2024 College Football Playoffs

[OhioIrish]

So ND is locked into a 1st round home playoff game but seeding is still very much up in the air. They could get anywhere between 5-7 seed still. If both Oregon and Texas win the conf Champs, ND will be the 5. If one of them loses, I think ND will be the 6. If both of them lose, ND could drop to the 7.

Yes, I think this is exactly right.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I’m not overly concerned about any other playoff team this year with consideration of us being healthy and as full strength as possible. I think our defense is good enough to get stops and and our offense is able to generate points.

This is where I'm at, with one major exception: FG kicking unit is abysmal and in a tight game, I think ND loses because of it.

ND has been winning by large enough margins that it hasn't mattered. OSU missed two FGs in a tight game against UM and it cost them. I worry about that with ND.

 

[GowerND11]

I think you're right. In fact, we'd already be ahead of PSU in the AP poll if it wasn't for some joker who has us 10th. He is a sportswriter from NJ who presumably is not on the committee.

And Rece Davis with us 6th. Just a couple batshit insane rankings.

Here is how the AP votes were cast: Football Grid View :: College Poll Tracker :: Breaking down college polls every week of the season.

we also have a joke of a voter from D.C. too who I think covers Maryland.

 

[Huntr]

I think you're right. In fact, we'd already be ahead of PSU in the AP poll if it wasn't for some joker who has us 10th. He is a sportswriter from NJ who presumably is not on the committee.

Brian Fonseca, Rutgers beat writer. He's held the NIU loss against them the whole year. Fuck him, tho, it doesn't matter. AP poll is pointless.

The only poll that matters is the final post-season CFP one next Tuesday.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I mean did reggie bush sneak in and fiddle with this to get a 6-6 USC @18

Advanced stats suggest USC should be 9-3 not 6-6. They got "unlucky" (re: bad coaching from Lincoln Riley) in many games that they "should have" won. I don't make the rules, but computers are looking at opponent adjusted drive-by-drive or -play-by-play metrics.

I was going to say the same thing, not to rush to our arch-rival's aid, but they seem to be a pretty darn good football team to just caught some bad breaks. If ND had a 6-6 season with all of our losses combined to be ~30 points, I think our brains would all collectively break.

They played us very, very tough on Saturday, were the first team in 2 months to make our defense look "human" and it took two very late defensive scores to seal this game. Especially after Saturday, I'm not shocked by USC's top 20 FPI ranking. They looked the part.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Heather Dinich is an SEC mouthpiece. She's wrong about us, but the egregious part is her constantly saying IU should be ranked behind 3 loss SEC teams.

There are plenty outside of ESPN that agree IU deserved no part of their top 5 ranking. Their SOS was abysmal, played a (now even more proven) fraudulent OSU team and got boat raced, their only true test of the season.

They are a fine football team, and I'm no SEC apologizer, but I personally have no problem with the notion of Bama or SC being ranked ahead of IU with that pathetic SOS they have on their resume.

 

[NDPhilly]

Maiava was also playing the game of his life up until the 2 pick-sixes. PFF gave him six big time throws which was the most for a SC QB since Darnold in 2017. More than any Caleb game.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

There are plenty outside of ESPN that agree IU deserved no part of their top 5 ranking. Their SOS was abysmal, played a (now even more proven) fraudulent OSU team and got boat raced, their only true test of the season.

They are a fine football team, and I'm no SEC apologizer, but I personally have no problem with the notion of Bama or SC being ranked ahead of IU with that pathetic SOS they have on their resume.

Bama lost by 21 points to a .500 Oklahoma team. It's one thing to get boatraced by the most talented team in the country, its unacceptable to get your 3rd loss the way Bama did.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Bama lost by 21 points to a .500 Oklahoma team. It's one thing to get boatraced by the most talented team in the country, its unacceptable to get your 3rd loss the way Bama did.

That's fair. I think the debate can be had, and this is in no way something the committee would ever do but since we are on a message board, how many games does IU win in the SEC? How many games do they win if they had Oregon, Penn State, and/or USC on their schedule this year? They got lucky as all get out with their conference slate, and then watered it down further with a joke of a non-conference slate.

If ND went 10-2 and IU was ranked ahead of us, I think a lot of people's tunes would be much different about IU around here.

I'm from Michigan, I get a lot of fans are obviously from IN and might have ties to that university and some bias is leaking through, but take a step back analyze IU.....not a great resume. It's actually pathetic. It's much worse than ND's, and again, not really our fault when Miami (FL) ran away from us, FSU completely shit the bed, and USC might have posted the unluckiest record in college football, so we won't earn any credit for them, either.

 

[NorthDakota]

Bama lost by 21 points to a .500 Oklahoma team. It's one thing to get boatraced by the most talented team in the country, its unacceptable to get your 3rd loss the way Bama did.

Idk if the committee does or even should consider recency or context in losses, but I think it's at least worth discussing.

Ohio State losing at home to a mediocre Michigan team in the last game of the year is a really bad loss.

Alabama getting clapped by a bad OU team late in the year is a really bad look.

