2025 College Football Playoffs

[SportsingHard]

Wouldn’t a top 10, undefeated BYU have a chance if they lose a close CCG? SMU made it last year.

Probably, yes, though I wouldn't call them undefeated, and I'm not sure how they'd be ranked. SMU was a different situation. Worse record, better conference.

 

[NDRock]

That’s probably the only scenario where the Big 12 gets two teams, and it would require BYU to first beat both Texas Tech and Cincy on the road. Seems unlikely.

That and an undefeated GT losing their CCG would not be good. Low probability but there’s definitely scenarios where we get left out or we’re at least on the bubble.

 

[SeekNDestroy]

We will c

u next time!

 

[NDRock]

Probably, yes, though I wouldn't call them undefeated, and I'm not sure how they'd be ranked. SMU was a different situation. Worse record, better conference.

SMU was #8 going into their CCG. If BYU runs the table, they’ll be about the same.

 

[SportsingHard]

SMU was #8 going into their CCG. If BYU runs the table, they’ll be about the same.

Yeah, I agree. Perhaps a tad higher, for better or worse.

 

[Dale]

I think worrying about the Big 12 is akin to worrying about the American. I just don’t see a serious scenario where they get 2 bids.

 

[LifelongFan]

Wouldn’t a top 10, undefeated BYU have a chance if they lose a close CCG? SMU made it last year.

Texas Tech winning out in the regular season and then losing to BYU in the title game would be something to watch for, similar to how SMU got in but their Sagarin/SP+/whatever is very high and if we are getting grace they could as well, while also factoring in that last year the conference championship games knocked no one out.

 

[NotKoon]

The path to make it isn't as clear as some people are making it out to be, even if ND finished out at 10-2, they still need a fair amount of help.

Two of these scenarios need to play out:

SEC: Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Missouri lose one more game. Vandy loses two more, this ensures them as a 4 bid league.

Big 10: Iowa/USC/Michigan lose one more or If Iowa or USC wins out Oregon loses two more, this keeps them at a 3 bid league. ND should get in over 10-2 USC but don't want to leave that in the committees hands, especially with the stink the Big 10 has been trying to raise.

ACC: Miami either falls apart or wins the conference (they need alot of help to make the championship game) to insure it's a one bid league. There is an argument to be made for 10-2 ND over 10-2 Miami if the second loss is Pitt, but again don't want to leave it in the committees hands.

If two of those scenarios don't happen the odds of ND will get squeezed out, with the only caveats being them possibly getting in over 10-2 SC or 10-2 Miami. Otherwise with Autobids there's no room at the dance

 

[SportsingHard]

The path to make it isn't as clear as some people are making it out to be, even if ND finished out at 10-2, they still need a fair amount of help.

Two of these scenarios need to play out:

SEC: Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Missouri lose one more game. Vandy loses two more, this ensures them as a 4 bid league.

Big 10: Iowa/USC/Michigan lose one more or If Iowa or USC wins out Oregon loses two more, this keeps them at a 3 bid league. ND should get in over 10-2 USC but don't want to leave that in the committees hands, especially with the stink the Big 10 has been trying to raise.

ACC: Miami either falls apart or wins the conference (they need alot of help to make the championship game) to insure it's a one bid league. There is an argument to be made for 10-2 ND over 10-2 Miami if the second loss is Pitt, but again don't want to leave it in the committees hands.

If two of those scenarios don't happen the odds of ND will get squeezed out, with the only caveats being them possibly getting in over 10-2 SC or 10-2 Miami. Otherwise with Autobids there's no room at the dance

Even if the season ended today, ND would probably be in. If ND has an opportunity to win five more games, it's only going to solidy our position.

The only complicating factor is if underdogs win the CCGs, but that won't complicate things enough to keep ND out.

We're barely over halfway into the season, and most teams (especially contenders), are just entering the harder part of their schedules. Losses will happen.

 

[Dale]

This week:

Virginia (-4.5) @ Cal
Vanderbilt (-2.5) @ Texas
Georgia Tech (-6.5) @ NC State
Louisville (-12) @ Virginia Tech
Georgia (-7.5) @ Florida
Tennessee (-4) vs Oklahoma

Almost every result we would want is a home dog.

 

[FOTY977]

Don’t completely hate Cal, TX, and NCST’s chances. Not holding my breath on the others.

 

[NDRock]

Even if the season ended today, ND would probably be in. If ND has an opportunity to win five more games, it's only going to solidy our position.

The only complicating factor is if underdogs win the CCGs, but that won't complicate things enough to keep ND out.

We're barely over halfway into the season, and most teams (especially contenders), are just entering the harder part of their schedules. Losses will happen.

That’s what I’m thinking. We’d have to get very unlucky for all the scenarios to play out perfectly.

 

[NDRock]

I think worrying about the Big 12 is akin to worrying about the American. I just don’t see a serious scenario where they get 2 bids.

