Russia Invades Ukraine

drayer54

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I love seeing the lib posters claiming the shale revolution for Obama and pretending that the Biden admin hasn't taken every step and nomination possible to hinder American oil/gas. Biden used his pen to stop Keystone and promote Nordstream and has taken action on behalf of his green new deal team to hinder American drilling. It's undeniable. When Joe wants more production- he looks to OPEC and terrorist nations, not Houston.

To be fair- the American oil and gas industry is flipping the bird right back at him. Every O&G co out there right now is saying the same thing- stay disciplined. Meaning, we can make money on price, not volume. That's different than before. Nobody is drilling more right now because it is either tough/impossible to do in blue states or under Biden's FERC/pen. They have no price certainty to invest because oil futures drop rapidly and they can't even hedge far right here. Keystone is symbolic of Biden's failure- but yes, only a smaller portion of the flow. I can't imagine "anyone with a functioning brain" defending opening nordstream and shutting keystone.

Cackalacky2.0 said:
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Russia needs no legitimate reason to do anything when they live in their own reality. Everyone is already isolating them and feeding ammo to their opponents.
Cackalacky2.0 said:
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LOVE to see more of this. Terrible week for the Rusky AF.
 
drayer54

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Cackalacky2.0 said:
Imo there is a profit motive in there as well. Why increase production when you can just raise the price at current production levels and say it is anything but us not wanting to increase production.
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O&G doesn't determine the price. They sell at market. Market is typically supply and demand, and not really the result of POTUS unless he dumps his ass on the supply part. Every O&G CEO is using the word discipline 100 times a day right now.
 
Irish du Nord

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drayer54 said:
I love seeing the lib posters claiming the shale revolution for Obama and pretending that the Biden admin hasn't taken every step and nomination possible to hinder American oil/gas. Biden used his pen to stop Keystone and promote Nordstream and has taken action on behalf of his green new deal team to hinder American drilling. It's undeniable. When Joe wants more production- he looks to OPEC and terrorist nations, not Houston.

To be fair- the American oil and gas industry is flipping the bird right back at him. Every O&G co out there right now is saying the same thing- stay disciplined. Meaning, we can make money on price, not volume. That's different than before. Nobody is drilling more right now because it is either tough/impossible to do in blue states or under Biden's FERC/pen. They have no price certainty to invest because oil futures drop rapidly and they can't even hedge far right here. Keystone is symbolic of Biden's failure- but yes, only a smaller portion of the flow. I can't imagine "anyone with a functioning brain" defending opening nordstream and shutting keystone.


Russia needs no legitimate reason to do anything when they live in their own reality. Everyone is already isolating them and feeding ammo to their opponents.

LOVE to see more of this. Terrible week for the Rusky AF.
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But let’s be honest, they were living in their own reality long before everyone started isolating them.
 
irishog77

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Some talk out there that biden is willing to cut off oil imports from russia. That would be welcome, appreciated news.

The bad news is he is looking at VENEZUELA to fill the void.
 
IrishLax

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notredomer23 said:
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-Depends on what that means
-Hard pass
-Maybe
-Hard pass

I would not be surprised if what is ultimately negotiated is something like "West removes sanctions + Russia gets some territory" but 0.0% chance that they are going "neutral" or disbanding their military after all of this.
 
irishog77

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IrishLax said:
Don't we get like 1% of our oil from Russia? Why are we even talking about this? We are not energy dependent on them and, as a country, we've been moving more "energy independent" on a yearly basis.
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I have heard 3%. And I was sort of dismayed as well.

But first, think about it on a macro level. That 3% is still supposedly like 209,000 of crude oil and 500,000 of other petroleum. Per day. So, several hundred million, per day, to russia.

But if we're genuinely concerned about sanctions and hurting russia, then we should probably stop (or at least cut way down).
 
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The Crimea and separatist region demands are tough. Crimea is ethnically and linguistically over 80% Russian. Same with the separatist regions, and these regions have been in an awful war since 2014. On the other hand you’re essentially letting Russian do what they want and will surely do it again.

The constitution demand is a non-starter though. The more I watch how this is playing out, the only way this ends is with a Russian coup against Putin OR Ukraine collapses after what will be a months long siege of Kyiv.
 
Ndaccountant

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Cackalacky2.0 said:
Imo there is a profit motive in there as well. Why increase production when you can just raise the price at current production levels and say it is anything but us not wanting to increase production.
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That's a pretty narrow viewpoint that ignores the last 15 years, let along the last 2. Recall that oil consumption dropped by 25-30% with Covid 19 and storage was so full, people ended up paying for people to take delivery of contracts. Companies had to wager on whether to keep wells open or not. While cutting production seems like a logical step to take, it's not that simple. Drilling and pumping releases oil and gas. Stopping the drilling process may result in the clogging of the porous rock that enables drilling to succeed in the first place. Stopping and starting production may lead to the well production permanently being reduced by half, or even stop completely. To plug the well, they need to inject materials to stop the flow. To reopen, you need to drill thru that plug, undoing the work to plug in the first place. That is land based. Don't even get me started on the risks and costs on offshore. Yikes.

Point is, companies have a fiduciary duty. It's a big, expensive bet to make to expand production, both the part of actually physically getting the production going, along with the potential to shut it down again if prices fall. So it's not really about today prices as it is how long does it take to recoup their investments on the front and back end, compared to other investment opportunities. While investing in sustainable solutions is not big oil's bright spot at the moment, they have been ramping up, especially the Euro companies. It's really not a cut and dry answer and there is significant risk associated with attacking it right now and not knowing what support you may or may not get from Washington.
 
Irish#1

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IrishLax said:
Don't we get like 1% of our oil from Russia? Why are we even talking about this? We are not energy dependent on them and, as a country, we've been moving more "energy independent" on a yearly basis.
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Most reports I see range from 3% - 7%.
 
Te'o4Heisman

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Cackalacky2.0 said:
Nope. They arnt negotiating from a very strong position right now. "Complete withdrawal of Russia from pre 2014 borders and repair everything you broke and then we talk or we will make your efforts very very painful" should be the only response.
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Agree, but its going to be a hell of a challenge repairing all the families they broke.
 
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Cackalacky2.0 said:

I get documenting them but how will we hold him accountable?
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If he is indicted by the Hague wouldn’t that preclude travel to any of the countries that signed onto the international criminal court which is basically all of Europe
 
Irish#1

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Deloitte said Monday it was pulling out of Russia, joining the three other Big Four global accounting firms in exiting Russia.

Deloitte Global CEO Punit Renjen said in a statement Monday that the company “will separate our practice in Russia and Belarus from the global network of member firms. Deloitte will no longer operate in Russia and Belarus.”

Deloitte said that while it was making “the right decision,” the move will impact the roughly 3,000 employees it has in Russia and Belarus.

“Like others, we know our colleagues in Russia and Belarus have no voice in the actions of their government,” Renjen said. “We will support all impacted colleagues during this transition and do all we can to assist them during this extremely difficult time.”
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