Russia Invades Ukraine

[BobbyMac]

That sucks.

But maybe this is the official, "Nope... we ain't giving them our 29 MiG's" but they do it anyways for 50 more F-35's / F-16's.

 

[IrishLax]

They own the southern coast. Odessa is going to fall. Do you know what happens to cities when they get surrounded? Cities require food and supplies.

People have tried to paint a rosy picture like Ukraine is winning. They arent. They continue to grow more isolated. Things are getting worse for them and will likely continue to get worse. Literally their only hope is they hold out long enough for the Russian people or military to take drastic steps.

They’re certainly not “winning” but they also aren’t at the point of imminent defeat yet either. You cannot box them in on the western flank without establishing a literal blockade that is hundreds of miles long… doable, but they’re nowhere close to doing it yet. They basically need to “conquer” Ukraine within 2-3 months or their economy will have collapsed before they got the job done and they won’t be able to finance the war. Even after that, you risk having to deal with a permanent insurgency if you leave behind any kind of military presence.

Their best bet is probably to kill Zelensky and negotiate surrender with his successor. Short of that, I imagine they will go for some sort of face saving ceasefire in ~2 months.

 

[NorthDakota]

They’re certainly not “winning” but they also aren’t at the point of imminent defeat yet either. You cannot box them in on the western flank without establishing a literal blockade that is hundreds of miles long… doable, but they’re nowhere close to doing it yet. They basically need to “conquer” Ukraine within 2-3 months or their economy will have collapsed before they got the job done and they won’t be able to finance the war. Even after that, you risk having to deal with a permanent insurgency if you leave behind any kind of military presence.

Their best bet is probably to kill Zelensky and negotiate surrender with his successor. Short of that, I imagine they will go for some sort of face saving ceasefire in ~2 months.

I dont think you are wrong. Apologies if it seems like that. But the western effort at making things sound fine there is absolutely silly. If Washington DC was surrounded I wouldn't expect people to think things were going well for the US military.

My money is on the Rus winning, but with a lot more bodybags than they anticipated. Whats happening there is tragic and God bless all the parents losing their sons.

 

[calvegas04]

I have no idea if Chechens have been a difference maker or not....but Ukraine has been falling pretty steadily the last several days.

Falling as in retaking cities and russia being unable to advance other then in parts of southern Ukraine? A good portion of Russia's troops don't want to be in Ukraine fighting or they don't even know they are in Ukraine. The russian troops that want to be there are just shooting civilians.

 

[NorthDakota]

Falling as in retaking cities and russia being unable to advance other then in parts of southern Ukraine? A good portion of Russia's troops don't want to be in Ukraine fighting or they don't even know they are in Ukraine. The russian troops that want to be there are just shooting civilians.

I'm sure there are bad actors. Frankly the entire Russian invasion is sorta the definition of being a bad actor. But pretending Russia isn't making gains is straight up lying lol.

 

[BilboBaggins]

Big fan of Stephen Kotkin's books on Stalin, and his insights on Russian history. His take on the war is worth the time IMO

TL;DR: Kotkin, like just about everyone I've read, gives Russia about a 0% chance of successfully occupying Ukraine in the long term. But he fears Putin will just "smash" the country and annex the Black Sea coastline to make Ukraine landlocked and economically crippled.

 

[drayer54]

Oil is flirting with $130/bbl.

 

[INLaw]

No end in sight on the oil prices. Reality is going to punch the green dream right in the jaw and probably this week

 

[BilboBaggins]

No end in sight on the oil prices. Reality is going to punch the green dream right in the jaw and probably this week

Not really sure how anyone with a functioning brain stem equates temporary gas prices with the merits of green energy.

 

[drayer54]

Ahh yes, the old you must have no brain if you don’t share my narrow world view.

 

[NorthDakota]

Not really sure how anyone with a functioning brain stem equates temporary gas prices with the merits of green energy.

Ummm "temporary" lol. What

 

[Bishop2b5]

No end in sight on the oil prices. Reality is going to punch the green dream right in the jaw and probably this week

Oh man, if we only had our own oil and some sort of way to get it to us, like a pipeline or something. That'd be way cool.

 

[TorontoGold]

Oh man, if we only had our own oil and some sort of way to get it to us, like a pipeline or something. That'd be way cool.

This isn't rollercoaster tycoon, you can't snap your fingers and *poof* pipeline.

 

[Bishop2b5]

This isn't rollercoaster tycoon, you can't snap your fingers and *poof* pipeline.

And if the Obama and Biden administrations hadn't each cancelled it, it would be completed or close to it by now. We're now paying for those short-sighted mistakes.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Pumping more oil, building more pipelines, encouraging alternative energy sources can all be part of the solution. What we can’t afford to do is sacrifice one over the other to score political points. Not unless we want to fund great countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia.

