2024 College Football Playoffs

[ND87]

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

ACC and Big12 conferences this year are just proving the theory that auto-bids are a joke. SMU and BYU 4 and 3, respectively, is laughable.

 

[GATTACA!]

PSU with a cakewalk to the final 4.

 

[NDPhilly]

Yeah this system isnt going to last long if two teams that probably dont belong in the top 10 get byes. SEC + Big Ten will make sure of it.

 

[NDpendent]

This would be a rough route for ND

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Yeah this system isnt going to last long if two teams that probably dont belong in the top 10 get byes. SEC + Big Ten will make sure of it.

Plus, it helps legitimize the ACC and Big12, which they can't be happy about.

 

[BoredIrish]

Yeah this system isnt going to last long if two teams that probably dont belong in the top 10 get byes. SEC + Big Ten will make sure of it.

The other thing I dont like about this setup is that I suspect #5 and #6 will be de facto reserved for the losers of the SEC and BIG championship games (unless ND goes undefeated). So the best spot for ND would be #7 or #8, which would match them up with the SEC or BIG champion in Round 2.

 

[Wild Bill]

In a post that absolutely no one asked for, I thought I'd put together my completely biased thoughts on ND's chances against this year's playoff contending teams. (Note: This assumes both teams play "well" and nothing crazy happens.) As I've mentioned before, there really isn't anyone that I think would boat race ND off the field. I know the chances of playing some of these teams, based on seedings, is remote, but thought I'd include them all anyway.

1. Oregon - 40% Chance to Win - This game would likely only happen in the semi or final on a neutral site. Admittedly I haven't watched them much this year but they seem to be a pretty complete team.
2. Ohio State - 55% Chance to Win - OSU doesn't scare me, especially their offense. Their defense is good but on a neutral site, I like our chances.
3. Texas - 40% Chance to Win - I think overall, they are a pretty complete team, but nothing stands out as something they do incredibly well, except maybe defense. They will be battle tested. Could be a rock fight similar to Texas A&M.
4. Penn State - 85% Chance to Win - Give me this matchup all day and twice on Saturday. I think we'd win this by double digits.
5. Indiana - 70% Chance to Win - I like our chances here. A big factor would be where this game would get played. I just can't believe they are talented enough, top to bottom, to keep up.
6. Tennessee - 55% Chance to Win. Defense seems legit, offense, not so much. I like Golden against a young QB.
7. BYU - 85% Chance to Win - Sign me up. I don't see them consistently scoring or stopping us.
8. Bama - 30% Chance to Win - This is the matchup that would scare me the most. If Milroe is dealing, I don't see us having a chance.
9. Ole Miss - 40% Chance to Win - Came into the season with a lot of hype, just destroyed Georgia. I'm not sure we match up well here.
10. Georgia - 35% Chance to Win - I think their DL would give our OL fits all game and we'd struggle to do anything on offense. But I think it may be the same on the other side. Could be a 10-9 type game.
11. Miami - 70% Chance to Win - After skating by, they finally got exposed by a team we handled. I'd take this game without much concern.
12. Boise State - 65% Chance to Win - This could be an interesting matchup. Jeanty is the goods and I'm not sure how ND would do against a team that was committed to ramming it down your throat.
13. SMU - 65% Chance to Win - I don't know much about SMU, admittedly, and I'm not sure it matters. The stage may be too big at this point for SMU but who knows.

There you have it. Yes, I'm bored.

The percentages above change quite a bit based on where the game is played.

Unless the committee wants to rethink their position on Penn State, I don't see ND getting higher than 8. I know there is a ton of football left but this scenario seems likely:

5 seed - Big 10 CG loser
6 seed SEC CG loser
7 Penn State
8-11 - ND, several two loss SEC teams and maybe a one loss IU or two loss OSU.
12 Boise

If Penn State and ND run the table, the loser of the ACC and Big 12 title games are not getting an at large bid, even if it's a one loss BYU team.

I would be surprised if ND isn't matched up with a SEC team in the first round, and tonight’s rankings will likely reveal if that game will be at home or away, depending on how Notre Dame is ranked relative to Alabama and Ole Miss.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

The percentages above change quite a bit based on where the game is played.

