2023-2024 NFL Season

[Some Irish Bloke]

Yeah the argument of score-score-win is really interesting. I would guess the math says your odds are better taking the ball first in the event that the game it isn’t decided in the first two possessions.

Who's to say that KC wouldn't have gone for two in that scenario, though? Idk if Reid would've kicked back to SF the way they were moving the ball and how well Mooney was playing last night. Seems like Shanahan screwed up, should've kicked, IMO.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

The Chiefs only TD in regulation came in the third quarter after the punt that hit a 49er on a fluke. The Chiefs offense did little else other than field goals and their defense was gassed overall.

Chris Jones said after the game that if the Niners had scored a touchdown, the Chiefs would have gone for two. I wasn't terribly surprised the Niners took the ball first, but once they got the field goal instead of the TD, you had to cringe a bit. Then Mahomes and Reid found rhythm for the first time all night when they absolutely needed it most. Game over.

Zero incompletions on that final drive. Lesson learned. Keep the ball out of Mahomes' hands.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

 

[Lberry]

I think it's as simple as both defenses were gassed and by taking ball not only do you keep Chiefs defense on field but you rest yours. This is why analytics guys rarely lead teams.

Also, kicking and giving up a TD and never getting a shot in OT via a Mahomes TD would be an unforgettable crime. At least get your chance guaranteed.

 

[greyhammer90]

I think it depends on the situation, and I think the situation there called for taking the ball first. The real issue is that they had the chiefs in a 2nd and 14 and absolutely whiffed on two consecutive defensive calls.

 

[CousinEddy]

I think it's as simple as both defenses were gassed and by taking ball not only do you keep Chiefs defense on field but you rest yours. This is why analytics guys rarely lead teams.

Also, kicking and giving up a TD and never getting a shot in OT via a Mahomes TD would be an unforgettable crime. At least get your chance guaranteed.

You do know that in the post season the rules have changed. Now each team at least gets the ball no matter if the first team to get the ball scores a TD

 

[sfk324]

You do know that in the post season the rules have changed. Now each team at least gets the ball no matter if the first team to get the ball scores a TD

Of course he doesn't know that, dingle is the king of talking out of his ass.

 

[Lberry]

You do know that in the post season the rules have changed. Now each team at least gets the ball no matter if the first team to get the ball scores a TD

I didn't know that, I don't really watch NFL anymore. Is this a new rule or been around for a few years? The right move was still giving his defense a rest but this makes it a legit debate.

 

[IrishLion]

I guess the rule change was a good one since there's so much debate, and no clear right answer lol.

Both positions have their advantages and disadvantages, and as many of you pointed out, it also depends on how long your defense may have been on the field prior to OT.

Going first is an advantage if OT goes to three possessions.

Going second is an advantage because you know exactly what you need, and [kind of] operate with an extra down.

I would probably lean with putting my defense on the field first if reasonable. Might put my offense out there first if I had no faith in my defense to get a stop.

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

Credentials: PhD in Math, have modeled sports in the past, now work in analytics (not sports-related)

It’s not incredibly clear cut and I don’t have the data to prove it, but I would venture that the benefit of having the extra down and knowing what you need to do outweighs the benefit you get from having sudden death in the case where both teams match result in the first two drives.

It’s an interesting debate because both sides have arguments they can point to. But it feels much more common that you’ll get your opponent to a 4th down than you’ll trade exact score results after two drives, especially when the second team will almost definitely go for 2 if a TD-TD is scored.

I’ll say it again. On the second drive in OT the Chiefs converted on one or two fourth downs because they had to. If they had started with the ball they might have punted. Or probably… Reid is one of the most conservative coaches in the NFL.

It’s not like this game was a shootout ala Chiefs/Bills a year or two ago where you basically assume two TDs in OT.

It’s close as others have mentioned in this thread, but I would estimate getting the ball second gives you an increase in win probability by 3-7%.

 

[ulukinatme]

The only possible rationales you can give are maybe:

- SF defense was just on the field at the end of regulation and was still gassed
- Going first allows you to go for the win in the event of TD-TD or FG-FG.

Still, feels very much like there is a greater advantage to going second. Hell, if Chiefs start with the ball, I’m not so sure they go for it on 4th and short.

