Playoffs

[Terry Jillery]

Thoughts?

 

[WildMan1]

Thoughts?

He clearly hasn't done any math to back this..

There's absolutely multiple paths to the playoffs..

 

[WildMan1]

2021–22	Cotton Bowl	1 Alabama (12–1)	4 Cincinnati (13–0)	27–6	76,313	AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Orange Bowl	3 Georgia (12–1)	2 Michigan (12–1)	34–11	66,839	Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
2022–23	Fiesta Bowl	3 TCU (12–1)	2 Michigan (13–0)	51–45	71,723	State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Peach Bowl	1 Georgia (13–0)	4 Ohio State (11–1)	42–41	79,330	Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia

 

[WildMan1]

That was a sloppy copy but the point remains.. 1 loss teams can get in. He's claiming bc we don't have a conference championship that we won't.

It's just not accurate.. The paths will become much clearer as conference play pans out.

 

[BleedingGold]

Can we still make them? Of course. The margin for error has been greatly diminished. We must win the perceived easy games by reasonable margins and look like a real contender when facing Duke, Clemson, and USC. With that, at 11-1, it will come down to a combination of Big Ten champ, Florida State, SEC champ, Big 12 champ, Notre Dame, and Oregon. Yes we need a touch of magic but I’d put our odds better than average to be #4.

 

[stlnd01]

That was a sloppy copy but the point remains.. 1 loss teams can get in. He's claiming bc we don't have a conference championship that we won't.

It's just not accurate.. The paths will become much clearer as conference play pans out.

From about now until around the second week of November, every year, everyone acts like upsets never happen in college football.

And every year, upsets happen. Maybe FSU and a Big 12 team both run the table but history would suggest it’s not very likely. Same in the Pac-12.

All we can do is take care of our business but if we do that we absofuckinglutely still have a shot to land in the playoffs.

Biggest things that would help us are Ohio State winning the Big Ten and one of Duke/Clemson/USC winning their conference. Even if, say, Florida State wins the ACC but drops a game somewhere along the way, we’d have a lot of common opponents to compare, and probably we didn’t need OT to beat Clemson. For instance.

 

[NDWarrior]

College Football Playoff predicted to stay with 12-team format for the 2024 season

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

Maybe it's just me, but I feel like the "what if" scenarios have started way early. I wonder if it has something to do with resurgent teams like Texas and Florida State being at the top of the polls right now. I don't have numbers to back this, but it also feels like a lot of Power Five teams took care of business in September prior to conference play to the point that there are 3-0 and 4-0 teams scattered about more than usual.

All ND can do is run the table to 11-1 again. My hope is that Ohio State winds up with more than one loss, and I think there is a very good chance that's going to happen based on what we saw Saturday in addition to how they looked in week one vs IU.

Just beat Duke and then lock in on the next one. With Hartman, ND has as good of a chance as ever at running the table.

 

[WildMan1]

Maybe it's just me, but I feel like the "what if" scenarios have started way early. I wonder if it has something to do with resurgent teams like Texas and Florida State being at the top of the polls right now. I don't have numbers to back this, but it also feels like a lot of Power Five teams took care of business in September prior to conference play to the point that there are 3-0 and 4-0 teams scattered about more than usual.

All ND can do is run the table to 11-1 again. My hope is that Ohio State winds up with more than one loss, and I think there is a very good chance that's going to happen based on what we saw Saturday in addition to how they looked in week one vs IU.

Just beat Duke and then lock in on the next one. With Hartman, ND has as good of a chance as ever at running the table.

It’s much better off if OSU wins out but yea I get what ur saying.. Michigan & Penn St could both beat them.

I think it gets much harder for us at that point bc that gives both of those teams a head to head & one of them will likely be undefeated & the other a 1 loss team at that point.. With a win over who we lost to.

Buckeyes win out & we win out is the easiest scenario.. That keeps Michigan & PSU out of a conference champ game & us with the strength of schedule.

I’m convinced FSU will drop multiple games.. Texas is the problem. Outside of Oklahoma their schedule is weak af.. and if Oklahoma wins that game they will catapult up as a likely still undefeated.

Lots of football to be played but ideally at the end of it we have 1 last second loss to the #1 seed & I think it shakes out in our favor.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

It’s much better off if OSU wins out but yea I get what ur saying.. Michigan & Penn St could both beat them.

I think it gets much harder for us at that point bc that gives both of those teams a head to head & one of them will likely be undefeated & the other a 1 loss team at that point.. With a win over who we lost to.

Buckeyes win out & we win out is the easiest scenario.. That keeps Michigan & PSU out of a conference champ game & us with the strength of schedule.

I’m convinced FSU will drop multiple games.. Texas is the problem. Outside of Oklahoma their schedule is weak af.. and if Oklahoma wins that game they will catapult up as a likely still undefeated.