Not worried at all but the scenario is fairly straightforward. BYU is 12-0 and ranked in the top 8 and then lose to a team like Texas Tech in the CCG. Last year the playoff committee penalized the losers of CCGs like this:

Texas went from 2 to 3
Penn State went from 3 to 4
SMU went from 8 to 10

The committee does not want to penalize teams for losing in the CCGs.

 

[NDPhilly]

Us being top 5 in all these advanced rankings is maybe our best amo for the CFP. Need to keep murdering teams like IU.

 

[irish4ever]

CBS Sports projects ND in at 10, travelling to BYU for R1.

Nah, if the Irish win out at 10-2 (in impressive fashion), they'll be playing a home game (7 or 8). 1st, BYU has a loss or 2 coming. No team behind the Irish in the upcoming AP polls should pass them going forward (not saying that the AP poll will match the 1st CFP poll but use it as a basis). BYU has road trips to Texas Tech and Cincy and loses one if not both. Loser of the UGA and G.T. game drops behind the Irish. Vandy w/ games @ Texas and @ Tennessee will drop also. AND Ole Miss. loses @ Miss. State to drop behind. And don't be totally surprised of another "gift" comes the Irish way as there is always some game that is a total shocker within the few weeks of the CFB season (IU loses @ unranked P$U?, Oregon loses @ Iowa?, Bama loses @ Auburn? .... something unexpected will happen).

 

[LifelongFan]

I think Virginia is begging to get upset but with the remaining schedules this is very possible. I think GT would be out but Louisville would be complicating.

 

[NDWarrior]

I know the power of ND brand, but there are also a lot of ND haters out there. I think we need help including upsets. There are likely to be 5 SEC teams since there are likely to be a few 1 loss teams left out of SEC championship game who would get in ahead of us. We need it to be that only 1 ACC team and/or only 2 Big 10 teams get in as of rn, we’re potentially looking at 5 SEC teams, up to 3 Big 10 teams, up to 2 ACC teams, likely only 1 Big 12 team, and the one highest Group of 5 conference champion.

If the committee goes with maximum conference numbers here, assuming no upsets here on in and ND is out. Not saying will happen for sure, but it could.

We need a few key losses (and of course, to win out) to assure we secure the #12 playoff spot.

We need USC to crush Oregon in Beaverton in a few weeks; and we need Pitt to knock off GT and then Miami to knock off GT in the ACC championship. Also we need UVA to lose one more. And it will probably be good for BYU to win out and keep TTU and Cincinnati out!

(There are a number of top 15-20 teams that have very manageable schedules here on out where they will be favored to win out.)

If this plays out, it will be: 5 SEC teams, 2 or 3 Big 10 teams, 1 or 2 ACC team, 1 Big 12 team, 1 top Group of 5 conference champion, and hopefully ND. If these conference number of teams max out, ND is very well likely to be out.

 

[stlnd01]

I know the power of ND brand, but there are also a lot of ND haters out there. I think we need help including upsets. There are likely to be 5 SEC teams since there are likely to be a few 1 loss teams left out of SEC championship game who would get in ahead of us. We need it to be that only 1 ACC team and/or only 2 Big 10 teams get in as of rn, we’re potentially looking at 5 SEC teams, up to 3 Big 10 teams, up to 2 ACC teams, likely only 1 Big 12 team, and the one highest Group of 5 conference champion.

If the committee goes with maximum conference numbers here, assuming no upsets here on in and ND is out. Not saying will happen for sure, but it could.

We need a few key losses (and of course, to win out) to assure we secure the #12 playoff spot.

We need USC to crush Oregon in Beaverton in a few weeks; and we need Pitt to knock off GT and then Miami to knock off GT in the ACC championship. Also we need UVA to lose one more. And it will probably be good for BYU to win out and keep TTU and Cincinnati out!

(There are a number of top 15-20 teams that have very manageable schedules here on out where they will be favored to win out.)

If this plays out, it will be: 5 SEC teams, 2 or 3 Big 10 teams, 1 or 2 ACC team, 1 Big 12 team, 1 top Group of 5 conference champion, and hopefully ND. If these conference number of teams max out, ND is very well likely to be out.

Assuming, since you post on this board, that you are familiar with college football? There will be upsets.

I agree it's not as smooth a path for us to the playoff as I'd like. Biggest worries are five SEC teams, and a second ACC team. Primarily SEC teams and Miami finishing 10-2 are problematic. I kinda doubt an 11-1 Big 12 or an ACC team that isn't Miami gets an at-large spot ahead of us, it's not like those teams have any actually impressive wins. USC beating Oregon would be phenomenal, but it seems hard to count on USC on the road under Lincoln Riley.

Margins will matter too. If Ga. Tech finishes 11-1 but gets blown out by Georgia, for instance, there will be less enthusiasm for giving them an at-large than if they play Georgia close (assuming they then also lose the ACC title game).

Mostly we need to keep taking care of business and figure there will be car crashes ahead of us.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Karma would see ND hosting Miami in the 8/9 matchup.

 

[Huntr]

I know the power of ND brand, but there are also a lot of ND haters out there. I think we need help including upsets.

