever. When Jaylon got injured, it just solidified things in the minds of guys like Stanley, Fuller and Procise... and now based on the success of guys like Stanley and Fuller after having left early, ND football will now resemble USC alot more than Stanford. I also think Kelly knows this, which is why he doesn't think twice about burning redshirt years anymore.

 

[BobbyMac]

Plus who's to say a couple Carson Wentz' don't show up this year or next? Kaaya could stay an extra year with Richt which would be more beneficial than DK staying with the ND staff.. Rosen will be eligible too.

On top of Watson, throw in Davis Webb, Patrick Mahomes, Mason Rudolph, Mitch Trubiskey, Chad Kelly, maybe Lamar Jackson(?) and someone will rise up the boards in the second half of the season, during combine season or next year.

So if DK is going to be the #1 QB on someone's board. Take the money and <strike>run</strike> throw.

 

[irishog77]

who is saying that Kizer might be going #1?
that's just crazy talk IMO.

BUT

if true, or even #2 overall....then he HAS to go.

Kizer won't be the overall #1 prospect on the board. He might, however, be the #1 QB on the board, which means he could very likely go #1 or #2. I think Kizer would benefit tremendously from coming back for 1 more year, but think he's a better pro prospect than Goff and Wentz.

The way NFL teams are desperate for QB's, I think flaws and all, Kizer is more than a decent bet to be drafted very high.

 

[IrishBroker]

???? Alex Smith is not a bust....And there is nothing 1 year in college would have done to change his NFL career dramatically.

You should be using Jamarcus Russell as an example of a #1 bust...

This and I repeat:

Nice? #1 draft pick. 125 career starts. 15 games over .500. A Pro-Bowl and $100M (?) in earnings?

More like:

He's a bust. I disagree with you both.

He's a #1 pick, and isn't even on the franchise that selected him to be "the guy" of the future.

He's had a nice career...underwhelming, but nice. Jake Plummer 2.0

 

[Irish Insanity]

He's a bust. I disagree with you both.

He's a #1 pick, and isn't even on the franchise that selected him to be "the guy" of the future.

He's had a nice career...underwhelming, but nice. Jake Plummer 2.0

Eli say hi!

 

[ACamp1900]

I don't know how you can have a productive, long and successful by just about any measure, 'nice' NFL career and be called a bust... gkI is dead on, JaMarcus Russell is a bust, not Alex Smith... even during that draft people were saying that any other year he wouldn't go #1 overall... I remember that clearly. You could say he didn't live up to the #1 pick, but surely that's different from 'bust'.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

I still can't wrap my mind around DK being seriously looked at as #1 overall..... not knocking, like DK, just sayin.

What is your reasoning for not thinking he could be? Just curious.

 

[kmoose]

I don't know how you can have a productive, long and successful by just about any measure, 'nice' NFL career and be called a bust... gkI is dead on, JaMarcus Russell is a bust, not Alex Smith... even during that draft people were saying that any other year he wouldn't go #1 overall... I remember that clearly. You could say he didn't live up to the #1 pick, but surely that's different from 'bust'.

Fair enough. The point was that he probably came out too soon. And not living up to being the #1 pick in the draft could support that idea.

 

[ACamp1900]

What is your reasoning for not thinking he could be? Just curious.

Devoting energy to that on this board? No thanks,... let's just say it's surprising.

Fair enough. The point was that he probably came out too soon. And not living up to being the #1 pick in the draft could support that idea.

Fair. You can also spin it that he came out the perfect year because he got top possible dollar and would have had an above average, nice, career elsewhere without that money had he come out later.

 

[Irish2155]

Alex Smith is largely considered a bust, as a #1 overall pick. If he had stayed in college another year, maybe he could have focused specifically on the skills he would need for the next level. I mean, he was obviously an outstanding college football player who was unprepared to make the leap to the NFL and perform at an appropriately high level.

Regardless if one considers him a NFL bust or not, he certainly would not have gone #1 overall if he'd stayed another year. His stock was the highest it will ever be...had to go.

 

[irishog77]

He's a bust. I disagree with you both.

He's a #1 pick, and isn't even on the franchise that selected him to be "the guy" of the future.

He's had a nice career...underwhelming, but nice. Jake Plummer 2.0

Eli say hi!

So do Jim Plunkett, Steve Young, Trent Dilfer, Doug Williams, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and I'm sure others that I can't think of off the top of my head.

 

[IrishLax]

He's a bust. I disagree with you both.

He's a #1 pick, and isn't even on the franchise that selected him to be "the guy" of the future.

He's had a nice career...underwhelming, but nice. Jake Plummer 2.0

I'm pretty sure they wish they still had him...

Pretty much every QB-desperate team, if you asked them, would take an "Alex Smith" for a top 10 pick. This is more or less validated by league contracts. Since joining Kansas City, he's ranked 23rd, 19th, and 13th in QBR... averages to the 18th rated QB over that span, basically the definition of average. The 18th biggest QB salary this year is $18 million. Tom Brady makes 20.5 million, Tony Romo/Matt Stafford/Sam Bradford all make $18 million. Alex Smith makes $17 million. So he's valued right at that "NFL average QB" by both the market and statistics.

 

[BobbyMac]

He's a bust. I disagree with you both.