 

[Bishop2b5]

Pumping more oil, building more pipelines, encouraging alternative energy sources can all be part of the solution. What we can’t afford to do is sacrifice one over the other to score political points. Not unless we want to fund great countries such as Saudi’s Arabia, Iran and Russia.

I'm all for encouraging solar, wind, and etc. to add to our energy production. I'm very much in favor of nuclear, which is probably the safest of all. I'm very much in favor of supplying as much of our own oil as possible from US or Canadian sources, lessening our reliance on very unreliable foreign sources. As you say, why fund the Saudis, Russians, or any other less than admirable supplier? It makes us economically vulnerable, as we're witnessing now.

 

[NorthDakota]

This isn't rollercoaster tycoon, you can't snap your fingers and *poof* pipeline.

You aren't wrong. But you can always not shut it down before you need it. Biden and his people sound clueless regarding energy right now.

They haven't done anything to help energy right now and they deserve to get metaphorically nuked for it. Which they likely will.

 

[TorontoGold]

And if the Obama and Biden administrations hadn't each cancelled it, it would be completed or close to it by now. We're now paying for those short-sighted mistakes.

Which magical construction company do you know that would be able to have taken an 8% finished project to 100% and fully functional from January 2021 to now? There isn't one. You can certainly place blame on Obama, and then maybe some blame may be placed on the following 4 years after him which is odd you missed a name in there. No secret why but oh well.

You aren't wrong. But you can always not shut it down before you need it. Biden and his people sound clueless regarding energy right now.

They haven't done anything to help energy right now and they deserve to get metaphorically nuked for it. Which they likely will.

I don't think you make the investment into building it like all the parties involved did and then go "nah". Like what a colossal fuck up, if it permit stands on Day 1 seems ridiculous to go back on it later.

 

[Bishop2b5]

Which magical construction company do you know that would be able to have taken an 8% finished project to 100% and fully functional from January 2021 to now? There isn't one. You can certainly place blame on Obama, and then maybe some blame may be placed on the following 4 years after him which is odd you missed a name in there. No secret why but oh well.



I don't think you make the investment into building it like all the parties involved did and then go "nah". Like what a colossal fuck up, if it permit stands on Day 1 seems ridiculous to go back on it later.

Why start at January 2021 and ignore the 6 previous years? I said if both Biden AND Obama hadn't shut it down, it would be nearly complete now. Obama's administration denied the owners a permit in 2015 after much of the construction had already started, with Obama stating, "The State Department has decided that the Keystone XL Pipeline would not serve the national interest of the United States. I agree with that decision." How exactly would it NOT serve the interests of the US??? Sure would be serving our national interests right about now to have it, wouldn't it?

Odd I missed a name in there? You mean the president who APPROVED the pipeline's construction? Why would I have included Trump in a complaint about politicians who stopped the pipeline's construction??? In 2017, shortly after taking office, Trump issued a presidential permit approving construction. US District Judge Brian Morris, an Obama appointee, blocked the permit issued by the Trump administration.

In January 2021, shortly after taking office, Biden signed an executive order again revoking the permit for the pipeline.

So yeah, nobody expects that the pipeline could've been completed since January 2021. That's not the issue. It's that it could've been completed or been very close to completion if they'd been working on it since 2015 if Obama hadn't stopped construction.

 

[NDFAN420]

Opinion | The Cancellation of Mother Russia Is Underway (Published 2022)

China is the one country that might have the power to stop Putin.

www-nytimes-com.translate.goog

Best column by Friedman in over 20 years. (the only good one?)

2/3 of Russian commercial airliners aren't owned by Russia, but are leased from some Irish company and will be repossessed by the end of March. Boeing and Airbus won't supply parts even if they aren't returned. Domestic flights will be curtailed and then canceled. Russia spans 11 time zones...

 

[NDFAN420]

Who is Donny? I am confused.

That's great that you have experience dealing with Russians and evidence of dealing with Russians. I have no idea what the latter means. Is English your first language?

My point is that you have no frame of reference here Donny. You're like a child who wanders into the middle of a movie...

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

'Little Evidence' Keystone Pipeline Would Level Prices Despite GOP Claims

James Glynn, of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, said the Keystone Pipeline capacity was less than one-tenth of Russian oil exports.

www.newsweek.com

Insana: Energy prices are soaring, but the Keystone Pipeline wouldn’t have helped ease the pressure

It's highly likely that energy prices will remain elevated for some time to come.

www.cnbc.com

I don’t want to let some additional info get in the way of a good narrative by the defenders of the faith, but, in reality, USs policy under Obama and Biden has been weaning itself off of imported oil and increasing domestic to achieve energy independence. Glad our conservative brethren finally accepting that per current social media talking points. Keystone would be a small percentage of the total imports from Canada and the increase in local shale production more than makes up for any loss of the keystone. Obama NEVER gets credit for dramatically increasing local production while simultaneously decreasing foreign imports. Should he?

