Path to the CFP?

[Dizzyphil]

I blame ND for losing to Cincinnati. They ruined everyone else complaining about ND walking into the CFP on a cupcake trail. “But Toledo” would have been cried in the papers of Columbus and Waco.

This.... if you want to be big boys, win big-boy games. Simple, the Irish will be playing outside the playoffs and need to win big whomever and wherever they play.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

I blame ND for losing to Cincinnati. They ruined everyone else complaining about ND walking into the CFP on a cupcake trail. “But Toledo” would have been cried in the papers of Columbus and Waco.

Yes there is that too. No arguments from me there. When given a shit schedule, go through it unblemished.


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[IrishLax]

FiveThirtyEights playoff model has ND pretty much drawing dead at this point. It even predicts Baylor would get in over the Irish if they win the B12.

I blame North Carolina and USC for being flaming bags of shit. They absolutely ruined the schedule. These other teams all have at least one marquee victory. We dont.


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For what it’s worth, they drastically overweight the “conference champ” thing in their model and basically evaluate ND as a Group of Five team that did not make their conference championship game. The past two times that ND was a playoff lock they basically had projections that thought we had a less than 50% chance to make the playoffs.

 

[NDRock]

I'm not busting on your post here.... this is what I don't get sometimes with BK.. IF ND was to get in, and had to play GA..... trot Coan out there on the first series... then run him off the field as soon as he gets out there and run Buchner out there and run an option, sweep, draw or screen to Mayer/KW..... there are ways to confuse or jerk the D to make GA or whoever to change their defensive scheme or even burn a TO just to figure out what the hell is going on.

Holtz was really, really good at doing that.... he would line up in the goal-line figuration/ line-up at mid-field on 2nd and 2-3 and then do a slant to the TE for 25-30 yards.

He’s not done a good job when coming in as an underdog. I’ve been disappointed with our game plans our last two playoff appearances. Both times we just lined up and “played our game”. Sometimes you need to embrace the underdog role and go old school Boise State. Try something.

 

[Dizzyphil]

He’s not done a good job when coming in as an underdog. I’ve been disappointed with our game plans our last two playoff appearances. Both times we just lined up and “played our game”. Sometimes you need to embrace the underdog role and go old school Boise State. Try something.

Agreed..... ND has made some serious progress in the last four to five years... but sometimes, you need to put in a 'sour grape' to f&%k up the defense...

 

[LOVEMYIRISH]

2 loss bama is not going to the playoff.

I wouldn't bet on that. If they lose by 3 points or less, they WILL get in.
(If they win, they are in and UGA will be in too.)

 

[BeatSC]

I wouldn't bet on that. If they lose by 3 points or less, they WILL get in.
(If they win, they are in and UGA will be in too.)

2 loss Bama does NOT get in over one loss ND. Bama is trending down ND trending up. Bama had a Schitt show with Auburn. Unacceptable m, it seems you are saying this despite the reality is that it won’t happen. I think you are keeping the debate alive.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

2 loss Bama does NOT get in over one loss ND. Bama is trending down ND trending up. Bama had a Schitt show with Auburn. Unacceptable m, it seems you are saying this despite the reality is that it won’t happen. I think you are keeping the debate alive.

I'll say it again, due to lack of signature wins and recency bias 11-1 ND will be more comparable to 11-2 Bama, 11-2 Baylor, or 12-1 cincy than they will to 13-0 Cincy, 12-1 Okie St, or 12-1 Michigan. If we get the chaos we need (2 losses by the group of Bama, Michigan, Cincy, Okie St) we STILL aren't a shoe in for the playoffs.

 

[Irish#1]

A 2 loss Bama won't be in the playoffs. No one on that committee wants to take all the crap they would receive putting them in over several of 1 loss teams. The only caveat is if they already know the expanded playoff will get approved for next year. Then they can come back and tells us how they listened to us and expanded the playoffs to avoid these type of situations.

Iowa is built to beat scUM, so don't discount them yet. UGA is on a mission. This is the year they kick the door down with Alabama. I have no clue if Houston is capable of beating Cincy, but with only one loss, it seems they have a decent chance. Baylor's defense should give them a shot against OKS. The door is still open for the playoffs which is what we should strive for.

 

[BeatSC]

I'll say it again, due to lack of signature wins and recency bias 11-1 ND will be more comparable to 11-2 Bama, 11-2 Baylor, or 12-1 cincy than they will to 13-0 Cincy, 12-1 Okie St, or 12-1 Michigan. If we get the chaos we need (2 losses by the group of Bama, Michigan, Cincy, Okie St) we STILL aren't a shoe in for the playoffs.

Well let’s see how the week proceeds and whoever is wrong can issue the apology in all caps in this thread for selling us short. Don’t think Bama is getting any signature wins either nor is the final result of their competitions record anything to write home about just like ours. We are both living in teams with a legacy but not a good team this season. Every team we’ve played this year had a better offense than that Auburn team fielded last weekend. Over half of our opponents had a bye week before facing us. Not our fault that what should have been a murderers row of opponents turned into punks. FSU, UNC, USC, VT, VA,Purdue, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, even GT rose up to beat good teams this season. Even Navy took Cincy to the wire.
after last weeks pathetic game by Bama they no longer pass the eye test like they would in earlier years.

2 Loss Bama is out!

 

[BeatSC]

I wouldn't bet on that. If they lose by 3 points or less, they WILL get in.
(If they win, they are in and UGA will be in too.)

board apologies from you too!!