 

[Blazers46]

Maiava was also playing the game of his life up until the 2 pick-sixes. PFF gave him six big time throws which was the most for a SC QB since Darnold in 2017. More than any Caleb game.

There were some throws that were very solid but just not caught. Would have been hard catches but I remember thinking wow, that was close.

 

[Kingbish01]

It would be a damn shame if Bama got in at 9-3 Like you said, clapped by a bad OU team....and let Vandy hang 40 on ya. SMH

 

[SWirishfan]

Here is how the AP votes were cast: Football Grid View :: College Poll Tracker :: Breaking down college polls every week of the season.

we also have a joke of a voter from D.C. too who I think covers Maryland.

Mostly 3's & 4's and two East Cost fart breathers
Sounds about right.

 

[Kingbish01]

There were some throws that were very solid but just not caught. Would have been hard catches but I remember thinking wow, that was close.

My little nephew watched the game with me and he said "How are those guys playing football on TV when they can't catch"

 

[SWirishfan]

My little nephew watched the game with me and he said "How are those guys playing football on TV when they can't catch"

And my 5 year old made a comment about how the speed of the USC receivers shows how income inequality can ruin a nation.

Wisdom from the mouths of babes is the worst trope.

 

[GowerND11]

One thing that always made CFB exciting and fun was that teams just played in a bunch of different conferences, or in ND’s case traveled the country playing whoever. That made it different, thrilling, and created awesome bowl matchups.

With the old set up of conferences, was that you didn’t get the watered down schedules that CAN occur now with massive conferences. It also made winning your conference (even before CCGs) necessary to play in a top tier bowl game, and a chance at the NC. There were sometimes some ranking biases and sometimes teams were left out of consideration. However, the system we had worked to make the sport unique.

Now, with this 12 team bullshit, we have people arguing whether a 3 loss team deserves a shot at a Natty. I mean… think about that for a minute. Imagine going back in time to any season prior to this year that 3 loss teams that DID NOT make the CCG are making their case that they fucking deserve a chance to win a natty. Ludicrous.

 

[GATTACA!]

I know everyone has their preferred metric but Jeff Sagarin's model has Notre Dame as the #1 team in the country. I don't know that I've ever seen that.

SAGARIN RATINGS

STOP THE COUNT!

 

[NDPhilly]

 

[Blazers46]

It’s an exciting time. If not for injuries I’d be very confident and setting myself up for a much bigger heartbreak.

 

[NorthDakota]

One thing that always made CFB exciting and fun was that teams just played in a bunch of different conferences, or in ND’s case traveled the country playing whoever. That made it different, thrilling, and created awesome bowl matchups.

With the old set up of conferences, was that you didn’t get the watered down schedules that CAN occur now with massive conferences. It also made winning your conference (even before CCGs) necessary to play in a top tier bowl game, and a chance at the NC. There were sometimes some ranking biases and sometimes teams were left out of consideration. However, the system we had worked to make the sport unique.

Now, with this 12 team bullshit, we have people arguing whether a 3 loss team deserves a shot at a Natty. I mean… think about that for a minute. Imagine going back in time to any season prior to this year that 3 loss teams that DID NOT make the CCG are making their case that they fucking deserve a chance to win a natty. Ludicrous.

This happened in FCS over the last 15 years. They went from 16 to 24 teams. Got normal for 7-4 teams to get at-large. One year even a 6-5 team got one. Sorry but if you lose that often you don't deserve to be in.

 

[irishfan]

This is the week ND jumps Penn St. I think the move is justified plus it protects the committee in the event of a Penn St loss in the Big 10 champ. The committee won't have to justify PSU dropping behind ND after a loss, because ND is already ranked ahead.

Additionally, the margin between ND and PSU is small, whereas the margin between ND/Penn St and Georgia/Tenn is larger. Penn St can comfortably stay ahead of those teams with an L to Oregon.

I’m wondering if they still keep PSU ahead this week so they have flexibility with seeding next week to avoid rematches or conferences playing each other early in the bracket. I would imagine the committee will do everything they can to not have some combo of PSU/OSU/IU playing in the first round. Same thing with not having the SEC champ loser be in the 7/10 game and potentially playing the SEC champ in the Quarterfinals.

 

[NDRock]

One thing that always made CFB exciting and fun was that teams just played in a bunch of different conferences, or in ND’s case traveled the country playing whoever. That made it different, thrilling, and created awesome bowl matchups.

With the old set up of conferences, was that you didn’t get the watered down schedules that CAN occur now with massive conferences. It also made winning your conference (even before CCGs) necessary to play in a top tier bowl game, and a chance at the NC. There were sometimes some ranking biases and sometimes teams were left out of consideration. However, the system we had worked to make the sport unique.

Now, with this 12 team bullshit, we have people arguing whether a 3 loss team deserves a shot at a Natty. I mean… think about that for a minute. Imagine going back in time to any season prior to this year that 3 loss teams that DID NOT make the CCG are making their case that they fucking deserve a chance to win a natty. Ludicrous.

