Playoffs

[NormND_44]

The Irish can 100% make the playoffs. All the narratives in sept are always turned on their head come November.

However, IMO, if the Irish make the playoffs this is the best ND team in the last 25 years. It will mean they beat Duke, Lville, U$C and Clemson… if they can pull that off, I will be blown away.

A win this weekend would be fantastic. I think it’s going to be really tough. But I believe in em.

 

[Terry Jillery]

The following teams have a chance to be 11-1 or better

FSU
Washington
Oregon
Michigan
Georgia
Oklahoma
Texas
PSU


I’m know I’m missing many others. They don’t control their destiny anymore. Hartman is one year short of an easier playoff path. I don’t know if he’d even play in a NY6? Would Alt?

 

[calvegas04]

Doesn't matter...UW is winning it all. Mark it.

I'll allow it

 

[CTIDANDREW]

All they can do is beat Duke.

It isn't even October yet.

The day that Sam Hartman decided to come to Notre Dame it was playoffs, or bust for this program this season.
Unless we join a confrence, it is quite literally the only thing our boys have to play for...

Therefore, it is completey fair for us to begin the discussion about what now needs to happen for our program to achieve this goal with one loss.
What is the point of shying away from the discussion?
This is Notre Dame football, and we have the best Quarterback behind center since Brady Quinn.
We need to capitalize on this opportunity, or it is a disappointment of a season.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

The day that Sam Hartman decided to come to Notre Dame it was playoffs, or bust for this program this season.
Unless we join a confrence, it is quite literally the only thing our boys have to play for...

Therefore, it is completey fair for us to begin the discussion about what now needs to happen for our program to achieve this goal with one loss.
What is the point of shying away from the discussion?
This is Notre Dame football, and we have the best Quarterback behind center since Brady Quinn.
We need to capitalize on this opportunity, or it is a disappointment of a season.

Ok. I'll begin the discussion by talking about what needs to be done to beat Duke in the Duke thread.

 

[CTIDANDREW]

Ok. I'll begin the discussion by talking about what needs to be done to beat Duke in the Duke thread.

Yes, totally agree on that.
I think the best purpose of this thread is to map out ( for those interested) on a week by week basis what we need to happen for ND to make the playoffs as a one loss team with no 13th (conf champ) game.
I appreciate the optimism from those in this thread that if we win out things will take care of itself, but the committee has proven to us that an 11-1 ND team doesn’t make the playoff in the past.
We’re going to need some help now, and for our opponents to keep winning to improve the resume.

 

[mrmcgrail]

That has never happened so you don't know what they would do with a 11-1 team

 

[CTIDANDREW]

That has never happened so you don't know what they would do with a 11-1 team

Yes, I know that our SOS was complete shit and we didn't have a marquee victory but it 100% has already happened.

In addition, I know this is ancient history at this point but there is no way we would have made the 2015 College football playoff if we would have pulled off the victory at Stanford either, when you look at the resumes of what ND's would have been vs Oklahoma and MSU that made it as the 3rd and 4th seed that year.

We're going to need a lot of help.
This is the risk we take when wanting to stay independent.

 

[BoredIrish]

FWIW if there was a 12 team playoff this year, that OSU loss becomes a "win".

 

[mrmcgrail]

Shit you're right I forgot about 2021

 

[CANONIZEFATHERSORIN]

Guarantee if we go 11-1 and OSU wins The Game we’re in

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

I agree if we go 11-1 we’re in.

But also if we have an 75% chance of winning each game (which feels optimistic), the prob of going 7-0 is about 13%.

Onto Duke. Let’s just take it week by week.

 

[NorthDakota]

Can we still make them? Thoughts?

If 11-1, very good shot. That would mean pretty good wins, and one of the "better/best" losses (assuming OSU goes on to have a good year).

Convincing wins over Duke, SC, and Clemson would go a long way. So far, doesn't look like a dominant year for anyone so wouldn't be shocked if there is a logjam of 1-2 loss teams.

 

[irishff1014]

There is still a chance. The field is very week this year but we need to beat Duke and USC. I think USC is going to be tougher then Ohio State though, Ohio State isn't physical.