That's not how the committee works. Never has been.

 

[DillonHall]

I don't think a Playoff spot is nearly as inevitable as some people think. I was a lot more confident a week ago. The ACC is a mess and the Miami loss was unfortunate. We're in trouble if Miami doesn't make it to the ACC championship game. If we don't get some upsets in the SEC, we'll be competing for the last couple spots against some 10-2 SEC teams who'll have a better resume. We really need Texas to beat Vandy this week

 

[DillonHall]

Nah, if the Irish win out at 10-2 (in impressive fashion), they'll be playing a home game (7 or 8). 1st, BYU has a loss or 2 coming. No team behind the Irish in the upcoming AP polls should pass them going forward (not saying that the AP poll will match the 1st CFP poll but use it as a basis). BYU has road trips to Texas Tech and Cincy and loses one if not both. Loser of the UGA and G.T. game drops behind the Irish. Vandy w/ games @ Texas and @ Tennessee will drop also. AND Ole Miss. loses @ Miss. State to drop behind. And don't be totally surprised of another "gift" comes the Irish way as there is always some game that is a total shocker within the few weeks of the CFB season (IU loses @ unranked P$U?, Oregon loses @ Iowa?, Bama loses @ Auburn? .... something unexpected will happen).

If Texas Tech beats BYU, they'd probably jump ND. And I doubt the UGA/GT loser would fall behind ND, especially if it's a close GT loss. And there's no way Ole Miss is losing to MSU

And don't forget there's a group of 5 team that'll make the Playoff no matter where they're ranked (currently there's no such team ranked ahead of ND)

 

[tko]

UVA is hanging by a thread. I can't see them surviving much longer.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

I don't think a Playoff spot is nearly as inevitable as some people think. I was a lot more confident a week ago. The ACC is a mess and the Miami loss was unfortunate. We're in trouble if Miami doesn't make it to the ACC championship game. If we don't get some upsets in the SEC, we'll be competing for the last couple spots against some 10-2 SEC teams who'll have a better resume. We really need Texas to beat Vandy this week

The odds of ND going 10-2 and the odds of them making the playoffs are nearly identical. So you are in the minority here.

 

[notredomer23]

All these conferences sort themselves out over the next 3 weeks. Too many head-to-heads in the Big 12 and SEC amongst the top teams. Doesn't matter what A&M and Miami do. All that matter is ND wins out and they will get an 8 or 9 seed. Take it to the bank.

 

[Katzenboyer]

This week:

Virginia (-4.5) @ Cal
Vanderbilt (-2.5) @ Texas
Georgia Tech (-6.5) @ NC State
Louisville (-12) @ Virginia Tech
Georgia (-7.5) @ Florida
Tennessee (-4) vs Oklahoma

Almost every result we would want is a home dog.

Since it's college football, at least one of these teams will go down. My guess would be UVA and Vandy.

Also, the Tenn/OU game is a wash. I think it's better if Tenn loses, but voters could move up OU significantly if the Sooners win.

 

[irishjim]

I don't think a Playoff spot is nearly as inevitable as some people think. I was a lot more confident a week ago. The ACC is a mess and the Miami loss was unfortunate. We're in trouble if Miami doesn't make it to the ACC championship game. If we don't get some upsets in the SEC, we'll be competing for the last couple spots against some 10-2 SEC teams who'll have a better resume. We really need Texas to beat Vandy this week

Also Texas would have to lose again, preferably to AM. If they beat Vandy and Georgia, they will jump us going to AM

 

[Bane]

The odds of ND going 10-2 and the odds of them making the playoffs are nearly identical. So you are in the minority here.

Some people use this thread and the rankings thread as their place to vent all of their blackpilling and spiral into every worse case scenario. All of their assumptions rest on every game the rest of the way going to chalk in the absolute worst manner for ND. Of course it's theoretically possible, but it's also highly, highly improbable and even then those assumptions about what is worse for ND rest upon their reading into the AP poll which has zero weight or meaning as to who makes the playoffs.

Optimism and happiness are choices and some people look at the same data and actively choose the opposite and well that's their choice. Not how I want to live though.

 

[Plankton]

All that Notre Dame can control is to win out. That's it. There is no margin of error here. I think if they handle business, everything else will sort itself out, and they will be back in the playoff. Likely won't have an easy road when they get in, but they didn't last year either.

 

[SportsingHard]

Some people use this thread and the rankings thread as their place to vent all of their blackpilling and spiral into every worse case scenario. All of their assumptions rest of the every game the rest of the way going to chalk in the absolute worst manner for ND. Of course it's theoretically possible, but it's also highly, highly improbable and even then those assumptions about what is worse for ND rest upon their reading into the AP poll which has zero weight or meaning as to who makes the playoffs.

Optimism and happiness are choices and some people look at the same data and actively choose the opposite and well that's their choice. Not how I want to live though.

I've read that first sentence multiple times. Absolutely no idea what you were trying to say. I find the idea of you as a happy and optimistic person hilarious, though.