Nov 13 | Virginia

[Armyirish47]

My concern is our offense not our defense. You have to accept that our defense is going to give up 35+ points given UVA’s style of offense and talent… but you have to expect to score 40+ on them because of their defense. Off a bye week, they will have wrinkles on defense so it comes down to execution. I worry that we will score in the 30s and that won’t be enough. I was extremely disappointed in what I saw from Rees/Coan and their ability to attack drop 8 zone coverage against an unathletic Navy team. Have to think every opponent going forward will show us that look on 3rd down.

I don't expect our defense to do that at all. Virginia this year by the numbers:

Game 1: 43 points against William & Mary...yawn
Game 2: 42 points against Illinois. # 61 in FEI after week 8, up to 49 in SP+ after making big strides throughout the season
Game 3: 39 points against UNC in a loss. LOL.
Game 4: 17 points against Wake Forest...at home....in a loss...oof. Wake # 51 in FEI after week 8, # 76 SP+
Game 5: 30 points against Miami. # 46 and # 43 in FEI and SP.
Game 6: 34 points against Louisville. #49 and # 74.
Game 7: 48 points against Duke. # 96 and # 102 but also it was homecoming for the notoriously awesome Virginia crowds.
Game 8: 49 points BYU in a classic shootout against #75 and # 70.

Notre Dame is #21 and # 15 in the same metrics mentioned above, so while they have scored more than 35 against 4 actual opponents those defenses have ranged from mediocre to awful. None of those teams have our pass rush and Armstrong was at full strength. Sooooo 35+ is a given? Nah fam.

Unless Virginia's defensive wrinkle is "find a whole new roster" I like our chances against what will be arguably the worst defense we will see all year (other than Navy and their vaunted drop 8).

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I think the bigger question is whether or not KH is back for this one. Any word on that?

 

[Dale]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/isdupdate/status/1457756275756908545?s=21[/TWEET]

Didnt know this was really considered a personnel “move” but I guess this is all that comes of his post game comment

Said Mayer, Kyren and Tyree as well like they have been.

 

[IrishLax]

I think the bigger question is whether or not KH is back for this one. Any word on that?

I would not expect him to play the rest of the regular season, and then he may play in a bowl game depending on circumstance.

 

[zelezo vlk]

"BK on Tyler Buchner's development: We're at point where role continues to expand even more than what we've seen.

I think this week, we open it up even more."

Man I really hope that's the case.

 

[stpeteirish]

I think the bigger question is whether or not KH is back for this one. Any word on that?

Kelly was just asked this in the presser. Basically dodged the question but said evaluation will be finalized today.

Just guessing like everybody else but I wouldn't be surprised if we get this bs every week. He's opting out but the team won't admit it. Maybe they hope he'll change his mind.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I would not expect him to play the rest of the regular season, and then he may play in a bowl game depending on circumstance.

Kelly was just asked this in the presser. Basically dodged the question but said evaluation will be finalized today.

Just guessing like everybody else but I wouldn't be surprised if we get this bs every week. He's opting out but the team won't admit it. Maybe they hope he'll change his mind.

Thanks fellas, I agree it seems like he is likely opting out, barring a miracle playoff appearance. Can't say I blame him, either.

 

[IrishLax]

I also don't think it's as simple as him "opting out." I'm not saying Kelly lied about his initial injury, but he might've been misinformed. An ortho I know said that the injury -- as reported -- made literally no sense.

If it was a low grade sprain or a minor meniscus injury his timetable would optimistically be 2-4 weeks which would put him out through basically the end of the season regardless of whether he wanted to play or not. People close to the situation have been cagey but reading between the lines it basically seemed like they expected him to be out with injury through the end of the season, and then he'd make a determination on whether he wants to play in a bowl game or not. Gut feel would be that he'd absolutely play in the playoffs, might play in a major bowl game, and would likely opt out if Notre Dame shits the bed to close the year.

 

[Irish#1]

My concern is our offense not our defense. You have to accept that our defense is going to give up 35+ points given UVA’s style of offense and talent… but you have to expect to score 40+ on them because of their defense. Off a bye week, they will have wrinkles on defense so it comes down to execution. I worry that we will score in the 30s and that won’t be enough. I was extremely disappointed in what I saw from Rees/Coan and their ability to attack drop 8 zone coverage against an unathletic Navy team. Have to think every opponent going forward will show us that look on 3rd down.