It’s going to be less physical. Sam is gonna need to earn his pay to help the defense. And we have to get POINTS!

 

[NDpendent]

It’s going to be less physical. Sam is gonna need to earn his pay to help the defense. And we have to get POINTS!

I just added the physical part to poke fun at Ryan Day

 

[CTIDANDREW]

There is still a chance. The field is very week this year but we need to beat Duke and USC. I think USC is going to be tougher then Ohio State though, Ohio State isn't physical.

What makes you say that?
I feel like for the first time in a while every major five conference has a very impressive team.

SEC: Two time defending champ. That could sleep walk it's way to the SEC champ game undefeated. Even with one loss they will almost certainly get into the playoff over us because of being the two time defending champion...and regardless if they don't make it whoever wins that conference will.
Big Ten: Three teams in the top 6. It's almost 100% certain one of those teams make it even with one loss if they beat each other up.
ACC: FSU who at this point could have a better resume then ND even if they loss a close game, and win the ACC champ game. We BADLY need this conference to beat each other up!
Big 12: Texas. Even if they loss a close one in league play, but win the Big 12 championship game they will likely have a better resume.
Pac 12: Four teams within the top 10. Best case scenario we beat USC and then they go on to win the Pac 12 title game. That is 100% what we need to be rooting for, so that we can knock out that conference entirely.

We have a long way to go, but its a very deep pool this year with great quarterback play from a lot of bigger programs (Oregon, Washington, Texas, FSU, PSU) that haven't had that in recent memory.
We're going to need a good deal of chaos to get in as a 11-1 independent with no game on championship weekend.

It starts with Louisville winning on Friday night, and giving us two straight road opportunities to beat undefeated teams in primetime.
Style points will loom large this year for sure.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

We're rolling into Conference play and October here pretty soon. The chaos will commence and the pretenders will be exposed.

Maryland will go to Columbus unbeaten should they beat IU. They host PSU and Michigan. I don't know how good they really are, but we'll find out soon enough if they can cause some disruption.

The PAC 12 is going to start picking each other off here soon enough.

Just feels like a lot of guys are taking care of OOC September business more than usual. Syracuse finished an OOC slate unbeaten for the first time since 1991. They were in the Big East FFS.

ND is going to play back to back road night games and then face Caleb Williams under the lights at home. That's four straight night games. You know Clemson and Stanford will be at night too.

 

[NDFAN2008]

Can't believe we went 11-1 in 2021. Shoulda went 12-0 and that team wasn't really that good. Betrand was the leading tackler on the team and Lewis was second.

 

[NDFAN2008]

How does Lewis have 44 tackles and second on the team in 2021 but yet he barely plays this year?

 

[RDU Irish]

View attachment 3054456

Yes, I know that our SOS was complete shit and we didn't have a marquee victory but it 100% has already happened.

In addition, I know this is ancient history at this point but there is no way we would have made the 2015 College football playoff if we would have pulled off the victory at Stanford either, when you look at the resumes of what ND's would have been vs Oklahoma and MSU that made it as the 3rd and 4th seed that year.

We're going to need a lot of help.
This is the risk we take when wanting to stay independent.

The 2021 team had no business making the playoff but would have been there had Cinci lost somewhere along the way. Beating ND at home paved their way over us. By contrast - Ohio State makes the playoffs whether they beat us or not if they spank the B1G. Cincy won the privilege of getting smashed by Bama.

1-1 against the top 25 with win over #18 Wisconsin - no comparison to this year if we go 11-1 with a defeat-snatched-from-the-jaws-of-victory loss to respected top tier program OSU, win over defending Heisman QB team ranked in the top 10, wins over Duke and Clemson providing a ranked opponent and respected program. Nobody is going to question this year's SoS.

The real problem this year is the competitive landscape. SEC and B1G champs are locks for a spot unless some 2 loss west division team upsets the east winner in CCG. FSU and Texas control their destiny with manageable schedules - they both go undefeated and we aren't getting in. Pac12 winner with one loss should be in over us too, unless we get a transitive title by beating USC if win the conference.

