Nov 5 | Clemson

[BleedBlueGold]

Clemson has a better QB and a more balanced offense. Cold and rain make it difficult to move the ball through the air, which neutralizes their main advantage over us. If it comes down to line play, RBs, and special teams, we've got a much better chance of winning.

How much ND run game success is being expected against Clemson, independent of weather?

Our OL is playing great, but they'll still be tested against Clemson's front. Getting push against UNLV and Syracuse stacked boxes is great. Repeating that success against Clemson? I'm not holding my breath. And when that happens and Pyne is 2nd and long 3rd and long, are we expecting him to play better or worse in these conditions? Bottom line, I expect Sot to be a busy man Saturday.

I didn't worry about our defense much going into this game. DJ hasn't been spectacular. Is their passing offense versus our passing defense really that big of advantage to them?

I think ND's chances of winning rises in a cold, rainy, windy game if Clemson has multiple turnovers. Fumbled punts that give ND a short field...that type of thing. Our special teams punt unit will definitely be in the minds of Clemson, so I agree with that point.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

How much ND run game success is being expected against Clemson, independent of weather?

Our OL is playing great, but they'll still be tested against Clemson's front. Getting push against UNLV and Syracuse stacked boxes is great. Repeating that success against Clemson? I'm not holding my breath. And when that happens and Pyne is 2nd and long 3rd and long, are we expecting him to play better or worse in these conditions? Bottom line, I expect Sot to be a busy man Saturday.

Points are probably going to be hard to come by. But we're better equipped to win a rock fight than they are.

I didn't worry about our defense much going into this game. DJ hasn't been spectacular. Is their passing offense versus our passing defense really that big of advantage to them?

Clemson's OFEI is .50, which puts them at 38th nationally. But ours is only .20, which means their offense is two and half times more efficient than ours. The vast majority of that difference comes from DJ and their passing attack. So while he hasn't been spectacular, he's still Peyton Manning compared to Pyne. Neutralizing that advantage should keep the score low and give us a better chance to win an ugly game.

 

[Free Manera]

Thank God that Venables is gone. I would have nightmares thinking about his blitzes against Pyne.

 

[KPENN]

The reason Wake almost beat Clemson was because Hartman was 20-29, 337 YDS, with 6 TD's. Ask yourself if Pyne can do that.

No, but he doesn’t have to. ND can still win with out those numbers.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

This year, I'd rather this game be away than at home. That's really the only thing bothering me about ND's chances. Subpar peformances at home so far and against teams none of whom are as good as Clemson. Not really even close.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Points are probably going to be hard to come by. But we're better equipped to win a rock fight than they are.

Clemson's OFEI is .50, which puts them at 38th nationally. But ours is only .20, which means their offense is two and half times more efficient than ours. The vast majority of that difference comes from DJ and their passing attack. So while he hasn't been spectacular, he's still Peyton Manning compared to Pyne. Neutralizing that advantage should keep the score low and give us a better chance to win an ugly game.

I was comparing ND's defense to their offense though. ND's DFEI is ranked 16th nationally, correct? So I guess my point was that I wasn't too worried about Clemson exploding offensively to begin with. Bad weather will help, for sure, but I was more questioning those licking their chops at this weather forecast. The onus likely falls on ND's offense to find a way to move the ball and I feel bad weather hurts ND more. Mainly because they're already so one-dimensional. It seems obvious they are going to need Pyne to hit some of these passes to 1) keep the chains moving 2) slow the pass rush or 3) have a game-changing TD to Lenzy or Merriweather. Insert wind, rain, cold and I just don't see it happening.

Point taken regarding neutralizing Clemson's offensive efficiency and this being a low scoring ugly game. Maybe they score 17 instead of 24 points? Can ND's one-dimensional offense score 20+? I'm skeptical.

Buy a Kirkland 12 yr on me if they pull this off.** I'll drink to an Irish victory any day.

**directed at Whiskeyjack. Not all you other chumps on this board.

 

[Nostradumbass]

Hopefully the rain will lead some of the old quiet curmudgeons to sell their tickets to the more loud and rowdy ND crowd. The stadium needs some energy for a multitude of reasons.

 

[Irish#1]

Clemson has a better QB and a more balanced offense. Cold and rain make it difficult to move the ball through the air, which neutralizes their main advantage over us. If it comes down to line play, RBs, and special teams, we've got a much better chance of winning.

I don't think mid 40's is really that much of a deterrent though IMO. Now if we're getting rain along with the mid 40's that should be an advantage, but it's only a 24% chance during the game. Now if they're having a walk through during the day it could hurt their preparations.

From weather.com

Sat 05 | Night​

43°


24%
SW 18 mph
Some clouds early will give way to generally clear conditions overnight. Low 43F. Winds SW at 15 to 25 mph.