 

[BeatSC]

Is it time to create a poll on this question?

 

[Free Manera]

I think with A&M losing and a shitty Auburn team taking them into 4 OTs, Bama is out if they lose.

However the whole Bama discussion is moot if OK State, Cincy, and Michigan all win. We're still on the outside looking in.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Current lines:

Georgia vs Bama: Georgia -6.5
OK State vs Baylor: OK State -4
Cincy vs Houston: Cincy -10.5
Michigan vs Iowa: UM -10.5

I hate to say it, but Georgia, Ok State, Cincy, and Michigan will most likely be the Final Four. ND first team out.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

There is one thing we can all agree on - there is no path for ND in the playoffs which doesn't include incessant bit*hing and moaning by fans of other teams.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

I think with A&M losing and a shitty Auburn team taking them into 4 OTs, Bama is out if they lose.

However the whole Bama discussion is moot if OK State, Cincy, and Michigan all win. We're still on the outside looking in.

Unfortunately this is the most likely scenario. However, I'd like to see what the committee does with 5 and 6 in this case. Would they slot Bama in front of us or behind?

 

[IrishRazor82]

Current lines:

Georgia vs Bama: Georgia -6.5
OK State vs Baylor: OK State -4
Cincy vs Houston: Cincy -10.5
Michigan vs Iowa: UM -10.5

I hate to say it, but Georgia, Ok State, Cincy, and Michigan will most likely be the Final Four. ND first team out.

I wonder what the parlay odds would be if you bet on all 3 of OK St, Michigan, and Cinci to win straight up.

The hope lies in the aggregate.

 

[pumpdog20]

ESPN playoff predictor has following: Georgia, Ok St, Houston, Michigan win:

Georgia
Michigan
ND
Ok St

Georgia, Ok St, Cincy, Michigan win:

Georgia
Michigan
Cincy
Ok St

ND


This makes no sense to me.

 

[GATTACA!]

Current lines:

Georgia vs Bama: Georgia -6.5
OK State vs Baylor: OK State -4
Cincy vs Houston: Cincy -10.5
Michigan vs Iowa: UM -10.5

I hate to say it, but Georgia, Ok State, Cincy, and Michigan will most likely be the Final Four. ND first team out.

So we need one upset. Not too unrealistic, especially this season.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I wonder what the parlay odds would be if you bet on all 3 of OK St, Michigan, and Cinci to win straight up.

The hope lies in the aggregate.

+125 on Draft Kings

 

[GATTACA!]

+125 on Draft Kings

Maybe that’s the play. Put $100 on that parlay and then I can be happy either way lol.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Maybe that’s the play. Put $100 on that parlay and then I can be happy either way lol.

lol I thought about the same thing.

 

[NDohio]

So we need one upset. Not too unrealistic, especially this season.

But if that upset is Bama over GA then we are still out...

 

[ClausentoTate]

FiveThirtyEights playoff model has ND pretty much drawing dead at this point. It even predicts Baylor would get in over the Irish if they win the B12.


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I was at the TCU-Baylor game... it was laughable. TCU is absolutely terrible this year and that's from a fan and season ticket holder. They also got drubbed the first time against Okie State. If anything the score is deceiving. Two losses, one to a coachless, unranked team? Forget over us - but over potentially a 2 loss Ohio State or Alabama? No way.

If the committee really thinks a conference championship winner should get in over others no matter what, just put that as a criteria. If it expanded to 8 I would 100% be ok with that as a criteria if there are at least 2 at-large bids, but with 4 it's not reasonable.

 

[irish4ever]

,

So we need one upset. Not too unrealistic, especially this season.

Not if it's Bama upsetting Georgia. Georgia is going to the playoffs win or lose. Unfortunately, the Meatchickens aren't going to lose to Iowa (that frickin' sucks), so it's down to Ok State or Cincy chocking for the Irish to have a shot (assuming Georgia does take care of business).

 

[BeatSC]

There is one thing we can all agree on - there is no path for ND in the playoffs which doesn't include incessant bit*hing and moaning by fans of other teams.

That would make getting in all the sweeter…..F em!

 

[BeatSC]

So we need one upset. Not too unrealistic, especially this season.

Yeah! But the upset we end up getting is Bama over GA!

F me!!!

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Seems pretty simple; we need 2/4 of UGA, Houston, Iowa and Baylor to win in order to make it. Anything less than that, we are on the outside looking in.

 

[ThePiombino]

Are we confident the committee will value a 1-loss B12 champ over us? Is it possible the only thing we really NEED this week is for 1 of:

• Georgia win
• Cinci loss
• Iowa win

 

[RDU Irish]

Seems pretty simple; we need 2/4 of UGA, Houston, Iowa and Baylor to win in order to make it. Anything less than that, we are on the outside looking in.

Agree - I don't like any of the non-UGA three to win individually but collectively the parlay odds seem about right to me. I think UGA spanks Bama pretty good - going to take that -6.5 for sure. Also like Iowa +10.5 - Michigan is about as high as they have been in a long time and should be very flat on Saturday. Iowa looked like crap for 3 quarters so hopefully rebounds - don't like them to win but I think they keep it close. Ditto with Houston. Baylor is just like most Big 12 games, coin flip.

I think we get Ohio State or Bama in a bowl if we don't make playoffs. I don't know the tie ins but I know the powers that be want to see one of those match ups. Lots of starters sit for the draft which turns equal parts blessing and curse for us.