2025 College Football Playoffs

[matman4593]

It's not worth worrying about any scenarios until the CFP polls drop. But agree with all who fear the ACC situation. I also can't imagine the B10 is going to be satisfied with 2-3 bids. But if there is one thing history has taught us, the SEC isn't done eating itself quite yet.

 

[LifelongFan]

I get "don't worry, it's out of our control" sentiments. But to say "10-2 Notre Dame is in for sure, don't worry" is just not true. Upsets happen, they probably will, but the way these teams' schedules are laid out means there needs to be very large upsets. With megaconferences, schedules are very wacky and teams can slide by without playing the other contenders. The models help us, everyone having easier schedules than what they had 5 or 10 years ago helps, but the autobids hurt. If November plays out like Saturday did, CFP poll release days will be anxious.

 

[stlnd01]

It's not worth worrying about any scenarios until the CFP polls drop. But agree with all who fear the ACC situation. I also can't imagine the B10 is going to be satisfied with 2-3 bids. But if there is one thing history has taught us, the SEC isn't done eating itself quite yet.

Big Ten probably gets three. (Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon assuming they win out). But unless Michigan runs the table there is no plausible fourth Big Ten team. At some point they have to pick teams that actually deserve to be there.

 

[NDWarrior]

I'm only just a little more worried this year because:

- ND has 2 losses (vs. 1 last year)
- There is a lot of traffic this year with many 1- and 2-loss teams, many of which have remaining manageable schedules
- There are enough undefeated and 1-loss SEC and ACC teams that there could be a lot of close 1- and 2-loss championship game losers and/or non-championship 1-loss teams that are making it so crowded
- Sure upsets and carnage are key - We'll see what happens this year in the season homestretch but there had seemed to be more tough games remaining for the top 10-15 teams which I'm just not seeing as much this year - Maybe with such large P4 conferences now, the traditional top teams just aren't playing one another year in and year out
- If there is this much traffic (assuming not enough carnage), then we have to count on the committee to fairly scrutinize SOS, game control, who the key losses and wins were against, and who has momentum going into the CFP.
- We have to allow for that one top G5 conf. champion to get a guaranteed top 12 spot which is more crowding in the top 12

I agree we'll have a strong resume and we'll rank high in these categories, plus our two losses were very first 2 games against 2 top teams (at least so far).

Just not sure we can 100% say that ND is guaranteed to get in with winning out if there is a lot of traffic of 1- and 2-loss teams (and a few undefeated ones).

Again, would love to see USC pummel Oregon in Beaverton and Pitt beat GT (both of which I know is asking a lot). This would give me comfort, assuming ND wins out.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I think we still need some help to get in at the moment. Could come down to us and a 2 loss Oregon team which they have zero ranked wins currently. Need a few upsets to happen and I’m sure they will.

I have yet to hear a single pundit, the ND beat or nationally, make the claim that a 10-2 ND has a single thing to worry about.

All say they are in.

 

[Wild Bill]

I have yet to hear a single pundit, the ND beat or nationally, make the claim that a 10-2 ND has a single thing to worry about.

All say they are in.

Pretty sure Cam Newton said a 5 loss SEC team should get in over them.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Pretty sure Cam Newton said a 5 loss SEC team should get in over them.

 

[jpachuta33]

Don’t forget…

Last year Ohio State finished the regular season 10-2, losing to a miserable Michigan team on the last week of the season. They didn’t make the BIG10 title game and still got to host a Playoff game.

As far as the ACC narrative, let’s not forget this is the same committee who left out an undefeated, ACC champion in Florida State years ago.

This committee is all about passing the eye test. If things continue the way they should, I think it’s pretty apparent that Notre Dame is easily one of the best ten teams right now.

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

I don’t think many are saying that a 10-2 ND is absolutely in. But it is very likely.