 

[Irish#1]

This year, I'd rather this game be away than at home. That's really the only thing bothering me about ND's chances. Subpar peformances at home so far and against teams none of whom are as good as Clemson. Not really even close.

That's exactly why I'm glad it's a home game. Clemson will have this teams focus.

 

[stlnd01]

That's exactly why I'm glad it's a home game. Clemson will have this teams focus.

Yeah I can’t imagine we sleepwalk against Clemson like we did against Marshall and UNLV. If we do we’ve got bigger problems than Pyne.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

I don't think mid 40's is really that much of a deterrent though IMO. Now if we're getting rain along with the mid 40's that should be an advantage, but it's only a 24% chance during the game. Now if they're having a walk through during the day it could hurt their preparations.

From weather.com

Sat 05 | Night​

43°


24%
SW 18 mph
Some clouds early will give way to generally clear conditions overnight. Low 43F. Winds SW at 15 to 25 mph.

Yeah I don’t know that Clemson will truly be adversely affected by the cold but it couldn’t hurt to keep DJU/Shipley & Co on the sideline for as long as possible. Long sustained ND drives could really help 43 degree weather be an issue assuming they’re having issues staying warm & loose on the sideline.

 

[greyhammer90]

I'd love to be wrong but Clemson has the defensive tools to say "We're going to make Pyne beat us" and I've seen literally nothing the last few weeks to make me think he can.

 

[tko]

Salerno 3 TD’s

 

[GrangerIrish24]

Salerno 3 TD’s

My man!

 

[Free Manera]

I'd love to be wrong but Clemson has the defensive tools to say "We're going to make Pyne beat us" and I've seen literally nothing the last few weeks to make me think he can.

If Clemson is successful in keeping ND behind the chains, ND can't win. This offense is basically a service academy offense at this point (Babers said that in his post-game and I think he's basically right about it). If you get ND into 3rd and long, you can get them off the field more often than not. Pyne has shown no ability to beat drop 8 coverage, and he will see a healthy dose of that if it is 3rd and long regularly.

Frankly, everyone knows Pyne's limitations at this point. If the staff just asks him to do better, against the best defense he will have faced, they're gonna have a bad time.

Rees has to dial up something in this game to keep Clemson honest so running the ball is viable. Pyne is awful throwing screen passes, so that's out. They did run what looked to be an RPO last game (or it was a pass play designed to look like one) so that might be in the works. If he can be trusted to read a defender and make the right call on a handoff vs. quick game, at least it's something for Clemson to think about.

 

[greyhammer90]

I'll add (as a big fan of Book): The fact that our QB situation has gotten markedly worse since the 2020 game is so fuckin bleak lol. We've been "a QB away" for a long time.

 

[Huntr]

Pyne has shown no ability to beat drop 8 coverage

You'd hope the swing to an open Tyree out of the backfield would be able to go for big gains when that happens, but I suppose that would require throwing an accurate ball every bit of 3 yards.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I wasn't originally going to post this but...

I was curious and looked back through the play-by-play logs for ND's last three and the Irish are just brutal on third and fourth down when they have to pass.

Against Stanford Pyne was 4-11 passing but one completion was short of the first down (and one drop back turned into a run that was short of the first down).

Against UNLV Pyne was 2-9 in those situations and 1 of those completions was short of a first down.

Against Syracuse Pyne was 2-8 plus on another drop back he took a sack.

All told, when Notre Dame gives Drew Pyne the ball on 3rd/4th down they converted 6 of those 30; or 20%. You can't live that way.

 

[Free Manera]

I wasn't originally going to post this but...

I was curious and looked back through the play-by-play logs for ND's last three and the Irish are just brutal on third and fourth down when they have to pass.

Against Stanford Pyne was 4-11 passing but one completion was short of the first down (and one drop back turned into a run that was short of the first down).

Against UNLV Pyne was 2-9 in those situations and 1 of those completions was short of a first down.

Against Syracuse Pyne was 2-8 plus on another drop back he took a sack.

All told, when Notre Dame gives Drew Pyne the ball on 3rd/4th down they converted 6 of those 30; or 20%. You can't live that way.

Yeah Sampson put some numbers in his article on the Athletic and Pyne was something like 1/14 when teams drop 8. Like it's basically a guaranteed 4th down if you get Pyne in 3rd and long and play drop coverage. He doesn't have the strength or accuracy to throw into small windows, and he can't see over the line to quickly find openings.