Terrible decision to win the kickoff and start with the ball IMO.

Niners players: We didn't know overtime rules

Multiple 49ers players said they were not aware of the NFL's postseason overtime rules.

www.espn.com

Yup, other possible rationale seems to be that nobody clued the 49ers players on the new overtime rules based on the ESPN article and Jigg's comments. I don't know how they overlooked that.

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

The thought (SF deferring because they forgot about the new rule) did briefly cross my mind. I’m not surprised some of the players didn’t know - for many of them, it’s not their job. But also, it’s like, don’t admit that, that’s a bad look. If the coaching staff and analytics team didn’t know - that’s a travesty. Shanahan immediately after the game said he was trying to play for sudden death on the third possession in the event of TD-TD, which would imply he knew about the new rule, but obviously if he didn’t at the time of the coin flop he would probably save face in the postgame.

And for those arguing about taking the ball first because the defense was still gassed… if your defense is still spent after a 5+ minute real-time break while switching to OT, to the point of forcing your hand on that decision, maybe you deserve to lose.

Chiefs FG at the end of regulation, kickoff, kneel downs, commercial break, OT explanation, coin flip, kickoff etc should be enough to let the defense recover.

 

[Lberry]

70% of the points came in 2nd half, 42% can in the 4th quarter alone, so IMO it was pretty clear what kind of a game this was turning into late. Kyle knew this and knew his defense needed a breather. It's hard to say right call when it didn't work out but the result may have been the exact same regardless.

Mahomes might be the greatest QB to ever play when all is said and done.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

Feel terrible for McCaffrey. Felt like they would take the ball out of his hands everytime it was on the line.

Jones and Chenal were absolutely blowing up the interior OL of the Niners all night. It had to have had something to do with it. The Dolphins, Bills and Ravens all ditched the run against KC in the playoffs as well.

 

[ulukinatme]

70% of the points came in 2nd half, 42% can in the 4th quarter alone, so IMO it was pretty clear what kind of a game this was turning into late. Kyle knew this and knew his defense needed a breather. It's hard to say right call when it didn't work out but the result may have been the exact same regardless.

Mahomes might be the greatest QB to ever play when all is said and done.

Giving the greatest QB an extra down isn't a great winning strategy. That's what the 49ers essentially did by taking the ball first. Normally you wouldn't go for it on 4th down on your own side of the field, but given that it was overtime and the 49ers already scored it forced the Chiefs' hand. If the Chiefs had the ball first maybe they still go for it on that 4th down there and maybe they still score the TD, but it would have also forced the 49ers hand and would have pushed them to go for it on 4th down themselves had they chosen to take the ball 2nd.

Given the fact the Chiefs scored the TD anyway even after having the breather, you absolutely have to say that the 49ers screwed up by not taking the ball 2nd. They would have been the ones going for it on 4th, giving them the extra down and a chance to tie (or possibly win if the Chiefs had ended up punting instead).

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

You lose, you're going to be second, third and fourth guessed about everything now. Dan Campbell, Kyle Shanahan, doesn't matter. There has to be blame placed at the feet of someone, anyone, to account for a loss in what is regarding as THE team sport. Mind you, the Chiefs were supposedly having struggles during the regular season that were being blamed on the tight end's girlfriend being a "distraction." If the Niners win this game, that narrative probably stays alive to a degree, but it's Andy Reid being second guessed about every little thing.

I thought both defenses were fantastic and really took two talented play callers and two talented QBs off of their games more often than not.

It was an entertaining game.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

Eric Bieniemy could return to the Chiefs

Former OC could be back, possibly as assistant head coach.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

 

[IRISHDODGER]

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

 

[IrishLion]

#TheTSizzleEffect

 

[Giddyup]

What about the gender? Pigs. How the hell do they know the sex of the viewer? What if the homeboy is stopping over to watch the game.

 

[Huntr]

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

What a fucking pudwhack.

 

[Giddyup]

Lol. That was pretty obvious when Wilks was clueless the whole second half.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

 

[MKEagle]

Cook County values the property at $192M
Chicago Bears values the property at $60M-$71M

That's a... sizable gap

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

Cook County values the property at $192M
Chicago Bears values the property at $60M-$71M

That's a... sizable gap

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

Good hire.