Lots of football to be played but ideally at the end of it we have 1 last second loss to the #1 seed & I think it shakes out in our favor.

When you say "multiple", how many and to whom specifically. I agree Texas has a favorable slate but I think FSU does too.

 

[WildMan1]

When you say "multiple", how many and to whom specifically. I agree Texas has a favorable slate but I think FSU does too.

I’m re watching the FSU - Clemson game at home right now & I think between Duke, Miami & Florida that FSU will drop 2..

They’re defense is suspect.. Last game in the swamp is def an L imo.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

I’m re watching the FSU - Clemson game at home right now & I think between Duke, Miami & Florida that FSU will drop 2..

They’re defense is suspect.. Last game in the swamp is def an L imo.

The other two are at home.

They go Miami at home, North Alabama at home and then at The Swamp.

The two big rivalry games last with a check cutting game in between. That's pretty wild.

 

[CTIDANDREW]

It’s much better off if OSU wins out but yea I get what ur saying.. Michigan & Penn St could both beat them.

I think it gets much harder for us at that point bc that gives both of those teams a head to head & one of them will likely be undefeated & the other a 1 loss team at that point.. With a win over who we lost to.

Buckeyes win out & we win out is the easiest scenario.. That keeps Michigan & PSU out of a conference champ game & us with the strength of schedule.

I’m convinced FSU will drop multiple games.. Texas is the problem. Outside of Oklahoma their schedule is weak af.. and if Oklahoma wins that game they will catapult up as a likely still undefeated.

Lots of football to be played but ideally at the end of it we have 1 last second loss to the #1 seed & I think it shakes out in our favor.

If you truly believe that, and are a betting man you should be running not walking to your nearest sportsbook, because Vegas has the O/U on 11.5 at (+150 Over & -185 Under) ...so Vegas rates them quite high this early in the season.
I understand when you say multiple games you could be also speaking about a possible ACC Champ game, but unless they lose two games or loss convincingly vs a team that we beat...it's very unlikely that ND has a path to have a better resume then FSU as things stand now.

 

[CTIDANDREW]

Yes, I know it's ESPN...but boy do we need to start having some of these teams above us start losing some games to help our playoff chances.
We need one of either Oklahoma or Texas to win big to hopefully remove the other from the conversation for the playoffs for now. A close win either way would not be ideal. We need to move forward with the belief that one of those two programs is likely making the final four when you look at thier remaining schedule after this weekend. If whoever loses this weekend, then beats the other in the Big 12 title game then that would be some debate.

Texas A&M removing Bama from the equation this weekend would be great as well. The best case scenario for the SEC would be some two or three lose SEC West champ making the conf title game and beating Georgia convincingly. If there was ever a year for a four team playoff not to include an SEC team this would be the year, which I admit does sound crazy when Georgia is the two time defending champ.
A 12-1 Georgia with a two score loss in the SEC champ game vs an 11-1 ND would be a great debate for the committee as long as we have some convincing victories down the stretch.

We're going to need to hope the Pac 12 just experiences absolute chaos, and somehow USC wins the Pac 12 championship game, because I'm struggling to see a world where we make it with a Pac 12 program also making it.

SEC champ, Oklahoma or Texas, Big Ten Champ, and then likely would come down to either an undefeated or one loss FSU, Pac 12 champ that isn't USC, or an 11-1 ND for that final spot. We're going to need to start winning big to help our resume, because FSU is going to be tough for us to overcome even if they do loss a close game down the stretch.
It starts this week vs a thankfully ranked Louisville team. Win by two scores and look dominant then the USC game next week will be everything we need it to be to help our chances.

 

[NDRock]

We have the 3rd highest “win out” percentage.

 

[CTIDANDREW]

We have the 3rd highest “win out” percentage.

Yes, I have no doubt if we go 11-1 that our resume will be put up against conf champs who likely will also have one loss.
My worry is that the committee will continue to value that 13th game, and put in either a 12-1 team that loses thier conf champ over us, or either a team that wins thier conf title game that then gets them to 12-1

Obviously, we benefited from this in 2020 when the committee honored our regular season over Texas A&M's even though Clemson kicked our asses in the ACC title game.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

ESPN is really digging Ohio State and not Michigan?

Okay, then.

 

[CTIDANDREW]

ESPN is really digging Ohio State and not Michigan?

Okay, then.

I think it's really interesting how highly rated Oklahoma is as well.
The FPI ratings aren't the only analytical model I've seen with them as a Top Four team right now.
I think most of us were hoping that if Texas lost this weekend, the Big 12 could knock itself out of the playoffs over the next few weeks, but I think it's very likely one of Oklahoma, or Texas finishes the season + Big 12 Title game with one loss or undefeated which I don't see how ND gets in over whichever team that may end up being in that scenario.

 

[GATTACA!]

I think we have to be Oklahoma fans this weekend. Looking at their remaining schedules Texas has no one left.