True but young people today are shocked that you won a national championship by getting voted one and not by winning in a championship game. I mean, Alabama calls themselves champions from the 1973 season after losing to ND in a bowl game. That's way more insane than anything going on today. That type of thing happened quite often in the past.

I had a conversation with some big college fans who are 20something. They had no idea that games would end in a tie (even bowl games). To them that sounded insane.

 

[RDU Irish]

Do we have any idea how the bowls will line up for the second round of the playoffs? Hoping Peach and Orange are on ND side of bracket. Also prepared to be annoyed at SEC favorable placement allowing their teams to travel the most minimal distance.

 

[NDRock]

Do we have any idea how the bowls will line up for the second round of the playoffs? Hoping Peach and Orange are on ND side of bracket. Also prepared to be annoyed at SEC favorable placement allowing their teams to travel the most minimal distance.

Heard Brady Quinn talking about the idea of having the traditional bowl game locations be used as opening games to the season. Get marquee matchups early, make the old bowl people happy, and make on site playoff games the norm until the championship game. I would love it, personally.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

I’m wondering if they still keep PSU ahead this week so they have flexibility with seeding next week to avoid rematches or conferences playing each other early in the bracket. I would imagine the committee will do everything they can to not have some combo of PSU/OSU/IU playing in the first round. Same thing with not having the SEC champ loser be in the 7/10 game and potentially playing the SEC champ in the Quarterfinals.

Great point, I didn't think about it from that perspective.

 

[MacIrish75]

Fellas, is this thread hidden from my guy @bobbyok1? It’s only been at the top of the front page every day for a month…

 

[bobbyok1]

Fellas, is this thread hidden from my guy @bobbyok1? It’s only been at the top of the front page every day for a month…

Yeah, it's not on my front-page feed at all.

Anyway, of all people, Matt SCum Linehart actually gave a solid forecast for ND with this take. Let's hope for a slugfest and not a shoot-out.

 

[RDU Irish]

Heard Brady Quinn talking about the idea of having the traditional bowl game locations be used as opening games to the season. Get marquee matchups early, make the old bowl people happy, and make on site playoff games the norm until the championship game. I would love it, personally.

They already do that. SEC teams love "neutral site" at Peach Bowl some other short commute to avoid home and home that might drag them north of the Mason-Dixon line. I have "season" Orange and Peach tickets on off change ND makes it there some day. I get offers all the time for other events including basketball games that are typically early season meh events priced like its something special. Run by sham charities they are just tax exempt marketing schemes.

They get the best of the playoffs, rounds 2, 3 and 4 rotated to the big dogs. CFP resales were 2-3x face value in the past which only hit every three years, non-playoff resales almost always sold under face value and got worse as more and more players deferred bowl participation. Championship is a different system so never got those even when they hosted. You saw fatigue in the UGA, Bama, Clemson types when they were not in playoffs - but when they were in, they were all in. Having seen the pricing differential in non-playoff versus playoff bowls - this going to be nuts. If SMU wins - look for their first round to be the highest priced ticket. That is one hungry AF fan base with $$ to burn. If they end up in the Cotton Bowl somehow, forget about it.

 

[GowerND11]

They already do that. SEC teams love "neutral site" at Peach Bowl some other short commute to avoid home and home that might drag them north of the Mason-Dixon line. I have "season" Orange and Peach tickets on off change ND makes it there some day. I get offers all the time for other events including basketball games that are typically early season meh events priced like its something special. Run by sham charities they are just tax exempt marketing schemes.

They get the best of the playoffs, rounds 2, 3 and 4 rotated to the big dogs. CFP resales were 2-3x face value in the past which only hit every three years, non-playoff resales almost always sold under face value and got worse as more and more players deferred bowl participation. Championship is a different system so never got those even when they hosted. You saw fatigue in the UGA, Bama, Clemson types when they were not in playoffs - but when they were in, they were all in. Having seen the pricing differential in non-playoff versus playoff bowls - this going to be nuts. If SMU wins - look for their first round to be the highest priced ticket. That is one hungry AF fan base with $$ to burn. If they end up in the Cotton Bowl somehow, forget about it.

Yeah I agree with what you say about the neutral site games. That’s another issue I have today in CFB. Marquee early season out of conference games are great. Playing them in Dallas, Atlanta, and New Orleans isn’t.

College football is meant to be played on campus.

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

So ND is locked into a 1st round home playoff game but seeding is still very much up in the air. They could get anywhere between 5-7 seed still. If both Oregon and Texas win the conf Champs, ND will be the 5. If one of them loses, I think ND will be the 6. If both of them lose, ND could drop to the 7.

This is right. And it’s massively up in the air which teams win those games.

DraftKings currently has Texas -2.5 against Georgia and Oregon -4 against PSU (this second line feels crazy low to me. Vegas either thinks PSU is better than people think, or Oregon isn’t as good as people think). I don’t think both favorites get upset, but very real chance at least one does.

Personally, I am expecting the 6-seed and would be pleasantly surprised if the dominos fall so that we are #5.