2021 was a game of not-it - this year could be the opposite. ND winning out is definitely in the hunt.

 

[GATTACA!]

Because almost every team in the top ten has looked beatable against questionable teams.
#3 Texas was tied with Wyoming through three quarters
#2 Michigan struggled in the first half versus BGSU and Rutgers
#5 Florida State had a nail beater against Boston College
#9 Oregon had a close game against Texas Tech
#10 Utah has had a close game every week.
#6 Penn State hasn't really blown anyone out.

The field just doesn't look that impressive to me this year and most teams have gaps somewhere

It really bothers me that you put those out of order lol.

 

[notredomer23]

It really bothers me that you put those out of order lol.

 

[CTIDANDREW]

Because almost every team in the top ten has looked beatable against questionable teams.
#3 Texas was tied with Wyoming through three quarters
#2 Michigan struggled in the first half versus BGSU and Rutgers
#5 Florida State had a nail beater against Boston College
#9 Oregon had a close game against Texas Tech
#10 Utah has had a close game every week.
#6 Penn State hasn't really blown anyone out.

The field just doesn't look that impressive to me this year and most teams have gaps somewhere

Okay, I mean we could round and round on this so I'll just agree to disagree. Texas won that game by three touchdowns, PSU has beat (3) power five opponents by 17+, Utah hasn't had their best player yet, FSU has the best resume of likely anyone in the country at present, etc...

My overall point is that it is shaping up (I know it's very early) to look like each one of the five power conferences will have a champion with at most one loss. Unless chaos ensues, which I pray that it does.
I know we say this every year, but when you look at schedules and the plethora of great college quarterbacks at programs that usually don't have one (McShay said on Russillo's Pod yesterday he has a first to high second round grades on 7 guys this year!).
It tends to seem more likely this year we won't see two plus Power 5 champions with two losses.

My biggest worry about staying independent during the four team playoff era, is that it will be incredibly difficult for a one loss ND team to break into the top 4 over two power five conference champions without the benefit of having that 13th game.
I hope that I'm wrong, but 2015 (pre Stanford loss), and 2021 are both good examples that it's very tough to pull off for ND.

 

[RDU Irish]

Okay, I mean we could round and round on this so I'll just agree to disagree. Texas won that game by three touchdowns, PSU has beat (3) power five opponents by 17+, Utah hasn't had their best player yet, FSU has the best resume of likely anyone in the country at present, etc...

My overall point is that it is shaping up (I know it's very early) to look like each one of the five power conferences will have a champion with at most one loss. Unless chaos ensues, which I pray that it does.
I know we say this every year, but when you look at schedules and the plethora of great college quarterbacks at programs that usually don't have one (McShay said on Russillo's Pod yesterday he has a first to high second round grades on 7 guys this year!).
It tends to seem more likely this year we won't see two plus Power 5 champions with two losses.

My biggest worry about staying independent during the four team playoff era, is that it will be incredibly difficult for a one loss ND team to break into the top 4 over two power five conference champions without the benefit of having that 13th game.
I hope that I'm wrong, but 2015 (pre Stanford loss), and 2021 are both good examples that it's very tough to pull off for ND.

Beat everyone by 2TDs or more the rest of the way out with 500 yard of offense every week would be a good start for sneaking in tho.

 

[forkbeard3777]

Can we still make them? Thoughts?

There are still so many teams still in the mix.............

-Notre Dame
-Washington-
-Utah
-USC
-Oregon
-Washington State
-Georgia
-Alabama
-LSU
-FSU
-UNC
-Miami
-Texas
-Oklahoma
-Penn St.
-Ohio State
-Michigan

Good news is that a lot of football is still left to be played. Many of these teams face their conference foes and will cannibalize each other. Obviously, ND needs to win out, and they need strong showings against Duke, Louisville, USC, and Clemson. If you can stomach it, I guess you need to pull for USC and Ohio State as well.

ETA: This season may have that 2007 level of craziness.