Having said that, let’s rewind the videotape to 2014 when Saudi Arabia decided that America’s resurgence as the world’s largest energy producer eclipsed the kingdom’s power in the oil-producing world.

The Saudis, even amid grumbling from other OPEC members, decided to flood the world market with oil and send crude prices from a 2014 peak of more than $100 per barrel to roughly $55 within a matter of months.

The Saudis – once the “swing producer” in the oil world – moved to regain that position and lost market share by making it too expensive for U.S. frackers to continue drilling for additional supplies.

Russia joined in the action by increasing its own output as the desire to disrupt U.S. shale production kicked in.

Still, U.S. production continued to grow all the way into 2020, when U.S. crude oil output reached a modern peak of more than 12 million barrels per day.

The U.S. was effectively in control of global energy supplies, supplanting Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer and Russia as the world’s largest producer of natural gas.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/keystone-xl-u-s-oil-supplies-pipeline-alberta-biden-1.5882313

I think I know what would lower gas prices… increases production from the already approved leases. At least that is what is being said.

 

[Irish#1]

Opinion | The Cancellation of Mother Russia Is Underway (Published 2022)

China is the one country that might have the power to stop Putin.

www-nytimes-com.translate.goog

Best column by Friedman in over 20 years. (the only good one?)

2/3 of Russian commercial airliners aren't owned by Russia, but are leased from some Irish company and will be repossessed by the end of March. Boeing and Airbus won't supply parts even if they aren't returned. Domestic flights will be curtailed and then canceled. Russia spans 11 time zones...

You have to wonder if Putin will not allow them to fly back?

 

[Irish#1]

Russia is now saying they will let refugees leave as long as it's into Russia.

 

[Irish#1]

I dont think you are wrong. Apologies if it seems like that. But the western effort at making things sound fine there is absolutely silly. If Washington DC was surrounded I wouldn't expect people to think things were going well for the US military.

My money is on the Rus winning, but with a lot more bodybags than they anticipated. Whats happening there is tragic and God bless all the parents losing their sons.

From NBC

Around 95 percent of the Russian forces that had amassed around Ukraine are now inside the country, according to a senior U.S. defense official.

Sadly you're probably right unless some type of "major" assistance happens soon.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

 

[irishff1014]

'Little Evidence' Keystone Pipeline Would Level Prices Despite GOP Claims

James Glynn, of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, said the Keystone Pipeline capacity was less than one-tenth of Russian oil exports.

www.newsweek.com

Insana: Energy prices are soaring, but the Keystone Pipeline wouldn’t have helped ease the pressure

It's highly likely that energy prices will remain elevated for some time to come.

www.cnbc.com

I don’t want to let some additional info get in the way of a good narrative by the defenders of the faith. In reality, USs policy under Obama and Biden has been weaning itself off of imported oil and increasing domestic to achieve energy independence. Glad our conservative brethren finally accepting that per current social media talking points. Keystone would be a small percentage of the total imports from Canada and the increase in local shale production more than makes up for any loss of the keystone. Obama NEVER gets credit for that. Should he?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/keystone-xl-u-s-oil-supplies-pipeline-alberta-biden-1.5882313

I think I know what would lower gas prices… increases production from the already approved leases. At least that is what is being said.

I read somewhere that 5 refineries were shut down during covid due to the low production. That has a lot to do with it as well. I know nothing about them. I don't know if you just hit the breakers and turn the plant back one or not. But the Government knew this was going to happen.

But we will NEVER know if the government allowed the plants to reopen or if it was the industry not opening them.

 

[PerthDomer]

The US is a net oil exporter. The issue is Russia supplies a large amount of oil exports. Our fracking wells can bring an extra million barrels per day in the short/medium term. That would maybe take a little bit of the edge off of this. We really need the Saudis to get on board. Only they have the excess capacity to deal with this.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

I read somewhere that 5 refineries were shut down during covid due to the low production. That has a lot to do with it as well. I know nothing about them. I don't know if you just hit the breakers and turn the plant back one or not. But the Government knew this was going to happen.

But we will NEVER know if the government allowed the plants to reopen or if it was the industry not opening them.

Imo there is a profit motive in there as well. Why increase production when you can just raise the price at current production levels and say it is anything but us not wanting to increase production.