Current Vegas odds have us at near-identical odds to go 10-2 and to make the playoffs. The math works out where they are saying we have ~95% chance to make the playoffs if we go 10-2. These books have to be close to the truth, or they lose serious money.

If you truly believe there’s a good enough chance that ND gets left out at 10-2, just go hammer no playoffs at +260, as you’ve apparently identified a significant edge in the market.

 

[Dale]

Some Kelly Ford Projections to go 10 - 2:

- Ole Miss: 87% (47% at 11 - 1)

*Georgia*

- Vanderbilt: 29% (4% at 11 - 1)
- Tennessee: 21%
- Texas: 13%
- Missouri: 7%
- Oklahoma: 4%

Would put it at objectively unlikely for the SEC to get 5 teams in. Omitted Georgia due to the Ga Tech game. But they are in the Ole Miss ballpark for SEC play

EDIT: misread Texas

 

[SportsingHard]

View attachment 3060865

Funny and accurate, but Cam's not alone. About 95% of national CFB media (as opposed to team-specific reporters) are clowns by design.

 

[DillonHall]

I have yet to hear a single pundit, the ND beat or nationally, make the claim that a 10-2 ND has a single thing to worry about.

All say they are in.

I thought we were out on Heather Dinich/ESPN’s latest rankings

 

[Irish#1]

Last year Bama fans were screaming at the top of their lungs that they deserve to be in with 3 losses. If ND gets in with 2 losses Bama fans will be screaming at the top of their lungs that ND doesn't deserver to be in.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Technically, I guess, but this is based on today's rankings. My point was that most experts are saying if ND hypothetically wins out, they'd be in.

She has us ranked 12th, which is basically the "first spot out" given that Memphis, the currently projected highest ranked G6 conference champions, would leap up. Not all 11 teams ahead of us will remain there. So, I think this implies she would also have us in at 10-2.

Projecting the College Football Playoff top 12 after Week 9

We assess how the committee could stack the top teams in the country after Week 9.

www.espn.com

 

[NDRock]

Last year Bama fans were screaming at the top of their lungs that they deserve to be in with 2 losses. If ND gets in with 2 losses Bama fans will be screaming at the top of their lungs that ND doesn't deserver to be in.

I thought they had 3 losses

 

[notredomer23]

I thought they had 3 losses

They did. Losses to Tennessee, Vandy, and Oklahoma (24-3).

 

[Irish du Nord]

It's not worth worrying about any scenarios until the CFP polls drop. But agree with all who fear the ACC situation. I also can't imagine the B10 is going to be satisfied with 2-3 bids. But if there is one thing history has taught us, the SEC isn't done eating itself quite yet.

The Big 10 wants more than 2-3 bids? Then have more than 2-3 good teams

 

[DillonHall]

I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll get in if we finish 10-2 but there are definitely scenarios where we get left out. If Miami doesn't win the ACC, there will be two ACC teams slotted ahead of us. Plus a Group of 5 team that will jump us even if we're ranked higher in the polls. Hopefully Alabama takes care of business against OU to knock them out. But if Vandy beats Texas then loses to Tennessee, both of those teams might be ahead of us - I couldn't make an argument that their 10-2 resume is any worse than ours

 

[SportsingHard]

Last year Bama fans were screaming at the top of their lungs that they deserve to be in with 2 losses. If ND gets in with 2 losses Bama fans will be screaming at the top of their lungs that ND doesn't deserver to be in.

Alabama had three regular season losses last year--two to unranked teams (one by three touchdowns)--before losing to unranked Michigan in something called the Reliaquest Bowl.

 

[NDFAN2008]

Don’t forget…

Last year Ohio State finished the regular season 10-2, losing to a miserable Michigan team on the last week of the season. They didn’t make the BIG10 title game and still got to host a Playoff game.

As far as the ACC narrative, let’s not forget this is the same committee who left out an undefeated, ACC champion in Florida State years ago.