Unless the committee wants to rethink their position on Penn State, I don't see ND getting higher than 8. I know there is a ton of football left but this scenario seems likely:

5 seed - Big 10 CG loser
6 seed SEC CG loser
7 Penn State
8-11 - ND, several two loss SEC teams and maybe a one loss IU or two loss OSU.
12 Boise

If Penn State and ND run the table, the loser of the ACC and Big 12 title games are not getting an at large bid, even if it's a one loss BYU team.

I would be surprised if ND isn't matched up with a SEC team in the first round, and tonight’s rankings will likely reveal if that game will be at home or away, depending on how Notre Dame is ranked relative to Alabama and Ole Miss.

While I largely agree, I wouldn't necessarily believe a 3 loss SEC champ loser will be slotted above ND. I think ND can climb to the 6 spot.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

I will also add - odds are there are a couple more upsets left within the top 8-10 teams.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

While I largely agree, I wouldn't necessarily believe a 3 loss SEC champ will be slotted above ND. I think ND can climb to the 6 spot.

Getting the 5-6 vs. the 7-8 would be huge. Maybe even to the point where the 11-12 is a better outcome than 7-8.

 

[SDIrishFan]

The percentages above change quite a bit based on where the game is played.

Unless the committee wants to rethink their position on Penn State, I don't see ND getting higher than 8. I know there is a ton of football left but this scenario seems likely:

5 seed - Big 10 CG loser
6 seed SEC CG loser
7 Penn State
8-11 - ND, several two loss SEC teams and maybe a one loss IU or two loss OSU.
12 Boise

If Penn State and ND run the table, the loser of the ACC and Big 12 title games are not getting an at large bid, even if it's a one loss BYU team.

I would be surprised if ND isn't matched up with a SEC team in the first round, and tonight’s rankings will likely reveal if that game will be at home or away, depending on how Notre Dame is ranked relative to Alabama and Ole Miss.

Absolutely, which I think is why it's critical for ND to host the first round. Obviously rounds 2, 3 and the finals are neutral site.

Also, on PSU, I think there's starting to be rumblings of why the F is PSU rated so high? Who have they beat? That sentiment is even starting to extend to Texas (but Texas will have their opportunities coming up). I've gotta believe teams are going to start to get punished for lack of a quality schedule. I don't have a problem with PSU at 8 or 9, I have a huge problem with them at 3 or 4.

 

[Wild Bill]

While I largely agree, I wouldn't necessarily believe a 3 loss SEC champ loser will be slotted above ND. I think ND can climb to the 6 spot.

Could be right, but given the hard-on everyone has about ND not being in a conference, I think the committee will be inclined to give a nod to a 3 loss SECCG loser provided they were ranked above ND going into the game.

 

[Wild Bill]

Absolutely, which I think is why it's critical for ND to host the first round. Obviously rounds 2, 3 and the finals are neutral site.

Also, on PSU, I think there's starting to be rumblings of why the F is PSU rated so high? Who have they beat? That sentiment is even starting to extend to Texas (but Texas will have their opportunities coming up). I've gotta believe teams are going to start to get punished for lack of a quality schedule. I don't have a problem with PSU at 8 or 9, I have a huge problem with them at 3 or 4.

Minnesota can do us a favor beat them in a couple weeks. They have a bye this week and they're at home, so hopefully Fleck has them ready to ruin Penn State's season

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Minnesota can do us a favor beat them in a couple weeks. They have a bye this week and they're at home, so hopefully Fleck has them ready to ruin Penn State's season

I would've liked their odds until I saw Rutgers absolutely dismantle them. What a letdown performance for Fleck.

 

[NDWarrior]

Could there be a Hoosier State Showdown? Hoosier State — with Indiana and Notre Dame — could be the unlikely center of the college football universe

 

[Wild Bill]

I would've liked their odds until I saw Rutgers absolutely dismantle them. What a letdown performance for Fleck.

It’s for the best that they lost the game. If Minnesota had won, they’d likely be ranked at 7-3 with five straight wins, which would have strengthened Penn State’s resume. Now, it's all risk and no reward for the fightin franlins. At best, Minnesota comes in less complacent after the loss - at worst, they’re essentially the same team, regardless of what happened @ Rutgers.

 

[NDWarrior]

Dinich: I would hesitate to eliminate a 3-loss SEC team from CFP (She did qualify that if it were Ole Miss or LSU with 3 losses, she would eliminate them, but not GA or AL).

 

[Katzenboyer]

Getting the 5-6 vs. the 7-8 would be huge. Maybe even to the point where the 11-12 is a better outcome than 7-8.