 

[NDWarrior]

All of this is true and you never know what's gonna happen - There are always upsets and chaos right down the last game of the season, sometimes even on conf. championship Saturday. As many have been saying, as long as the team comes together and really starts beating up teams, ND will be a very strong candidate for the playoffs. When the 12-team expanded playoffs start, ND will have a good chance every year (almost an annual shoo-in), but this year, alas, it's still only 4 teams. I will say there have been years when you just know no team is gonna touch an early killer-looking team the rest of the season - think Joe Burrow's LSU Tigers and Mac Jones' 'bama Tide - but there have been some teams over the years who really turned things around early and could have won the whole thing, but unfortunately, with only a 4-team playoff (and only a 2-team one before that), they have never got the chance to do so. But that will all change with a 12-team playoff and that will make things exciting, even as traditional rivalries and undefeated seasons become a thing of the past. To me, the perfect example is Pete Carroll's '02 Trojans who were 3-2 but ended up winning out and beat Iowa handily in the Orange Bowl. After a close 6th game, they started whipping team's butts (including ND, 44-13) and in a 12-team playoff would have likely won the whole thing. Miami and OSU were undefeated but I think USC would have given either team a run for their $ that year. Maybe that will be ND this year? Hoping so...

 

[WildMan1]

First off we need the Buckeyes to win out. They do that & we do that I think it shakes out in our favor.. If they don’t & we do it’s significantly harder.

They cause chaos by beating both Michigan & Penn St. thus keeping them out of the Big10 championship & then they play each other giving one team 2 losses. Ideally Michigan beats PennSt to give them 2 losses but still loses to us on strength of schedule.

FSU still has Duke, Miami & Florida.. Drop to Duke & we have a head to head advantage.

Washington, Oregon, USC & Utah need to get dirty.. The easy way is obviously we beat USC & they beat the other 3.. but that’s unlikely.

I think Washington wins out..

I don’t trust Texas to win out..

Final Four if we take care of business..

1) Georgia 2) Ohio St 3) Washington 4) ND

 

[GATTACA!]

First off we need the Buckeyes to win out. They do that & we do that I think it shakes out in our favor.. If they don’t & we do it’s significantly harder.

They cause chaos by beating both Michigan & Penn St. thus keeping them out of the Big10 championship & then they p play each other giving one team 2 losses. Ideally Michigan beats PennSt to give them 2 losses but still losses to us on strength of schedule.

FSU still has Duke, Miami & Florida.. Drop to Duke & we have a head to head advantage.

Washington, Oregon, USC & Utah need to get dirty.. The easy way is obviously we beat USC & they beat the other 3.. but that’s unlikely.

I think Washington wins out..

I don’t trust Texas to win out..

Final Four if we take care of business..

1) Georgia 2) Ohio St 3) Washington 4) ND

Imagine a rematch with OSU with the natty on the line? I need to start popping heart pills now.

 

[JamIrish]

Texas, Georgia, Pac 12 team, big10 team in the final 4. FSU as a possible playoff team if the Pac12 cannibalizes itself. But look for Georgia to repeat or Texas to win it all.

 

[WildMan1]

Imagine a rematch with OSU with the natty on the line? I need to start popping heart pills now.

It's not incredibly far fetched.. I won't sleep well if that happens lol

The natty is really up for the taking this year.. It's such a shame we dropped this one. I'm hoping they have a Tim Tebow 08 moment when they lost early to Ole MIss and then went off..

I really think Parker called a soft first half with the intention of playing field position as a priority, instead of outright attacking when we clearly have some young guns capable of making plays.

We have a rented Ferrari for one year... We need to step on the gas & impose our will for once.. especially now.

Just YOLO this offense.. we need to be 2014 Baylor out there.. Let the kids go. We have nothing to lose.. Hartman is gone next year.. We need to win and win impressively.

I wish we had some better depth at DL.. that's the glaring hole. I was just watching the 2015 Amazon season doc and seeing Jarron Jones, Jerry Tillery, Sheldon Day, Isaac Rochell, Romeo Okwara, Jonathon Bonner & Ishaq Williams all on the same depth chart has me envious.