He's a #1 pick, and isn't even on the franchise that selected him to be "the guy" of the future.

He's had a nice career...underwhelming, but nice. Jake Plummer 2.0

You better go look at the '05 Draft. Demarcus Ware & Aaron Rogers. HOF's. Antrel Rolle, Shawn Merriman and Derrick Johnson were the next tier multi-Pro Bowlers. Alex Smith is in the next tier with other Pro Bowlers.

Wait, are you saying he should have stayed an extra year at Utah and magically become a HOFer? What did he do wrong? He went #1 and got paid and had a nice career. Better than Ronnie Brown at #2, better than Braylon Edwards at #3, better than Cedric Benson at #4... or Cadillac Williams at #5... or Pac Man at #6... or Troy Williamson at #7... or Carlos Rogers at #9... or Mike Williams at #10. Other busts before Aaron Rogers at #24... Travis Johnson, David Pollock, Erasmus James, Alex Barron & Fabian Washington.

The only disappointment... and it's a big one, was not picking Rogers because he was right under their nose at Cal but there were 22 other dumbazzes that night right behind them.

 

[twig21]

I don't profess to be a great analyzer of QB talent but I was rewatching the Syracuse game. The throw he made on EQs second TD was spectacular. His release was NFL like and was a bullet. I don't see a lot of college QBs that can make that throw.

 

[dwshade]

Kizer will have 2 years under his belt after this. That pretty experienced for college.

And most of the previous QB's I mentioned earlier had 2 or more years experience and stayed in school. Any scout will tell you the more experience as a QB that you can get in college take it. Peyton Manning was a 4 year starter at Tennessee.

 

[dwshade]

Kizer absolutely has to go.

The longer you stick around, the longer the NFL has to pick your game apart. The same traits that are viewed as "upside" become weaknesses.

If Deshaun Watson had gone out after last years championship game, he would have been the consensus #1. Now people just look for faults in his game. Same thing happened to Brady Quinn... and more recently Cardale Jones.

Kizer is gone. I truly believe that last year's class changed ND football forever. When Jaylon got injured, it just solidified things in the minds of guys like Stanley, Fuller and Procise... and now based on the success of guys like Stanley and Fuller after having left early, ND football will now resemble USC alot more than Stanford. I also think Kelly knows this, which is why he doesn't think twice about burning redshirt years anymore.

Agreed on the other position players just not QB. Brady Quinn had faults in his game. Downfield accuracy was terrible for the NFL. And i disagree that Watson would have gone #1. Plenty of time to pick these guys apart after the season and before the draft. Happened to Teddy Bridgewater. After his final season he was pegged as the top pick. Went at the very end of 1st round. Same thing with Aaron Rodgers.

 

[kmoose]

Devoting energy to that on this board? No thanks,... let's just say it's surprising.



Fair. You can also spin it that he came out the perfect year because he got top possible dollar and would have had an above average, nice, career elsewhere without that money had he come out later.

Alex Smith was not very good, early on in his career. This might be true of a lot of guys, but I think it speaks to the idea that he could have learned/honed some of those skills in his senior year in college, and been ahead of the game in the NFL.

His QB rating, by year:

2005: 40.8
2006: 74.8
2007: 57.2
2008: DNP
2009: 81.5
2010: 82.1
2011: 90.7
2012: 104.1
2013: 89.1 (first season with Chiefs)
2014: 95.4
2015: 87.7

 

[BobbyMac]

Alex Smith was not very good, early on in his career. This might be true of a lot of guys, but I think it speaks to the idea that he could have learned/honed some of those skills in his senior year in college, and been ahead of the game in the NFL.

His QB rating, by year:

2005: 40.8
2006: 74.8
2007: 57.2
2008: DNP
2009: 81.5
2010: 82.1
2011: 90.7
2012: 104.1
2013: 89.1 (first season with Chiefs)
2014: 95.4
2015: 87.7

And he could have blown out an MCL, he could have regressed under new Utah coach Kyle Whittingham, he could have been hit by a meteor. He could have lost that money. $95M the man has made.

What are the odds running the spread for Kyle Whitingham would have improved Alex Smith's game? Was the 49ers staff that bad?

And if he would have stayed, he would have been behind Vince Young, Matt Leinart and maybe Jay Cutler in the draft. Along with Mario Williams who went #1, Reggie Bush #2 and probably D'Brickashaw Ferguson at #4..

 

[kmoose]

And he could have blown out an MCL, he could have regressed under new Utah coach Kyle Whittingham, he could have been hit by a meteor. He could have lost that money. $95M the man has made.

What are the odds running the spread for Kyle Whitingham would have improved Alex Smith's game? Was the 49ers staff that bad?

And if he would have stayed, he would have been behind Vince Young, Matt Leinart and maybe Jay Cutler in the draft. Along with Mario Williams who went #1, Reggie Bush #2 and probably D'Brickashaw Ferguson at #4..

That's all true. But my point was just that saying "If he's the #1 projected pick, he didn't come out too soon" is not an absolute. There have been other #1 overall QBs that could really have benefited from another year in college.

I was going to also mention Tim Couch, but:

1. He went to a dumpster fire organization that no one could have succeeded with.

and

2. I didn't want to trigger ACamp's PTSD.