I think I agree. I'd rather go on the road and take our chances against the 5 seed. Georgia + Oregon (or some combination like that) would be brutal.

 

[Katzenboyer]

Dinich: I would hesitate to eliminate a 3-loss SEC team from CFP (She did qualify that if it were Ole Miss or LSU with 3 losses, she would eliminate them, but not GA or AL).

I know that this will all probably work itself out, but the fact ESPN is already setting this up pisses me off.

 

[stlnd01]

Yeah this system isnt going to last long if two teams that probably dont belong in the top 10 get byes. SEC + Big Ten will make sure of it.

Yep. Most people wouldn't pick BYU or SMU or Miami to beat any of the teams seeded 5 through 9 or 10. It really warps the seeding to give those conferences first-round byes.

 

[Rockin’Irish]

I know that this will all probably work itself out, but the fact ESPN is already setting this up pisses me off.

Alabama and UGA are getting a bit too much credit based on reputation. UGA looked very bad in that loss to Ole Miss and their QB play has been weak (17 TDs vs, 12 INTs). AL is a few steps below Saban standards (they were also weaker in 2023).

 

[stlnd01]

Alabama and UGA are getting a bit too much credit based on reputation. UGA looked very bad in that loss to Ole Miss and their QB play has been weak (17 TDs vs, 12 INTs). AL is a few steps below Saban standards (they were also weaker in 2023).

They're not what they were, in the sense that they are beatable, but they'll step onto the field with more talent than anyone except maybe Ohio State, and with the proper focus and time to prepare I'd bet they win more playoff games than they lose.

 

[LifelongFan]

The percentages above change quite a bit based on where the game is played.

Unless the committee wants to rethink their position on Penn State, I don't see ND getting higher than 8. I know there is a ton of football left but this scenario seems likely:

5 seed - Big 10 CG loser
6 seed SEC CG loser
7 Penn State
8-11 - ND, several two loss SEC teams and maybe a one loss IU or two loss OSU.
12 Boise

If Penn State and ND run the table, the loser of the ACC and Big 12 title games are not getting an at large bid, even if it's a one loss BYU team.

I would be surprised if ND isn't matched up with a SEC team in the first round, and tonight’s rankings will likely reveal if that game will be at home or away, depending on how Notre Dame is ranked relative to Alabama and Ole Miss.

Agreed. We peak at 8, four SEC teams plus four Big 10 teams plus the three other autobids. If IU gets stomped in Columbus they may be out for a 2 loss Miami.

 

[LifelongFan]

Dinich: I would hesitate to eliminate a 3-loss SEC team from CFP (She did qualify that if it were Ole Miss or LSU with 3 losses, she would eliminate them, but not GA or AL).

SEC idiots have done this every year that the playoff has existed and it has never worked out like that. If Georgia loses another game, I guess they have their big win over Texas but they choked in 3 games as favorites, no chance. If Bama loses again, it means they lost to Mercer, Oklahoma, or Auburn, all of which will get rid of any benefit of the doubt for them. I could see a 3 loss SEC team getting in if they aren't really going to punish teams for losing in the CCG (right now Bama is really in line to make the SECCG).

 

[Rockin’Irish]

They're not what they were, in the sense that they are beatable, but they'll step onto the field with more talent than anyone except maybe Ohio State, and with the proper focus and time to prepare I'd bet they win more playoff games than they lose.

I agree with you but I don’t think they should be receiving too much juice about getting into the CFP with 3 losses. I know it depends on how the rest of the field looks, of course.

 

[Irish#1]

Minnesota can do us a favor beat them in a couple weeks. They have a bye this week and they're at home, so hopefully Fleck has them ready to ruin Penn State's season

I have no confidence that the Gophers will win. They don’t have much of a history of pulling upsets.

 

[zelezo vlk]

I have no confidence that the Gophers will win. They don’t have much of a history of pulling upsets.

Fleck did beat James Franklin and PSU once back in 2019. I remember as a couple people on here went apoplectic demanding that PJ Fleck be the coach as he would do better than Kelly lol

 

[ThePiombino]

LMFAO would be just our luck to be ranked 8th and somehow fucked out of a home game

ADD: PSU ranked #4 is a fucking shamockery

 

[NDBoiler]

Is this just an espn thing with these seeds vs rankings?