This committee is all about passing the eye test. If things continue the way they should, I think it’s pretty apparent that Notre Dame is easily one of the best ten teams right now.

But Ohio State also had 2 top 10 wins against Indiana and Oregon

 

[KPENN]

It’ll be interesting to see what they do with Miami if they lose another one.

 

[IrishTusker]

But Ohio State also had 2 top 10 wins against Indiana and Oregon

IU and PSU but the point stands.

 

[LifelongFan]

Miami making the ACC championship seems very unlikely, would need 2 losses by Virginia and 1 by Louisville, and that's just to avoid tiebreakers. SMU might need to lose another one too.

 

[irish4ever]

Big Ten probably gets three. (Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon assuming they win out). But unless Michigan runs the table there is no plausible fourth Big Ten team. At some point they have to pick teams that actually deserve to be there.

Hahahahaha, scUM sux! No way they win against O$U. Playing in the Pig House and the refs on their side, still it's gonna be a LOSS for them. Fuck meatchicken. They are out. BTW, how the fuck are those bastards ahead of U$C in the AP (fake news) poll? Same record both lost to ranked teams on the road and U$C canned their sorry candy asses?!?

 

[IrishTusker]

Hahahahaha, scUM sux! No way they win against O$U. Playing in the Pig House and the refs on their side, still it's gonna be a LOSS for them. Fuck meatchicken. They are out. BTW, how the fuck are those bastards ahead of U$C in the AP (fake news) poll? Same record both lost to ranked teams on the road and U$C canned their sorry candy asses?!?

OSU clearly has some mental issue with Michigan, good chance they lose to them again I think.

 

[stlnd01]

Hahahahaha, scUM sux! No way they win against O$U. Playing in the Pig House and the refs on their side, still it's gonna be a LOSS for them. Fuck meatchicken. They are out. BTW, how the fuck are those bastards ahead of U$C in the AP (fake news) poll? Same record both lost to ranked teams on the road and U$C canned their sorry candy asses?!?

I’m not saying Michigan is any good but they could win like 6-3, the way Ohio State has played them the last few times.

 

[Irish#1]

I thought they had 3 losses

You’re right it was 3. Guess I better change my post.

 

[irishu]

Some people use this thread and the rankings thread as their place to vent all of their blackpilling and spiral into every worse case scenario. All of their assumptions rest on every game the rest of the way going to chalk in the absolute worst manner for ND. Of course it's theoretically possible, but it's also highly, highly improbable and even then those assumptions about what is worse for ND rest upon their reading into the AP poll which has zero weight or meaning as to who makes the playoffs.

Optimism and happiness are choices and some people look at the same data and actively choose the opposite and well that's their choice. Not how I want to live though.

TLDR: bedwetters?

 

[ab2cmiller]

TLDR: bedwetters?

Finally a bedwetter post where it’s actually warranted. I’ve been waiting all day for you to drop the hammer.

 

[OhioIrish]

I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll get in if we finish 10-2 but there are definitely scenarios where we get left out. If Miami doesn't win the ACC, there will be two ACC teams slotted ahead of us. Plus a Group of 5 team that will jump us even if we're ranked higher in the polls. Hopefully Alabama takes care of business against OU to knock them out. But if Vandy beats Texas then loses to Tennessee, both of those teams might be ahead of us - I couldn't make an argument that their 10-2 resume is any worse than ours

To me it will boil down to 10-2 ND or a 5th SEC team — and I think the committee picks us based on the simple fact that we are patently better than every potential SEC squad. I really think it will be that simple. Good chance ACC gets only one team too — GT still has NC State, Pitt, and Georgia — that leaves another potential spot for ND.

SEC: 4 (Bama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas AM)
BIG: 3 (OSU, Indiana, Oregon)
ACC: 2 (Miami, Georgia Tech)
Big 12:1 (BYU)
P5: 1 (Whoever)
ND or 5th SEC (Tennessee/OU/Vandy)