UVA has built their offensive resume on a pretty weak schedule and against some lousy defenses. We have our issues on defense, but our front 7 are better than anything they've faced to date. I'll play devils advocate on offense. Coan looked like a deer in some headlights against that Navy front, but now that he and Tommy have seen it, I expect both will be better prepared and react much better.

He said he's 100% better, but he didn't say he was 100% healthy. Flak jacket or not, bruised ribs are going to hurt when you get hit.

 

[Irish#1]

I also don't think it's as simple as him "opting out." I'm not saying Kelly lied about his initial injury, but he might've been misinformed. An ortho I know said that the injury -- as reported -- made literally no sense.

If it was a low grade sprain or a minor meniscus injury his timetable would optimistically be 2-4 weeks which would put him out through basically the end of the season regardless of whether he wanted to play or not. People close to the situation have been cagey but reading between the lines it basically seemed like they expected him to be out with injury through the end of the season, and then he'd make a determination on whether he wants to play in a bowl game or not. Gut feel would be that he'd absolutely play in the playoffs, might play in a major bowl game, and would likely opt out if Notre Dame shits the bed to close the year.

Makes sense. Whatever the injury 2-4 weeks is the norm for something minor like you mentioned. I really expected him to be out the rest of the season once he couldn't play against UNC.

 

[IRISHMAN]

My concern is our offense not our defense. You have to accept that our defense is going to give up 35+ points given UVA’s style of offense and talent… but you have to expect to score 40+ on them because of their defense. Off a bye week, they will have wrinkles on defense so it comes down to execution. I worry that we will score in the 30s and that won’t be enough. I was extremely disappointed in what I saw from Rees/Coan and their ability to attack drop 8 zone coverage against an unathletic Navy team. Have to think every opponent going forward will show us that look on 3rd down.

when navy was dropping 8 into coverage and only rushing 3 defenders i was thinking ND should be running the draw play with KW and take advantage of everyone dropping back.

 

[zelezo vlk]

Also, KH is gone. It doesn’t strike me as just a one-sided decision. ND wants to protect our future NFL asset. He will likely be our first top 10 pick since when?

2018

 

[IRISHMAN]

Also, KH is gone. It doesn’t strike me as just a one-sided decision. ND wants to protect our future NFL asset. He will likely be our first top 10 pick since when?

2018 draft nelson #6 and mcglinchey #9

 

[Crazy Balki]

So is this the best QB we see this season if Armstrong plays? What other weapons do they have on offense?

I'd say no.

Howell outplayed Armstrong when they faced on another, and when Howell is on, he's elite.

Armstrong, when healthy, makes some ridiculous plays, but the problem is that is both a good thing and a bad thing. He makes ridiculously good plays and he makes some ridiculously dumb decisions. There is absolutely zero chance that Armstrong will be close to 100% this week. He may play, but will need a flak jacket and considering the injury is on his throwing side, that's going to make throwing with power almost impossible, and it'll likely give him pause when trying to take off, because a big shot is going to knock him out of the game.

As for playmakers, there's nobody on par with London or Downs, but they've got guys at receiver. Wicks is a guy who is making a lot of big plays, averaging over 23 yards per catch and a TD per game (but again, the lack of quality defenses they've played is a factor here). But it's not gonna be like we can just focus on him and that limits the whole offense. They got guys who are good all over at receiver. Just not elite.

UVA also doesn't have a threat at RB like UNC had with Ty Chandler or even USC to an extent with Ingram. The focus should be entirely on the pass.

 

[Dizzyphil]

KH is done - Kiper Jr. in Mid Oct had him going overall number 2 in the first round.... that's BANK!

 

[IrishLax]

KH is done - Kiper Jr. in Mid Oct had him going overall number 2 in the first round.... that's BANK!