 

[dublinirish]

Yeah Sampson put some numbers in his article on the Athletic and Pyne was something like 1/14 when teams drop 8. Like it's basically a guaranteed 4th down if you get Pyne in 3rd and long and play drop coverage. He doesn't have the strength or accuracy to throw into small windows, and he can't see over the line to quickly find openings.

can remember OG Stanford D with Skov, Murphy etc giving Rees the same fits when he was at QB as he couldn't scramble nor through with velocity

 

[NDFAN2008]

Keys to game is getting pressure on DJ, I don't see us scoring more than 14 points tho

 

[Dale]

Yeah Sampson put some numbers in his article on the Athletic and Pyne was something like 1/14 when teams drop 8. Like it's basically a guaranteed 4th down if you get Pyne in 3rd and long and play drop coverage. He doesn't have the strength or accuracy to throw into small windows, and he can't see over the line to quickly find openings.

I’ve never seen a “game manager” type QB hate a check down more. He refused to look at Estime all Saturday. Usually QBs with his “skillset” are the opposite. There were at least 3 instances of 3rd and 4 - 8 where it would have been Estime with 4+ yards of cushion vs 1 DB.

 

[dublinirish]

I’ve never seen a “game manager” type QB hate a check down more. He refused to look at Estime all Saturday. Usually QBs with his “skillset” are the opposite. There were at least 3 instances of 3rd and 4 - 8 where it would have been Estime with 4+ yards of cushion vs 1 DB.

pff nobody wanna be a game manager every QB thinks they are Pat Mahomes now

 

[ulukinatme]

Pyne has shown no ability to beat drop 8 coverage, and he will see a healthy dose of that if it is 3rd and long regularly.

Really? When have teams been consistently dropping 8 against Drew? More often than not the last few weeks teams have been loading the box up with just 1 Safety in the middle of the field or even Cover Zero. They know our offense runs almost completely through the RBs and Mayer. If they defend the middle of the field that's all they need to do typically. Credit our OL for still opening holes and Mayer for making tremendous catches to allow us to win. They know we struggle to hit our WRs on the outside at this point, it's no secret. Dropping 8 is a good way to check into a Dive or Draw.

 

[indianamouse]

Estime will go off in this game. Book it.

 

[Free Manera]

Really? When have teams been consistently dropping 8 against Drew? More often than not the last few weeks teams have been loading the box up with just 1 Safety in the middle of the field or even Cover Zero. They know our offense runs almost completely through the RBs and Mayer. If they defend the middle of the field that's all they need to do typically. Credit our OL for still opening holes and Mayer for making tremendous catches to allow us to win. They know we struggle to hit our WRs on the outside at this point, it's no secret. Dropping 8 is a good way to check into a Dive or Draw.

It’s mostly passing downs. Why risk a blitz when you have a 90+% chance of forcing 4th down if you just drop 8?

Sampson either counted the plays up or found the stat somewhere. It wasn’t an insignificant number. And now that everyone knows it, it’s gonna happen a lot more often.

 

[ulukinatme]

It’s mostly passing downs. Why risk a blitz when you have a 90+% chance of forcing 4th down if you just drop 8?

Sampson either counted the plays up or found the stat somewhere. It wasn’t an insignificant number. And now that everyone knows it, it’s gonna happen a lot more often.

Was it in his podcast? I only found two posts referencing Syracuse dropping 8, and one had Drew hit Colzie for a 1st. I know they definitely did it a couple times, but more often than not the last few weeks it feels like teams are only leaving one Safety deep because they don't respect Drew's ability to hit the WRs on the outside (And rightfully so).

 

[Huntr]

Was it in his podcast? I only found two posts referencing Syracuse dropping 8, and one had Drew hit Colzie for a 1st. I know they definitely did it a couple times, but more often than not the last few weeks it feels like teams are only leaving one Safety deep because they don't respect Drew's ability to hit the WRs on the outside (And rightfully so).

He said it in the post game pod with Fortuna, in the II pod and in the piece on Monday in The Athletic.

The book is out on Pyne now: Drop eight into coverage, and he won’t able to work through his progressions with the extra defender in coverage. The past three weeks, Pyne is 3 of 14 for 29 yards and an interception when the opposition drops eight. His interception, intended for quadruple-covered Michael Mayer, was against drop eight. But so too was his overthrow of Braden Lenzy against Stanford. Pyne’s two completions against drop eight versus Syracuse came on a checkdown to Chris Tyree in the first quarter and an 11-yard completion to Deion Colzie in the fourth.

 

[ulukinatme]

We probably shouldn't be throwing into Drop Eight regardless, not unless it's a safe underneath route. 14 plays in 3 games isn't that much though. In 211 plays you're looking at 6.6% chance they're doing that. If it's 3rd and 10+ and they're dropping 8 you're probably not picking up the first with most QBs slinging it anyway. Your best bet is either a Draw or something to get a bunch of yards hopefully and either make it a manageable 4th and short or Punt it away.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Pyne just needs to discover the check-down. Defenses can't drop 8 on 3rd and long, double Mayer, and prevent Estime or Diggs from getting a short pass in the back-field with a bunch of green in front of them to make something happen.