 

[Rockin’Irish]

I think it's really interesting how highly rated Oklahoma is as well.
The FPI ratings aren't the only analytical model I've seen with them as a Top Four team right now.
I think most of us were hoping that if Texas lost this weekend, the Big 12 could knock itself out of the playoffs over the next few weeks, but I think it's very likely one of Oklahoma, or Texas finishes the season + Big 12 Title game with one loss or undefeated which I don't see how ND gets in over whichever team that may end up being in that scenario.

If ND can persevere and manage to win out……probably going to need some upsets but I suppose that isn’t anything unexpected when trying to crash the party with one loss. I’d be pretty excited if we end up at 11-1 for the regular season no matter what happens with the playoff situation.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

I think it's really interesting how highly rated Oklahoma is as well.
The FPI ratings aren't the only analytical model I've seen with them as a Top Four team right now.
I think most of us were hoping that if Texas lost this weekend, the Big 12 could knock itself out of the playoffs over the next few weeks, but I think it's very likely one of Oklahoma, or Texas finishes the season + Big 12 Title game with one loss or undefeated which I don't see how ND gets in over whichever team that may end up being in that scenario.

Texas gets KSU in Austin and OU doesn't play them.

So I hope Texas beats OU and KSU does that they've done so many times before: muck things up.

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

Wonder what the probability of making playoffs is under the assumption that we win out.

Bayes Theorem says prob(playoffs given ND hits 11-1) = prob(ND hits 11-1 given playoffs) x prob(ND makes playoffs) / prob(ND hits 11-1)

Prob(ND hits 11-1 given playoffs) is basically 1. A 10-2 ND team will not make it.
Prob(ND makes playoffs) from above is .051
Prob(ND hits 11-1) from above is .218

So if we win out, the probability of making playoffs is .051/.218, roughly 23% chance? I’m not buying it, ESPN.

Feels about 50-50 to me, maybe even 60-40.

Either way, just gotta win out and see where the chips fall.

#Math #HireMeAsAnAnalystND

 

[bobbyok1]

Wonder what the probability of making playoffs is under the assumption that we win out.

Bayes Theorem says prob(playoffs given ND hits 11-1) = prob(ND hits 11-1 given playoffs) x prob(ND makes playoffs) / prob(ND hits 11-1)

Prob(ND hits 11-1 given playoffs) is basically 1. A 10-2 ND team will not make it.
Prob(ND makes playoffs) from above is .051
Prob(ND hits 11-1) from above is .218

So if we win out, the probability of making playoffs is .051/.218, roughly 23% chance? I’m not buying it, ESPN.

Feels about 50-50 to me, maybe even 60-40.

Either way, just gotta win out and see where the chips fall.

#Math #HireMeAsAnAnalystND

So an 11-1 team with wins over the #17 team and a top 10 team in USC, with only one loss by 4 points on the last play of the game to the current #1 team in their power rankings only has a 23% chance of making the playoff?
I agree. Not buying it ESPSucks

 

[stlnd01]

I think our odds would go up a lot if we had a win over a conference champion - Duke, USC or Clemson being most likely, though I wouldn't bet on any of those to win their conference. Also would help us a ton if Ohio State wins the Big 10.

 

[Irishdrunk]

Lets beat USC and then have this discussion.

 

[indianamouse]

Lets beat USC and then have this discussion.

I think ND has a good chance this year. We have had plenty of practice with mobile qbs.

 

[JamIrish]

ND is favored by 2.5 over SC next week. Before the year I had ND going 10-2/11-1 with a loss to Clemson/tOSU and Louisville was "my trap game". Texas probably beats Oklahoma this weekend but OU gets them in the Big12 championship. Hard to imagine a scenario where ND makes the playoff, unless the Pac12 and SEC cannabilize theirselves. One loss Big10, FSU, SEC, and Big12 get in over ND. Texas and FSU are almost locks if they only have one loss and One loss Michigan, tOSU, or PSU probably getting in over ND too.

 

[Rockin’Irish]

Lets beat USC and then have this discussion.

Hope the players can come out on fire…..not only is it their 8th game in a row but it’s also finals week. You’d think that scheduling the bye week the same week as finals would have been nice for the team but at least the game is at home.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

So an 11-1 team with wins over the #17 team and a top 10 team in USC, with only one loss by 4 points on the last play of the game to the current #1 team in their power rankings only has a 23% chance of making the playoff?
I agree. Not buying it ESPSucks

It’s a numbers game. There is no room at the inn based on current projections.

They are assuming the PAC, B1G, B12, and SEC champs are all locks, and then you have the possibility of an undefeated FSU to really create some chaos


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[NorthDakota]

It’s a numbers game. There is no room at the inn based on current projections.

They are assuming the PAC, B1G, B12, and SEC champs are all locks, and then you have the possibility of an undefeated FSU to really create some chaos


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Notre Dame really be emulating Christ.