Mel Kiper also had JOK going mid-1st. I think one part of the calculus people need to be careful of is 1) you can get hurt doing anything, like the Florida QB who hurt his knee dancing in a hotel 2) it's nowhere close to a lock that Hamilton goes where some say he will, especially because safety can be an undervalued position. The difference between going 5th and going 15th is huge, and I don't think any of us can say whether playing additional game(s) post injury would help or hurt his stock. There seems to be prevailing wisdom that playing more is significant risk and can only hurt him and I'm not sure that's true. I'm sure that's what his agent is advising him in order to protect his payday, but we'll see.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

"BK on Tyler Buchner's development: We're at point where role continues to expand even more than what we've seen.

I think this week, we open it up even more."

Man I really hope that's the case.

Me too. For one thing, that will solve the drop 8 problem.

 

[Irish#1]

With so many games left to play, draft projections at this time are a guess. You have a few teams you know will be drafting high, but the order is unknown. Jax is #1, but with TL they won't go with a QB and it's highly unlikely they would take a safety at #1. They would probably trade the pick, drop a few positions and then maybe pick someone like KH. I have no idea what their needs are at the moment. Teams already know what they have in Hamilton. Playing any additional games would only show that he's recovered, but so would the combine. Why risk it?

 

[Luckylucci]

Everything Brian Kelly Said Ahead of Virginia on the Road (247sports.com)

Here's a link to 247's rundown of Kelly's Presser from today.

 

[EvilleIrish]

So is it basically a done deal that KH is out again for this game?

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

So is it basically a done deal that KH is out again for this game?

Nobody has officially ruled it out, including BK, but I'd be shocked if he played. Definitely wouldn't get our hopes up.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Random question: Is Jayden Thomas healthy? I wonder if he might get some snaps here late with the thin depth at WR.

Yes; BK mentioned him in his presser that he will be elevated from the practice squad and will serve as the "next man in" if another unfortunate injury will occur.

He basically said don't expect to see him much but they're getting him up to speed this week just in case.

 

[Irishize]

I’ve seen the point spread for this game as low as 4.5. I think it opened at -6.5. If Armstrong wasn’t going to play, that would be a double digit spread IMO. He’ll play just a matter of how limited he’ll be. Get ready for the Willis Reed narrative if Fowler/Herbstreit get the call.

 

[DONTH8]

I’ve seen the point spread for this game as low as 4.5. I think it opened at -6.5. If Armstrong wasn’t going to play, that would be a double digit spread IMO. He’ll play just a matter of how limited he’ll be. Get ready for the Willis Reed narrative if Fowler/Herbstreit get the call.

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/EHansenNDI/status/1457846827831660547?s=20[/TWEET]

 

[Irishize]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/EHansenNDI/status/1457846827831660547?s=20[/TWEET]

Thank goodness! Thanks for the info!

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Thank goodness! Thanks for the info!

I actually like Fowler and Herbie, what's your beef? Just curious, not arguing haha

 

[Rockin’Irish]

I actually like Fowler and Herbie, what's your beef? Just curious, not arguing haha

I would say that there may be some PTSD from their call on the FSU game with Milton’s “comeback” vs. ND.

 

[Rockin’Irish]

I would say that there may be some PTSD from their call on the FSU game with Milton’s “comeback” vs. ND.

My error…….they didn’t call the FSU game……..pretend I wasn’t here……….

 

[Lepresean]

Herbie was doing some replays during the LSU vs. Bama game, they called it Herbie’s Clicker. It gave me headache. Instead of pausing the replay and explaining what was happening, he kept rewinding the first two seconds of the replay. It was awful.

Besides the replays during that games, I don’t have a problem with Herbie and Fowler during games. My complaint with Herbie arises with him being an OSU homer during other segments. I have come to expect this with every ESPN analyst. Don’t get me started on Desmond Howard.

 

[Irish#1]

Herbie was doing some replays during the LSU vs. Bama game, they called it Herbie’s Clicker. It gave me headache. Instead of pausing the replay and explaining what was happening, he kept rewinding the first two seconds of the replay. It was awful.

Besides the replays during that games, I don’t have a problem with Herbie and Fowler during games. My complaint with Herbie arises with him being an OSU homer during other segments. I have come to expect this with every ESPN analyst. Don’t get me started on Desmond Howard.

I don't find Herbie to be a homer at all. Now Desmond Howard on the other hand..........